Analysis at the break

[JohnU]

Thoughts, anyone?

 

[eburg5000]

The season has pretty much gone as expected. A few high points Bruce is having a good year. Duvall is looking good. Cozart has done better than expected, and Hamilton is holding his own, and playing some great defense. Catching is not bad either. Suarez reminds me of the old Bruce, and has fallen in love with the HR ball. Phillips is about what we expected, the same with Votto

 

[Rust Cohle]

Time to ship off Duvall and Bruce, their value will never be higher.

 

[JohnU]

Duvall is basically a rookie.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It's hard to imagine the Reds would trade Duvall who is making league minimum.

Even if they considered it, would he bring a return that would improve the team? I say no. His value to the Reds is probably more than what they'd get in return if traded.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds should be disappointed with where they are at this juncture..... I know most fans are.

Everything I'm seeing calls into question the overall organizational ability to turn this quagmire around. From a lack of accountability displayed from the dugout to the moves the front office has made. The talent level isn't a viable excuse. The players didn't acquire themselves or select the coaching staff.

 

[JohnU]

It is so difficult these days to evaluate players who are between the brackets of Mike Trout and Mike Costanzo. Meaning, the bulk of guys who are either everyday players or guys who could get 250 at-bats over a couple of months. Those are the ones who make or break a franchise, IMO, and it's been proven over the decades.

Hell, the Red Sox never won anything with Ted Williams and the Angels will never win anything with Trout.

Steve Carlton win 27 games for a team that won 57.

The point: The Reds need to do a much better job building a roster. I doubt we need to go over the dozens of ways this works, but players who come to the big leagues need to hit better than .228 and not know how to bunt.

Unfortunately, the pitching.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It's a miserable year.

The Reds are on pace to lose 100 games, surprising few. Any fans that thought otherwise were delusional. A starting rotation without anyone having thrown more than 150 innings in a season wasn't likely to be pitching in October unless they were in the Arizona Fall League.

The pitching in general, has been deplorable. I don't know how many starting pitchers they've used, but I expect the number will still grow. The bullpen was historically bad in the first half, so to say it's improved shouldn't be mistaken for a compliment. I keep hearing the Reds intend MOST of the current rotation, to one day be relievers, and they've already done that with several, but the bottom line is, if you have no better control than this pitching staff has, hitters will find them wherever they pitch.

I'd love to be optimistic about the rebuild, but am skeptical that trading All-Stars for minor league "depth", can in itself, produce either MLB wins or butts in the seats, without a better handle on a roster that makes sense both logistically, and fiscally. Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips' collective payroll percentage of total payroll, guarantee the balance of the roster will be playing for less than $2 M per year, on average, and NO TEAM can contend with twenty roster spots making so little money...I am a believer you have to have a core to build a team around, but I would be taking applications to replace at least half that group....because no team can be talented or lucky enough to have a dozen or more pre-arbitration youngsters performing at a playoff level, all at the same time, much less find a half a dozen budget cast-offs to fill impact roles. Alfredo Simon and Brennan Boesch had the right salaries, but, uh...not the right stuff, for example.

Duvall has shown impressive power and plays acceptable LF, but has been declining in BA as the long season, and reduced fastballs prevail. Cozart is having his best offensive year, as is Jay Bruce, and even Hamilton has improved his approach somewhat. Barnhart has done a good job behind the plate, but doesn't project to be a run producer on a team sorely lacking in them. Suarez has been a disappointment on both sides of the game. Brandon Phillips continues his steady decline offensively, and no one knows if Devin Mesoraco will ever be an impact player as a position player again.

Joey Votto has come on lately, but his total offensive absence for a third of the season, and the complete inability to get outs by Reds pitchers, doomed this team to an early hole they can't climb out of. Time isn't on Brandon Phillips side hitting wise, so no one can see if Peraza is a better answer. Jay Bruce being traded isn't going to make the Reds better next year, but it might reduce attendance by a couple hundred thousand. It's a catch-22 I'm not fond of.

Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto is looking like Cy Young in SF, The Toddfather is doing his best Dave Kingman impression ( leading MLB in HR while hitting .210) and The Cuban Missile is likely going to the World Series to get the last out before champaign, and breaking the Cubs curse.