Geno Staying put

[seahawksfan234]

View attachment 323091
Unless Geno blows everyone away, this is basically a 2 year contract.

$10M cap hit is much lower than I expected.

They may be looking to make a splash in FA.

Check the numbers for post-June 1st cut. If he plays like shit or the Seahawks draft a rookie QB that outplays him, they can technically get out of the contract with "just" $8.7m in dead money for 2024 and 2025.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I don't know if OTC's numbers are correct, but per their breakdown of the contract, we could cut him after this year (post June 1st) and this would be the cap implication:

2024: $8.7m dead cap, $22.5m cap savings
2025: $8.7m dead cap, $25m cap savings

Honestly this contract looks pretty good to me. If he replicates his 2022 performance, he'll be paid (IMO) less than he's worth with today's QB market. If he doesn't, we can get out of the contract without hamstringing ourselves too badly.

I know many didn't want to pay him this type of money, but IMO this is the best possible scenario for the Seahawks.

Heard the post June option doesn’t apply due to when guarantees apply or something like that.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

That's an insane contract Seattle's FO got away with.... I might have to bump this grade into the A range...

 

[flyerhawk]

Check the numbers for post-June 1st cut. If he plays like shit or the Seahawks draft a rookie QB that outplays him, they can technically get out of the contract with "just" $8.7m in dead money for 2024 and 2025.

Yeah we would just be splitting the dead money over 2 seasons.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

The cap hits for the new Geno Smith contract

Fans have been waiting all week to learn how much Geno Smith will cost the Seahawks.

www.fieldgulls.com

Of note, the Seahawks are able to walk away from the contract after just a single season, however, doing so would result in $17.4M in dead money in 2024. To head off the question before it is asked, it is not possible to reduce that dead cap hit through the use of a post-June 1 designation. The reason for that is that a post-June 1 designation may only be made after the start of the new league year in March, and by that time Smith’s 2024 base salary of $12.7M would have vested from guaranteed for injury only to fully guaranteed simply by virtue of being on the roster the Friday after the Super Bowl.

 

[JMR]

In theory, they could cut Geno after year one and save 13 million in cap space, but eating 17 million would be hard to swallow.

You get the $13M savings by having the $17M in dead cap. The choice is what the team feels more valuable for the 2024 season: having Geno Smith on the roster at the cost of $31M in cap space or not having him on the roster at a cost of $13M less.

Another option after the '23 season could be to add 1 more year to the deal and spread some of that '24 cap out a little bit. It's good to have some options & flexibility. The FO killed it with this deal.

 

[JMR]

I think it is possible that they take a QB with 1.5 but I think they only do it if they have a high degree of confidence that the QB could an elite QB, for whatever reason. If they think that, then I'm fine with them taking a QB.

Yeah, I still think it's unlikely to take a QB at 1.5. This time of year, I think the fans are always catching up to where the teams probably already were like 2 or 3 months ago in terms of projecting the draft. Some guys "rise" and "fall" on fan mocks based on info they are just now consuming that teams already had on their radar. For example, all this Anthony Richardson talk...teams probably didn't learn much more about him at the combine other than interviews, but the "experts" and fans are now talking about him as a top 5 pick. I just don't think NFL front offices move players around on their board a whole lot based on the underwear olympics results (again, maybe interviews aside).

But if you listened to Pete's recent interview, he sure sounds like he plans to go for a SB run this year.

Interesting discussion I had with my old man last night, who tends to enjoy the role of hot take guy when it comes to the Seahawks/sports -- told me he thinks Pete is in win now mode (a fair take) but then followed right behind that by predicting we would take a QB with our first pick. I asked him how picking a QB first supports a win now approach, and he said the QB could be installed as the starter for '24. That still doesn't make sense to me if we are trying to win now, but I am excited to see how it turns out.

 

[flyerhawk]

Yeah, I still think it's unlikely to take a QB at 1.5. This time of year, I think the fans are always catching up to where the teams probably already were like 2 or 3 months ago in terms of projecting the draft. Some guys "rise" and "fall" on fan mocks based on info they are just now consuming that teams already had on their radar. For example, all this Anthony Richardson talk...teams probably didn't learn much more about him at the combine other than interviews, but the "experts" and fans are now talking about him as a top 5 pick. I just don't think NFL front offices move players around on their board a whole lot based on the underwear olympics results (again, maybe interviews aside).

I do think some players move up dramatically at combine although, from what I've read, it is mainly because of interviews.

Interesting discussion I had with my old man last night, who tends to enjoy the role of hot take guy when it comes to the Seahawks/sports -- told me he thinks Pete is in win now mode (a fair take) but then followed right behind that by predicting we would take a QB with our first pick. I asked him how picking a QB first supports a win now approach, and he said the QB could be installed as the starter for '24. That still doesn't make sense to me if we are trying to win now, but I am excited to see how it turns out.

I think we take a QB in the 3rd or 4th round. 2nd is possible.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Heard the post June option doesn’t apply due to when guarantees apply or something like that.

Ahh okay. I read this breakdown this morning and thought it was pretty informative:

Analysis: Seahawks may have gotten better bargain on Geno Smith contract than first thought

Details of Geno Smith's new contract have only reiterated what a good deal this appears to be for the Seahawks, while still rewarding Smith with the kind of payday he’d never had previously in his 10 NFL seasons.

www.seattletimes.com

Looks like best case scenario, if he puts up the numbers he had this year he will be paid commensurately, worst case scenario it won't be crippling if the Seahawks need to move on from him.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Yeah we would just be splitting the dead money over 2 seasons.

Either way still looks like a best case scenario for the Seahawks.

I seem to be more pro-Geno than most here after being probably the most anti-Geno person here in the preseason, but I actually think this is a pretty fair deal for both sides. Honestly, I think if Geno hit the open market he would've got a lot more money from a desperate team willing to overpay him and spread it out over void years. I know it's an apples to oranges comparison, but after seeing the deal that Derek Carr got I was concerned we'd have to give Geno a similar contract.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Either way still looks like a best case scenario for the Seahawks.

I seem to be more pro-Geno than most here after being probably the most anti-Geno person here in the preseason, but I actually think this is a pretty fair deal for both sides. Honestly, I think if Geno hit the open market he would've got a lot more money from a desperate team willing to overpay him and spread it out over void years. I know it's an apples to oranges comparison, but after seeing the deal that Derek Carr got I was concerned we'd have to give Geno a similar contract.

There are some other details in the contract that increases the cost for Geno in 2024:

Based on the information we have we can project approximate cap hits for the years of the contract:

2023 — $10.1 million

2024 — $31.2 million ($46.2m if $15m of roster bonus escalators met in 2023)

2025 — $33.7 million ($48.7m if $15m of roster bonus escalators met in 2024)

If he hits the mark for roster bonus escalators in 2023 then Geno's cap hit increases to 46.2 in 2024 and then if he meets them again in 2024 his cap hit goes to 48.7 in 2025. How does everyone feel about that? Obviously, Geno would have to play great to hit those escalators but dang 46.2 million is no bargain.

 

[blstoker]

Heard the post June option doesn’t apply due to when guarantees apply or something like that.

Yeah, his 2024 salary would be guaranteed by post June 1. If he isn't just before the 5th day of the league year in 2024, his dead money increases from $17.4 million to 39.7 million. If Seattle parts ways with him, it'll have to be early in the offseason.

 

[Screamin12th]

I think the whole win now mode you all say Pete is in is nothing different than how he ALWAYS looks at the season. All this means is "we are going to try and play at our best and try to win" THATS ALL WIN NOW MEANS TO PETE!

Something he said like 4 years ago, You can retool and continue being in the thick of it every year. He believes that fully and tells his players that. This is all about motivation. You don't tell your guys "Hey we got a rebuild coming so we are going to suck".

UNLIKE a coach who is a rah rah guy that is always trying to inspire his players we are fans so don't fall into the "Well our teams coach says we are going for it so we must good". Hawks unless they hit on 5 of their first 6 picks might be a 4 win team. That defense is a straight up JOKE! They went from 28th worst in 2021 to 26th worst in 2022 and they played a easier schedule in 2022.

 

[flyerhawk]

I think the whole win now mode you all say Pete is in is nothing different than how he ALWAYS looks at the season. All this means is "we are going to try and play at our best and try to win" THATS ALL WIN NOW MEANS TO PETE!

Something he said like 4 years ago, You can retool and continue being in the thick of it every year. He believes that fully and tells his players that. This is all about motivation. You don't tell your guys "Hey we got a rebuild coming so we are going to suck".

UNLIKE a coach who is a rah rah guy that is always trying to inspire his players we are fans so don't fall into the "Well our teams coach says we are going for it so we must good". Hawks unless they hit on 5 of their first 6 picks might be a 4 win team. That defense is a straight up JOKE! They went from 28th worst in 2021 to 26th worst in 2022 and they played a easier schedule in 2022.

I don't think we need to hit on all our picks to turn our defense around. It was a young defense last year, and we still have free agency which they clearly plan to engage in

 

[flyerhawk]

There are some other details in the contract that increases the cost for Geno in 2024:

Based on the information we have we can project approximate cap hits for the years of the contract:

2023 — $10.1 million

2024 — $31.2 million ($46.2m if $15m of roster bonus escalators met in 2023)

2025 — $33.7 million ($48.7m if $15m of roster bonus escalators met in 2024)

If he hits the mark for roster bonus escalators in 2023 then Geno's cap hit increases to 46.2 in 2024 and then if he meets them again in 2024 his cap hit goes to 48.7 in 2025. How does everyone feel about that? Obviously, Geno would have to play great to hit those escalators but dang 46.2 million is no bargain.

We can't have it all ways. If Geno guess those numbers I think we can say that is a good problem to have.

Didn't you say wanted Geno to have an incentive based contract?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

We can't have it all ways. If Geno guess those numbers I think we can say that is a good problem to have.

Didn't you say wanted Geno to have an incentive based contract?

Seems like a catch 22 doesn’t it? It’s always something. Best course may be to simply cut him after the season. Does this make more likely they draft a QB, assuming there is a top prospect available? To have options if Geno plays badly or if Geno play prices him too high?

 

[Podunkparte]

Seems like a catch 22 doesn’t it? It’s always something. Best course may be to simply cut him after the season. Does this make more likely they draft a QB, assuming there is a top prospect available? To have options if Geno plays badly or if Geno play prices him too high?

Are you suggesting cutting a QB because he's playing too well?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Are you suggesting cutting a QB because he's playing too well?

Seems crazy, but 46 million is Mahomes level of pay isn’t it?

 

[blstoker]

Seems crazy, but 46 million is Mahomes level of pay isn’t it?

If I understand the contract right, he gets the $15 million against the cap anyway, so we aren't saving that if he performs this season. If he isn't cut before March 15ish, then the dead cap hit is $54 million.

Honestly, the contract is written such that if Geno sucks, Seattle can walk away fairly unscathed after 1 year, but if Geno hits his incentives - Seattle can't cut him until year three without taking a massive hit.

 

[JMR]

Seems crazy, but 46 million is Mahomes level of pay isn’t it?

I'm with you.. for sure DO NOT pay him Mahomes money if he's putting up Mahomes numbers.