2018 Roster Expectations

[LHG]

Had a very interesting chat with a NYY fan last night. They sort of see themselves in a position similar to us at the moment. We have LA in our division and they have BOS. Both of these teams have what appears to be unlimited spending ability. They really have no cap. I saw something about BOS recently in the NY papers. They say that BOS will go after Stanton and that cost will not be an issue. They will spend what it takes to get what they want. If not Stanton then something else that satisfies their needs.

The Doggies have been in this mode for awhile now. A 242M budget is quite high. BUT ... they have won the division 5 years running now. I don't believe that money will buy you a WS but I'm starting to think that it can buy you a division. The WS is a crap shoot once the playoffs start. The best team over 19-20 games will win it. But a well stocked team will most likely play well through a 162 game schedule.

What the NYY fan fears is what I fear as a SF fan. I don't think we can run with the doggies for 162 games. They just have too much talent. That leaves us to contend with the rest of the NL league (non-disvision winners) to contend for one of the two wildcard slots. Makes it all the more difficult to reach the playoffs.

The NYY fan feels that BOS is moving in the same direction. They will spend what it takes to dominate the division and then spend what it takes to better the playoff run.

I don't know. It seems apples and oranges to me. The Yankees are just going under the cap for a year to clear the penalties and prepare for the vaunted 18-19 offseason free agent crop. Plus, the Yankees have a good young core of players to build around. They've already done their re-build. Of course, now Yankees' fans can relate to what everyone else in their division felt like every offseason.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't know. It seems apples and oranges to me. The Yankees are just going under the cap for a year to clear the penalties and prepare for the vaunted 18-19 offseason free agent crop. Plus, the Yankees have a good young core of players to build around. They've already done their re-build. Of course, now Yankees' fans can relate to what everyone else in their division felt like every offseason.

I agree. I do not see the similarities between the 18 Giants and the 18 Yankees.

The 18 Giants look more like the 04 Giants or the 12 Phillies. The org is now paying the piper for the 09-14 run. We knew this would come when we were in “The Golden Age”. Now we just have to deal. Let’s just hope the PsTB can recognize this as well and navigate the rebuild appropriately.

 

[calsnowskier]

I wasn’t tempted to create a thread titled “Giants send Hunter to Rangers”, but I am not in the mood for click bait today...

The Giants sent Hunter Cole to the Rangers to complete the Sam Dyson trade.

 

[LHG]

I wasn’t tempted to create a thread titled “Giants send Hunter to Rangers”, but I am not in the mood for click bait today...

The Giants sent Hunter Cole to the Rangers to complete the Sam Dyson trade.

Good for him. He seemed to regress at AA and lost his standing as one of the better prospects. Hope he does well in the Ranger system.

 

[SFGRTB]

I wasn’t tempted to create a thread titled “Giants send Hunter to Rangers”, but I am not in the mood for click bait today...

The Giants sent Hunter Cole to the Rangers to complete the Sam Dyson trade.

Not a bad spot for him to land. The Rangers aren't very deep in the OF as far as prospects go. They have a stud CFer, but he's at least a year off. At the ML level they have Choo who is always hurt. Mazara and DeShields are pretty set though.

I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a shot at the big this year. Plus, he's in a great hitting environment and is a little closer to home.

 

[LHG]

I'm not so sure, despite how frequently the Giants are attached to the Stanton trades in rumors, that the Giants will land him. There are a couple factors as to why I think that.

First, either Sabean or Evans (don't remember which) said that they want to know early if the trade will happen as they need to know how they are going to assemble the rest of the roster. But the Marlins' ownership seems to want prospects in return for Stanton, to keep from further alienating what remaining fan base they have. The Giants aren't the best organization to work with in order to land a bunch of highly thought of prospects but Jeter isn't very interested in talking with Stanton. This makes no sense considering that Stanton holds the reigns to who he gets traded to so if a team comes along with an attractive package of prospects, but Stanton won't waiver the no trade clause for that team, the Marlins are stuck. The situation seems to suggest its going to be another month or two before a trade can be completed.

Second, the Giants' desire to stay within the luxury tax threshold would suggest that Stanton won't be coming over, unless half his current salary is covered by the Marlins. As mentioned above, that would require a good package of prospects that the Giants may not be able to offer. In order for the Marlins to come down enough on asking price, and cover half of Stanton's salary, they'd need to exhaust a lot of other possibilities. This second reason would, in my opinion, suggest that JD Martinez won't be a real possibility either. That guy's asking price is outrageous, but even when it drops to more realistic, it would be well over the threshold.

 

[SFGRTB]

So the talk right now (I'm not talking about KNBR talk, but reputable sources) is that if the Giants get Stanton, Cueto is gone.

That makes me think, what would they get for Cueto and why can't they do that anyway? Do they have to be mutually exclusive?

 

[LHG]

So the talk right now (I'm not talking about KNBR talk, but reputable sources) is that if the Giants get Stanton, Cueto is gone.

That makes me think, what would they get for Cueto and why can't they do that anyway? Do they have to be mutually exclusive?

That is a good question. And who do they get to replace Cueto? Do they go within the org (Blach? Beede? Gregorio?) or do they sign a free agent? How much would that free agent cost and would it really be an upgrade for their pitching and defense first mantra? If they pick up someone in a trade, who gets traded? So many moving parts here.

 

[SFGRTB]

That is a good question. And who do they get to replace Cueto? Do they go within the org (Blach? Beede? Gregorio?) or do they sign a free agent? How much would that free agent cost and would it really be an upgrade for their pitching and defense first mantra? If they pick up someone in a trade, who gets traded? So many moving parts here.

My thinking....

A. I think Tyler Chatwood is going to be a pretty good low-key signing for someone out there. Would be a solid fit with the Giants IMO. Is he an upgrade over Cueto? Not likely (assuming Cueto puts up reasonably better number than last year, which I think is likely). But I think Chatwood puts up a solid 3.50 ERA, 180 innings next year if it's away from Coors.

B. So Cueto's contract is basically 4/$90M. Looking at the top pitchers on the market, Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb.... how will Cueto's contract look compared to those 4? I think it will be less than the first two, and probably more money than the last two, but similar years. I wonder if that gives the Giants some leverage in trade talks for teams looking for a top arm but missing out on the free agents. The Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Cardinals, Rangers, Mariners, Orioles and probably more are all looking to add a top flight rotation piece and obviously not all are getting one.

While I don't think it's surprising Cueto opted-in to his contract, it does look like 'somewhat' of a bargain compared to what he might get on the open market.

 

[LHG]

My thinking....

A. I think Tyler Chatwood is going to be a pretty good low-key signing for someone out there. Would be a solid fit with the Giants IMO. Is he an upgrade over Cueto? Not likely (assuming Cueto puts up reasonably better number than last year, which I think is likely). But I think Chatwood puts up a solid 3.50 ERA, 180 innings next year if it's away from Coors.

B. So Cueto's contract is basically 4/$90M. Looking at the top pitchers on the market, Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb.... how will Cueto's contract look compared to those 4? I think it will be less than the first two, and probably more money than the last two, but similar years. I wonder if that gives the Giants some leverage in trade talks for teams looking for a top arm but missing out on the free agents. The Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Cardinals, Rangers, Mariners, Orioles and probably more are all looking to add a top flight rotation piece and obviously not all are getting one.

While I don't think it's surprising Cueto opted-in to his contract, it does look like 'somewhat' of a bargain compared to what he might get on the open market.

Doesn't Cueto have a partial or full no trade clause in his contract?

 

[calsnowskier]

Doesn't Cueto have a partial or full no trade clause in his contract?

Nope. He can be traded on the slightest Giants whim.

 

[LHG]

Nope. He can be traded on the slightest Giants whim.

Wow, that certainly makes his trade a lot easier to execute. But it still seems weird to me that the FO would want Stanton so badly that they'd trade off arguably the 2nd best pitcher on staff and replace him with a lesser pitcher when the FO said that they want to be competitive in 2018 and want to improve pitching.

 

[msgkings322]

I just saw that rumor too and came flying over here to post about it. Looks like I got beat out.

I am literally shaking my head as I write this. Ridiculous. The FO's approach this past year is frightening. If the rumor is true, apparently its not enough for them to hamstring the MLB team's payroll for years to come, they also need to get rid of any legitimate prospects in a fairly barren farm system so that the only players on 2021's team are a bunch of retreads and Stanton.

I just don't see why you guys care so much about 2021. Sometimes you gotta make a push. If all you do is draft and develop a guy or three you win 85 games a year, max. If we can get Posey and Bum one more ring I'm perfectly happy even if we suck after. We'll get good again.

 

[calsnowskier]

I just don't see why you guys care so much about 2021. Sometimes you gotta make a push. If all you do is draft and develop a guy or three you win 85 games a year, max. If we can get Posey and Bum one more ring I'm perfectly happy even if we suck after. We'll get good again.

Straw man argument.

We dont just draft and develop. This team has been pretty heavy in trades over the last 8 years or so.

And OF COURSE I would be happy with another ring. I just don’t think this team is capable of getting that. The 04-08 Giants were painful. Getting Stanton would make 19-24 even harder to watch.

 

[msgkings322]

Straw man argument.

We dont just draft and develop. This team has been pretty heavy in trades over the last 8 years or so.

And OF COURSE I would be happy with another ring. I just don’t think this team is capable of getting that. The 04-08 Giants were painful. Getting Stanton would make 19-24 even harder to watch.

I don't think it's a lock that getting Stanton means we will suck as soon as 2019. Maybe a couple years later when his contract starts being Pujols like. But the FO would be showing a commitment to winning another ring in the next 3 years with that move and I'm ok with it.

It's trendy to want to be the Astros and suck for a few years to win a ring later. We aren't ready for that IMO

 

[LHG]

I don't think it's a lock that getting Stanton means we will suck as soon as 2019. Maybe a couple years later when his contract starts being Pujols like. But the FO would be showing a commitment to winning another ring in the next 3 years with that move and I'm ok with it.

It's trendy to want to be the Astros and suck for a few years to win a ring later. We aren't ready for that IMO

The FO and/or ownership, through the end of the season to now, has said that they need to stay under the luxury tax threshold, focus on pitching and defense and put more power in the lineup. Stanton helps in one area. In order to remain under the threshold pitching is going to have to give and maybe defense too. If the FO doesn't care about the threshold, then I could possibly see this team become a contender next year but its going to cost.

 

[SFGRTB]

Not sure if y'all heard about the shit storm that flew over Atlanta today but it has some league-wide implications.

Former Braves GM Coppolella Permanently Banned By MLB | BaseballAmerica.com

MLB Removing Prospects From Braves | BaseballAmerica.com

I don't expect the Giants to get involved in any of these prospects, but it's worth noting that they are eligible to sign them using their next cycles' bonus pool, when the Giants' temporary limit is lifted. So theoretically they could go out and sign Kevin Maitain and would instantly become their number 2-3 prospect, and with Ramos around the same age it would make for an interesting group to follow.

 

[calsnowskier]

Not sure if y'all heard about the shit storm that flew over Atlanta today but it has some league-wide implications.

Former Braves GM Coppolella Permanently Banned By MLB | BaseballAmerica.com

MLB Removing Prospects From Braves | BaseballAmerica.com

I don't expect the Giants to get involved in any of these prospects, but it's worth noting that they are eligible to sign them using their next cycles' bonus pool, when the Giants' temporary limit is lifted. So theoretically they could go out and sign Kevin Maitain and would instantly become their number 2-3 prospect, and with Ramos around the same age it would make for an interesting group to follow.

Absolute windfall for the kids. They get to keep their signing bonuses, I think.

 

[SFGRTB]

Absolute windfall for the kids. They get to keep their signing bonuses, I think.

Yes. They can even go back to the Braves if they want, but they'll make no money there.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yes. They can even go back to the Braves if they want, but they'll make no money there.

I think I read somewhere that the Braves are actually restricted from signing them.

I will see if I can find that somewhere...

Edit:

Can’t find where they can’t re-sign the players, but the6 can only sign players to 10k each, so yeah... they ain’t going back.