2014 Breakouts

[tlance]

Discussion time!

What better way to kill the time between now and opening day than talking about the next big breakouts! You know, the Jean Segura, Chris Davis, Jose Fernandez type performers that can often make the difference between a middle of the pack finish and a title.

I will put a couple names out there, but let's get a good dialogue going here.

-Wilson Ramos: Ramos had the 4th highest fly ball distance in MLB last year. He bats low in the Nats line-up and he is a serious injury risk, but he has every bit as much hitting talent as the elite catcher options. Given the price tag, he is a guy you will want to pay attention to on draft day.

-Mark Trumbo: I am not sure that I like Trumbo as a long term investment. His inability to walk is going to make him a pretty terrible hitter when his bat starts to slow down a little. For now though, he has elite power. Don't be surprised to see him post a 40+ HR (maybe 45+) year with a playable BA. Just don't pick him in the first round the year after, because unlike Chris Davis, Trumbo does not have the right approach to repeat it.

 

[Chef99]

Discussion time!

What better way to kill the time between now and opening day than talking about the next big breakouts! You know, the Jean Segura, Chris Davis, Jose Fernandez type performers that can often make the difference between a middle of the pack finish and a title.

I will put a couple names out there, but let's get a good dialogue going here.

-Wilson Ramos: Ramos had the 4th highest fly ball distance in MLB last year. He bats low in the Nats line-up and he is a serious injury risk, but he has every bit as much hitting talent as the elite catcher options. Given the price tag, he is a guy you will want to pay attention to on draft day.

-Mark Trumbo: I am not sure that I like Trumbo as a long term investment. His inability to walk is going to make him a pretty terrible hitter when his bat starts to slow down a little. For now though, he has elite power. Don't be surprised to see him post a 40+ HR (maybe 45+) year with a playable BA. Just don't pick him in the first round the year after, because unlike Chris Davis, Trumbo does not have the right approach to repeat it.

I like Ramos and am on the fence about Trumbo. The potential HRs in Arizona will have people salivating, but the decline in BA, the lack of walks and his strikeouts are making him look more like a One Trick Pony to me. Not a first round pick to be sure. As the Good Rev told me on numerous occasions last year, he has a "holey" swing. I began to see what he meant. On the other hand? Oh, those home runs.

A few guys I like:

Jason Castro: This is pretty simple - up until the time he got hurt he was flirting with the top players at a thin position. As of now, he is only signed through the 2014 season, meaning he is in a contract year. The stars are aligning in his favor.

Xander Bogaerts: Feelin' lucky? I think I am. The fact that he was so ballyhooed last year and didn't make a great impact could make him a sneaky under-the-radar grab in the middle rounds. No (most likely) Stephen Drew and no (most likely) Bogaerts playing third base. The stars are already aligned here. I could see him possibly going in the third or fourth round.

Carlos Martinez: Look up the word "stud" in the dictionary and find his picture. 'nuff said.

 

[tlance]

Chef,

I don't think Trumbo warrants a high pick, but I could see a Richie Sexson type career trajectory where he puts up 1 special season and then fades into oblivion. He is a guy I will target in the middle rounds as long as I have a solid BA foundation and I need some big power.

As for Bogaerts, that is interesting. Would you consider him ahead of any of these guys who round out the consensus top 6?

Segura
Reyes
Desmond
Andrus

 

[Chef99]

Chef,

I don't think Trumbo warrants a high pick, but I could see a Richie Sexson type career trajectory where he puts up 1 special season and then fades into oblivion. He is a guy I will target in the middle rounds as long as I have a solid BA foundation and I need some big power.

As for Bogaerts, that is interesting. Would you consider him ahead of any of these guys who round out the consensus top 6?

Segura
Reyes
Desmond
Andrus

I'd take him over Reyes and Andrus for sure. I might lean toward him over Segura only because I'm not sure Segura isn't a one season wonder and gambling on Bogie over him kinda appeals to me. That's an interesting one. Desmond is a no-brainer, IMO.

On Reyes and Andrus: Jose is not worth having for two months of a season, and from a fantasy POV I think Elvis will never leave the building. He's a tough one: IMO, he should be leading off, but when he led off for awhile last year he didn't get the job done. Ultimately, I think his name is greater than his fantasy value. I hope I'm wrong from a baseball aspect because I have really come to like the Rangers.

 

[Chef99]

Huh. I just checked out the top 200 keeper rankings on Fantasy Assembly. With the exception of the Rev, you guys don't like Desmond very much, do you?

 

[tlance]

Huh. I just checked out the top 200 keeper rankings on Fantasy Assembly. With the exception of the Rev, you guys don't like Desmond very much, do you?

I do like Desmond. I have him ranked 3rd in my 2014 ranks that will come out in 2 weeks. I had Segura ahead of him in keeper because of his age, but I have no idea why I had Reyes ahead. I would not rank him that way now.

Any way you slice it though, it is really close with those 3 SS. They were off the board in 3 consecutive early 3rd round picks in the mock we did with Fake Teams.



Here was my comment on Desmond from those ranks: I don't recall if it was published or not.



Although he lacks the upside of those ranked higher, Desmond is the safest SS play. He is the top producer at the position over the past 2 seasons combined.

 

[Reverend Jim]

Huh. I just checked out the top 200 keeper rankings on Fantasy Assembly. With the exception of the Rev, you guys don't like Desmond very much, do you?

I'm cool like that

 

[boredoutofmymind]

BJ Upton going to come back this year. The old BJ Upton.

 

[Reverend Jim]

BJ Upton going to come back this year. The old BJ Upton.

If you're asking me, I'm counting on a 20/30 season with a .250 BA. If you ask anyone else, they'll tell you I'm on drugs. Granted it's true, but that doesn't mean Upton won't be up for comeback player of the year.

 

[Chef99]

If you're asking me, I'm counting on a 20/30 season with a .250 BA. If you ask anyone else, they'll tell you I'm on drugs. Granted it's true, but that doesn't mean Upton won't be up for comeback player of the year.

Any truth to the rumor that you're moving to Colorado for the ambience?

 

[TKOSpikes]

I'm gonna say...

Brandon Belt
Martin Perez

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Travis d'Arnaud, Mainly because i'm a biased Mets fan. But in all seriousness, think he's gonna step up big time at the plate and become a solid hitter for us somewhere in the 5-7 are of the batting order.

 

[Chef99]

Although he lacks the upside of those ranked higher, Desmond is the safest SS play. He is the top producer at the position over the past 2 seasons combined.

That actually nails it on the head about Desmond.

As for Reyes...you can't win if you don't play. Of course, now that I've said that, he won't miss a game...:rollseyes:

 

[navamind]

Matt Moore
Derek Norris
Burch Smith
Madison Bumgarner

Wouldn't be surprised if Edinson Volquez won RoY.

 

[tlance]

Matt Moore
Derek Norris
Burch Smith
Madison Bumgarner

Wouldn't be surprised if Edinson Volquez won RoY.

Bumgarner is a stud. I have a hard time trusting Matt Moore though, until he shows the ability to limit his walks. WHIP killer.