Free agents galore

[Redsfan1507]

He can hit a little, as long as he's not expected to for too long. He can squat behind the plate and catch most pitches thrown in his direction- that makes him a catcher. Obviously, that's worth $4.M a year to some teams. It's why the Reds traded Hanigan today- he'll get a 2 year deal, pretty good for a past prime in post PED era C coming off a sub .200 BA year, and the Reds will go with a cheaper, bigger, stronger Mesoraco instead. They got a minor league LHSP with a sub 3.00 ERA in AA for him. It might not make a difference, but Hanigan was signed at a tryout camp for a bus ticket, and Medoraco was a 1st round bonus baby. Gotta give him the opportunity for return on the Reds investment, Hanigan already did.

 

[JohnU]

The deal clearly came as no surprise to Hanigan after the Reds signed Pena. I would guess that Hanny knew long ago that he'd be traded and ...who knows, maybe he had a say in the deal?

This is as much about contracts as it is players. A lot of FA's are going to cave in pretty quick when the list of available spots shrinks. I see a lot of new ones just joined the list. Seems like the owners are suddenly looking at a new hand being dealt.

I don't think it's a good sign for the FAs. Those $8 million contracts are chicken feed. Well, maybe not to me or you.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Read where Hanny had already signed a 3yr/$10.75M extension with the Rays before the deal was announced. Apparently the deal was done a few days ago and was contingent on the Rays working out the Hanny contract extension. Being on his last year of arbitration, without the extension his value wouldn't have been as high. Picking up the 10th ranked lefthander in MiLB is pretty good value, IMO.

With Cueto's history of injury, the loss of Arroyo eating up 200+innings, Cingrani with back problems, and Latos coming off surgery to remove bone chips, adding starter pitching depth sounds like a good plan to me.

 

[Redsfan1507]

This deal was designed 3 years ago, when Mesoraco and Grandal were being projected to be ready at the end of Hanigan's non arb contract years. Hanigan was a rare surprise, a camp signee that wound up a starting player. It helped he was a catcher. Heisey was "only" a 17th round draft pick and can't seem to get more than a backup role opportunity as a MLB OF, because every higher drafted OF and failed INF that becomes an OF, and any MLB used to be has a bigger contract / bonus investment to return.

Opportunity is truly only as equal as the percieved talent level is, and guys that draft and sign bonus babies don't like to get shown up by bus ticket camp hacks and organizational "depth" stiffs. Once in a lottery chance, lack of depth and injuries allow a window of opportunity that is rarely turned into enough performance to steal a MLB starting spot. When lighting does strike like that, it usually doesn't flash long. Hanigan has already shot for and landed on the moon in that regard.

Oddly, there is little pressure on guys like Hanigan- no one expected him to reach this far. A lot more pressure on the Mesoraco's...and Brandon Larson's. everyone expects them to be an All-Star. Odds are against them, too...they just get more chances.

 

[JohnU]

It seems the swap for Brayan Pena is the crutch here. Pena speaks Spanish, so the Latin pitchers (one or two) will be helped, evidently since the bullpen catcher doesn't speak the language.

The deal is better with longer control over a mid-level lefty starting pitcher - Holmberg.

Mesoraco gets the job and all seems well. What fashions a mystery for me is if Mesoraco should have been the regular catcher, why in FUCK didn't Dusty realize that? Did it take trading Hanny and WJ's just saying it ... seems like that could have been done before we endured a .198 season from a guy who caught 55 percent of the games.

I sometimes wonder about stuff.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Dusty was, is, and always will be a guy where common sense wasn't a common occurrence. He hit #8 hitters at the top of the lineup for 3 years before recognizing BP was on the team. Not to be accused of learning from a mistake, he reverted back to previous failures by removing him from thAt successful strategy the following year. He argued he couldn't add Bruxe to the roster his rookie year, because whoever played CF had to bat leadoff... It took him a while to figure out Bruce could also play RF and hit 5th without the world coming to an end.

Dusty never let failure keep him from doing the same things, usually involving underperforming veterans playing too much, regardless of higher upside younger options. The Reds had to trade Scot Hatteberg before Dusty would stop his L/L Bafoon Platoon with Hatteberg and Votto.

Baker is undoubtedly the most overrated manager that never won a Series, in the history of MLB. The fact it took so many years before the Reds brass kicked him to the curb still stupefies me. For whatever reasons, Bakers career win (and loss) totals are a testiment to how long mediocrity can be tolerated, even in a profession with one of the highest turnover rates around.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Actually, Holmberg has some pretty impressive stats. He was a 2nd round pick that has put up very solid numbers through AA. He's young, and may be only a year away from getting a real shot at a MLB rotation. He's a better prospect at his age than Hanigan was, by far.

 

[JohnU]

I try to not over-evaluate young pitchers.
I thought Kyle Lotzkar and Daniel Corcino were on the fast track.
If you remember their names after this year, I will award you with the Golden Toothpick.
Holmberg is penciled in as a starter, which means he could be a reliever. Evidently he doesn't have the K-buzz that MLB thinks is necessary for a closer.
A closer is a wasted roster spot.
Seems like Chapman is going to be the closer again. Price is better than Baker at what, exactly?
So far, Price and Walt don't seem to agree on Chapman's role, and it doesn't take a Golden Toothpick winner to realize that they could have at least gotten their stories straight on that.
We still have no left fielder of value (hard to believe) and nobody to lead off.
But if the center fielder has to lead off, why ... hell, whoever is in CF will lead off. Price not unlike Dusty, so far as I can see.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Price is not opinionated enough. He is gonna be a manager who tries to appease people. Fuck that. Have an opinion, express it and let people know where the fuck you stand. Especially, if it makes the club better.

 

[eburg5000]

Price is getting his shot. I don't think he will, or at least I hope he doesn't, PISS it away by doing the same things Dusty did.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, Dusty is gone, so the next one is on Walt..a couple of the last ones might have been on Walt for keeping the dust bomb that long, as a matter of fact.

So far, Price will have less ammo that Dusty had- less Choo, Hanigan and Arroyo. I think Cingrani is better than no LHSP, but his fastball only repertoire is gonna get hammered some if the stop swinging at collarbone high ones. He could be a mid-4 ERA prett easily, and he's no more thana 5 inning guy at 100 pitches...that means a 5 starter...and that tells me replacing 200 IP of Arroyos isn't that probable.

Choo is a loss the Reds can't make up with current roster. Hamilton may steal 80 bases, but he isn't going to get on base or hit with power anywhere close to Choo. BP isn't likely to improve, and neither is Ludwick. Mesoraco will hit more HR than Hanigan, but not enough to make up Choo's loss, and the D will suffer without Hanigan and Arroyo, the 2 best defenders the Reds had at those positions. Shumaker isn't a gold glove, or a power or steal guy. He's a journeyman backup or a part time role player on a good team.

Im disappointed in the early call to leave Chapnan in the pen, where he's proven to be a non factor in most post season games so far. If he and Cingrani were both considered SP, that leaves another SP to trade for a real power bat...like Mark Trumbo, for instance. In disappointed Aoki went for a middle reliever to be released later...seems like Reds have depth there.

Walt needs to show us something MORE this winter than a new dugout staff and 2 fewer
All-Stars.

 

[JohnU]

Chapman's value is decreasing as long as he remains a closer.
The trend is eventually to get away from the 1-inning shutdown guy with super skills.
The reason is very simple: Chapman sat on the bench for 12 games and was not used because his situation never arose. Managers are beginning to notice that.
Nobody is going to play top dollar for a closer in the future once the Mariano Rivera fog finally drifts away. Papelbon has hamstrung the Phils with a useless contract.

Chapman will find himself in a loser's market if he insists on remaining a closer in a dinosaur position. Price knows this and will hopefully give AC some 2-inning save chances.

If not, Chappy should be traded while there are plenty of stupid GMs out there who think a closer is a great idea, even if you give up the players you need to be ahead by the 9th inning. If the Houston closer had gotten 51 saves last year, it would have been amazing -- since the Astros won 51 games.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Aroldis Chapman is the best lefthanded arm in a generation. For some reason, the Reds have come up with a list of bullshit reasons why Chapman can't start... All of which so far have proven untrue-culture, experience, control, stamina, etc. I always suspected 2 overriding motivations for Dusty taking that stance in the past- his avoidance of possibly getting accused of blowing another young arm (unjustified), and the fear if being proved wrong after so many excuses why Chapman would fail as a starter. Well, Dusty's gone-and if this team can't get past changing things he did wrong, why fire him in the first place ?

Chapmans contract is more than half over, he's succeeded exceedingly in everything they've asked if him. He's been the best SP in the last 2 spring trainings. So what's the reason now ? Anyone that is willing to conpromise on the best rotation possible (30-35 starts)for the sake of status quo in 40 games where the last pitcher already has a lead, is missing the point. Ask any MLB hitter if he'd rather face Chapman for his first 100 pitches a game, or the last 15 pitches of the game and you will understand why a dominant guy through 5-6-7 innings is more important than a dominant guy through 1 inning.

In order to win, you gotta try to be the best the whole time, not just 4 out of 5 days.

 

[redsfan03]

I guess it really has to do with Chapman not wanting to start more than anything. He's got an attitude to him so I guess the old adage of "keep the talent happy" applies here. That's the best I can come up with. Every ounce of sense suggests that he should be a starter. Walt has clearly always wanted him to be a starter. I believe Brian Price wanted him to be a starter back when he was the pitching coach, though I could be wrong. Hopefully Cingrani provides a solid lefty arm in the rotation, but I'm not convinced especially given his back issues.

 

[JohnU]

If the Reds give Chappy the ball and tell him to start, he will smile and do the job. He will also learn that his market value in 3 years will be astronomical, unless he truly believes that he will fail as a starter.

In that case, I vote we deal the guy for somebody who has some courage.

Anybody in MLB should be able to get 3 outs in the 9th inning. If they can't, they should be playing for the Gary RailCats. The point is: Wasting a skill set like Chapman's in a ridiculous out-of-date closer role is mind-boggling.

 

[Redsfan1507]

About once in a generation, a guy comes along that has overpowering stuff that just can't be compensated for more often than a rare occasion, and when you equate that to a lineup, where great offenses fail a two thirds of the time, that is the definition of a guy that brings the potential of no hit stuff, every time he gets the ball. Randy Johnson had that. Nolan Ryan had that, and to tell you how rare it happens, he "only" had 7 no-no's...but he also had 19 one-hitters, and a schidt load of shutouts and strikeouts (and walks),and no one was ever happy with his control, or even his win total (mostly with mediocre teams). Homer Bailey has 2 no-no's and lots of career left, but his best weapon pales in comparison to Chapman's.

"Development" of "secondary pitches" isn't something Chapman's capability denied him, it has been denied by the role the Reds have given him. How can people be so optimistic about Cingrani, or even Homer Bailey, when 80% of their pitches are fastballs, that are several notches below Chapman's on the hitability bar ? Chapman has devistating slider, and a changeup that exceeds Leake's average fastball speed.

I'm sure AC would have a game or two where he couldn't find the plate. So did Ryan and Johnson and every other guy to toe the mound. You can't teach 105, and the truth is that anything over about 98 doesn't just go up one mph on the level of difficulty, it increases exponentially. 105 isn't just 8 % harder to hit than 97, it's about 38% harder...and the average on 97 mph is already well under the MLB BA. Check Chapmans BA against. His K:BB ratio, K per 9 innings, ERA, WHIP, and any other metric and you will find him among the elite in MLB history. Now tell me he's going to contribute to more wins by throwing 3 outs 45 times a year, than 18-24 outs 30-35 times a year...try to sell it to someone that believes it too, first.

Yep, wouldn't be a good idea to expect him to toss 220 innings right away. Yep, there's a chance he might blow an arm, but no more than in the bullpen or playing badminton in the offseason...and in mid-season, he could always go back to one inning with about 4 days rest...but not so easy to start in mid season after closing. I don't understand not TRYING it, due to overwhelming reward if it works v. Minimal risk if it doesn't. I will never understand that. If the Reds allow AC to go free agent, I bet some other team is going to go down that path, and the Reds may look like the guy that wanted to keep Ruth pitching.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Supposedly Arroyo is down to the Twins, Reds and "two other teams"...which means he hasn't gotten what he was looking for, yet anyway. Bartolommeo Colon got $20M for 2 years, so I could see Arroyo getting that much- no one knows how old Colon really is, or if he's still on the Roids. Not that I think Arroyo is garbage, but I don't believe the Reds can give him that kind of money unless they trade one of the other SP's- all of which are younger, cheaper and have a longer expected MLB lifespan, and at least if Arroyo isn't re-signed, the Reds have a chance at putting a LHSP in the rotation. I'd rather see the Reds invest $20M in another bat.