49ers at Rams

[Niner Outlaw]

49ers @ LA Rams

Niners favored by 7.5. Being that big a road favorite gives me some pause. But we have to hope vegas knows what it’s doing.

The Rams stunned the football world with a lopsided week 1 win over Seattle. Seattle was favored by 4. This isn’t the old Rams. At least we think it isn’t. Stafford is back healthy and they have some new looks on offense, particularly on the Oline.

Sure, Stafford threw for 334 yards and had 2 different WRs go over 100yds. But, against Seattle, LA ran the ball 40 times, but only gained 92 yards. Even though it wasn’t working, they did not give up on the run—they dominated TOP and all 3 of their TDs came on the ground!. The Oline seems better than last year’s version. So, the Niner defense will have to be ready for a big dose of the ground game.

While the Rams won the game, It must be noted that the Seattle/Rams score was 13-7 Seattle at halftime. And The Rams did most of their damage in the 2nd half when the Seattle defense just got blown off the field. They put no pressure on Stafford and allowed big cushions to the wideouts.

In the 2nd half, Seattle didn’t put up much of a fight b/c BOTH starting OTs were out of the game injured. Their offense basically died b/c of it. In the 2nd half, the Rams offense outscored Seattle 23-0 and the Rams D held the Seahawks to only 12 net yards. Holy crap!

IIRC, the Niners have won the last 6 regular season meetings with the Rams. So Kyle seems to have their defense figured out and we have to hope that continues. One also has to hope the Niners get their penalties cleaned up. The team had 11 penalties for 85 yards against Pittsburgh. Brendel was called for a penalty in the first half that led to the Niners first punt, and on the Steelers’ lone TD drive, they were helped along by TWO penalties on 3rd downs that gave kept their drive going. So, penalties need to be a point of emphasis.

For the Niners, they also need to watch Burford at RG and McKivitz at RT. Yes, Colton gave up several sacks to TJ Watt, but it went more unnoticed that Burford got his ass handed to him against Pittsburgh. He was repeatedly beaten and also had 3 penalties. Against someone like Aaron Donald, that level of play could be a disaster. I’d expect Donald to get doubled on most downs.

Seattle stopped the Rams running game for the most part, but it was their lack of pass pressure that killed their defense. Pass pressure will be a key in the game. IF the Niners can get after Stafford with our front 4, he’ll turn the ball over (it’s been his history). If he has a clean pocket, he’s still a SB-level QB.

Well, what do we think about this early season divisional road game?

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

It's a divisional game, so anything can happen... but that spread feels about right to me given how both teams are coming in and the history here. A healthy Matt Stafford will make it challenging, but the 9ers are stacked. I'm guessing they'll attack their d-line with clock-killing long drives on the ground. But, Kyle might want to show off his new toy (Purdy) as well.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

I gotta go back and watch the Hawks/Rams game before sunday gets here

 

[Niner Outlaw]

It's a divisional game, so anything can happen... but that spread feels about right to me given how both teams are coming in and the history here. A healthy Matt Stafford will make it challenging, but the 9ers are stacked. I'm guessing they'll attack their d-line with clock-killing long drives on the ground. But, Kyle might want to show off his new toy (Purdy) as well.

Good point. The Rams have never had to play against Purdy. ...I can't believe I'm saying that. I mean, "oh yeah? Wait until you have to play against Mr. Irrelevant, b!tch!"

Jimmy almost always had good games against the Rams and Purdy has shown himself to be better than Jimmy...Hoping there is a long-lasting trend there.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

I'm thinking Ferrell has a sneaky good game

 

[deep9er]

Don't make mistakes or limit your mistakes, and we should pull it out. I also question the spread which is too high IMO, but still think we win. No turnovers would be great, followed by much less penalties. Why are were there so many penalties in game 1?

i will be at this game so would suck bad should we somehow lose.

 

[deep9er]

I'm thinking Ferrell has a sneaky good game

I'm expecting more plays to the outside, plays that can be done faster such like jet sweeps, WR screens, and short routes to the RB. They know our rush can be good, so they'll lean run and outside plays.

We will just do what we do, lean on the run and medium routes.

 

[deep9er]

The Rams didn't run much as i predicted, just a ton of short throws which were effective most of the game. They did run some jet sweeps and screens but it was mainly short throws. This is what Pittsburgh did in the 4th quarter.

But with Stafford sharp most of the game, it worked well against our D. Not many opportunities for our D-line to get sacks so i'd expect the Giants to do something similar. However, will Daniel Jones be as sharp as Stafford? Will Wilks 'tighten up' with a little more man type coverage?

Our offense did about what it normally does, had Purdy connected on just one of those long passes, we'd have pulled away earlier. But i like the fact Shanahan called those deep throws, so upcoming opponents have to know its there.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

McVay had to kick a last second fieldgoal to kill the spread, lol. I'll take solace knowing that he wouldn't have done that if it were a playoff game or a playoff-impacting game. Also, someone should look to see if any of his friends or family members placed a bet on the game!

 

[Niner Outlaw]

McVay had to kick a last second fieldgoal to kill the spread, lol. I'll take solace knowing that he wouldn't have done that if it were a playoff game or a playoff-impacting game. Also, someone should look to see if any of his friends or family members placed a bet on the game!

And McVay’s decision to kick the meaningless FG at the end. It was strange. Why kick the ball instead of a hail mary pass? Maybe to cover the spread. The FG made the game a 7 point game, and the point spreads for the game were anywhere from 7 to 7.5 points. So the FG screwed anyone that bet the Niners and gave the points and definitely screwed some sports books (depending on who they took more bets for).

Very Interesting. Like you said, someone really should examine whether his family or friends had bets on the game.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Niners pull out a close one in LA. 30-23. Team scores 30 points for the 2nd game in a row. That extends the Niners regular season winning streak over the Rams to 9 games. The team’s offense carried the defense for more than a half before the defense finally got some stops.

Purdy had a great first half, but overall it was only a solid say for him. He finished 17 of 25 for 206yds, and he had a rushing TD. For a passer rating of 93.1.
--He managed the game, made some key throws, and didn’t turn the ball over. He even averaged 8.3yds per attempt, and that dwarfed Stafford’s 5.6YPA.
--Opening drive, Purdy was 6 for 6 and nearly perfect in the 1st half.
--he hit some deeper passes to Aiyuk and JJ. The back shoulder to Jennings was a risky throw that JJ really outmuscled the defender for. And that ball went 30yds downfield in the air. Purdy CAN throw deeper passes, but…
--His biggest mistakes were missing the 3 deep balls. All three overthrown by yards. I mean, he wasn’t even close. That has to be fixed b/c we had wideopen guys downfield for TDs. If he hits even one of those, the game wouldn’t have been so close.
--The only punt the Niners had in the first half was the drive where the Niners punted iN Rams territory after Purdy airmailed the deep ball over Aiyuk’s head.
--Purdy had a scary fumble, but he recovered the ball
--Purdy’s first half was so good that even a Rams fan on this board said that “looks like the Niners found something in Purdy, shit.” LOL, it’s true.
--IF this is what a bad game from Purdy looks like, it’s still pretty good. For instance, it’s better than his bad first half against Washington last season.

CMC gets 116yds rushing and a TD on 20 carries and 3 catches for 19 yards. That man has tremendous burst and he showed that on the 51yard run in the first quarter.
--He finished the first half with 88 rushing yards and a TD.
--Deebo was essentially used as the backup RB in this one, getting 5 carries for 38yds and a TD
--we didn’t see Mitchell or Mason get any real time. I think we’re overusing CMC, particularly in the 2nd halves of these 2 games so far. I don’t get it. It’s like Kyle has a blind spot and just can’t get off it (like calling all those off tackle runs for Trey Lance). Can’t keep using CMC this much of he won’t last.
--TDP was a healthy scratch in this game. He was a 3rd rd pick last year…

Aiyuk only had 3 catches for 43yds. On his first catch, he seemed to jam one of his shoulders. He came back into the game and even caught another pass or 2, but he was clearly hampered by the shoulder. We’ve got to rest that shoulder and hope he can play on Thursday night. After the game, Shanny indicated that BA would be fine for Thursday.
--Deebo had 6 catches for 63 yards and 38yds on the ground, including a tackle-and-ankle-breaking TD run
--Jennings had only 2 catches, but one went for 31 yards and the other went for 20.
--Kittle only had 3 catches for 30yds and some nice blocks, but he should’ve been a bigger part of the passing game, particularly when Aiyuk was struggling with the injury.

The Oline was pretty good out there. Purdy was only sacked once. And the team ran for more than 100yds on the ground.
--Donald was a nonfactor in the game. He had a single QB hit. No tackles. No sacks. No impact. Weird
--Williams and Banks in particular had strong games along with Brendel.
--Mckivitz was pretty good in pass pro, but he had some trouble in run blocking in this one. He missed a few that caused some 2nd half run plays for get blown up.

The defense was bad in the first half and opportunistic in the 2nd half. After giving up scores on all 3 Ram first half drives, the Niners D held the Rams to only 6 points in the 2nd half.
--Stafford threw for 34 of 55 for 307yds, 1 TD, 2INTs, for a passer rating of 67.8 and the Rams running game was held in check most of the day.
--we spent a fortune on Bosa and he was mostly a nonfactor in this game—he had 1 TFL and that is it. 2 games, zero sacks.
--The Rams killed the D in the first half. 3 possessions that went: 4 first downs=FG, 5 first downs=TD, 7 first downs=TD. The Niner D, particularly the secondary was getting sliced up and the defensive front four was getting zero pressure. Niner defense started to blitz more in the 2nd half and finally got some pressure on Stafford—which led to the defense finally getting some stops and eventually, a turnover that turned the tide of the game.
--Niners usually only blitz 15% of the time. In the 2nd half, the Niners blitzed 43% of the time, resulting in 9 pressures and a sack as opposed to zero in the first half.
--the only sack by the defense was Warner on a blitz up the middle on 3rd down that ended a Rams drive. It was the only time Stafford had been sacked ALL YEAR!
--Warner was timing his blitzes really well, waiting until the Olinemen committed before he charged
--the run D was pretty good in this one, holding the Rams to only xx yards on the ground on xx carries
--I think Bosa was badly and frequently held in this game. I think he only got 1 call. If I was the Niners, I’d be sending the league office a video of the holds.

Niners secondary gave up 300+yds passing.
--Puka Nacua, a 5th rd rookie had 15 catches for 147yds and Tutu Atwell, a guy who got zero snaps in our last game, got 7 catches for 77yds
--In a game where our secondary got roasted, Ambry Thomas was one of the worst. He left the game ostensibly for an injury, but I think he was benched for Oliver again.
--What happens is that Demo slides over to cover the slot and Oliver covers the outside.
--Oliver came into the game for Thomas and not only got a great tipped INT, but he made a great open field tackle on 4th and 2 to seal the win.
--Still, it was an up and down game for Oliver b/c he also missed the tackle on a 3rd down that moved the chains for the Rams and he had a hands to the face penalty that gave the Rams extra yardage.
--Oliver had a rough PS and Thomas looked ok. But now in the regular season, it’s the exact opposite. It looks like Oliver should be out there over Thomas against the Giants.
--Ward struggled in this one too
--our zone coverage, particularly in the 1st half was destroyed

The STs were good but for a single out of bounds KO by Moody. Moody hit all his FGs and PATs. The big one was a 57yard FG that he nailed with room to spare! The kid has been pretty good this season.

Coaching was good in this one, overall. Shanny had the offense come out aggressive early. For the 2nd straight week. Looks like he finally learned that it’s ok for the offense to play well in the first half.
--aggressive—at the end of the first half, he went with a QB sneak on 4th down at the goalline with time expiring, and he was ready to go for it on 4th and 2 deep in the redzone before a completion was overturned.
--he showed that we can get WRs open deep, so defenses will have to respect the deeper routes. Now, if only Purdy can hit a few of them.
--Shanny’s decision to go for the LONG FG really showed a lot of faith in Moody
--somehow Shanny knows how to neutralize Aaron Donald. I have no idea how he does it, but something in the way our scheme runs, reduces AD’s usual game-wrecking impact.
--Wilks went to more blitzing in the 2nd half, particularly run type blitzes on early down and more man coverage in the 2nd half. It worked. Niners got 2 turnovers and forced a few punts after getting sliced up in the first half.

Overall, the team was far from its best, still scored 30 points, still got 2 turnovers, and still got the win on the road. That is what good teams do and it’s a good sign going forward to this Thursday. IT’ll be the Niners home opener against the NYG. The NYG were blown out in week 1, and were down 20-0 in week 2, but they came back to win the game against a feisty Cardinal defense. The only problem for the NYG is that Barkley, their star RB, was rolled up on in the game and it looks like he’ll be out for Thursday night. The Niners are favored by 10. That is an enormous point spread in the NFL.

 

[deep9er]

Yes, Moonie Ward struggled in this game. He looked really slow out there, so wondering if he has a 'nagging' injury?

Stat wise Ward had 7 tackles i believe, but his coverage was noticibly weak.

Then he missed that easy sack, these are the kind of plays that determines games.

 

[deep9er]

"Cornerback Isaiah Oliver registered six tackles and an interception during the game. He made multiple game-impacting stops yet only earned a 64.7 overall grade. Two missed tackles likely hurt Oliver. However, the cornerback's coverage grade of 75.4 led the team. While he allowed five receptions on six targets, it was only for 29 receiving yards.

By comparison, cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, one of the team's lowest-graded defenders in the game, allowed seven receptions for 85 yards on 11 targets. Cornerback Charvarius Ward allowed 10 receptions for 88 yards on 11 targets."


When Stafford or any QB is throwing quick, short, and sharply, no CB can stop it. So not getting on Ward for this stat but he looked slow chasing receivers. I'm concerned he's not himself right now.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Johnnydel's breakdown of the Rams game is up: