You get 3 teams to make as much money as you can

[Clayton]

Patriots 6/1. Looking at their division makes me think they have about a 50% chance of getting HFA. This bet looks fair and worth taking.

Falcons 30/1. Atlanta was banged up last year so 30/1 on a bounceback pick with a likely top 5 offense doesn't seem that bad.

Broncos 60/1. The longshot odds I like the most. I figure they have at least a 60/1 odds that the Chiefs and Chargers both take a step back and if Flacco gets into the playoffs with a potentially top defense then the Broncos making some noise wouldn't be the craziest thing ever.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I think Indy could very easily represent the AFC in the SB this coming year. If Luck is healthy, they don't really have a weakness. Marlon Mack seems to have rounded out into a pretty solid option at RB, the OL has become solid, and their WR/TE group is amazing. From what I'm hearing, Parris Campbell has been tearing it up so far, which makes them even scarier.

Jax and Hou do have some major question marks, but they have the pieces to be very, very dangerous. The AFC seems to be head and shoulders above the NFC this year.

IND's D doesn't really seem to have top 10 talent so I don't know if that will repeat this year, but agreed, if Luck stays healthy, out of DIV road games are stiff but they should be a playoff team. I don't see them having enough wins for a 1 or 2 seed this season, so they will likely have to win the AFCCG on the road...iffy, but possible.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I don’t see the Seahawks of having a roster capabale

But you did pick:

Vikings - don't have the QB to win a SB, barely a playoff team
Chargers - they can't even win their own division or get to the AFCCG or beat the Pats. Not a bad pick bc of the talent just can't trust them in big games.
Texans - injuries and not consistent enough

I threw the Seahawks in there for odds or else I would have went a combo of these teams: Pats, Saints, Rams, Chiefs, possibly Colts (gotta see more)

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Patriots 6/1. Looking at their division makes me think they have about a 50% chance of getting HFA. This bet looks fair and worth taking.

Falcons 30/1. Atlanta was banged up last year so 30/1 on a bounceback pick with a likely top 5 offense doesn't seem that bad.

Broncos 60/1. The longshot odds I like the most. I figure they have at least a 60/1 odds that the Chiefs and Chargers both take a step back and if Flacco gets into the playoffs with a potentially top defense then the Broncos making some noise wouldn't be the craziest thing ever.

ATL...they did have a lot of injuries, major injuries. The one area they did not have any injuries was edge rusher, yet they still struggled mightily to get QBs on the ground or even hurried...if Takk and Vic Beasley can find some consistency getting to the QB, with Quinn now calling the DEF, they should be better.

Falcons should be a 10-11 game winner so they might not be a bad pick at 30-1.

 

[Shanemansj13]

But you did pick:

Vikings - don't have the QB to win a SB, barely a playoff team
Chargers - they can't even win their own division or get to the AFCCG or beat the Pats. Not a bad pick bc of the talent just can't trust them in big games.
Texans - injuries and not consistent enough

I threw the Seahawks in there for odds or else I would have went a combo of these teams: Pats, Saints, Rams, Chiefs, possibly Colts (gotta see more)

Falcons is also a team I overlooked. I would take those 30-1 odds in a heartbeat

 

[Iggloo]

OK, so I am approaching this like a portfolio manager, with one low-risk pick, one middle risk pick, and one high-risk pick.

Pats (6/1)

Bears (20/1)

Texans (40/1)

I am not throwing money away on dumbass picks like the Giants at 125/1 no matter what the potential payoff, because I see no chance of that happening.

 

[eaglesnut]

Pats 6/1 - no competition in the very weak AFC.

Eagles 16/1 - battle tested, mean defense. Best offensive mind in the league.

Falcons 30/1 - best of the longer odds. NFC is very deep and they are tough at home and got their OC back. They're enough removed now from their disastrous back to back season ending games in 2017, 2018.

 

[Iggloo]

Much as I dislike them, Dallas at 22/1 isn't a bad pick either.

 

[Shanemansj13]

OK, so I am approaching this like a portfolio manager, with one low-risk pick, one middle risk pick, and one high-risk pick.

Pats (6/1)

Bears (20/1)

Texans (40/1)

I am not throwing money away on dumbass picks like the Giants at 125/1 no matter what the potential payoff, because I see no chance of that happening.

Yeah I would do the same.

Pats

Saints or Chiefs

Falcons or Cowboys

 

[rmilia1]

Chargers
Falcons
Jags

Put a grand on Atlanta at 35-1 last month and a grand on the Jags at 40-1.

Atlanta is the biggest futures mover since the lines opened ( 40-1 to 30-1 )

Those 3 teams have probably 3 of the 10 best rosters in the league and all of them addressee issues this off-season that caused them to underachieve last year . I think at least 2 of the 3 make the playoffs ( although I have all 3 in ) so bundling those 3 gives you a min 6.5 to 1 payout on a 4/1 to 6/1 bet imo

 

[Clayton]

OK, so I am approaching this like a portfolio manager, with one low-risk pick, one middle risk pick, and one high-risk pick.

Pats (6/1)

Bears (20/1)

Texans (40/1)

I am not throwing money away on dumbass picks like the Giants at 125/1 no matter what the potential payoff, because I see no chance of that happening.

Thats how I approached it, too.

Bears and Texans have a high variability. Young QBs that could get better, defenses that maybe aren't as good as they were last year. If either team hits on the QB and defense then they have as good a chance as anyone. Texans in particular might be interesting if Will Fuller ever played a full season.

 

[rmilia1]

Betting any future with better than 12-1 odds is a bad bet especially if you're grouping it with 2 other futures. Like obviously the Pats have a great shot to win but you're betting 3 teams and at 6-1 NE brings your potential payout odds way down . While people may not want to "throw money away " on long shots it's actually even worse to bet favorites on future bundles

 

[Shanemansj13]

Betting any future with better than 12-1 odds is a bad bet especially if you're grouping it with 2 other futures. Like obviously the Pats have a great shot to win but you're betting 3 teams and at 6-1 NE brings your potential payout odds way down . While people may not want to "throw money away " on long shots it's actually even worse to bet favorites on future bundles

As much as I love great odds I have to look at it as a way to make money, not possibly make a ton of money that most likely won't happen.

Here are last years odds going into the 2018-2019 season:

New England Patriots 6-1 - winner
Los Angeles Rams 10-1 - went to SB
Philadelphia Eagles 10-1 - lost in NFC div
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1 - no playoffs
Minnesota Vikings 10-1 - no playoffs
Green Bay Packers 12-1 - no playoffs
New Orleans Saints 14-1 - NFC CG
Jacksonville Jaguars 16-1 - no playoffs
Atlanta Falcons 16-1 - no playoffs
Los Angeles Chargers 16-1 - lost in AFC div
Houston Texans 20- - lost in wild card
Kansas City Chiefs 20-1 - AFC CG
Oakland Raiders 20-1 - no playoffs
Baltimore Ravens 25-1 - lost in AFC div
Tennessee Titans 25-1 - no playoffs
Dallas Cowboys 30-1 - lost in NFC div
San Francisco 49ers 30-1 - no playoffs
Carolina Panthers 30-1 - no playoffs
New York Giants 30-1 - no playoffs
Denver Broncos 40-1 - no playoffs
Indianapolis Colts 40-1 - lost in AFC div
Seattle Seahawks 60-1 - lost in NFC WC
Chicago Bears 100-1 - lost in NFC WC

I would probably go not too risky but more of safe bets and one longshot. Not every year is going to be like last year but when you starting getting into 40-1 odds there is basically no chance that team will win the SB, let alone get deep into the playoffs.
The Chiefs were the closest thing to winning one and 20-1 odds.

If I were to skip the Pats bet with a train of thought the Pats have never won back to back SB's. Ok now I want to lay down $1,000 on 3 teams. I would probably go one homerun and two safe bets:

PICK TWO (KC, LAR, NO, LAC) - if you win you still get paid out anywhere from $8,000 to $14,000

PICK ONE LONGSHOT - (ATL, JAX, SEATTLE, DALLAS) - Get paid out anywhere from $22K to $40K but odds are very slim.

 

[rmilia1]

As much as I love great odds I have to look at it as a way to make money, not possibly make a ton of money that most likely won't happen.

Here are last years odds going into the 2018-2019 season:

New England Patriots 6-1 - winner
Los Angeles Rams 10-1 - went to SB
Philadelphia Eagles 10-1 - lost in NFC div
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1 - no playoffs
Minnesota Vikings 10-1 - no playoffs
Green Bay Packers 12-1 - no playoffs
New Orleans Saints 14-1 - NFC CG
Jacksonville Jaguars 16-1 - no playoffs
Atlanta Falcons 16-1 - no playoffs
Los Angeles Chargers 16-1 - lost in AFC div
Houston Texans 20- - lost in wild card
Kansas City Chiefs 20-1 - AFC CG
Oakland Raiders 20-1 - no playoffs
Baltimore Ravens 25-1 - lost in AFC div
Tennessee Titans 25-1 - no playoffs
Dallas Cowboys 30-1 - lost in NFC div
San Francisco 49ers 30-1 - no playoffs
Carolina Panthers 30-1 - no playoffs
New York Giants 30-1 - no playoffs
Denver Broncos 40-1 - no playoffs
Indianapolis Colts 40-1 - lost in AFC div
Seattle Seahawks 60-1 - lost in NFC WC
Chicago Bears 100-1 - lost in NFC WC

I would probably go not too risky but more of safe bets and one longshot. Not every year is going to be like last year but when you starting getting into 40-1 odds there is basically no chance that team will win the SB, let alone get deep into the playoffs.
The Chiefs were the closest thing to winning one and 20-1 odds.

If I were to skip the Pats bet with a train of thought the Pats have never won back to back SB's. Ok now I want to lay down $1,000 on 3 teams. I would probably go one homerun and two safe bets:

PICK TWO (KC, LAR, NO, LAC) - if you win you still get paid out anywhere from $8,000 to $14,000

PICK ONE LONGSHOT - (ATL, JAX, SEATTLE, DALLAS) - Get paid out anywhere from $22K to $40K but odds are very slim.

Yeah but last year was more of an anomaly. You've got to remember when betting futures you don't actually need to win the future bet to make money . You just need your bet to make the title game . Then you can hedge and ein either way .

Example if you'd bet Carolina in 2015, Atlanta in 2016 or Philly in 2017 ( all 20-1 plus ) you'd have cleaned up even with 2 of the 3 losing because you'd have just hedged half your payout on Denver and NE ( 15 and 16 )

Futures are really just about betting on teams to MAKE title games ( which is why short odds dont payoff if you're betting multiples )

 

[SteelersPride]

But you did pick:

Vikings - don't have the QB to win a SB, barely a playoff team
Chargers - they can't even win their own division or get to the AFCCG or beat the Pats. Not a bad pick bc of the talent just can't trust them in big games.
Texans - injuries and not consistent enough

I threw the Seahawks in there for odds or else I would have went a combo of these teams: Pats, Saints, Rams, Chiefs, possibly Colts (gotta see more)

With those receivers and backs maybe Kirk puts it together. His d is good.

Chargers I just think Phillip gets a ring before he goes

Texans injuries were last year and improved line

 

[molsaniceman]

As much as I love great odds I have to look at it as a way to make money, not possibly make a ton of money that most likely won't happen.

Here are last years odds going into the 2018-2019 season:

New England Patriots 6-1 - winner
Los Angeles Rams 10-1 - went to SB
Philadelphia Eagles 10-1 - lost in NFC div
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1 - no playoffs
Minnesota Vikings 10-1 - no playoffs
Green Bay Packers 12-1 - no playoffs
New Orleans Saints 14-1 - NFC CG
Jacksonville Jaguars 16-1 - no playoffs
Atlanta Falcons 16-1 - no playoffs
Los Angeles Chargers 16-1 - lost in AFC div
Houston Texans 20- - lost in wild card
Kansas City Chiefs 20-1 - AFC CG
Oakland Raiders 20-1 - no playoffs
Baltimore Ravens 25-1 - lost in AFC div
Tennessee Titans 25-1 - no playoffs
Dallas Cowboys 30-1 - lost in NFC div
San Francisco 49ers 30-1 - no playoffs
Carolina Panthers 30-1 - no playoffs
New York Giants 30-1 - no playoffs
Denver Broncos 40-1 - no playoffs
Indianapolis Colts 40-1 - lost in AFC div
Seattle Seahawks 60-1 - lost in NFC WC
Chicago Bears 100-1 - lost in NFC WC

I would probably go not too risky but more of safe bets and one longshot. Not every year is going to be like last year but when you starting getting into 40-1 odds there is basically no chance that team will win the SB, let alone get deep into the playoffs.
The Chiefs were the closest thing to winning one and 20-1 odds.

If I were to skip the Pats bet with a train of thought the Pats have never won back to back SB's. Ok now I want to lay down $1,000 on 3 teams. I would probably go one homerun and two safe bets:

PICK TWO (KC, LAR, NO, LAC) - if you win you still get paid out anywhere from $8,000 to $14,000

PICK ONE LONGSHOT - (ATL, JAX, SEATTLE, DALLAS) - Get paid out anywhere from $22K to $40K but odds are very slim.

so u werent watching football in 03/04

 

[Iggloo]

Patriots 6/1. Looking at their division makes me think they have about a 50% chance of getting HFA. This bet looks fair and worth taking.

Falcons 30/1. Atlanta was banged up last year so 30/1 on a bounceback pick with a likely top 5 offense doesn't seem that bad.

Broncos 60/1. The longshot odds I like the most. I figure they have at least a 60/1 odds that the Chiefs and Chargers both take a step back and if Flacco gets into the playoffs with a potentially top defense then the Broncos making some noise wouldn't be the craziest thing ever.

I thought about Denver, but while I could see them making a strong playoff push, I just don't see that team winning a ring even if everything goes right. I think a second round playoff loss is probably the ceiling for the Donkeys.

With the Pats, Bears and Texans, I can see scenarios where--if everything goes right--they can actually win it all.

I am not a believer in Matty Ice, he is never going to win shit.

 

[Shanemansj13]

With those receivers and backs maybe Kirk puts it together. His d is good.

Chargers I just think Phillip gets a ring before he goes

Texans injuries were last year and improved line

 

[Shanemansj13]

so u werent watching football in 03/04

That was a long time ago I'm getting old

 

[Shanemansj13]

Yeah but last year was more of an anomaly. You've got to remember when betting futures you don't actually need to win the future bet to make money . You just need your bet to make the title game . Then you can hedge and ein either way .

Example if you'd bet Carolina in 2015, Atlanta in 2016 or Philly in 2017 ( all 20-1 plus ) you'd have cleaned up even with 2 of the 3 losing because you'd have just hedged half your payout on Denver and NE ( 15 and 16 )

Futures are really just about betting on teams to MAKE title games ( which is why short odds dont payoff if you're betting multiples )

Yeah true hedging your bet is definitely the way to go but either way picking two teams at 40-1 odds still isnt that likely they make the SB, it is possible though.

So how many true contenders to win a SB are their really out there?

AFC
NE
LA Chargers
KC
Indy (maybe)
PIT (maybe)
JAX (maybe)

NFC
LA Rams
NO
PHI (maybe)
DAL
CHI (maybe)
ATL (maybe)

There are always years where a team comes out of nowhere wins the division and goes on a streak getting into the SB but not that likely.

Only 3 of those teams have 20-1 great odds. So if you just give NE the AFC and try to pick who you think will make the NFC Championship game that could be a good plan. Rams and Saints are the most talented, Dallas and Chicago have the defense. Philly could be dangerous if Wentz is heathly. Atlanta has the offense. A lot of options.

I will keep my money and not bet at all LOL