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Zaga playing their way out of a 1 seed

CatsTopPac

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I do think Duke will need to win out. Only because I think Nova and Zona will both win out as well. If Nova and Zona win out and Duke losses, you can pencil Nova as the #1 in the South and Zona as the #1 out west. Unless UVA somehow losses more than 1 game. Then Nova will be the #1 in the East assuming they win out.

If Wisky wins out and Duke doesn't, I think there is a strong argument to have them as a #1 seed. If Nova runs through a pretty weak BE tourney, and Wisky beats MD for the title, that might be good enough to leapfrog Nova.
 

Smart

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Wisconsin has the same amount of losses as Duke who beat them head to head AT Wisconsin, and who has MANY more elite wins. How in the world do you put Wisconsin ahead of Duke??

I think Wisconsin AND Arizona are better than Duke. But the resume matters, and based off of that neither of those teams deserves to be ahead of Duke as of this moment.

One of our three losses was a game where we were missing 3 starters for the second half, including the likely Wooden Award winner. The committee will discount that loss, and when they do, they will see that we are ahead of Duke in both RPI and efficiency stats. I think head-to-head overpowers, but it's not that absurd to suggest otherwise.

Right now, I think the top eight (with distance apart being representative of gaps) look like:

Kentucky




Virginia



Duke

Arizona
Villanova

Wisconsin

Gonzaga


Kansas
 

bksballer89

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I don't even Duke needs to win out to get a 1 seed.

I think if they lose to Carolina this weekend but win the ACC title which would likely include another win over both Notre Dame and Virginia that they're no doubt a 1 seed.
 

ericd7633

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You're on crack if you honestly think Wisconsin & Nova deserves a #1 seed over Duke

You can certainly make the argument for Nova over Duke

Nova:
27-2
SOS: 40
vs RPI top 25: 6-1
vs RPI top 50: 10-1
losses to #24 and #72 in RPI
Won the 2nd toughest league outright by 4 games(assuming they win out and Butler goes 1-1 as predicted)

Duke:
26-3
SOS: 10
vs RPI top 25: 4-0
vs RPI top 50: 9-2
losses to #27, #50 and #70 in the RPI
Is going to finish 2nd in a worse league.

I only bring up league record and standing because the committee does favor that when seeding. UVA being the outright ACC Champ last year along with winning the ACC tournament title was a large reason why they were a #1 seed.

However, at this point, I would SLIGHTLY lean Duke over Nova.
 

ericd7633

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I don't even Duke needs to win out to get a 1 seed.

I think if they lose to Carolina this weekend but win the ACC title which would likely include another win over both Notre Dame and Virginia that they're no doubt a 1 seed.

If that scenario does play out it would then depend of what Nova, Zona and Wisconsin do in their conference tournaments. Duke wouldn't be guaranteed anything IMO.
 

ericd7633

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If Wisky wins out and Duke doesn't, I think there is a strong argument to have them as a #1 seed. If Nova runs through a pretty weak BE tourney, and Wisky beats MD for the title, that might be good enough to leapfrog Nova.

Neither team would gain a significant amount by running through their conference tournaments. Both would get a top 25 wins, top 50 win and a outside the top 50. Assuming it went according to plan.

Not sure why everybody thinks the Big East is weak. 2nd best conference according to RPI.
 

dcZONAfan

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Neither team would gain a significant amount by running through their conference tournaments. Both would get a top 25 wins, top 50 win and a outside the top 50. Assuming it went according to plan.

Not sure why everybody thinks the Big East is weak. 2nd best conference according to RPI.
You put so much stock on RPI in my opinion, and less stock on the eye test.

It's not that the big east is weak, because it's pretty damn good. But there are just a bunch of solid and not great teams and I think that's why nobody is impressed that Nova ran away with the league. They went through their entire conference and didn't register a single ELITE victory, and because of their Non-Conf schedule they will end the year with 0 Elite wins. How does that team deserve a 1 seed when they haven't proven they can beat a top 5 or 10 team? Arizona's schedule has sucked, but at least we've had the chance at some good wins like Gonzaga and @Utah. That should be a prerequisite when it comes to getting a 1 seed.

At the beginning of the year I thought Nova was going to go undefeated in the Big East. I think Nova is a really good team that can't win the national championship. I feel the exact same way about Kansas in the B12, as I've made abundantly clear all year (although I think Nova is better than them).
 

ralphiewvu

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One of our three losses was a game where we were missing 3 starters for the second half, including the likely Wooden Award winner. The committee will discount that loss, and when they do, they will see that we are ahead of Duke in both RPI and efficiency stats. I think head-to-head overpowers, but it's not that absurd to suggest otherwise.

Right now, I think the top eight (with distance apart being representative of gaps) look like:

Kentucky




Virginia



Duke

Arizona
Villanova

Wisconsin

Gonzaga


Kansas


Smart let me first preface by saying I believe Wisky will win out and rightfully get a 1 seed.

But to your comment about the committee discounting your loss to Rutgers, that's wrong. Sure you didn't have your best player but you had 4 other starters for a half. Rutgers has won 2 games in the B10 and what 10 games overall? The committee can't discount that. Heck Penn State, Nebraska and Norwestern beat them.
 

CatsTopPac

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One of our three losses was a game where we were missing 3 starters for the second half, including the likely Wooden Award winner. The committee will discount that loss, and when they do, they will see that we are ahead of Duke in both RPI and efficiency stats. I think head-to-head overpowers, but it's not that absurd to suggest otherwise.

Right now, I think the top eight (with distance apart being representative of gaps) look like:

Kentucky




Virginia



Duke

Arizona
Villanova

Wisconsin

Gonzaga


Kansas


Hahaha, I don't know, Smart. For some reason, Wisky scares the SHIT out of me. :pout:

I didn't downplay you guys at all last year; but overall, UW has more than proven to me that they can rise to any occasion... especially whenever Kaminsky gets hot. To me, UK, UVA, and Wisky are the only three teams I've felt have been continuous NC treats all year.
 

CatsTopPac

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Just thinking
You put so much stock on RPI in my opinion, and less stock on the eye test.

It's not that the big east is weak, because it's pretty damn good. But there are just a bunch of solid and not great teams and I think that's why nobody is impressed that Nova ran away with the league. They went through their entire conference and didn't register a single ELITE victory, and because of their Non-Conf schedule they will end the year with 0 Elite wins. How does that team deserve a 1 seed when they haven't proven they can beat a top 5 or 10 team? Arizona's schedule has sucked, but at least we've had the chance at some good wins like Gonzaga and @Utah. That should be a prerequisite when it comes to getting a 1 seed.

At the beginning of the year I thought Nova was going to go undefeated in the Big East. I think Nova is a really good team that can't win the national championship. I feel the exact same way about Kansas in the B12, as I've made abundantly clear all year (although I think Nova is better than them).

Just thinking about ELITE victories. I tend to agree, it's one of my arguments against GU as a #1 seed, even had they not lost.

So Wisky really doesn't have an ELITE victory. Beating MD for the B1G 'chip will count to me.

Nova, doesn't have one, and neither do the Zags or WSU. Those three also don't have any further opportunities to get one either. Duke has a couple, and so do AZ and UVA. All three of those schools have an opportunity to get one more. UK has 1, and so does KU. Neither of those two have an opportunity to get another. All of that is pretty conservative in terms of defining ELITE wins. I'd say beating a top 13 team on the road or neutral court, or beating a top 10 team anywhere might suffice as ELITE. I chose 13 because the top 14-16 in the polls change, and so I went conservative to go 13. I also didn't include any home wins outside the top ten, again, as a conservative measure of "ELITE".

Obviously it is only one measure, but I think those elite wins are a valuable gauge.
 
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