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iowajerms
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Posted 4 days ago - Biggest holes for all 32 NFL teams
We're six days away from the official start of NFL free agency, and we're four days away from the start of the "legal tampering period." Meanwhile, all eyes were on Indianapolis for the NFL combine last week, and fans are excited to see where their favorite teams go in the draft in April.
What is the biggest need for each of the 32 NFL franchises? Football Outsiders looks here at the biggest hole on each team's roster as of the beginning of March.
Pieces might refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here. Sports Info Solutions' charting metrics referenced below are available via subscription at FootballOutsiders.com.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Secondary -- as usual
We have identified safety or cornerback as Dallas' biggest need in 2012, 2013 (twice), 2014, 2015 and 2017. We also included the secondary in questioning Dallas' "entire defense" in 2014.
The Cowboys' constant failure to find quality players in their defensive backfield is getting ridiculous. Three Dallas cornerbacks -- Anthony Brown, Jourdan Lewis and Orlando Scandrick -- qualified for Sports Info Solutions' charting tables due to usage in 2017, but none made the top 40 in success rate. The Cowboys were 21st in coverage against No. 1 wide receivers and 23rd against No. 2s. At safety, Jeff Heath was a nonfactor in his first season as a full-time starter, with more missed tackles (11) than defeats (six).
Byron Jones was in the top 10 among safeties with 20 defeats, so you'd think there would be at least one secondary spot nailed down for Dallas headed into 2018. However, by the end of the season, the Cowboys were regularly pulling Jones off the field for about 25 percent or more of the team's defensive snaps. ESPN's Todd Archer reported that the Cowboys might move Jones back to corner, where he played as a rookie in 2015. That would close one hole for Dallas but open another.
It's not that Dallas hasn't tried to find defensive backs. Since 2012, the Cowboys have drafted more than a dozen safeties and corners. Only three of those players, though, are likely to be NFL starters in 2018. Jones is one, and Lewis is another; Morris Claiborne, now with the Jets, is the third. The Cowboys also guaranteed $4 million to Nolan Carroll in free agency last year. Carroll rewarded them by starting all of two games before being cut in mid-October. For whatever reason, the Cowboys regime has completely failed to scout, acquire and develop talent in the defensive backfield for the better part of a decade.
New York Giants: Offensive line
Usually, when a team finishes 30th in both adjusted sack rate and pressure rate, we would say the pass rush is its biggest need. However, Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon have a combined cap hit of $34.5 million in 2018. Barring an Osweiler-to-Cleveland type of trade in which the Giants give up a draft pick just to escape a contract, neither player is going anywhere. New York simply will have to hope new defensive coordinator James Bettcher can coax better production out of them than his predecessor, Steve Spagnuolo, did.
New York's offensive line was quite a mess in 2017. Ten linemen started at least one game for the Giants, and only three (John Jerry, Ereck Flowers and Brett Jones) started more than eight. The Giants gave up 34 sacks, which is less than most teams but a lot for a team with Eli Manning at quarterback. Manning's quick release makes him very hard to bring down, but he was sacked 31 times last season, the second-highest total in his career, despite missing a start for the first time since 2004. Manning has taken five-plus sacks in a game only 10 times; two of those came last season against the Chargers and Lions. Now the line could be in for a major overhaul, as three starters (Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg and D.J. Fluker) are about to enter free agency.
The trade for Alec Ogletree cost the Giants fourth- and sixth-round draft picks this year, leaving them with only five total picks in April. Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, one of the top overall prospects on the board, will be there for the taking at No. 2 should New York pass on the option to grab a franchise passer and choose to ride with Manning until his arm falls off. Regardless, it's imperative that New York comes out of the draft with at least one offensive lineman ready to start in Week 1 in 2018.
Philadelphia Eagles: Linebacker
It's odd, but most recent Super Bowl champions have barely had time to hoist the Lombardi trophy before they had to fix major problems on their roster the following season. The 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl but then had to get to work repairing the offensive line. The Patriots were desperate for cornerbacks a year later. Peyton Manning went and retired for the Broncos, and then the Patriots once again needed defensive help, this time at pass-rusher.
These Eagles, though? This is an awfully solid roster. If anything, they should be more talented come Week 1 than they were in the Super Bowl. They're likely to lose only two starters in free agency, one on offense (running back LeGarrette Blount) and one on defense (linebacker Nigel Bradham). They'll get Carson Wentz and Jason Peters back from injury. Plus they'll add whatever talent they can find in free agency and the draft after trading for Michael Bennett this week. It's pretty hard to find any cracks in the armor here.
That said, it's at linebacker where the Eagles should be most concerned. Bradham's departure would leave Mychal Kendricks as the only returning man at the position who played more than 300 defensive snaps last season. Backups Dannell Ellerbe and Najee Goode are also free agents, so the entire depth chart here could be in for a complete overhaul. The Eagles are hoping that a player such as Alabama's Rashaan Evans or Virginia Tech's Tremaine Edmunds falls to them at the end of the first round. Or they could look to improve at left guard or add depth at running back.
The Eagles are in a quite enviable position here of taking the best player who falls to them -- and even then there might be a better option. Philadelphia has no second- or third-round pick this year due to trades for Wentz and Ronald Darby. No doubt the Eagles will be eager to trade out of the first round and fill what might be their biggest need: draft picks.
Washington Redskins: Defensive line
Washington was a team of extreme strengths and weaknesses along the defensive front. The Redskins had the best pressure rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. That's a credit to the edge rushers, primarily Ryan Kerrigan (37.0 pressures), Preston Smith (31.0) and Junior Galette (25.0). However, they were dead last in adjusted line yards allowed. The blame for that can be laid at the feet of Stacy McGee, Ziggy Hood and Matthew Ioannidis.
When evaluating 3-4 defensive linemen, it's less about how many plays they make and more about where they make them. Washington's defensive linemen made their plays way too far downfield last season, consistently getting blown off the line of scrimmage. Only 19 defensive linemen in the league made at least 15 run tackles last year and allowed an average gain on those tackles of 3.0 yards or more, and Washington had two of them, in Hood and Ioannidis. Hood's stop rate of 52 percent on run tackles was worst among any starting defensive lineman; Ioannidis was sixth-worst at 58 percent. McGee's average run tackle rate wasn't much better, coming 2.5 yards past the line of scrimmage, though his stop rate of 70 percent was clearly the best of the bunch.
Jonathan Allen, the 17th overall pick in last year's draft, played only five games as a rookie due to a foot injury. If he can get healthy and play up to his draft position, that would go a long way in making Washington a better football team. So would an infusion of youth. Washington has the 13th pick in this year's draft and might get to choose from among (the University of) Washington's Vita Vea, Alabama's Da'Ron Payne or Florida's Taven Bryan.
-- Vince Verhei
We're six days away from the official start of NFL free agency, and we're four days away from the start of the "legal tampering period." Meanwhile, all eyes were on Indianapolis for the NFL combine last week, and fans are excited to see where their favorite teams go in the draft in April.
What is the biggest need for each of the 32 NFL franchises? Football Outsiders looks here at the biggest hole on each team's roster as of the beginning of March.
Pieces might refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here. Sports Info Solutions' charting metrics referenced below are available via subscription at FootballOutsiders.com.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Secondary -- as usual
We have identified safety or cornerback as Dallas' biggest need in 2012, 2013 (twice), 2014, 2015 and 2017. We also included the secondary in questioning Dallas' "entire defense" in 2014.
The Cowboys' constant failure to find quality players in their defensive backfield is getting ridiculous. Three Dallas cornerbacks -- Anthony Brown, Jourdan Lewis and Orlando Scandrick -- qualified for Sports Info Solutions' charting tables due to usage in 2017, but none made the top 40 in success rate. The Cowboys were 21st in coverage against No. 1 wide receivers and 23rd against No. 2s. At safety, Jeff Heath was a nonfactor in his first season as a full-time starter, with more missed tackles (11) than defeats (six).
Byron Jones was in the top 10 among safeties with 20 defeats, so you'd think there would be at least one secondary spot nailed down for Dallas headed into 2018. However, by the end of the season, the Cowboys were regularly pulling Jones off the field for about 25 percent or more of the team's defensive snaps. ESPN's Todd Archer reported that the Cowboys might move Jones back to corner, where he played as a rookie in 2015. That would close one hole for Dallas but open another.
It's not that Dallas hasn't tried to find defensive backs. Since 2012, the Cowboys have drafted more than a dozen safeties and corners. Only three of those players, though, are likely to be NFL starters in 2018. Jones is one, and Lewis is another; Morris Claiborne, now with the Jets, is the third. The Cowboys also guaranteed $4 million to Nolan Carroll in free agency last year. Carroll rewarded them by starting all of two games before being cut in mid-October. For whatever reason, the Cowboys regime has completely failed to scout, acquire and develop talent in the defensive backfield for the better part of a decade.
New York Giants: Offensive line
Usually, when a team finishes 30th in both adjusted sack rate and pressure rate, we would say the pass rush is its biggest need. However, Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon have a combined cap hit of $34.5 million in 2018. Barring an Osweiler-to-Cleveland type of trade in which the Giants give up a draft pick just to escape a contract, neither player is going anywhere. New York simply will have to hope new defensive coordinator James Bettcher can coax better production out of them than his predecessor, Steve Spagnuolo, did.
New York's offensive line was quite a mess in 2017. Ten linemen started at least one game for the Giants, and only three (John Jerry, Ereck Flowers and Brett Jones) started more than eight. The Giants gave up 34 sacks, which is less than most teams but a lot for a team with Eli Manning at quarterback. Manning's quick release makes him very hard to bring down, but he was sacked 31 times last season, the second-highest total in his career, despite missing a start for the first time since 2004. Manning has taken five-plus sacks in a game only 10 times; two of those came last season against the Chargers and Lions. Now the line could be in for a major overhaul, as three starters (Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg and D.J. Fluker) are about to enter free agency.
The trade for Alec Ogletree cost the Giants fourth- and sixth-round draft picks this year, leaving them with only five total picks in April. Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, one of the top overall prospects on the board, will be there for the taking at No. 2 should New York pass on the option to grab a franchise passer and choose to ride with Manning until his arm falls off. Regardless, it's imperative that New York comes out of the draft with at least one offensive lineman ready to start in Week 1 in 2018.
Philadelphia Eagles: Linebacker
It's odd, but most recent Super Bowl champions have barely had time to hoist the Lombardi trophy before they had to fix major problems on their roster the following season. The 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl but then had to get to work repairing the offensive line. The Patriots were desperate for cornerbacks a year later. Peyton Manning went and retired for the Broncos, and then the Patriots once again needed defensive help, this time at pass-rusher.
These Eagles, though? This is an awfully solid roster. If anything, they should be more talented come Week 1 than they were in the Super Bowl. They're likely to lose only two starters in free agency, one on offense (running back LeGarrette Blount) and one on defense (linebacker Nigel Bradham). They'll get Carson Wentz and Jason Peters back from injury. Plus they'll add whatever talent they can find in free agency and the draft after trading for Michael Bennett this week. It's pretty hard to find any cracks in the armor here.
That said, it's at linebacker where the Eagles should be most concerned. Bradham's departure would leave Mychal Kendricks as the only returning man at the position who played more than 300 defensive snaps last season. Backups Dannell Ellerbe and Najee Goode are also free agents, so the entire depth chart here could be in for a complete overhaul. The Eagles are hoping that a player such as Alabama's Rashaan Evans or Virginia Tech's Tremaine Edmunds falls to them at the end of the first round. Or they could look to improve at left guard or add depth at running back.
The Eagles are in a quite enviable position here of taking the best player who falls to them -- and even then there might be a better option. Philadelphia has no second- or third-round pick this year due to trades for Wentz and Ronald Darby. No doubt the Eagles will be eager to trade out of the first round and fill what might be their biggest need: draft picks.
Washington Redskins: Defensive line
Washington was a team of extreme strengths and weaknesses along the defensive front. The Redskins had the best pressure rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. That's a credit to the edge rushers, primarily Ryan Kerrigan (37.0 pressures), Preston Smith (31.0) and Junior Galette (25.0). However, they were dead last in adjusted line yards allowed. The blame for that can be laid at the feet of Stacy McGee, Ziggy Hood and Matthew Ioannidis.
When evaluating 3-4 defensive linemen, it's less about how many plays they make and more about where they make them. Washington's defensive linemen made their plays way too far downfield last season, consistently getting blown off the line of scrimmage. Only 19 defensive linemen in the league made at least 15 run tackles last year and allowed an average gain on those tackles of 3.0 yards or more, and Washington had two of them, in Hood and Ioannidis. Hood's stop rate of 52 percent on run tackles was worst among any starting defensive lineman; Ioannidis was sixth-worst at 58 percent. McGee's average run tackle rate wasn't much better, coming 2.5 yards past the line of scrimmage, though his stop rate of 70 percent was clearly the best of the bunch.
Jonathan Allen, the 17th overall pick in last year's draft, played only five games as a rookie due to a foot injury. If he can get healthy and play up to his draft position, that would go a long way in making Washington a better football team. So would an infusion of youth. Washington has the 13th pick in this year's draft and might get to choose from among (the University of) Washington's Vita Vea, Alabama's Da'Ron Payne or Florida's Taven Bryan.
-- Vince Verhei