Biggest holes for all NFC teams- ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

Posted 4 days ago - Biggest holes for all 32 NFL teams

We're six days away from the official start of NFL free agency, and we're four days away from the start of the "legal tampering period." Meanwhile, all eyes were on Indianapolis for the NFL combine last week, and fans are excited to see where their favorite teams go in the draft in April.

What is the biggest need for each of the 32 NFL franchises? Football Outsiders looks here at the biggest hole on each team's roster as of the beginning of March.

Pieces might refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here. Sports Info Solutions' charting metrics referenced below are available via subscription at FootballOutsiders.com.


NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Secondary -- as usual

We have identified safety or cornerback as Dallas' biggest need in 2012, 2013 (twice), 2014, 2015 and 2017. We also included the secondary in questioning Dallas' "entire defense" in 2014.

The Cowboys' constant failure to find quality players in their defensive backfield is getting ridiculous. Three Dallas cornerbacks -- Anthony Brown, Jourdan Lewis and Orlando Scandrick -- qualified for Sports Info Solutions' charting tables due to usage in 2017, but none made the top 40 in success rate. The Cowboys were 21st in coverage against No. 1 wide receivers and 23rd against No. 2s. At safety, Jeff Heath was a nonfactor in his first season as a full-time starter, with more missed tackles (11) than defeats (six).

Byron Jones was in the top 10 among safeties with 20 defeats, so you'd think there would be at least one secondary spot nailed down for Dallas headed into 2018. However, by the end of the season, the Cowboys were regularly pulling Jones off the field for about 25 percent or more of the team's defensive snaps. ESPN's Todd Archer reported that the Cowboys might move Jones back to corner, where he played as a rookie in 2015. That would close one hole for Dallas but open another.

It's not that Dallas hasn't tried to find defensive backs. Since 2012, the Cowboys have drafted more than a dozen safeties and corners. Only three of those players, though, are likely to be NFL starters in 2018. Jones is one, and Lewis is another; Morris Claiborne, now with the Jets, is the third. The Cowboys also guaranteed $4 million to Nolan Carroll in free agency last year. Carroll rewarded them by starting all of two games before being cut in mid-October. For whatever reason, the Cowboys regime has completely failed to scout, acquire and develop talent in the defensive backfield for the better part of a decade.

New York Giants: Offensive line

Usually, when a team finishes 30th in both adjusted sack rate and pressure rate, we would say the pass rush is its biggest need. However, Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon have a combined cap hit of $34.5 million in 2018. Barring an Osweiler-to-Cleveland type of trade in which the Giants give up a draft pick just to escape a contract, neither player is going anywhere. New York simply will have to hope new defensive coordinator James Bettcher can coax better production out of them than his predecessor, Steve Spagnuolo, did.

New York's offensive line was quite a mess in 2017. Ten linemen started at least one game for the Giants, and only three (John Jerry, Ereck Flowers and Brett Jones) started more than eight. The Giants gave up 34 sacks, which is less than most teams but a lot for a team with Eli Manning at quarterback. Manning's quick release makes him very hard to bring down, but he was sacked 31 times last season, the second-highest total in his career, despite missing a start for the first time since 2004. Manning has taken five-plus sacks in a game only 10 times; two of those came last season against the Chargers and Lions. Now the line could be in for a major overhaul, as three starters (Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg and D.J. Fluker) are about to enter free agency.

The trade for Alec Ogletree cost the Giants fourth- and sixth-round draft picks this year, leaving them with only five total picks in April. Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, one of the top overall prospects on the board, will be there for the taking at No. 2 should New York pass on the option to grab a franchise passer and choose to ride with Manning until his arm falls off. Regardless, it's imperative that New York comes out of the draft with at least one offensive lineman ready to start in Week 1 in 2018.

Philadelphia Eagles: Linebacker

It's odd, but most recent Super Bowl champions have barely had time to hoist the Lombardi trophy before they had to fix major problems on their roster the following season. The 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl but then had to get to work repairing the offensive line. The Patriots were desperate for cornerbacks a year later. Peyton Manning went and retired for the Broncos, and then the Patriots once again needed defensive help, this time at pass-rusher.

These Eagles, though? This is an awfully solid roster. If anything, they should be more talented come Week 1 than they were in the Super Bowl. They're likely to lose only two starters in free agency, one on offense (running back LeGarrette Blount) and one on defense (linebacker Nigel Bradham). They'll get Carson Wentz and Jason Peters back from injury. Plus they'll add whatever talent they can find in free agency and the draft after trading for Michael Bennett this week. It's pretty hard to find any cracks in the armor here.

That said, it's at linebacker where the Eagles should be most concerned. Bradham's departure would leave Mychal Kendricks as the only returning man at the position who played more than 300 defensive snaps last season. Backups Dannell Ellerbe and Najee Goode are also free agents, so the entire depth chart here could be in for a complete overhaul. The Eagles are hoping that a player such as Alabama's Rashaan Evans or Virginia Tech's Tremaine Edmunds falls to them at the end of the first round. Or they could look to improve at left guard or add depth at running back.

The Eagles are in a quite enviable position here of taking the best player who falls to them -- and even then there might be a better option. Philadelphia has no second- or third-round pick this year due to trades for Wentz and Ronald Darby. No doubt the Eagles will be eager to trade out of the first round and fill what might be their biggest need: draft picks.

Washington Redskins: Defensive line
Washington was a team of extreme strengths and weaknesses along the defensive front. The Redskins had the best pressure rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. That's a credit to the edge rushers, primarily Ryan Kerrigan (37.0 pressures), Preston Smith (31.0) and Junior Galette (25.0). However, they were dead last in adjusted line yards allowed. The blame for that can be laid at the feet of Stacy McGee, Ziggy Hood and Matthew Ioannidis.

When evaluating 3-4 defensive linemen, it's less about how many plays they make and more about where they make them. Washington's defensive linemen made their plays way too far downfield last season, consistently getting blown off the line of scrimmage. Only 19 defensive linemen in the league made at least 15 run tackles last year and allowed an average gain on those tackles of 3.0 yards or more, and Washington had two of them, in Hood and Ioannidis. Hood's stop rate of 52 percent on run tackles was worst among any starting defensive lineman; Ioannidis was sixth-worst at 58 percent. McGee's average run tackle rate wasn't much better, coming 2.5 yards past the line of scrimmage, though his stop rate of 70 percent was clearly the best of the bunch.

Jonathan Allen, the 17th overall pick in last year's draft, played only five games as a rookie due to a foot injury. If he can get healthy and play up to his draft position, that would go a long way in making Washington a better football team. So would an infusion of youth. Washington has the 13th pick in this year's draft and might get to choose from among (the University of) Washington's Vita Vea, Alabama's Da'Ron Payne or Florida's Taven Bryan.

-- Vince Verhei

 

[iowajerms]

NFC North

Chicago Bears: Pass-catchers

Rookie head coach Matt Nagy has his work cut out for him. Sure, he has a possible franchise quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky to groom, but what kind of toys will he have for the youngster to play with? In Kansas City, Nagy had an outstanding trio of weapons in Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill. In Chicago, there isn't enough Elmer's Glue to keep Kevin White in one piece. Markus Wheaton wasn't any fun in Pittsburgh, and he's not going to get better in Chicago. Cameron Meredith flashed some potential in 2016, but he is coming off an ACL tear and is a restricted free agent. Kendall Wright and Dontrelle Inman are impending free agents, and neither is a true WR1 or WR2 at this point. Even Josh Bellamy, who was third on the team with 46 targets, is a restricted free agent, and tight end Zach Miller is a free agent after he almost lost his leg due to a dislocated knee.

With all of those problems, you can see why this was the most conservative passing offense in the league last season -- built heavily on failed completions to running backs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. For that reason, any receiver coveted in the draft or free agency can be linked to Chicago. Whether it's a slot receiver or a pass-catching tight end or a speed demon or a jump-ball winner, the Bears should find plenty of upgrades over anyone they currently have or had last season. If that means signing Green Bay rival Randall Cobb should he become available, then so be it. Trubisky is going to need some reasons to throw the ball beyond the line of scrimmage.

Detroit Lions: Running back

This one is tricky because Detroit has done a lot of recent work to build a roster around quarterback Matthew Stafford. He has a very good trio of wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay. The offensive line added T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner last season and hopes to get a full season out of left tackle Taylor Decker again. You could go with tight end as a weakness, but Eric Ebron is under contract for one more season (his fifth-year option was picked up). Defensively, there's either a recent first- or second-round pick or established player at each level.

We end up going back to the familiar story of the Lions not being able to find a quality running back ever since Barry Sanders retired. Ameer Abdullah stayed healthy enough in 2017 (14 games), but he ranked dead last in rushing success rate (35 percent) for a run game that brought up the league's rear in rushing yards and yards per carry. Some of that has to fall on the offensive line that ranked last in adjusted line yards, too. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Lions ranked 29th in yards before first contact per rush (1.97). Even after breaking tackles, the Lions ranked 30th in yards after first contact per rush (1.40). Theo Riddick is solid as a receiving back, but the Lions could still use that workhorse, do-everything back who can be a reliable part of this offense.

Green Bay Packers: Edge rusher

You can argue that the Packers are still lacking in the cornerback department, despite numerous premium draft picks in recent years, or that the tight ends have underwhelmed for years now. Martellus Bennett, in particular, was a big disappointment last season. Those are still needs, but what about a consistent pass-rushing force off the edge? Clay Matthews has hit 8.0 sacks only once in the past five years, and he'll be 32 in May. Nick Perry had a career season in 2016, but the Packers didn't have any defender rank in the top 50 in pass pressures in 2017.

Because this is Green Bay, the draft is the expected option to get better at this position. Mike Pettine is taking over for Dom Capers at defensive coordinator, so Green Bay should be fielding another aggressive 3-4 defense. The outside linebackers tend to shine in that scheme, but the Packers could have their work cut out for them in a draft pool that doesn't appear to be overflowing with talented edge rushers.

Minnesota Vikings: Guard

The Vikings have a very good roster, so we almost went with kicker, as Kai Forbath is a free agent who has missed eight extra points in two seasons with the team. Then we almost went with quarterback because this is one of the most unique situations in NFL history, with three viable Week 1 starters all ready to hit free agency after being on the roster in 2017: Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater and Case Keenum. But there's no shortage of options there, and the Vikings are likely to re-sign one of them (or free agent Kirk Cousins) before a hole actually opens up.

So we finally get back to the offensive line, which was the major problem a year ago, but the team helped solve a lot of that issue by adding Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers at tackle and drafting center Pat Elflein. Still, right guard Joe Berger is a free agent and could retire, leaving an opening in the starting lineup. A right guard won't make or break your team's season, but it is Minnesota's biggest weakness, which is a testament to the strong roster the Vikings have assembled.

-- Scott Kacsmar

 

[iowajerms]

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: Defensive tackle

The Falcons don't have too many holes to fill this offseason, but an infusion of youth and athleticism along the defensive line would be a welcome addition for a defense that has made strides every season under coach Dan Quinn. Grady Jarrett and Takkarist McKinley look like superstars in the making, while Vic Beasley still can be a productive player as he moves back to defensive end. However, with the potential losses of Dontari Poe, Courtney Upshaw and Adrian Clayborn (who occasionally kicked inside on passing downs), they'll need to add some young blood on the interior through the draft and free agency. Having a young trio of Jarrett, Beasley and McKinley is a major plus for the Falcons, but they'll need to keep establishing depth along the defensive line if they want to go on another postseason run.

Atlanta ranked 28th in defensive success rate on short-yardage runs, which speaks to their need to get a bit more talented at the line of scrimmage. Veterans such as Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson will be names to watch for the Falcons.

Carolina Panthers: Wide receiver

It feels like this has become a yearly offseason talking point, but the Panthers desperately need to find more weapons at receiver for Cam Newton. By the end of the season, Kaelin Clay and Brenton Bersin were receiving starter reps. This is partially due to the injury of Curtis Samuel, but he wasn't exactly lighting up defenses while he was healthy. Devin Funchess was the only Panthers receiver to register enough targets (minimum 50) to qualify for our wide receiver DVOA tables, in which he ranked 33rd among 86 qualifying players. Within Carolina's division, the Falcons (Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu) and the Saints (Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr.) each had two receivers finish higher in DVOA than Funchess.

If the Panthers hope to maximize what Newton has to offer, they'll need to do whatever it takes to give him the receiver talent that he needs.

New Orleans Saints: Defensive line

New Orleans was poised to have one of the more intriguing defensive tackle duos in the league after Sheldon Rankins and Nick Fairley picked up steam in the back half of the 2016 season. Unfortunately, a heart condition forced Fairley to miss all of 2017, and as Rankins developed, his play didn't become as consistent as the Saints would have hoped. Rankins still has the potential to grow into an upper-echelon defensive tackle, but he needs a potential running mate for the future after Fairley was cut early in February.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Defensive tackle

Besides Gerald McCoy, the Buccaneers don't have any playmakers along the defensive line. They already have cut ties with free-agent bust Chris Baker, leaving the unit razor-thin. Their lack of defensive line talent was a major reason they finished the season 32nd in defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay ranked dead last in total sacks and adjusted sack rate. They also were the worst defense in the league when it came to runs coming off the side of the left tackle.

Luckily, Tampa Bay has $71 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap. A reunion with former Tampa first-round pick Adrian Clayborn would make sense, as would spending the seventh overall pick in this year's draft on a defensive lineman.

-- Charles McDonald

 

[iowajerms]

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals: Quarterback

Carson Palmer has called it quits after 15 seasons, which means the Cardinals have no quarterbacks under contract. Unless new head coach Steve Wilks wants to experiment with a David Johnson-based single wing attack, Arizona is going to need to add multiple quarterbacks this offseason.

The Cardinals will have to decide if they're looking for a veteran quarterback to build around or simply a bridge while they develop a long-term quarterback of the future. With the return of Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald on offense and the fourth-best defense by DVOA, there's certainly an argument for plugging in a veteran and trying to compete. They have only $22.2 million of cap space, though, which makes them heavy underdogs in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. That might make someone such as AJ McCarron, Josh McCown or "whichever quarterback Minnesota doesn't re-sign" a solid option for a couple of years while they develop someone with more potential.

The Cardinals were too good for their own good in 2017. They're stuck with the 15th selection in the draft; all the top quarterbacks likely will go off the board long before they get to pick. That means they're likely going to have to settle for the next tier down of college prospects -- Washington State's Luke Falk or Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph, perhaps -- to groom someone for the long term.

Los Angeles Rams: Edge rusher

For all the praise the Rams' defense received in 2017, that unit found itself struggling, at times, to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Its pressure rate of 31.2 percent was firmly in the middle of the pack -- and that can be attributed mainly to Aaron Donald. Donald had 52 pass pressures on the season, but no one else on the team hit 20.

Robert Quinn used to be one of the top edge rushers in the game, but he hasn't hit double-digit sacks since 2014. Blame it on the lingering effects of injuries that ended both his 2015 and 2016 seasons or the shift to a 3-4 outside linebacker in Wade Phillips' scheme, but Quinn hasn't been the consistent terror he once was. It looked like the Rams were hanging on to Quinn when they declined to include him in the Marcus Peters trade, but shortly thereafter, they dealt him to the Dolphins for a middle-round draft pick.

Connor Barwin is a pending free agent and is aging into a more situational player -- he's still a solid support piece, but he doesn't shed blockers like he did in his 20s. No one else on the roster keeps opposing offensive tackles up at night.

There isn't exactly a bumper crop of free-agent pass-rushers on the market this year, so keeping Barwin on a short-term, cheap deal might make sense. The Rams then could pair him with a first-round pick such as LSU's Arden Key or a middle-tier free agent such as Aaron Lynch. Let's be honest: The Rams' biggest need is, by a wide margin, the least crucial need in the division. We're talking about shoring up a team that finished fifth in adjusted sack rate last season, after all. Adding more pop to the pass rush could take a frightening defense and make it absolutely unstoppable.

San Francisco 49ers: Interior offensive line

The 49ers have plenty of issues to address if they want to be competitive in 2018. Their starting cornerbacks finished in the bottom seven in success rate among qualified players. They ranked just 22nd in defensive pressure rate and could use some more talent at edge rusher. They could use a true No. 1 receiver to open up the offense. But if you've just spent more money than anyone in history on a quarterback, your top priority has to be keeping him upright, so we'll focus on the offensive line. The 49ers allowed 43 sacks and 116 quarterback hits in 2017, and though Jimmy Garoppolo did a better job avoiding pressure than Brian Hoyer or C.J. Beathard, those numbers have to go down.

The 49ers gave center Daniel Kilgore a three-year extension, which is a head-scratcher. Kilgore is, at best, serviceable, and has a difficult time dealing with complicated stunts or pressures up the middle. He's good for at least one baffling blown block a game and really should be a swing backup as opposed to the starter at center. At guard, former first-round pick Joshua Garnett missed all of 2017 with a knee injury and wasn't winning a camp battle with Brandon Fusco before he went down. Fusco's a free agent who struggled at times when right tackle Trenton Brown was out, though he was far from the weak link on the line. That would be left guard Laken Tomlinson, whose lack of mobility made him both a bad fit for the 49ers' outside zone scheme and an easy target for interior pass-rushers. All three spots could stand to be upgraded.

The 49ers still have the fifth-most cap room in the league, even after the Garoppolo deal, so they'll be attached to every free-agent lineman available. Andrew Norwell, Justin Pugh and Josh Sitton sit atop their wish list. Alternatively, they could hope Notre Dame's Quenton Nelson falls to them in the draft; on paper, he's a great fit for the system, though it's unlikely he'll be there for him at No. 9.

Seattle Seahawks: Offensive line -- as usual

We have now highlighted offensive line as the Seahawks' biggest weakness in every offseason stretching back to 2014. We'll probably be here saying the same things in 2019. The Seahawks, on a very basic philosophical level, do not invest in the offensive line position.

The Seahawks ranked 31st in pressure rate, forcing Russell Wilson to dodge defenders on 36.7 percent of offensive plays in 2017. They ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate and 31st in adjusted line yards. For the fifth straight season, they gave up more than 40 sacks. Their 121 QB hits allowed were third-most in the league. All of this is with Wilson, who might well be the best quarterback in the league at avoiding pressure, so if anything, the raw numbers are flattering Seattle's line. The Seahawks did finally move on from Tom Cable, which has to help -- the Seahawks gave up an even 300 sacks in Cable's six-year run as offensive line coach. Perhaps now the Seahawks will try to draft offensive linemen to play offensive line, rather than hoping converted tight ends, defensive ends or basketball players can protect their MVP-caliber signal-caller.

The Seahawks need to add multiple players to their line this offseason. Acquiring Duane Brown during the 2017 campaign to shore up the left tackle position was a great start. They need to repeat that on the right side, where Germain Ifedi led the league in penalties and is terrible in space. They might be able to get more value out of Ifedi by moving him back inside to his original guard position, though he was terrible there as a rookie in 2016. None of Luke Joeckel, Oday Aboushi or Ethan Pocic was at all acceptable inside in 2017, though Pocic might improve if the Seahawks pick a position for him and stick with it. No matter what, an immediate talent infusion is needed.

-- Bryan Knowles

 

[PhoenixEagles1]

Sounds great to me!