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averagejoe
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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Looking at the ADP and consensus rankings, many players are ranked/drafted as you may expect. Of course there are some minimal variations based on personal preference.
That said, there are quite a number of players that seem to be trending upwards (over-valued) and others are trending down (under-valued). Here's my view on a few:
OVER VALUED
(numbers are based on overall value)
AP (ADP=3, consensus=3) - He may hold out. Seems to be more of risk at this point for such a high selection.
Odell Beckham (ADP=11, consensus=11) - Yeah, he was phenomenal in 7 games last year. But how often do we see players with a limited body of work struggle the following year as teams plan better at defending them.
Mike Evans (ADP=27, consensus=25) - Had a real good year in 2014. But now he has a rookie QB and OC that favors running, and the TE.
Jimmy Graham (ADP=29, consensus=32) - goes from a Saints team that ranked 3rd passing to a Hawks team that ranked 27th. A difference of 1300 yards. I'm skeptical. Plus teams figured out how to defend him.
Todd Gurley (ADP=51, consensus=52) - ACL recovery issues pending. And we're talking redraft leagues for a guy who may end up on the PUP and miss 6 games which is nearly half a fantasy season.
Brandon Marshall (ADP=53, consensus=50) - Geno Smith. Need I say more.
Darren McFadden (ADP=52, consensus=89) - The consensus ranking is more realistic. Especially with the rumor that favors Randle as the starter.
TJ Yeldon (ADP=61, consensus=54) - Yes, he lands in a favorable position to start. But it is a sputtering Jacksonville offense. And talent doesn't necessarily equal success.
Julius Thomas (ADP=73, consensus=87) - No way does he hit double-digit TD in Jacksonville like he did in Denver.
UNDER VALUED
TY Hilton (ADP=25, consensus=28) - High-powered offense with a steady QB. Those are better conditions than a few other WR being drafted ahead of him.
Frank Gore (ADP=33, consensus=37) - So he's old. He continually defies the odds and produces. And now he takes over where the inept trio of Trent Richardson, Dan Herron and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 1300 rushing yards.
Jeremy Maclin (ADP=62, consensus=67) - Maybe he doesn't belong here? Or maybe Dwayne Bowe wasn't that good? But he could be a steal as the 27th WR taken.
Cam Newton (ADP=74, consensus=55) - Up until last year, consistently finished as a top 5 QB. And last year he played hurt and still did admirably, finishing ranked 16th.
Larry Fitzgerald (ADP=102, consensus=83) - Carson Palmer is back and Fitz has great hands. Nice value as a WR2.
Steve Smith Sr. (ADP=93, consensus=88) - Pitta is a question mark, and on the other side is a rookie. Add in the historic results of a first-year Trestman offense and even with limited targets, could easily rack up WR2 numbers.
Doug Martin (ADP=92, consensus=102) - All attention seems to be on Sims who actually had 2 games of negative rushing yards last year. Plus Lovie is a poor judge of talent, and it may not take long for Koetter to give Martin more touches by default.
I may revisit this in a few more weeks to either add players, or remove them.
Thoughts?
That said, there are quite a number of players that seem to be trending upwards (over-valued) and others are trending down (under-valued). Here's my view on a few:
OVER VALUED
(numbers are based on overall value)
AP (ADP=3, consensus=3) - He may hold out. Seems to be more of risk at this point for such a high selection.
Odell Beckham (ADP=11, consensus=11) - Yeah, he was phenomenal in 7 games last year. But how often do we see players with a limited body of work struggle the following year as teams plan better at defending them.
Mike Evans (ADP=27, consensus=25) - Had a real good year in 2014. But now he has a rookie QB and OC that favors running, and the TE.
Jimmy Graham (ADP=29, consensus=32) - goes from a Saints team that ranked 3rd passing to a Hawks team that ranked 27th. A difference of 1300 yards. I'm skeptical. Plus teams figured out how to defend him.
Todd Gurley (ADP=51, consensus=52) - ACL recovery issues pending. And we're talking redraft leagues for a guy who may end up on the PUP and miss 6 games which is nearly half a fantasy season.
Brandon Marshall (ADP=53, consensus=50) - Geno Smith. Need I say more.
Darren McFadden (ADP=52, consensus=89) - The consensus ranking is more realistic. Especially with the rumor that favors Randle as the starter.
TJ Yeldon (ADP=61, consensus=54) - Yes, he lands in a favorable position to start. But it is a sputtering Jacksonville offense. And talent doesn't necessarily equal success.
Julius Thomas (ADP=73, consensus=87) - No way does he hit double-digit TD in Jacksonville like he did in Denver.
UNDER VALUED
TY Hilton (ADP=25, consensus=28) - High-powered offense with a steady QB. Those are better conditions than a few other WR being drafted ahead of him.
Frank Gore (ADP=33, consensus=37) - So he's old. He continually defies the odds and produces. And now he takes over where the inept trio of Trent Richardson, Dan Herron and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 1300 rushing yards.
Jeremy Maclin (ADP=62, consensus=67) - Maybe he doesn't belong here? Or maybe Dwayne Bowe wasn't that good? But he could be a steal as the 27th WR taken.
Cam Newton (ADP=74, consensus=55) - Up until last year, consistently finished as a top 5 QB. And last year he played hurt and still did admirably, finishing ranked 16th.
Larry Fitzgerald (ADP=102, consensus=83) - Carson Palmer is back and Fitz has great hands. Nice value as a WR2.
Steve Smith Sr. (ADP=93, consensus=88) - Pitta is a question mark, and on the other side is a rookie. Add in the historic results of a first-year Trestman offense and even with limited targets, could easily rack up WR2 numbers.
Doug Martin (ADP=92, consensus=102) - All attention seems to be on Sims who actually had 2 games of negative rushing yards last year. Plus Lovie is a poor judge of talent, and it may not take long for Koetter to give Martin more touches by default.
I may revisit this in a few more weeks to either add players, or remove them.
Thoughts?
