2018 Roster Expectations

[calsnowskier]

Isn't positional difficulty built into WAR? I'm not trying to say Posey isn't that good.

If it is, than I am not sure how much faith I can place in it’s inclusion. Posey at a relative offensive wasteland of a position only ranked 46? Sure, he doesn’t hit HRs, but he is an offensive constant on this shitstain of a team.

 

[LHG]

If it is, than I am not sure how much faith I can place in it’s inclusion. Posey at a relative offensive wasteland of a position only ranked 46? Sure, he doesn’t hit HRs, but he is an offensive constant on this shitstain of a team.

So is Belt.
Consider monthly OPS for this season:
Posey
April - .863
May - 1.054
June - .893
July - .784
August - .709

Belt
April - .840
May - .766
June - .799
July - .842
August - 1.153 (in 15 at bats before the injury)

If anything, at least on a monthly comparison, Posey's production varies more wildly than Belt's.

 

[calsnowskier]

So is Belt.
Consider monthly OPS for this season:
Posey
April - .863
May - 1.054
June - .893
July - .784
August - .709

Belt
April - .840
May - .766
June - .799
July - .842
August - 1.153 (in 15 at bats before the injury)

If anything, at least on a monthly comparison, Posey's production varies more wildly than Belt's.

Fair.

But outside of August, Posey’s worst month was .784. Belt’s best was .842. And again, if you factor in positional importance...

 

[LHG]

Fair.

But outside of August, Posey’s worst month was .784. Belt’s best was .842. And again, if you factor in positional importance...

And outside of May, Belt's worst month was .799. I'm not trying to argue that Belt is better than Posey, just that his consistency isn't any worse (perhaps even more consistent!). Posey is invaluable to the team, but I think Belt isn't far behind in value. He is not a "burden".

 

[calsnowskier]

And outside of May, Belt's worst month was .799. I'm not trying to argue that Belt is better than Posey, just that his consistency isn't any worse (perhaps even more consistent!). Posey is invaluable to the team, but I think Belt isn't far behind in value. He is not a "burden".

I may seem it, but I do not intend to make the case that Belt is a burden either. I just feel that’s when you take his contract into account, he isn’t worth a whole lot vs another player you could likely get through FA or through a kid. The $$ spent is likely better applied elsewhere.

I would be “pissed” if the Giants gave him away for “free”. He has value. I think his trade value is likely higher than his field value.

 

[SFGRTB]

But he I still paid like he should be a top 20-30 player. Not a top 80 player.

And Posey plays the most demanding defensive position while Belt plays the least demanding position on the field.

Belt is the 55th highest paid player among 219 players under contract for next year. He's not being paid like a top player. I'm personally sick of Belt's contract being a point against him, it's really not a bad contract at all. Watch what Eric Hosmer gets this offseason and Belt will look like a bargain.

 

[SFGRTB]

Was it that big of a difference? I haven't bothered to look it up.

I of course forgot one of the biggest examples.... the 2017 Twins. Go from the worst record in baseball to currently in the Wild Card.

 

[calsnowskier]

Shit...

Quick Hits: Sandoval, Tigers, Royals, Paxton

 

[LHG]

Shit...

Quick Hits: Sandoval, Tigers, Royals, Paxton

I think we saw this coming but still . . . (Really Bochy? Its gone well? Your love for veterans is really absurd at times).
And it sounds like Bochy will be back next year as well.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think we saw this coming but still . . . (Really Bochy? Its gone well? Your love for veterans is really absurd at times).
And it sounds like Bochy will be back next year as well.

I feared it, but I didn’t want to believe it.

 

[calsnowskier]

Apparently Hundley loves it here and wants to return next year.

While I like to hear it, I don’t believe it for a second. He will have a chance to start SOMEWHERE next year and/or make more money than the Giants will be willing to pay.

And there are lots of rumors going around that he is the Willie Mac winner this year...

 

[LHG]

With Sandoval's "excellent play" guaranteeing him a roster spot, that locks up at least 25 roster spots. Here's my bubble list, in order from most likely to least likely to be jettisoned, in my opinion:
Roberto Gomez
Trevor Brown
Dan Slania
Josh Osich
Steven Okert
Albert Suarez
Orlando Calixte
Tim Federowicz
Mac Williamson
Jarrett Parker
Chase Johnson
Kelby Tomlinson
Engelb Vielma
Pierce Johnson
Derek Law
Ryder Jones

This list is fluid, as I am just guessing on the likelihood of each. I include both of the guys the Giants picked up this month just because other teams have been known to pick up guys and then let them go during the offseason (although I cannot remember if the Giants have done that before or not).

I think that Gomez, Brown, Slania and one of Osich/Okert are most definitely goners. Suarez, Calixte and Federowicz head up the next most likely group. Its possible all of them get the ax if the Giants are serious about protecting half the guys eligible for the Rule 5, plus adding a few free agents. The list I give, added to the 25 sure spots, would put the 40 man right at 40.

 

[SFGRTB]

So with Matt Cain announcing his retirement, I have to wonder one thing. Will he retire AFTER the Giants decline his option, or will he retire BEFORE? That is a key question.

If Cain retires after his option is declined, the Giants will be on the hook for the $7.5M buyout, which counts against the luxury tax.

If Cain retires before his option is declined, he would forgo the rest of his contract, including the buy out.

This is big, $7.5M is a good chunk of change. But it's tough to see Cain walking away from a $7.5 million retirement check.

I will hold no enmity towards Cain if he decides to wait and retire, but he would be doing the Giants a big solid.

 

[LHG]

So with Matt Cain announcing his retirement, I have to wonder one thing. Will he retire AFTER the Giants decline his option, or will he retire BEFORE? That is a key question.

If Cain retires after his option is declined, the Giants will be on the hook for the $7.5M buyout, which counts against the luxury tax.

If Cain retires before his option is declined, he would forgo the rest of his contract, including the buy out.

This is big, $7.5M is a good chunk of change. But it's tough to see Cain walking away from a $7.5 million retirement check.

I will hold no enmity towards Cain if he decides to wait and retire, but he would be doing the Giants a big solid.

Good question. I'm sure we'll learn more about that in the next month or so.

I know that Cain was away for awhile for personal matters. Did those personal matters play into his decision to retire or is it based solely on his decision to not play elsewhere?

 

[calsnowskier]

No way in hell will he retire pre-buy-out.

And he shouldn’t.

The Giants agreed to the contract, they should honor it. Cain “earned” that money the second the contract was signed. It is his.

And for the record, everywhere I have seen this story mentioned, it says that Cain will retire after the season, not that he is retiring now.

 

[LHG]

No way in hell will he retire pre-buy-out.

And he shouldn’t.

The Giants agreed to the contract, they should honor it. Cain “earned” that money the second the contract was signed. It is his.

And for the record, everywhere I have seen this story mentioned, it says that Cain will retire after the season, not that he is retiring now.

Plus, the contract probably requires some kind of action, regardless of the player's status. Cain may not have a choice in receiving that buyout.

 

[SFGRTB]

No way in hell will he retire pre-buy-out.

And he shouldn’t.

The Giants agreed to the contract, they should honor it. Cain “earned” that money the second the contract was signed. It is his.

And for the record, everywhere I have seen this story mentioned, it says that Cain will retire after the season, not that he is retiring now.

Yeah I don't think he will, just tossing it out there as something to consider. And again, no enmity from me. Why the hell would you turn down $7.5M? I'm for billion dollar owners paying up.

He is riding out the season yes, but he can still retire once the season is over and before the buyout.

 

[SFGRTB]

Plus, the contract probably requires some kind of action, regardless of the player's status. Cain may not have a choice in receiving that buyout.

I don't think so if he retires on his own will. Maybe medically or some other instance, but in this case if he retires on October 2nd, he's forgoing the rest of his agree contract.

We'll probably just see the Giants decline his option, then when Cain is a free agent he will retire.

 

[LHG]

I don't think so if he retires on his own will. Maybe medically or some other instance, but in this case if he retires on October 2nd, he's forgoing the rest of his agree contract.

We'll probably just see the Giants decline his option, then when Cain is a free agent he will retire.

I'm by no means an expert, but I have noticed that guys announce their retirements just before the season is over (even at the start of the season) and if their contract runs out after the season, they still file for free agency. It may just be a procedural move, but I think that their agents probably encourage them to act as if they are not retiring, just in case.

 

[LHG]

I of course forgot one of the biggest examples.... the 2017 Twins. Go from the worst record in baseball to currently in the Wild Card.

The Twins officially clinched the 2nd Wild Card, being the first team to go from 100+ losses to a playoff appearance the next year. Looking over their roster, there is a lot of young guys. Currently, they have 10 guys on their 40 man (plus one more on the 60 day) who is 30 or older. Compare that to the 25 and younger crowd, 16 players. In contrast, the Giants have 13 guys 30 or older (plus 1 on the 60) and 12 players 25 or younger. The difference may not feel that big but consider the two rosters on the 30 plus side. Only 3 of Minnesota's starting 9 are 30 or older. It was the same last year. The Giants lineup regularly consists of 5 to 6 guys in their 30s. Currently configured, a lineup of Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Sandoval, Span, Hernandez and Pence would make for 7 of the 8 regulars in their 30s. I think the similarities between the 2016 Twins and 2017 Giants ends at the numbers of losses. The Giants, even if they would play some of the younger guys like Arroyo, Williamson and Parker more often, won't be nearly as young or talented as the Twins' lineup.