Conference Power Rankings - YTD Review

[ericd7633]

Answer the question. They would be favored based on what ?

How Baylor is shredding Vegas: Story behind the big bet that jolted the Bears' BCS odds - BettingTalk

 

[Codaxx]

As an FYI ( as Im sure you know) odds are set based off of public perception to drive betting towards the least likely outcome so that the oddsmakers make the most money. Public perception is that Baylor sores like 90 points per game and that OSU is overrated because they play in the B10. The -6.5 or -7 ( depending on which site you look at) is designed to make it attractive for the public to bet on Baylor because the sharps know that the most likely outcome is a much closer game, perhaps even an OSU win. I find it amusing when people think a team being favored means that "Vegas" considers them better. Alot of the time thats not the case, its all about the benjamins brother. LOL

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Vegas is not much different than the stock market. I am not sure why people think it is vastly different. Vegas pools the collective opinion of "investors" and trades it for the commission. Unless you believe people bet contrary to their best interest than it is about as good a measure of quality of a team as we have. Pre-games and hypothetical lines are clearly subject to more issues.

 

[ericd7633]

Again, just because Baylor would be favored doesn't mean they would win, it would be a toss up game IMO. What kind of moron am I to think that the 4 vs. 5 teams in the county would be a toss up?

 

[Codaxx]

How Baylor is shredding Vegas: Story behind the big bet that jolted the Bears' BCS odds - BettingTalk

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NC odds are garbage. They are buyer only mkts. That is why the odds generally add up to 140-150% and higher. Suckers bets.

 

[Smart]

I'm not sold on Wisky either.

They are 3-1 in the B1G. Their 3 wins are against teams that are a combined 0-10 in the conference.
Their other 2 wins are Massachusetts and Tenn Tech.

They don't play Michigan, MSU, or Nebraska so they will likely not have a chance for a good win all year...at least until bowl time.

BYU not good enough for you?

Not to mention @ ASU (I think ignoring this win for conference ranking purposes is much worse than team ranking purposes; It's not ASU's fault the refs fucked up. It is entirely the PAC's fault and they should not be rewarded for it).

 

[Sox33OSU]

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FEI and S&P+ has Baylor's defense ranked higher than OSU at this pt of the season. Not sure that will hold up, but the defenses are closer than you probably think. (that was coming into this week, not updated for this week yet)

Once again, Baylor has faced 1 team with a winning record - Buffalo. What offense have they faced that is even remotely talented? Baylor has faced nobody that's even close to being as good as Wisconsin, they haven't faced a QB as good as Hackenberg on Penn State, and OSU faced a fully healthy Northwestern team that, when healthy, would be one of the best offenses in the Big 12 without question. Here are the offenses they've faced -

Wofford - FCS
Buffalo - 55th in scoring offense
ULM - 110th
WVU - 96th
KSU - 58th
Iowa State - 87th
Kansas - 116th

No wonder their defense looks awesome.

 

[rmilia1]

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Vegas is not much different than the stock market. I am not sure why people think it is vastly different. Vegas pools the collective opinion of "investors" and trades it for the commission. Unless you believe people bet contrary to their best interest than it is about as good a measure of quality of a team as we have. Pre-games and hypothetical lines are clearly subject to more issues.

Kind of correct but Vegas isnt "betting", Vegas is stimulating other people to bet and doing so in a manner that makes it most likely for them to lose. Thats how all those pretty buildings got built There are alot of sharps that have gotten VERY rich solely betting against the publics general opinion. I dont think people bet contrary to their best interest, people just really have no clue how to bet in the first place.

 

[ericd7633]

BYU not good enough for you?

Not to mention @ ASU (I think ignoring this win for conference ranking purposes is much worse than team ranking purposes; It's not ASU's fault the refs fucked up. It is entirely the PAC's fault and they should not be rewarded for it).

BYU is a good team IMO, but Wisconsin hasn't played them yet. That is going to be a good game IMO.

 

[Codaxx]

Once again, Baylor has faced 1 team with a winning record - Buffalo. What offense have they faced that is even remotely talented? Baylor has faced nobody that's even close to being as good as Wisconsin, they haven't faced a QB as good as Hackenberg on Penn State, and OSU faced a fully healthy Northwestern team that, when healthy, would be one of the best offenses in the Big 12 without question. Here are the offenses they've faced -

Buffalo - 55th in scoring offense
ULM - 110th
WVU - 96th
KSU - 58th
Iowa State - 87th
Kansas - 116th

No wonder their defense looks awesome.

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These rankings factor in SOS. It is not prefect but solid.

 

[Sox33OSU]

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These rankings factor in SOS. It is not prefect but solid.

What rankings? Are you trying to say any of those teams are as talented offensively as Wisconsin, Penn State or a healthy Northwestern? Come on man...I truly can't name a single player from any of those teams.

 

[Codaxx]

Kind of correct but Vegas isnt "betting", Vegas is stimulating other people to bet and doing so in a manner that makes it most likely for them to lose. Thats how all those pretty buildings got built There are alot of sharps that have gotten VERY rich solely betting against the publics general opinion. I dont think people bet contrary to their best interest, people just really have no clue how to bet in the first place.

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but sharps and big money balance out the money. I dont think people randomly put money down in enough amounts to counter act professional gamblers. I am simply saying by Friday that Vegas pretty much reflects the public perception of a game.

 

[Sox33OSU]

BYU is a good team IMO, but Wisconsin hasn't played them yet. That is going to be a good game IMO.

BYU is going to have to play a nearly perfect game to win. They can kill Texas and then lose to 2-6 Virginia, so it's hard to tell. Wisconsin is a pretty consistent team on both sides of the ball. I could see Wisco winning this one by 3 TDs.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Wow, let's try this again. Reading comprehension is tougher for others, I guess.

I said it's stupid that your entire argument is that (insert team) is better than Ohio State without any kind of logic or evidence behind it. Aside from Alabama, none of those teams have proven to be as good as Ohio State. We're 5th in the nation in scoring offense and 15th in scoring defense. We've beaten 4 teams that currently have a winning record. Meanwhile I see LSU struggle to get past a bad FCS team until the second half, healthy Georgia is nothing but a hypothetical (the most recent common opponent we had, 2012 Nebraska, was beaten far more convincingly by OSU), Ole Miss is a 5-3 team that has accomplished literally nothing in god knows how long, Mizzou is a flash in the pan who has also accomplished nothing, A&M has no defense, Auburn is a nice team that will likely get flattened by Bama, and South Carolina scares nobody at all. Ohio State has a better coach than all of those teams and better talent than all of those teams.

Urban Meyer has NEVER beaten Auburn not with Tebow not when he won the national championships we owned him.

Malzhan > Meyer
Spurrier > Meyer
Saban > Meyer
Freeze = Meyer

Sumlin - lets see what he does without JF.

Bottom line you have the best QB of all these teams (I like Miller better than JF) but the other talent is pretty comparable for most of the teams position by position.

 

[Codaxx]

What rankings? Are you trying to say any of those teams are as talented offensively as Wisconsin, Penn State or a healthy Northwestern? Come on man...I truly can't name a single player from any of those teams.

S&P and FEI both factor in SOS of the opponent. So there is an adjustment to the fact that they played a weak offense.

 

[Codaxx]

THis may help you. Baylor is averaging 168% yards of offense compared to their opponents average opponents offense. OSU is at 123%. On defense Baylors has held is opponents to 81% of their opponents average offensive output. Ohio State is holding opponents to 98% of their average output.

 

[Sox33OSU]

THis may help you. Baylor is averaging 168% yards of offense compared to their opponents average opponents offense. OSU is at 123%. On defense Baylors has held is opponents to 81% of their opponents average offensive output. Ohio State is holding opponents to 98% of their average output.

When you play against shitty teams, the disparity between team A (the good team) and team B (the bad team) is much larger. In other words, when you play a shitty defense/offense, it's easy for a good team to shut them down even more than the other teams they face. When a team has a good offense/defense, it's harder for a good team to shut them down or move on them that much more, because the offense/defense is good.

Bottom line is this - OSU has faced a harder schedule than Baylor in terms of opposing offenses, and it's not really close, yet they're only allowing a little more than 3 more points per game. OSU easily has the horses to run with Baylor on offense, even if Braxton were to get hurt (can't say the same about Baylor). That alone suggests we'd be able to beat them in a head-to-head matchup.

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

As of right now, using Sagarin's "Predictor" rankings, Baylor would be a 4.9 pt favorite against OSU on a neutral field.

Also, Sagarin has Baylor's scheudule ranked 96, and OSU's schedule ranked at 69

 

[Codaxx]

When you play against shitty teams, the disparity between team A (the good team) and team B (the bad team) is much larger. In other words, when you play a shitty defense/offense, it's easy for a good team to shut them down even more than the other teams they face. When a team has a good offense/defense, it's harder for a good team to shut them down or move on them that much more, because the offense/defense is good.

Bottom line is this - OSU has faced a harder schedule than Baylor in terms of opposing offenses, and it's not really close, yet they're only allowing a little more than 3 more points per game. OSU easily has the horses to run with Baylor on offense, even if Braxton were to get hurt (can't say the same about Baylor). That alone suggests we'd be able to beat them in a head-to-head matchup.

this stat has no SOS component in it, but you have to understand the pt of it.
Baylor faces a defense that gives up 500 yds. They put up 750 that is 150%. They get a 1.5 score
OSU faces a defense that gives up 250. They put up 375. That is 150% and a 1.5 score.
It is more accurate barometer in Dec than in October, but it is reflecting the relative performance.

To your pt Baylor defense has faced the 120th hardest schedule to date. Ohio State has faced the 95th hardest.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Urban Meyer has NEVER beaten Auburn not with Tebow not when he won the national championships we owned him.

Malzhan > Meyer
Spurrier > Meyer
Saban > Meyer
Freeze = Meyer

Sumlin - lets see what he does without JF.

Bottom line you have the best QB of all these teams (I like Miller better than JF) but the other talent is pretty comparable for most of the teams position by position.

Malzahn has never faced Urban as a head coach, so I'm not sure where you get that from. Your teams from then have none of the same players or coaches now, so there goes that.
Meyer was 4-2 vs. Spurrier in his 6 years at Florida and has also accomplished exponentially more in his career as a coach, so once again, I'm not sure where you get that from.
I never once said Meyer was better than Saban or that OSU was better than Bama.

Miller is the best QB of the bunch, the combination of Hyde/Hall/Wilson is better than any RB stables at those schools aside from maybe Bama. Our WRs have played fantastically, our OL is experienced and among one of the best in the nation. Our defense has it's weaknesses but it still among the top 15 in the nation in points against.

Care to take yet another crack at this argument or are you done yet?

 

[Jonny Valtimore]

I honestly wonder if any of you ranking the ACC above the B1G even watch college football. Outside FSU the ACC has looked awful. The entire conference is living off wins vs Florida, and Georgia, both teams that are currently not even ranked.

Clemson, VT, and Miami are all seriously flawed teams that have squeeked by or lost games that true top 20 type teams would have no trouble winning.

The B1G is way deeper than the ACC and if you're debating it I doubt you've watched anyone in the B1G play.