ESPN Analytics Specialist: Titans By All Accounts Clear Winner in Trade With Rams

[Hank Kingsley]

Well duh.

I was actually say just that but didn't want to be seen as Mr Obvious.

So I'll quote your wise words instead.

 

[NinerSickness]

Exactly... We've seen that Mariota looks on his way to becoming a franchise QB as a rookie

We have?

 

[Rockinkuwait]

We have?

Oh yeah... Biggest concern was what? Playing from under center.. Every pundit said that would be where he'd really have to show his skill... Check, he looked really solid when he did that last year. Looked actually comfortable doing that which was a huge surprise to me, lets just say if you told me he'd have a QB rating 24 points higher than Aaron Rodgers while under center in 2015, I'd have laughed.

Throwing in the red zone, check.. This was I thought by far his best showing.. He was truly elite there, which is amazing as this is where things tighten up, where everything has to be quicker, and holy hell he looked amazing here.

Throwing NFL throws, deep outs and posts... Crap receivers but he made them with solid accuracy and good velocity.

Not getting sucked into RGIII mode... He was really keeping his head downfield, looking to throw first. Maybe even a bit too tentative on taking off.

Thought he was a bit slow in the pocket to read, but he was reading both sides of the field, not the half side double route roll out stuff they throw out there for young guys. They really didn't shut down the playbook for him and he did well with it.

Protecting the ball, a bit loose with the fumbles, but 3rd lowest turnover rate in the NFL... Check.

3rd highest QB rating by a rookie in NFL history with at least 300 attempts... Check.

Playing well on the road? Check.

Keeping out of the news for negative reasons... Check

And doing those things with a bottom 4 offensive line, bottom of the barrel wide receivers, one of the least productive run games in the league and a bottom 5 D around him... Not bad from what I saw.


There were questions, but not like there's ever been a rookie QB without those. But he answered a LOT more questions than he created last year about if he could be a franchise QB.

 

[NinerSickness]

Oh yeah... Biggest concern was what? Playing from under center.. Every pundit said that would be where he'd really have to show his skill... Check, he looked really solid when he did that last year. Looked actually comfortable doing that which was a huge surprise to me, lets just say if you told me he'd have a QB rating 24 points higher than Aaron Rodgers while under center in 2015, I'd have laughed.

Throwing in the red zone, check.. This was I thought by far his best showing.. He was truly elite there, which is amazing as this is where things tighten up, where everything has to be quicker, and holy hell he looked amazing here.

Throwing NFL throws, deep outs and posts... Crap receivers but he made them with solid accuracy and good velocity.

Not getting sucked into RGIII mode... He was really keeping his head downfield, looking to throw first. Maybe even a bit too tentative on taking off.

Thought he was a bit slow in the pocket to read, but he was reading both sides of the field, not the half side double route roll out stuff they throw out there for young guys. They really didn't shut down the playbook for him and he did well with it.

Protecting the ball, a bit loose with the fumbles, but 3rd lowest turnover rate in the NFL... Check.

3rd highest QB rating by a rookie in NFL history with at least 300 attempts... Check.

Playing well on the road? Check.

Keeping out of the news for negative reasons... Check

And doing those things with a bottom 4 offensive line, bottom of the barrel wide receivers, one of the least productive run games in the league and a bottom 5 D around him... Not bad from what I saw.


There were questions, but not like there's ever been a rookie QB without those. But he answered a LOT more questions than he created last year about if he could be a franchise QB.

Remember another Titans' receiver who won rookie of the year (while I was saying he sucks & is overrated by the way) about whom people were talking not just franchise but HOF?

Mariota hasn't come close to proving anything. Garbage yards in mostly meaningless games (except the first one of the year) say nothing. What he can do in wins against decent teams will show whether he's going to be good or not (I think he's Kaepernick 2.0, but maybe a tiny bit better).

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Remember another Titans' receiver who won rookie of the year (while I was saying he sucks & is overrated by the way) about whom people were talking not just franchise but HOF?

Mariota hasn't come close to proving anything. Garbage yards in mostly meaningless games (except the first one of the year) say nothing. What he can do in wins against decent teams will show whether he's going to be good or not (I think he's Kaepernick 2.0, but maybe a tiny bit better).

And now you are taking both sides of this. I am guessing you mean titans QB that won ROY... not receiver. Vince Young won rookie of the year by winning and his scrambling ability over throwing the ball at an NFL level. Which is it now? They are kind of the exact opposite.



And playing from behind with bad WR's and O'line doesn't usually make you look good. When the score was tied or ahead for Mariota, he had a 111 QB rating. 108 in the first quarter when the games were the closest.

It sounds nice to not watch the games, but see a bad record and say "he just got all his stuff in garbage time", but that isn't reality.


Mettenberger actually led the Titans in blowout passing yards, despite having 70% fewer passing yards as a whole. Mariota has fewer yards in that blowout time than Ryan, Kaep, Rodgers, Brees, Cousins, Winstron, Tannehill, Hoyer, Bortles, Luck...

Mariota - 15% of yardage came when down by more than 2 scores.
Metenberger 50% of yardage came when down by more than 2 scores.
NFL average 11.2% of yardage when down by more than 2 scores

So him throwing a whopping 3.8% more than average in that situation is why? Not the other 96+% of his season? And considering that on average, Comp %, TD rate, YPA, and QB rating ALL drop on average when down by more than 2 scores, I don't see how blowouts help inflate productivity and efficiency.


You do realize Mettenberger not Mariota was the QB in the blowouts to Houston twice, NE, and the end of the Miami blowout.

Of the Mariota losses he was finishing...

1 pt to the bills
3 points to the falcons
6 points to the Jags
3 points to the Raiders
2 points to the Colts
14 to the Browns (7 point game until inside of 3 minutes left, had 1 drive when down by more than 7 to end that game).
17 to the Panthers (7 point game until 9 left in the 4th, after which they had a 3 and out and a drive ended by a McCluster fumble)

So of the 7 losses he finished, that is 12 out of 420 minutes of game he had the potential to have the ball in mostly hopeless situations. AKA 2.8% of the time.

That's why I say so few of his yards were garbage time in meaningless games... I count three drives in the games he lost playing to the end where he was down by more than 2 scores. That's what you think is defining him?




And watching Kaep last year on a team devoid of talent around him, I can't say he looked anything like Mariota, even with multiple years of experience.



And let me use the same exact logic, only changing the name on the back of the jersey and see if it sticks...

"What he can do in wins against decent teams will show whether he's going to be good or not" The rest, inconsequential right? all the other good he showed, doesn't matter if that's out there...

So Jared Goff, through his college career faced a total of 8 ranked teams, and walked out of there with an 0-8 record. By your logic, teams should absolutely stay the heck away. How bad would you consider him? Like looking like the next Leaf? Jamarcus Russell? How completely overhyped is that guy for not showing us ANYTHING in 3 years there?

 

[Rockinkuwait]

By the way, not saying Mariota is going to be a franchise QB. Just that if you redid that draft, I would have no problem with the Titans making that same exact pick with the need of a franchise QB as their top priority. He answered some of the bigger questions about his personal play, and while nobody can show that they are for sure the guy out of the gate, he did more than most do. No problem calling him ahead of the curve so far.

 

[RegentDenali]

If Rams land a franchise QB, it works, but that is a massive gamble given the two prospects. They really gave up way too much. It's not like they're a SB caliber team with the QB being the only missing piece.

And it always gets worse because to offset all that lost rookie talent the next couple years, they'll have to go heavy with FAs which dings your salary cap harder compared to production.

These deals rarely work out.

The Titans made out like bandits on the deal and now have plenty of draft ammunition to build up a winner and better protect Mariota.

 

[Tainthappening]

If you look at all the examples of big trades to move up in the draft, very very few of them have worked out for the team moving up. They are usually derided by observers after the fact. Herschel Walker. Ricky Williams. RGIII.

Trading up in 1st round has worked and giving up multiple picks in current and future drafts...

Packers moved up to select Clay Matthews, Pittsburgh for Troy P., Jets for Revis, Falcons for J. Jones, Ravens for Flacco (gave them a Super Bowl)...

This trade is obviously bigger, realistically it can only be looked at several years from now. If they get the franchise QB they need for next 10-15 years it will have been worth the trade. They have to believe strongly in the QB they will be drafting.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Actually it held up pretty well to actual trades for years with the salary cap. The outliers would be those ones for that top talent (Ricky W, RGIII, type moves for a guy the coach felt was needed at any cost).

Well don't forget the Saints also got Charles Grant, John Stinchcomb (through using a pick for a further move) and Johnathan Sullivan (eh) for Ricky Williams. And all the rest of those picks, well there was Champ, and Lavar Arrington, and meh, it didn't make Washington a playoff team.

And Giants gave up a pile for 1 spot for Eli Manning (looked like a clear win for the Chargers a few years in with Merriman, Kaeding, and Rivers, but I'd say it worked for NY fine).

Julio was a huge one. Gave up what ended up being 3 meh receivers, a fullback, and Brandon Weeden.

Cowboys giving up 4 picks in the first two rounds for Tony Dorsett in the draft was a big one. Landry didn't want their committee of backs after that playoff loss to the Rams and went all in on Dorsett.

49ers moving up 12 spots in the first to get Jerry Rice was another. Walsh really really wanted him, was sure Dallas was going to snag him so made his move...

Revis as said. Jets were dying for him, afraid the Steelers would grab their hometown guy and pulled the trigger.



But so was the Leaf trade. And the Vick trade (SD got LT... and Tim Dwight).

 

[shopson67]

Can't judge winners and losers until the players are picked and amount to something (or not).

 

[Manster7588]

Exactly... We've seen that Mariota looks on his way to becoming a franchise QB as a rookie, which is ahead of the average curve. So why instead go after Wentz, the best QB in the draft who you don't even know if he will be at that level?

If I'm not mistaking wasn't the same said about RGIII's rookie season?

 

[flyerhawk]

Trading up in 1st round has worked and giving up multiple picks in current and future drafts...

Packers moved up to select Clay Matthews, Pittsburgh for Troy P., Jets for Revis, Falcons for J. Jones, Ravens for Flacco (gave them a Super Bowl)...

This trade is obviously bigger, realistically it can only be looked at several years from now. If they get the franchise QB they need for next 10-15 years it will have been worth the trade. They have to believe strongly in the QB they will be drafting.

Moving up isn't necessarily bad. The Ravens gave up a 3rd and 6th to move up to get Flacco.

Giving up an entire draft for one draft pick, is another thing entirely.

 

[tducey]

Goff is not better than Mariota. I get the Rams wanted to make a splash but I think they gave up to much here.

 

[The Oldtimer]

If Rams land a franchise QB, it works, but that is a massive gamble given the two prospects. They really gave up way too much. It's not like they're a SB caliber team with the QB being the only missing piece.

And it always gets worse because to offset all that lost rookie talent the next couple years, they'll have to go heavy with FAs which dings your salary cap harder compared to production.

These deals rarely work out.

The Titans made out like bandits on the deal and now have plenty of draft ammunition to build up a winner and better protect Mariota.

Good comment and I agree, but the Titans have to draft good and not waste the picks they got from the Rams. Yes it is/was a risky gamble by the Rams, but they need a good QB in the worst way. The Rams without a good QB will never be a playoff team. The Rams haven't been to the playoffs in 13 years and haven't even had a winning season in years. The Rams need a good QB NOW, they have already sold +55,000 season tickets and with a new fanbase they have to win NOW. Just my opinion.

 

[fastforward]

It was a fair trade. No team came away with less than 90% of the true value. A pick in a future Draft isn't worth as much as the same overall pick in the current Draft. The only question is how much less is it worth. Historically future picks have been valued at less than 80% of current value. The Draft Value Chart is a guide not a rule but at 76% for 2017 picks the trade would be right on the money.

 

[Manster7588]

IMO, at present Tennessee won in this trade, this can change when all is said and done. We won't really know until 2019 or 20.

 

[fastforward]

IMO, at present Tennessee won in this trade, this can change when all is said and done. We won't really know until 2019 or 20.

I don't look at a trade as winning or losing, at least until there are some tangible results. I haven't looked at any college tape this year as a scouting guide so i'm not going to comment on whether any particular prospect is worth what the Rams gave up. I simply don't know. I'm gauging it purely as a pick for pick package based on what picks have been worth in the past.

That said I wouldn't have made this trade, this year. I would have let things play out a little. I don't believe Keenum, Foles or Mannion are the answer for the Rams but it's too early to tell based on how poor the Rams were on offense last year. With no #1 pick trade and an offensive draft in 2016 my opinion of current Rams QBs could have changed in 12 months time.

Then again i'm only looking at this from a purely football perspective. I'm not a GM or HC trying to justify my job in an internal politics power-play. Beyond that there's an even bigger picture. The Rams are in a new city with potential new partners/rivals 1 or 2 years away from joining the party. Even if the Rams 'lose' the trade they could win the war by making it much more difficult for the Chargers or Raiders to move to Inglewood. I could live with that.

I help run the Sportsbook on another forum and I had the Rams at 18/1 to trade up for the #1 pick. It was unlikely but not a huge shock.

 

[shopson67]

Moving up isn't necessarily bad. The Ravens gave up a 3rd and 6th to move up to get Flacco.

Giving up an entire draft for one draft pick, is another thing entirely.

Rams gave up less to move up 14 spots than the Skins did to move up 4. There are still people that claim the Redskins won that trade because of one playoff appearance (a loss), despite the Redskins having no assets left from the trade, while the Rams still have three key starters and more wins than the Skins since that trade.

It's not an entire draft either. The Rams gave up 2 2nds and a 3rd, plus two future picks (one likely to be 3rd round comp pick, ironically enough for a player selected with a pick from that Skins trade). One of the 2nds was from trading away Bradford, handicapping the Eagles' ability to trade up for one of these guys.

 

[Malibu]

I stopped reading after ESPN.

 

[Southieinnc]

If I'm not mistaking wasn't the same said about RGIII's rookie season?

But that was the Redskins. They are not the Titans - well maybe they are.......