2016 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

I just realized all the money we have coming off in 2016. Peavy, Pagan, Casilla, Romo, Lopez, Blanco at $48.65M. And Cain's $24M is off in 2017. Getting ahead of myself here, but before I read the rest of the article, that just popped out to me. Might soften a blow of handing out 1 huge deal to a pitcher.

You mean Madison Bumgarner?

As an aside, as much as it pains me to say it, the Cain deal is starting to look worse than the Zito deal.

Perhaps there is a lesson there? As in, don't pay premium long-term $$$$ for a veteran FA pitcher? Or even re-signing your own?

Just seems there are a lot more busts that happen with veteran pitchers getting mega-deals, but I'm willing to defer to any real research that has been done.

 

[calsnowskier]

You mean Madison Bumgarner?

As an aside, as much as it pains me to say it, the Cain deal is starting to look worse than the Zito deal.

Perhaps there is a lesson there? As in, don't pay premium long-term $$$$ for a veteran FA pitcher? Or even re-signing your own?

Just seems there are a lot more busts that happen with veteran pitchers getting mega-deals, but I'm willing to defer to any real research that has been done.

I think you have to eat it if you ever want to win. Working a budget is important as a general rule, but you have to pony up from time to time.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I just realized all the money we have coming off in 2016. Peavy, Pagan, Casilla, Romo, Lopez, Blanco at $48.65M. And Cain's $24M is off in 2017. Getting ahead of myself here, but before I read the rest of the article, that just popped out to me. Might soften a blow of handing out 1 huge deal to a pitcher.

Just to be crystal clear, the money is coming off the books AFTER the seasons you mentioned.

Also, there is a club option on Cain for 2018 that can become guaranteed if he has 200 IP in '17 or 400 IP in '16+'17. Not that far-feteched that it will vest.

Also, all that money 'coming off the books' means that replacements will have to be found. I'm not too worried for the pen or for ONE starting pitcher (we should have that covered internally) except for a closer, which we'll need for the 2017 season. The team will need to find two starting OFs (CF & LF) and the entire bench (with the possible exception of Tomlinson) for the 2017 season, not to mention possibly another starting pitcher, a starting 1B and SS for the 2018 season. $50M is not a lot of money. The Giants only have 10 or so guys already signed (or 'captive' youngsters) for the 2018 season. They'll need to find about 15 other guys.

 

[tzill]

It is stuff like this that leaves me scratching my head:
"While Blanco has spent a good bit of time in center over his career, defensive metrics have always preferred him in the corner — especially the last two seasons. So, there’s an argument to be made that the Giants ought to consider adding a center field-capable player, whether as an upgrade or a platoon mate/back-up plan."
"several shorter-term candidates with track records in center (such as Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Gerardo Parra, and Austin Jackson)."

To compare, in 2015, offensive and defensive WAR (with at-bats in parenthesis):
Blanco (327) 1.7 -0.9
Fowler (596) 3.5 -1.0
Rasmus (432) 2.1 -0.1
Parra (547) 2.0 -1.5
Jackson (491) 1.7 0.1

According to these, only Rasmus and Jackson are better defensively than Blanco. Offensively, only Fowler seemed to post a significantly better WAR than Blanco. Assuming that Blanco's production was consistent and got as many at-bats at the next lowest number (Jackson), his offensive WAR would be closer to 2.6. If close to Fowler's at-bats, it could be closer to 3.1.

Looking further back on defensive WAR (2013-2015), here's where they land:
Blanco 0.8, -0.6, -0.9
Fowler -0.2, -1.8, -1.0
Rasmus 1.5, -0.5, -0.1
Parra 4.0, -0.8, -1.5
Jackson 0.7, 0.5, 0.1

Interesting that all five outfielders seem to be slipping defensively the past three years, as least according to defensive WAR. Gerardo Parra is the only one that posted any kind of good defensive season among the five in the last three years, which makes his slip even more pronounced. I know that this is a very subjective tool (isn't any kind of defensive metric?) but we've got to measure them somehow defensively.

Finally, looking at the defensive WAR, here's the change from 2013 to 2015:
Blanco -1.7
Fowler -0.8
Rasmus -1.6
Parra -5.5
Jackson -0.6

Simply put, why sign any of those short term center field options (or even suggest signing them in the first place) when they would essentially replace a player with similar production, offensively and defensively?

First, you can't make an assumption like the bolded. Blanco has never been a full time player and we can't project his numbers as if he were. Second, I don't think we'll be signing a FA OF....we've got a full stable and guys ready to break in.

 

[tzill]

This is exactly why I completely ignore defensive metrics.

Blanco is a negative defensive WAR player? That just does not pass the sniff-test for me. The stat says (if I understand it correctly) that if he had been replaced with a "replacement level player" (whatever the eff that is), we would have better D?

Blanco may not be gold-glove quality, but he is solid out there. He has a good enough glove and has a wide range. His routes appear to be good enough and his arm, at worst, is slightly below average.

How does that equate to a negative dWAR?

While no metric is perfect, and all defensive stats are somewhat subjective, dWAR can be useful. Just because you don't understand it, or may disagree via a "sniff test" doesn't mean it's not useful. That aside, more than what you cite goes into the metric. His range is measured against his peers, so we can get a feel for "break" and "route." Per that metric, Blanco is about league average. I think his dWAR suffers from lack of assists -- mostly due to his arm.

Again, not a perfect stat -- no stat is. But to say that Blanco is absolutely better defensively than a guy you bring up from AAA as a replacement player doesn't pass the "sniff test" for me.

 

[tzill]

I think you have to eat it if you ever want to win. Working a budget is important as a general rule, but you have to pony up from time to time.

The 2010, 2012, 2014 Giants and the 2015 Mets say "Hello!!"

 

[calsnowskier]

The 2010, 2012, 2014 Giants and the 2015 Mets say "Hello!!"

Zito, Cain, Timmeh and Rowand say "hi" back.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I think you have to eat it if you ever want to win. Working a budget is important as a general rule, but you have to pony up from time to time.

Yes, you have to take risks to get the return. Risk can take the form of shelling out a big contract for a marquee pitcher. It can also mean putting your faith in a less-than-tested prospect. Or it can take the form of signing a potential clubhouse cancer in hopes that he can toe the line to be on a contender.

Which brings me to Jonathan Papelbon. The guy can still pitch. We need a more formidable closer. Washington wants to dump him in the worst way, so he can probably be had for a song, and I'll bet they'll pay half his salary.

If we could get Papelbon for a mid-level prospect and only have to pay him $5-$6 million (Senators pay the rest), are we interested? I don't know, but I think it's worth some discussion.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/giants-interested-zack-greinke.html

• The Nationals will try to trade both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon this winter, though the latter, of course won’t have much of a market due to his personality issues. Storen’s an expensive but talented option, and Heyman opines that he “absolutely has to go.” While I wouldn’t go that far, I’ll admit that it does seem like a change of scenery would be best for all parties involved. I’d imagine a number of teams — the Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers, to name a few — would have interest in Storen. Papelbon’s $11MM salary strikes me as nearly impossible to move unless the Nats eat the majority of the deal or take on an even more undesirable contract.

 

[tzill]

Zito, Cain, Timmeh and Rowand say "hi" back.

I don't follow your logic. Unless you are saying that giving $126 to Zito was essential to the Giants winning, or Timmy's bloated contract was essential to 2014, etc.

You seem to prove my point. Which is: you don't have to sign pitchers to big contracts to win.

 

[tzill]

Yes, you have to take risks to get the return. Risk can take the form of shelling out a big contract for a marquee pitcher. It can also mean putting your faith in a less-than-tested prospect. Or it can take the form of signing a potential clubhouse cancer in hopes that he can toe the line to be on a contender.

Which brings me to Jonathan Papelbon. The guy can still pitch. We need a more formidable closer. Washington wants to dump him in the worst way, so he can probably be had for a song, and I'll bet they'll pay half his salary.

If we could get Papelbon for a mid-level prospect and only have to pay him $5-$6 million (Senators pay the rest), are we interested? I don't know, but I think it's worth some discussion.

Heyman's Latest: Mattingly, Braves, Red Sox, White Sox, Ozuna, Giants, Storen

• The Nationals will try to trade both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon this winter, though the latter, of course won’t have much of a market due to his personality issues. Storen’s an expensive but talented option, and Heyman opines that he “absolutely has to go.” While I wouldn’t go that far, I’ll admit that it does seem like a change of scenery would be best for all parties involved. I’d imagine a number of teams — the Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers, to name a few — would have interest in Storen. Papelbon’s $11MM salary strikes me as nearly impossible to move unless the Nats eat the majority of the deal or take on an even more undesirable contract.

Storen is an interesting possibility, but I can't see a Buster/Pence/Romo/Cain clubhouse tolerating Pap

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't follow your logic. Unless you are saying that giving $126 to Zito was essential to the Giants winning, or Timmy's bloated contract was essential to 2014, etc.

You seem to prove my point. Which is: you don't have to sign pitchers to big contracts to win.

Zito WAS vital to 2012. Timmeh and Cain were "thank you" deals, and Cain was vital to '12.

How about Posey? He is a deal now as he is a HOF-caliber catcher, but what about in 2 years when he is a light-hitting 1B?

How about in 2 years when Bumgarner becomes the majority owner of the team?

The Giants have one of the big-boy payrolls in the game. For us to sit here and claim that it doesn't help is quite hypocritical.

 

[calsnowskier]

Storen is an interesting possibility, but I can't see a Buster/Pence/Romo/Cain clubhouse tolerating Pap

While I agree 100% with you, wouldn't you think that if any clubhouse can keep him in check, it is this one?

Boch, Pence and Bum would eat him for lunch if ever tried anything like he did in Washington here.

But I agree that the Giants don't need to risk it with him.

 

[Mays-Fan]

While I agree 100% with you, wouldn't you think that if any clubhouse can keep him in check, it is this one?

Boch, Pence and Bum would eat him for lunch if ever tried anything like he did in Washington here.

But I agree that the Giants don't need to risk it with him.

If Pap got disruptive, yeah our leaders would eat him for lunch, but the damage would be done. Can't put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Plus, I didn't realize that Pap turns 35 next year. Maybe a mid-year acquisition if we are in need.

I'd rather roll the dice that one or more of Osich/Strickland/Kontos/Black et al can make that next step to elite level. Spend the money on Leake and a very good OF. IMHO.

 

[calsnowskier]

If Pap got disruptive, yeah our leaders would eat him for lunch, but the damage would be done. Can't put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Plus, I didn't realize that Pap turns 35 next year. Maybe a mid-year acquisition if we are in need.

I'd rather roll the dice that one or more of Osich/Strickland/Kontos/Black et al can make that next step to elite level. Spend the money on Leake and a very good OF. IMHO.

I still would not be a huge fan of getting him mid season. Too much dynamite.

Besides, I don't think Boch is a huge fan of the traditional closer anyway. Are there many who would argue that KCYa was the best pitcher in the pen over the last 3 seasons? I think he just has the position of 9th inning. Kontos, Lopez, Strickland, even Romo, I would argue, have better and been responsible for more critical situations.

The way a bully SHOULD be run, BTW.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Zito WAS vital to 2012. Timmeh and Cain were "thank you" deals, and Cain was vital to '12.

How about Posey? He is a deal now as he is a HOF-caliber catcher, but what about in 2 years when he is a light-hitting 1B?

How about in 2 years when Bumgarner becomes the majority owner of the team?

The Giants have one of the big-boy payrolls in the game. For us to sit here and claim that it doesn't help is quite hypocritical.

I'll skip the whole Zito crap, 'cuz I've already made myself clear on that subject.

Concerning MadBum, WTF are you smoking? The Giants are 'on the hook' for two ridiculously cheap years in '16 and '17, and have two ridiculously cheap club options for '18 and '19. He ain't owning anything before 2020. Let the munchies pass, then come back and post.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I still would not be a huge fan of getting him mid season. Too much dynamite.

Besides, I don't think Boch is a huge fan of the traditional closer anyway. Are there many who would argue that KCYa was the best pitcher in the pen over the last 3 seasons? I think he just has the position of 9th inning. Kontos, Lopez, Strickland, even Romo, I would argue, have better and been responsible for more critical situations.

The way a bully SHOULD be run, BTW.

This guy says "Hi!".



And we DID have, IMHO, designated closers in the WSC years. Wilson in 2010, Romo from Casilla in 2012, and Bumgarner (okay, Casilla from Romo) in 2014. There was some committee work, and shifting of roles, but Bochy always designated the closer. To agree with you in part, Bochy has proved you can win a WSC without a top-shelf power closer. But I have to believe if you ask him, he would rather have one guy he goes to in the ninth.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not saying that Bochy did not give the title of "Closer" to someone at all times. I just believe that that person was not necessarily the best pitcher we had.

Wheezy was probably our best. Granted. But Romo? I think Affeldt probably held the "best" tag in those years. This past year was probably Kontos. His inherited runner streak was godly. KCYa is a firm member of the "Core Four. He is/was a stud. But our best guy in the pen?

 

[MarcoPolo]

I am not saying that Bochy did not give the title of "Closer" to someone at all times. I just believe that that person was not necessarily the best pitcher we had.

Wheezy was probably our best. Granted. But Romo? I think Affeldt probably held the "best" tag in those years. This past year was probably Kontos. His inherited runner streak was godly. KCYa is a firm member of the "Core Four. He is/was a stud. But our best guy in the pen?

I think you are forgetting 2012. Romo in 2012 post-season :

2012 NLDS, ERA 2.08, 3G, 1 ER, WHIP 0.692
2012 NLCS, ERA 0.00, 4G, WHIP 0.600
2012 WS, ERA 0.00, 3G, WHIP 0.000

Hell, 2012 regular season : 69G, ERA 1.79, WHIP 0.849, K/9 10.2

 

[tzill]

Zito WAS vital to 2012. Timmeh and Cain were "thank you" deals, and Cain was vital to '12.

How about Posey? He is a deal now as he is a HOF-caliber catcher, but what about in 2 years when he is a light-hitting 1B?

How about in 2 years when Bumgarner becomes the majority owner of the team?

The Giants have one of the big-boy payrolls in the game. For us to sit here and claim that it doesn't help is quite hypocritical.

In 2012, Zito had an ERA+ of 86 (below average). He gave us 0.2 WAR (barely above replacement level). He gave us about $1M in value and he made $19M. I can't see how that was "vital."
Cain in 2012 made $15M and he earned his money that year by giving us 126 ERA+ and 3.9 WAR. I could see the "vital" argument here, but he was NEVER a FA.
Posey was not a FA pitcher, so he is irrelevant to the discussion
Bumgarner isn't a FA, your argument might have weight if he makes it to free agency, but that's speculative.
Nobody is arguing the Giants aren't a big payroll team. The discussion is about FA pitchers and whether it makes sense to go big in that arena.

I'm dubious.

 

[SFGRTB]

In 2012, Zito had an ERA+ of 86 (below average). He gave us 0.2 WAR (barely above replacement level). He gave us about $1M in value and he made $19M. I can't see how that was "vital."
Cain in 2012 made $15M and he earned his money that year by giving us 126 ERA+ and 3.9 WAR. I could see the "vital" argument here, but he was NEVER a FA.
Posey was not a FA pitcher, so he is irrelevant to the discussion
Bumgarner isn't a FA, your argument might have weight if he makes it to free agency, but that's speculative.
Nobody is arguing the Giants aren't a big payroll team. The discussion is about FA pitchers and whether it makes sense to go big in that arena.

I'm dubious.

I'm only going to talk about Zito here. In 2012, we don't win the World Series without Zito. He was 5-0 in 6 September/October regular season starts with a 3.03 ERA. Then went 2-0 in 3 post season starts, giving up 3 runs in 16 innings. Barry WAS vital in 2012. Maybe not in the context that you're looking at. But Barry saved our 2012 season.

Carry on.