2016 Rosterbation

[LHG]

I'm only going to talk about Zito here. In 2012, we don't win the World Series without Zito. He was 5-0 in 6 September/October regular season starts with a 3.03 ERA. Then went 2-0 in 3 post season starts, giving up 3 runs in 16 innings. Barry WAS vital in 2012. Maybe not in the context that you're looking at. But Barry saved our 2012 season.

Carry on.

I don't understand using Zito as the argument that an overpriced pitcher is necessary for a World Series run. Just as much as he was key in 2012, he had to be sidelined in 2010 to win it all. The signing was a sure fired free agent bust from the beginning. To use 2 postseason starts (his first start, against Cincinnati, was horrible, Interestingly, Mike Leake pitched opposite him in that game and was considerably worse), in my mind, to justify it is a stretch. Quite simply, he was a crapshoot in the postseason. He just happened to get really hot at the exact time it was needed - a do or die game 5 of the NLCS. The word "crapshoot" should never be used to describe the highest priced pitcher starting any game in the postseason. A "crapshoot" should be starting Chris Heston or Yusimiero Petit in the playoffs. Sorry, but I don't think two good starts in a postseason make a extremely high priced, long term contract valid. The results were ace quality, the uncertainty before them were 5th starter quality.

 

[SFGRTB]

I don't understand using Zito as the argument that an overpriced pitcher is necessary for a World Series run. Just as much as he was key in 2012, he had to be sidelined in 2010 to win it all. The signing was a sure fired free agent bust from the beginning. To use 2 postseason starts (his first start, against Cincinnati, was horrible, Interestingly, Mike Leake pitched opposite him in that game and was considerably worse), in my mind, to justify it is a stretch. Quite simply, he was a crapshoot in the postseason. He just happened to get really hot at the exact time it was needed - a do or die game 5 of the NLCS. The word "crapshoot" should never be used to describe the highest priced pitcher starting any game in the postseason. A "crapshoot" should be starting Chris Heston or Yusimiero Petit in the playoffs. Sorry, but I don't think two good starts in a postseason make a extremely high priced, long term contract valid. The results were ace quality, the uncertainty before them were 5th starter quality.

I was simply defending Zito's 2012 performance as being vital to the team. I didn't make that very clear. I wasn't planning on jumping into the salary discussion.

 

[MarcoPolo]

1 or two good post-season starts does NOT a good $137M contract make.

 

[tzill]

I'm only going to talk about Zito here. In 2012, we don't win the World Series without Zito. He was 5-0 in 6 September/October regular season starts with a 3.03 ERA. Then went 2-0 in 3 post season starts, giving up 3 runs in 16 innings. Barry WAS vital in 2012. Maybe not in the context that you're looking at. But Barry saved our 2012 season.

Carry on.

That's the familiar narrative. However, if we had a legit #3 pitcher (110 ERA+. 2.5 WAR) maybe we don't NEED him to do what he did in Sep/Oct. He's a legend and I'm glad he did what he did. But saying "we don't win the WS without" him is specious logic. Unless you're agruing butterfly effect, and in that case we need to trade for Jose Guillen immediately.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I prefer the more correct "butterfly fart".

 

[filosofy29]

I prefer the more correct "butterfly fart".

Nah.

 

[SFGRTB]

1 or two good post-season starts does NOT a good $137M contract make.

That's the familiar narrative. However, if we had a legit #3 pitcher (110 ERA+. 2.5 WAR) maybe we don't NEED him to do what he did in Sep/Oct. He's a legend and I'm glad he did what he did. But saying "we don't win the WS without" him is specious logic. Unless you're agruing butterfly effect, and in that case we need to trade for Jose Guillen immediately.

Again, not speaking about Zito's contract, just (poorly) defending his importance to 2012. Nothing more. I didn't care to jump into another discussion about his contract, so I shouldn't have said anything in the first place. Carry on.

 

[LHG]

Again, not speaking about Zito's contract, just (poorly) defending his importance to 2012. Nothing more. I didn't care to jump into another discussion about his contract, so I shouldn't have said anything in the first place. Carry on.

I wouldn't say that. You could have started another thread about important postseason contributors or clearly stated (and maybe you did this) that your post had nothing to do with contract discussions. Zito's start in the NLCS and the WS in 2012 were both huge, especially the NLCS start.

 

[Mays-Fan]

In pursuit of a fresh topic:

Heyman's Latest: Mattingly, Braves, Red Sox, White Sox, Ozuna, Giants, Storen

• The Cardinals will try to re-sign Jason Heyward, but while they could go “a bit beyond” Matt Holliday’s franchise-record $120MM guarantee, Heyward’s camp will insist on topping Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153MM sum and inching as close to $200MM as they can get.

While I would like to see Heyward in our RF slot because I would like to see another big bat in the lineup (not to mention his worth in the field), that is just WAY too high a price. Not sure what is to be inferred here, but it sounds like 8/160 or 7/175 or 8/200.

He only had a .708 OPS with RISP last year, and has driven in 156 runs total in the last three years. That's 52 RBI/yr. And he wants a contract between $153mm and $200mm?!?

That is insane.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Screw Heyward - pitching wins championships.

 

[Stokes1931]

Screw Heyward - pitching wins championships.

Amen.

At at that amount of money.

Amen and amen!

 

[LHG]

In pursuit of a fresh topic:

Heyman's Latest: Mattingly, Braves, Red Sox, White Sox, Ozuna, Giants, Storen

• The Cardinals will try to re-sign Jason Heyward, but while they could go “a bit beyond” Matt Holliday’s franchise-record $120MM guarantee, Heyward’s camp will insist on topping Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153MM sum and inching as close to $200MM as they can get.

While I would like to see Heyward in our RF slot because I would like to see another big bat in the lineup (not to mention his worth in the field), that is just WAY too high a price. Not sure what is to be inferred here, but it sounds like 8/160 or 7/175 or 8/200.

He only had a .708 OPS with RISP last year, and has driven in 156 runs total in the last three years. That's 52 RBI/yr. And he wants a contract between $153mm and $200mm?!?

That is insane.

I knew he would get a lot of money because of his reputation as a high end prospect, his age, his defense and his still untapped potential. His offense isn't that great (2015 represents his third best year, in terms of OPS - his first being his rookie season, 2010 and his second being 2012), the Giants are better off without him. Consider him the Pablo Sandoval non-signing of the 2015-2016 offseason.

 

[LHG]

For comparison's sake, compare Heyward's total WAR with Posey (per Baseball Reference). Since 2010, Posey's WAR is 28.9. Heyward is 31.1. According to this metric, Heyward averages 5.2 WAR per year, Posey 4.8. However, while Heyward missed a month in 2011 and two months in 2013, Posey got a month and half late start in 2010 and missed 4 months in 2011. It is reasonable to assume that Posey's WAR would be nearly identical to Heyward without that injury in 2011 and getting the opportunity to start from the beginning of 2010. Don't get me wrong, Heyward is a good player, but his numbers don't justify, in my mind, he getting $7 million more a season than Posey.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Screw Heyward - pitching wins championships.

True, but so does defense. And Heyward brings that like no other in RF.

But his asking price is just too high. God bless him if he gets it.

I will say, IMHO, I would be more inclined to give a non-pitcher a long-term contract as opposed to a pitcher. I don't have any objective data, but it just seems that a non-pitcher has a better chance of recovering from an injury than does a pitcher.

 

[tzill]

In pursuit of a fresh topic:

Heyman's Latest: Mattingly, Braves, Red Sox, White Sox, Ozuna, Giants, Storen

• The Cardinals will try to re-sign Jason Heyward, but while they could go “a bit beyond” Matt Holliday’s franchise-record $120MM guarantee, Heyward’s camp will insist on topping Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153MM sum and inching as close to $200MM as they can get.

While I would like to see Heyward in our RF slot because I would like to see another big bat in the lineup (not to mention his worth in the field), that is just WAY too high a price. Not sure what is to be inferred here, but it sounds like 8/160 or 7/175 or 8/200.

He only had a .708 OPS with RISP last year, and has driven in 156 runs total in the last three years. That's 52 RBI/yr. And he wants a contract between $153mm and $200mm?!?

That is insane.

He's put up two 6+ WAR seasons in a row, and he's only 25. The guy will get better, and he's already amazing. I'd give him 6/150 and lock down CF for the next half decade. I'd even go 7/175. However, we need SP, not an OF.

 

[tzill]

For comparison's sake, compare Heyward's total WAR with Posey (per Baseball Reference). Since 2010, Posey's WAR is 28.9. Heyward is 31.1. According to this metric, Heyward averages 5.2 WAR per year, Posey 4.8. However, while Heyward missed a month in 2011 and two months in 2013, Posey got a month and half late start in 2010 and missed 4 months in 2011. It is reasonable to assume that Posey's WAR would be nearly identical to Heyward without that injury in 2011 and getting the opportunity to start from the beginning of 2010. Don't get me wrong, Heyward is a good player, but his numbers don't justify, in my mind, he getting $7 million more a season than Posey.

It all depends upon when you sign the contract. He's worth $25MM a year. If Buster were signing a contract today, he'd be worth that much too.

 

[Mays-Fan]

He's put up two 6+ WAR seasons in a row, and he's only 25. The guy will get better, and he's already amazing. I'd give him 6/150 and lock down CF for the next half decade. I'd even go 7/175. However, we need SP, not an OF.

I don't disagree with you. I'm a little leery that Heyward has not developed as a star hitter yet. But 6 WAR is 6 WAR.

I'm also with Marco here, pitching is what the Giants do. I'm biased against paying above market price for a #2 pitcher. I'm good with signing Leake at 5/80. And we should see how Timmy's surgery works out.

What is worth looking at, IMHO, is someone better that DeAza for the OF. Not Heyward better, but maybe someone like Colby Rasmus. Solid defender in CF, good pop with the bat. Drawback is that he's a LHH. But we could get him for $10mm, maybe a little less. I'd rather have him than De Aza.

 

[SFGRTB]

Congrats to the Royals, but it's time to fire up the hot stove and kick some tires!

 

[SFGRTB]

I don't disagree with you. I'm a little leery that Heyward has not developed as a star hitter yet. But 6 WAR is 6 WAR.

I'm also with Marco here, pitching is what the Giants do. I'm biased against paying above market price for a #2 pitcher. I'm good with signing Leake at 5/80. And we should see how Timmy's surgery works out.

What is worth looking at, IMHO, is someone better that DeAza for the OF. Not Heyward better, but maybe someone like Colby Rasmus. Solid defender in CF, good pop with the bat. Drawback is that he's a LHH. But we could get him for $10mm, maybe a little less. I'd rather have him than De Aza.

I agree with you in that I'm much more comfortable giving the big money to an everyday player compared to an every 5th day guy, but this team is well constructed offensively. I just don't see the need for another big outfielder if they bring Aoki back, which seems to be the case if he's healthy. Was there even a spot for De Aza? We look pretty set if the Giants are sold on Parker, I think thats where his spot is going. Plus, just looking at the free agent market for outfielders, no one really jumps out as an upgrade if they decided to go that route. There are quite a few pitchers out there, however.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I agree with you in that I'm much more comfortable giving the big money to an everyday player compared to an every 5th day guy, but this team is well constructed offensively. I just don't see the need for another big outfielder if they bring Aoki back, which seems to be the case if he's healthy. Was there even a spot for De Aza? We look pretty set if the Giants are sold on Parker, I think thats where his spot is going. Plus, just looking at the free agent market for outfielders, no one really jumps out as an upgrade if they decided to go that route. There are quite a few pitchers out there, however.

My concern is age/injuries. Aoki will be 34 next year. Pagan is a roll of the dice health-wise. Blanco and Pence aren't getting any younger either. Parker was amazing in a SSS, but most of that was in less meaningful games. He could easily be a Brandon Hicks of the OF, too.

I think there is room and need for a proven, quality OF, preferably one that can play CF. I can't speak for the clubhouse aspect, but Rasmus looks like a decent choice. He can play all OF positions, as he did last year with the Astros. I could see giving him a 1/9 or a 2/16:

Colby Rasmus Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

And I am leery of spending big $$$ to pay an above-market price for a long-term contract on a pitcher. The odds on longevity there are not good. Leake is as far as I would go.