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Part 1 of 2
Ranking every QB into fantasy tiers
Eric Karabell
One of my favorite reactions to the annual positional tiers blogs is when readers think we’re talking about tears, as in the considerable salty ones shed for those who invested first-round picks in Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck last season. Sure, it didn’t go quite so well, but there’s no need for such an emotional response! Just find another quarterback! And when we’re talking about using a tiered system for position-by-position purposes, that’s precisely what we’re attempting to do -- quantify the value of similar options prior to drafts.
Ranking fantasy football options in tiers is wise for standard drafts as well as auctions, and it’s an easy way to quickly react to sudden or unusual dips in value and gauge supply versus demand. For example, you’re sitting there in Round 5 and debating the next pick, time’s a-runnin’ out, and you see plenty of quarterbacks and wide receivers available in coveted tiers you trust but just one running back at the end of a tier with a significant drop-off to follow. That’s the likely pick -- the running back at the end of the tier -- because when you pick next, you can probably still secure a quarterback or wide receiver you like.
Regardless, using my personal rankings as the guide – and yours should differ! -- here are what I view as draft-day tiers at quarterback. In the weeks ahead, we’ll move on to running back and wide receiver. I urge you to create your own rankings and tier them off, so you can evaluate for yourself how the talent is distributed across these positions and where the depth is in certain ranges, from early rounds to later. Perhaps you want no part of certain players I recommend, which will make your own tiers looks considerably different. And remember, preparation is critical, even in online drafts, for you don’t get much time to make these picks. A tiered system helps.
Tier 1: Round 4
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: He finished atop the overall scoring leaderboard in 2015 and, obviously, due to his lofty perch atop the position rankings, a major drop-off isn’t expected. But wait, the fourth round? Yeah, sorry, one shouldn’t be using first- and second-round selections on quarterbacks, at least not these quarterbacks, and because I view these three established veterans similarly for overall fantasy value, I’d just keep waiting. Of course, it’s far more likely Newton goes in Round 1 of average live drafts than Round 4, but it doesn’t bother me.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: So talented, but we do know he needs some help to be a fantasy star. The return of Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson provides that. I do trust Rodgers over the other quarterback chosen in Round 1 last year, but again, that never should have happened. Wait a few rounds, at least.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: Nine touchdown passes in eight games prior to the bye week. Then he tossed 25 touchdown passes after that. He’ll likely end up in between, but with his legs helping out, he’s certainly reliable enough even for this top tier.
Tier 2: Round 7
Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Surprise! Alone on my island with this one, but I can defend it. Yes, he’s going to miss four games, but the quarterback depth is so great and so many usable quarterbacks with enticing September schedules are unlikely to be selected in most leagues. Also, consider how few are docking Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell out of Round 2, but he’s scheduled to miss the same four games! Trust me, it’s easier to pluck a suitable September quarterback in Round 12 than it is to secure DeAngelo Williams, because now everyone’s going to want Williams, and not just as a handcuff. Let Brady slide if you desire, but from Week 5 on, I think he might be fantasy’s top player – or it could be Bell, by the way -- and that’s what matters to me. I can be patient.
Tier 3: Round 8
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: The weapons change from time to time, but at least he’s got Antonio Brown, the No. 1 overall pick. No reason why Roethlisberger can’t duplicate his outstanding 2014 campaign. Well, health would be a reason, but I wouldn’t call him brittle.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: If Luck returns to his 2014 level, then he’s not ranked properly here, but it’s tough to ignore what happened last year. Sure, expect better health, but Luck wasn’t playing well prior to the injuries and interceptions might always remain a problem. Nothing wrong with being in Tier 3, by the way.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: A fine 2015 season that ended with him as the No. 6 quarterback, but I do have a bit of trouble getting past the fact that except for the seven-touchdown monster performance in Week 8, he wasn’t special. He was borderline top-10. Still formidable, but one of these years you’ll regret choosing him. I doubt it’s this year, thus he’s my No. 7 QB.
Tier 4: Round 10
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals: He’s hardly too old to have another great season, especially with those weapons. And by the way, I do not have 10 quarterbacks among my overall top-100. There’s no need. Enjoy the depth later.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: I rank him higher than most because I actually believe what we saw in the second half of the season was real. I know it seems crazy, but we’ve seen the upside, and if he’s a dud, it won’t be difficult to find another QB.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: Safe, reliable, underrated and as long as Antonio Gates is a target, he should be fine.
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars: Fourth last season in standard scoring, but as with Luck, concerns about the interceptions. Also, it’s tough to rely on so many fourth-quarter fantasy points with the Jags trailing. They should improve and could also opt for a more balanced attack with Chris Ivory joining up.
Eli Manning, New York Giants: Pretty reliable, but he’s finished better than No. 10 among fantasy quarterbacks just once in the past decade, so upside is likely capped.
Ranking every QB into fantasy tiers
Eric Karabell
One of my favorite reactions to the annual positional tiers blogs is when readers think we’re talking about tears, as in the considerable salty ones shed for those who invested first-round picks in Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck last season. Sure, it didn’t go quite so well, but there’s no need for such an emotional response! Just find another quarterback! And when we’re talking about using a tiered system for position-by-position purposes, that’s precisely what we’re attempting to do -- quantify the value of similar options prior to drafts.
Ranking fantasy football options in tiers is wise for standard drafts as well as auctions, and it’s an easy way to quickly react to sudden or unusual dips in value and gauge supply versus demand. For example, you’re sitting there in Round 5 and debating the next pick, time’s a-runnin’ out, and you see plenty of quarterbacks and wide receivers available in coveted tiers you trust but just one running back at the end of a tier with a significant drop-off to follow. That’s the likely pick -- the running back at the end of the tier -- because when you pick next, you can probably still secure a quarterback or wide receiver you like.
Regardless, using my personal rankings as the guide – and yours should differ! -- here are what I view as draft-day tiers at quarterback. In the weeks ahead, we’ll move on to running back and wide receiver. I urge you to create your own rankings and tier them off, so you can evaluate for yourself how the talent is distributed across these positions and where the depth is in certain ranges, from early rounds to later. Perhaps you want no part of certain players I recommend, which will make your own tiers looks considerably different. And remember, preparation is critical, even in online drafts, for you don’t get much time to make these picks. A tiered system helps.
Tier 1: Round 4
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: He finished atop the overall scoring leaderboard in 2015 and, obviously, due to his lofty perch atop the position rankings, a major drop-off isn’t expected. But wait, the fourth round? Yeah, sorry, one shouldn’t be using first- and second-round selections on quarterbacks, at least not these quarterbacks, and because I view these three established veterans similarly for overall fantasy value, I’d just keep waiting. Of course, it’s far more likely Newton goes in Round 1 of average live drafts than Round 4, but it doesn’t bother me.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: So talented, but we do know he needs some help to be a fantasy star. The return of Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson provides that. I do trust Rodgers over the other quarterback chosen in Round 1 last year, but again, that never should have happened. Wait a few rounds, at least.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: Nine touchdown passes in eight games prior to the bye week. Then he tossed 25 touchdown passes after that. He’ll likely end up in between, but with his legs helping out, he’s certainly reliable enough even for this top tier.
Tier 2: Round 7
Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Surprise! Alone on my island with this one, but I can defend it. Yes, he’s going to miss four games, but the quarterback depth is so great and so many usable quarterbacks with enticing September schedules are unlikely to be selected in most leagues. Also, consider how few are docking Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell out of Round 2, but he’s scheduled to miss the same four games! Trust me, it’s easier to pluck a suitable September quarterback in Round 12 than it is to secure DeAngelo Williams, because now everyone’s going to want Williams, and not just as a handcuff. Let Brady slide if you desire, but from Week 5 on, I think he might be fantasy’s top player – or it could be Bell, by the way -- and that’s what matters to me. I can be patient.
Tier 3: Round 8
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: The weapons change from time to time, but at least he’s got Antonio Brown, the No. 1 overall pick. No reason why Roethlisberger can’t duplicate his outstanding 2014 campaign. Well, health would be a reason, but I wouldn’t call him brittle.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: If Luck returns to his 2014 level, then he’s not ranked properly here, but it’s tough to ignore what happened last year. Sure, expect better health, but Luck wasn’t playing well prior to the injuries and interceptions might always remain a problem. Nothing wrong with being in Tier 3, by the way.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: A fine 2015 season that ended with him as the No. 6 quarterback, but I do have a bit of trouble getting past the fact that except for the seven-touchdown monster performance in Week 8, he wasn’t special. He was borderline top-10. Still formidable, but one of these years you’ll regret choosing him. I doubt it’s this year, thus he’s my No. 7 QB.
Tier 4: Round 10
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals: He’s hardly too old to have another great season, especially with those weapons. And by the way, I do not have 10 quarterbacks among my overall top-100. There’s no need. Enjoy the depth later.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: I rank him higher than most because I actually believe what we saw in the second half of the season was real. I know it seems crazy, but we’ve seen the upside, and if he’s a dud, it won’t be difficult to find another QB.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: Safe, reliable, underrated and as long as Antonio Gates is a target, he should be fine.
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars: Fourth last season in standard scoring, but as with Luck, concerns about the interceptions. Also, it’s tough to rely on so many fourth-quarter fantasy points with the Jags trailing. They should improve and could also opt for a more balanced attack with Chris Ivory joining up.
Eli Manning, New York Giants: Pretty reliable, but he’s finished better than No. 10 among fantasy quarterbacks just once in the past decade, so upside is likely capped.
