Another Gonzaga Discussion

[Great Dayne]

Zag probably will be undefeated until tourney time. Huge prediction I know.

0% chance they lose a game in conference. It should be illegal to have two 7 footers that good on the same damn team.

 

[CatsTopPac]

0% chance they lose a game in conference. It should be illegal to have two 7 footers that good on the same damn team.

I'd put Markkanen and Ristic as the two best 7-footers on the same team, personally. But those two for GU are a force! I'd be shocked if GU lost before the second weekend of March.

 

[Gopherfan84]

For you Zag haters out there, the person you should be cursing out is Jan Gangelhoff. As abhorrent as it was, if she didn't blow the whistle on us on the eve of a 1st round game with the Zags in 1999 and waited until after we were out, we probably beat the Zags (which we almost did extremely short-handed) and they may have never become a household name nationally (they went to the Elite Eight that year).

That said, there's part of me that would love to see them run the table and for us to get the 8 or 9 in their region and put an end to their chance at history.

 

[ericd7633]

Karnowski, Collins and Tillie is a potential NBA front line. And that doesn't even include Williams who transfered from a P5 program. NWG is the best PG they've had on a potential FF team. Pangos and Ravio were good but they aren't NWG level. That's why I think this is Gonzagas best team they've ever had and why its their best chance to get to a FF.

This team is loaded.

 

[douggie]

Mark Few is a damn good coach. When SMC made an early run after being down 10 points to tie it up, Few called TO and Gonzaga clamped down defensively and led the rest of the way with really no runs by the Gaels. He's built that program to be an NCAA team every year. This year they have all the pieces to make a solid run. But I don't think they will make it to a FF though. They are slow and methodical on offense and move from inside -out as everything runs through Karnowski. If they run up against a hot run and gun team who can shoot lights out and rebounds, get Karnowski in foul trouble, they could be in trouble.

 

[ericd7633]

For you Zag haters out there, the person you should be cursing out is Jan Gangelhoff. As abhorrent as it was, if she didn't blow the whistle on us on the eve of a 1st round game with the Zags in 1999 and waited until after we were out, we probably beat the Zags (which we almost did extremely short-handed) and they may have never become a household name nationally (they went to the Elite Eight that year).

That said, there's part of me that would love to see them run the table and for us to get the 8 or 9 in their region and put an end to their chance at history.

And then proceeded to hire Monson

Although walking into that situation wouldn't have been easy for anyone.

 

[Gopherfan84]

And then proceeded to hire Monson

Although walking into that situation wouldn't have been easy for anyone.

Yeah. John Wooden in his prime might have had a hard time building a consistent winner until after the sanctions were lifted. Monson did about as well as anybody could have under the circumstances.

 

[redseat]

Yeah, they are a quality team and record wise deserve to be # 1 but truly what competition have they faced? I think they only competition they will face is during the Big Dance...

Do I think they can win it all this year? Until they play tougher opponents I honestly can't answer that.

 

[Loneranger]

I'd put Markkanen and Ristic as the two best 7-footers on the same team, personally. But those two for GU are a force! I'd be shocked if GU lost before the second weekend of March.

but you and I won't be shocked when they get "upset" when it isn't an upset at all. Every yr we're told "this is the best Zags team ever", every year they lose when they aren't supposed to. The fact is they play in a garbage conference and come into the dance as one of the least prepared teams there. It's incredibly difficult spending months playing YMCA teams and then being thrown to the wolves. I'm never going to be a believer until they actually win something other than their meaningless conference title.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Yeah, they are a quality team and record wise deserve to be # 1 but truly what competition have they faced? I think they only competition they will face is during the Big Dance...

Do I think they can win it all this year? Until they play tougher opponents I honestly can't answer that.

Florida- 3 seed
Zona- 3 seed
ISU-tourney
Tennessee-Bubble
Akron-should be tourney
Washington-PAC 12 team at least
SDSU- Down year but good program
St Mary's(at least twice)- tourney

They haven't just played garbage.

 

[jontaejones]

I think it depends on who they draw.

I watched that game. St. Marys is a decent team and all, but god are they soft inside.

I think if Gonzaga draws a team like Louisville, they are screwed. Those guys are a beast inside. They'd do better drawing a team like UCLA.

 

[CatsTopPac]

but you and I won't be shocked when they get "upset" when it isn't an upset at all. Every yr we're told "this is the best Zags team ever", every year they lose when they aren't supposed to. The fact is they play in a garbage conference and come into the dance as one of the least prepared teams there. It's incredibly difficult spending months playing YMCA teams and then being thrown to the wolves. I'm never going to be a believer until they actually win something other than their meaningless conference title.

I mean, they'll get a #1 seed, so anything other than FF or a really close EE showing is underwhelming to me. I'm not trying to shit on GU. I think they have a good team, a solid coach, and a solid program. I just don't think they ever look like a FF team. They look great to start the season, and they essentially stay there. I have to believe that they get to the second weekend this March, but depending on the matchup and location, I just don't see them pushing for a FF. They play solid teams in OCC and they don't face the adversity that makes a team and players grow throughout the year.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Florida- 3 seed
Zona- 3 seed
ISU-tourney
Tennessee-Bubble
Akron-should be tourney
Washington-PAC 12 team at least
SDSU- Down year but good program
St Mary's(at least twice)- tourney

They haven't just played garbage.

Well, I kinda agree. Florida is a solid team. Arizona has definitely gotten better (when they play like it) since playing GU, with the progression of their freshmen and getting Trier back.

ISU and Tenn are eh to decent at best, and I'll throw Akron in there too. Other than that, their schedule is pretty much garbage. Washington is a fucking dumpster fire and the fact that they are P6 school means nothing. SDSU sucks this year too and their win means nothing. And again, the other 20-25 games are all against sub 100 teams (at least 2/3 of their wins). As an OCC, they did pretty well, but all that means is they played some good teams a few months ago.

They haven't just played garbage. But with the exception of St Mary's they haven't played anyone worth anything since December. If we're talking about them getting to the FF or better, hell, even the EE, they have only played 2 teams this season that we can say are definitely S16 or better competition. The only ranked team St. Mary's has played the whole year is GU (and the game in Spokane was a 23-point loss) so they haven't proved it to me yet.

The biggest issue for me is not whether they even win or lose the games against S16 competition, but the fact that they don't even play them. Two games out of 35 is ridiculous. And none since December, so who knows how they'd do against them now, let alone next month? They literally have one challenging game (@ St Mary's) in the last 60% of the season, and that's against a fringe top 25 team. Maybe they face them again in the WCC title game. That's it.

I can't buy them as a a team that can push for a FF when they haven't even sniffed that level of competition in months.

 

[ericd7633]

Well, I kinda agree. Florida is a solid team. Arizona has definitely gotten better (when they play like it) since playing GU, with the progression of their freshmen and getting Trier back.

ISU and Tenn are eh to decent at best, and I'll throw Akron in there too. Other than that, their schedule is pretty much garbage. Washington is a fucking dumpster fire and the fact that they are P6 school means nothing. SDSU sucks this year too and their win means nothing. And again, the other 20-25 games are all against sub 100 teams (at least 2/3 of their wins). As an OCC, they did pretty well, but all that means is they played some good teams a few months ago.

They haven't just played garbage. But with the exception of St Mary's they haven't played anyone worth anything since December. If we're talking about them getting to the FF or better, hell, even the EE, they have only played 2 teams this season that we can say are definitely S16 or better competition. The only ranked team St. Mary's has played the whole year is GU (and the game in Spokane was a 23-point loss) so they haven't proved it to me yet.

The biggest issue for me is not whether they even win or lose the games against S16 competition, but the fact that they don't even play them. Two games out of 35 is ridiculous. And none since December, so who knows how they'd do against them now, let alone next month? They literally have one challenging game (@ St Mary's) in the last 60% of the season, and that's against a fringe top 25 team. Maybe they face them again in the WCC title game. That's it.

I can't buy them as a a team that can push for a FF when they haven't even sniffed that level of competition in months.

I still don't understand why who they play matters in determining whether or not you think they can make a FF? Take schedule out of the equation. Do you think they are good enough to get there? I remember from last year you were big into the analytics aspect. Well they are #1 in KenPom, #1 in Sagarin and #4 in BPI. All those metrics suggest they are good enough to get there.

 

[CatsTopPac]

I still don't understand why who they play matters in determining whether or not you think they can make a FF? Take schedule out of the equation. Do you think they are good enough to get there? I remember from last year you were big into the analytics aspect. Well they are #1 in KenPom, #1 in Sagarin and #4 in BPI. All those metrics suggest they are good enough to get there.

I hear ya. But that is still against a weak SOS. The metrics are far more accurate (imo) against a better SOS. GU is at the top of those metrics simply because they beat a few good/solid teams at the beginning, and then essentially blew everyone else out. They exceeded the predictions of victory against all of their weak opponents. That doesn't hold as much weight to me as a team that is high up against a better SOS.

My bottom line is that I have to believe from all my years watching CBB, and more importantly, all of the comments when I hear coaches consistently make about the value of player and team development from playing better competition. 'So and so really turned a corner today. Such and such great player really made it tough today and so and so learned that what worked in the beginning of the season won't work against the teams that scout you well." "Our team gets lazy on defense down the stretch, going against such and such really showed our guys that if you let your guard down at the end of the season, it'll cost you." "This stretch we have at the end of Feb is going to be really tough, especially heading into the conference tourney, but that will help in March because teams will just keep coming, a better team is always right behind the one you play." I feel like these comments are in every postgame press conference I hear when teams play a really strong opponent. Coaches (hell, everyone) always say that by Feb and March, freshmen aren't freshmen anymore. That's because of the gauntlet of experiences and lessons throughout the season has given them a lot of growth. That isn't as much the case if the team waltzes through most of their season. How often are they actually tested, how much do they actually learn. After December, when were they really put to the test on a lot of this stuff? When did they have the pressure of coming back late in the second half on the road against a top 15 team? When did they have to execute some full court presses, and in-bounds through the other team's press, in order to hold onto victory? When have they had to make key free throws to break a tie in the final 2 minutes? When did someone hit a clutch 3 on the road against a tough defense to sway momentum in the last couple minutes in order to overcome the crowd? They did some of these things maybe once or twice in November, and? Look at the WV/KU game last night. That game helped both of those teams harden up. I can't believe that game did the same for KU as GU beating Santa Clara 90-55. And so on.

Players learn about recognizing and improving weak offense as they play different kinds of strong defenses throughout the season. They learn the same thing on the other side of the ball by playing different types of strong offenses. They face different types of man/zones and offensive schemes that great competition plays against them. A developing point guard learns a lot about how to improve their abilities by playing strong kinds of on-ball defenders throughout the season. Post guys get tougher by going up against the best big men throughout the year. They run into continued pressure situations that they learn from along the way, how to get right what they got wrong, because they play different teams along the way who expose those weaknesses. They get experience going into all kinds of tough environments and work on controlling their nerves (especially the freshmen), and working through playing on big stages against top teams.

All of that to me is not just a 'we did it a couple/few times in November/December and now we're good." All of those situations also bring a team together. Leaders emerge as players step up in those situations to manage the team as an extension of the coach, helping other players control their emotions, and taking last shots.

All of those things don't get worked on and ironed out when a team beats 2/3 of their opponents by like 20 points or more. Their weaknesses aren't thrown on the table and forced to be faced and worked on. They are either fixing it or more teams will key in on it. There is only so much improvement you can really identify for tough games in March, when you are constantly blowing out sub 100 teams for the entire second half (and most of the first half) of the season.

Blowing out all of those teams doesn't tell me that they can beat top teams in March. It tells me that they are a solid team that can run through an easy schedule. You keep telling me that you can't understand how I think that playing strong competition throughout the year is a better indication of March, and I keep pointing out instances like those above. I don't know what else to say.

Maybe another example. I hated the seasons where AZ plays a weaker SOS, both non-con and when the Pac was down. It wasn't just because it hurt our SOS for seeding. It's mainly because I don't feel like a weak schedule gets a team ready for March. I feel like our team is softer when they play a softer schedule. They haven't been in situations that are useful for March. I don't think a team grows much from running through a bunch of terrible opponents, especially in the last half of the season. I want to see AZ play a nice OCC and then a strong Pac. I want AZ to have 4 of 7 games in a row against tourney-level teams at home and on the road so they don't get rest, so they know how to push through when they keep running up against solid competition. I don't just want to see them have a stretch of that in some Nov tourney and that's it, I want to see them do that in Nov, and then again during a stretch in Jan or Feb, and then again for the conference tourney. That way when it happens in March, they don't just think, 'Oh yeah, we did that back in Nov.' These guys are supposed to go through shit together for 4 months and then come out much more polished (individually and as a team) on the other side. I want them to get to March with the confidence, experience, and lessons of having played these types of games all season.

Nothing is an exact science, but this seems as certain to me as anything. You don't want to play a schedule so tough that your guys are too beat up come March. And you don't want to play a schedule that is so weak that you aren't ready for March. You want a balanced schedule of great teams, good teams, and weak teams so that you can play the best to gauge where you are and what you need to improve upon, good teams to keep up the intensity and still be a challenge, and weak teams to give the guys some rest and confidence boosts. I've also heard coaches talk about the benefits of the team for a balanced schedule.

There were a few years that Lute used to really load up the schedule and I feel like it was pretty clear that we limped into March too beat up. And when Miller got here it definitely seemed like our schedule was too weak and the guys hadn't been tested for the situations they faced trying to make deep runs in March.

Even going back to you argument that GU never gets to play good teams at home. Before their last game (into Feb), AZ had played 7 games against the top 50 and NONE of them were at home. Not one. AZ finally played Cal (3 days ago), and hosts USC and UCLA at the end of the month. Out of playing probably a dozen top 50 games total this season, only 3 will be at home (counting the Pac tourney). That's nine games against the top 50 that will not be played at home for AZ, and GU won't even play 9 top 50 games this season. They'll only play 1 top 50 team from Dec 19 until the dance.


I'm not trying to convince you of anything, but it's pretty clear to me that playing the teams you want to beat in the last half of the tourney throughout the season is the best way to be ready to play them when you're trying to hang a banner.

 

[Loneranger]

I mean, they'll get a #1 seed, so anything other than FF or a really close EE showing is underwhelming to me. I'm not trying to shit on GU. I think they have a good team, a solid coach, and a solid program. I just don't think they ever look like a FF team. They look great to start the season, and they essentially stay there. I have to believe that they get to the second weekend this March, but depending on the matchup and location, I just don't see them pushing for a FF. They play solid teams in OCC and they don't face the adversity that makes a team and players grow throughout the year.

couldn't have said it better

 

[Loneranger]

I still don't understand why who they play matters in determining whether or not you think they can make a FF? Take schedule out of the equation. Do you think they are good enough to get there? I remember from last year you were big into the analytics aspect. Well they are #1 in KenPom, #1 in Sagarin and #4 in BPI. All those metrics suggest they are good enough to get there.

the Zags would be better off if they played in the ACC and had 6 losses right now. They would be much better and completely prepared. They go to the tourn. undefeated and largely untested. Like most people I don't think they will do shit.

 

[CatsTopPac]

couldn't have said it better

ESPN just posted an article (with Andy Katz) talking about who could "take over and win a NC by themselves", and he highlights NWG. And this is exactly what I'm talking about. Why him? Because he goes 15.7 ppg and 4.6 apg, and 5+ boards? Does he have a high efficiency rating or points per possession? Awesome.

When has he EVER taken a game over away from home against a ranked opponent? Has he? When has he done it against a top ten team? I mean ever. When has he controlled the game and made the most important baskets in the last minute to carry his team to victory? When has he made the last shot to win a game against one of the best teams in the game? Never. He's not done any of it even once, for UW or for GU. Kid's 22 and never done it.

Now, am I dooming him? Absolutely not. He's quite a talent. I've watched him his whole college career. He's definitely a solid player both scoring and passing. Can he take over and win the NC by himself? I suppose. It's happened before out of the blue. But am I going to at all believe that he can do it going in? How can I, he's never done it before, let alone in March, let alone in a late round. He's been largely below average in his games against top teams outside the state of Washington.

I get that it's easy to look at the #1 undefeated team and say, 'yeah, their best scorer should be able to do it', but he hasn't ever even shown that he can, let alone do it in multiple games to a FF or NC.

Can he, sure, why not. But if he does, it'll be his first game doing so (let alone however many it takes). How are people lining up to say this is at all a safe prediction?

It's the same thing with Gonzaga in general. Nothing has shown me that they can do what people are saying they can. They could surprise for sure, but nothing leads me to believe that I should anticipate them--going in--to get much into the second half of the dance.

 

[ericd7633]

the Zags would be better off if they played in the ACC and had 6 losses right now. They would be much better and completely prepared. They go to the tourn. undefeated and largely untested. Like most people I don't think they will do shit.

Them being tested has no effect on whether or not they are good enough to get to a FF. Its pretty clear they're good enough, I mean if youve actually watched them this year, it is, holding the schedule against them doesn't make sense to me. If you've watched them over the past decade, this is their best team, even better than the Morrison teams. Look I'm not saying they'll get to the FF, because declaring as fact that any one will in this wide open season is dumb. But you have to include them on the short list of teams to win the whole thing.

 

[Gopherfan84]

To play devil's advocate here for a minute. The Big West wasn't a power either when UNLV was a force back in the late 1980's-early 1990's under Tark and they were able to contend in the tournament.