Wild Turkey
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My opinion is that I'm grateful I don't know you in real life.If the P5 schools break off, they'd almost have to do it as four 16 team conferences. The B1G is by far the safest, and if anyone questions that, it's because they simply do not understand that sports is NOT the end all, be all. Research dollars brings in TEN TIMES as much money than sports does for the Universities in the B1G. I think the PAC gets alot of research dollars as well, and they are sort of isolated out on the west coast, they are all big state schools with lots of fans, add in that travel and time zone issues means no one would want any of them if they broke up, so they are safe for all of those reasons, imo. The ACC? Alot of really good academic/research schools in the ACC, big state schools for the most part with big fan bases for the most part, I think they are safe as well.
The SEC? Not so much on the research side of things. They are the biggest when it comes to football, and I know most sports fans think that sports run the world, but they do not. Sports is a strong 2nd, and are a major factor, but in the long run, when the MAJOR SPLIT happens, it will be based on RESEARCH as much, if not more than sports. Three of the 5 conferences have that going for them.
That leaves the SEC and the Big 12 fighting for the 4th spot.
The Big 12? Outside of Texas/OU, it's really not much. IMO, they are the losers when it all comes down to it.
Is the SEC a bunch of crappy braindead schools? NO, Vandy and Florida are top tier, the rest are mainly 2nd tier, but 2nd tier is better than alot of the non P5 schools out there, and probably better than most in the Big 12. They are also big, and mostly state schools, so they can come up with the money to upgrade their research, and with the south's growing population, the tax base and fan base is there to make it happen. Now some in the Big 12 also have alot going for them, but too many do not. OSU, KSU, even Kansas, don't have alot going for them. I don't know enough about TCU, TT, Baylor, but I'm guessing they don't have much going for them outside of some decent sports and possibly a lot of fans? None of those 3 were original Big 8 member, either, so just as easily as they were added, I think they get left out.
Looking at the ACC and Big 12. Personally I think the ACC is stronger in every sport that matters, except football, but with research dollars mattering more than sports, that gives the ACC a stronger foundation to work with. So I see the Big 12 as being the conference that is broken up.
JMHO.
So the B1G, SEC & ACC have 14 if you don't count Notre Dame, and the Pac has 12, that leaves room for 10 teams in the 4 Super Conferences. BEFORE any current teams are dropped.
Who are those 10 teams and where might they end up? Who might get dropped, and who then gets left out?
First of all, does the B1G drop any teams? Rutgers is the most vulnerable to this. I can't see them dropping anyone else, and because a better option might not be found, they might stay loyal to Rutgers, but as they are the most recent add, they might opt to drop them? Does the Pac drop anyone? Utah as the latest add, and OSU/WSU are the most vulnerable, but with only 12 with those 3 teams, I don't see them dropping OSU/WSU, geography might be those 2 schools savior. Utah? Well, their bb and fb have done quite well, so I think that saves them. The ACC? Wake Forest and VT are the two most vulnerable, imo. What do they add? I'm not sure, they could be awesome research schools, but neither seems to add much sports wise, so when push comes to shove, I could see both of them getting the boot. But like I said, I don't know enough about those 2 schools, so I could be convinced otherwise. The SEC? I could easily see the SEC unloading Arkansas. What do they contribute? I know that alot of people talk trash about the Miss schools, but they are big state schools with lots of fans, and very long history in the conf, with the growing population down south, I just don't see it happening, and I think both are at least 2nd tier when it comes to research dollars, so you'd be gaining a little maybe on the sports side but losing alot in research money? Don't see it happening. Now Missouri on the other hand, being a late add that hasn't really contributed much, I could see them being left behind possibly? All of that said, I don't see any absolutes, so I'll assume none get dropped.
1. Notre Dame - It will only happen because of the force of the other 63 teams being willing to leave them out. I HOPE THEY DO GET LEFT OUT!!! I think that would be hilarious beyond belief. They deserve to be left out. But if included, I hope they stay with the ACC because I'd hate it if the B1G got them. The only way I'd like it if the B1G did get them, is it would be really enjoyable kicking their arse.
2. Texas - No brainer, and I think geography will force the issue and they and OU will go to the PAC. B1G will NEVER let UT get all they want, and UT/OU/NU all being in the same conf again would not work, imo. Would strengthen the B1G West and weaken the B1G East, which would balance out the conf I suppose? But I don't like the idea of UT coming in and trying to think they deserve more than an equal share or degree of influence. I think that would be the same reason the SEC won't take the pair, either. Enough money and people out in Cali to handle it, and the Pac, being as isolated as they are, may feel desperate enough to work with them to make it all work.
3. USF - This should be the B1G's #1 target. Fastly becoming a huge state school, focus from it's inception was academics and research. Thanks to it being founded by a UMn grad.They'd be an incredible fit into the B1G, as they eventually did get bitten by the sports bug and have a ton of potential in that regard. SEC and ACC don't need another Florida team, the B1G would love one. This gets the B1G to 15.
4. BYU - The Mormon religion is one of the fastest growing religions in the world. These guys will go to the PAC, because of geography, with an outside chance of going to the SEC with UT/OU if they drop Ark as BYU would add way more than Ark.
5. Oklahoma - Only because UT probably won't go anywhere without them and their football remains pretty strong. They along with BYU and UT would bring the PAC to 15. I think the only realistic option for #16, and this is because money talks, is UNLV. But I'm not claiming to be an expert on this issue. Just seems to make sense LONG TERM. The other option could be Kansas, but outside of bb, what does KU offer?
I'm very confident about the above 5. Only sort of confident about the next 2.
9. Cincy/Memphis/UCF - Individually? Maybe Memphis to the ACC and Cincy to the SEC? Both have a florida presence so I think UCF gets left out as it stands. This only if UT/OU don't go to the SEC which is a possibility. ACC already has 15, so only if they drop a team or ND goes to the B1G. They all seem to be favorites, but is that only because most fans are still stuck on the whole sports is all that matters thing, or the media footprint thing? Cincy is a good school, they are trying hard to upgrade their sports and I believe they are trying to upgrade their research as well, which is already pretty good, so if there is only one spot open and it's not the B1G with that empty spot, then I'd say Cincy is the best option of these 3. Memphis? I think they are only talked about because they've done well lately in both cfb and bb. The same could be said about UCF. Do either have anything to offer outside of sports and a media footprint for the right conf? So I think only Cincy comes out of this group.
10. UNLV - Getting PAC to 16. So much money in Vegas, I just think they won't get left out.
?. Kansas - Not sure about this? Is their BB enough? The Pac might go with them, MAYBE? They're best chance might be the B1G stealing Arizona St away from the PAC?
Teams that will probably be left out because they don't have enough to offer.
#1 - Army, Air Force, Navy - They don't contribute anything via research, and their main focus doesn't need to be sports, so it wouldn't be hard for them to shift to a lesser division. And I think they come as a package deal, not meaning they all have to go to the same conf, but they won't be willing to go without playing each other at least once a year.
Kansas State(marginal fb/bb not enough), Oklahoma State(wr is not enough, and occasionally bb/fb), TCU(fb is not enough), UConn(womens bb is not enough), WVU(bb is not enough), TT?, Baylor(fb/bb is not enough, or is it?), Arkansas?, Iowa St(this is a pretty good sports school recently, just don't know where'd they fit or who would want them?)
That leaves 3 unclaimed spots, more if any schools like Arkansas/WF get the boot. I don't know enough about all the rest of the schools out there to make good enough guesses on the last 3. If a gun got put to my head, I'd say UNLV & Kansas to the Pac & ASU to the B1G, putting them both to 16, then UConn to the ACC getting them to 16, Cincy and WVU to the SEC getting them to 16. But I'm not very confident about these last 3/4 pics.
The biggest factor that would through a wrench in this is it is a football/research centric view, sort of ignores the bb aspect of things and all other sports really. It would force SEC schools and a few others to tighten up their academic standards and would cause maybe too big of a divide, as schools that otherwise might get a research grant, might not because they did not get into the Super 64. And would that be the end? Like the Big Dance, might the Conferences offer up the chance for 8 more schools to eventually get in, or maybe 16 more schools? That might be one way of getting schools to focus more on academics and research, as a way of moving up?
My guess is if anything like this happened, it would be a football only move. Thus avoiding alot of the issues that otherwise might come up. I've probably over thought the whole issue? But I find it interesting so whatever.
I welcome any and all opinions in favor or in opposition to what I am posting.
