flyerhawk
Well-Known Member
Let's take a look at top 5 QBs drafted in the past 15 years.
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Luck
Griffin
Newton
Bradford
Stafford
Sanchez
Ryan
Russell
Young
Smith
Manning
Rivers
Palmer
Carr
Harrington
17 QBs.
5 legitimate Pro Bowlers(Luck, Newton, Manning, Ryan, Rivers).
6 complete busts(Sanchez, Russell, Young, Carr, Harrington, Griffin)
3 TBDs(Winston, Mariota, Bortles)
3 league average starting capable players(Stafford, Smith, Palmer)
So a 30% chance for a stud. 30% chance of a complete failure. 50% chance of a starting capable QB.
FTR, if you wanted to shift back the date range to not include the young guys, replace Winston, Mariota, Bortles, with Manning, McNabb, Couch, Akili Smith, and Leaf. Then it would be 19 top 5s, 43% chance of stud, 47% loser.
If you have the pick and don't have a QB, it makes total sense. But giving up the farm on a roulette roll is pretty dangerous.
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Luck
Griffin
Newton
Bradford
Stafford
Sanchez
Ryan
Russell
Young
Smith
Manning
Rivers
Palmer
Carr
Harrington
17 QBs.
5 legitimate Pro Bowlers(Luck, Newton, Manning, Ryan, Rivers).
6 complete busts(Sanchez, Russell, Young, Carr, Harrington, Griffin)
3 TBDs(Winston, Mariota, Bortles)
3 league average starting capable players(Stafford, Smith, Palmer)
So a 30% chance for a stud. 30% chance of a complete failure. 50% chance of a starting capable QB.
FTR, if you wanted to shift back the date range to not include the young guys, replace Winston, Mariota, Bortles, with Manning, McNabb, Couch, Akili Smith, and Leaf. Then it would be 19 top 5s, 43% chance of stud, 47% loser.
If you have the pick and don't have a QB, it makes total sense. But giving up the farm on a roulette roll is pretty dangerous.