- Thread starter
- #1
iowajerms
Well-Known Member
- 20,650
- 2,780
- 293
- Joined
- Sep 1, 2011
- Location
- Iowa, US
- Hoopla Cash
- $ 29,091.39
- Fav. Team #1
- Fav. Team #2
- Fav. Team #3
Let’s say you’re a hot, up-and-coming head coach in a Group of 5 league. You’ve got job opportunities in every one of the Power 5 conferences. If you’re picking solely based on title path -- the fastest way to the College Football Playoff -- which conference do you choose?
Here's my ranking of every division in the major conferences, going from most ideal to join as a new coach to the most difficult. Easiest to hardest. (I’m counting the Big 12 as one 10-team division. It’s a reasonable way to view it since, like the divisions in the other four leagues, everyone plays everyone.)
1. Big Ten West
Nebraska, currently 8-1, is the perfect case study of why this is the division where a coach would most want to land. NU is still in playoff contention, albeit on the periphery. The Huskers’ best win of the eight is Miami, out of conference. The second? Well. Hm. At Northwestern … I guess? If you show up and perform somewhat functionally, you’ll have seven or eight wins. Sign me up. Look at Minnesota. The Gophers, despite losing at Illinois last week (!), are 6-2 and still in the heart of the division race. Sign me up.
2. SEC East
Missouri is No. 35 in Football Outsiders’ team efficiency ranks. That doesn’t suggest division leader. And yet the team that improbably won the SEC East a year ago leads it again.
So much for its inability to compete in the SEC. Mizzou, it turns out, joined the correct side of the league.
Georgia, despite a wealth of talent, is a regular underachiever; 2014 is no exception. The fate of Florida’s coach (and future) is still up in the air, and there’s creeping doubt about Steve Spurrier’s not-too-distant future at South Carolina.
Kentucky and Tennessee are making progress -- but largely due to the futility of the long-held powers. This is the time and place to jump in if you want an SEC job.
3. ACC Coastal
It’s deep, but there’s seemingly never an outright favorite. With less talent but second-to-none coaching, Duke has become the standard in the otherwise volatile division.
If the league office had its way, Miami would take off under Al Golden and create the possibility of epic FSU-Miami ACC title games. But it just hasn’t happened.
After the Week 2 skunking of Ohio State, Virginia Tech sunk back into its three-season-long regression. It’s fair to wonder about Frank Beamer’s timeline there, or the school’s plan for the program after Beamer.
Virginia and Georgia Tech’s coaches have flirted with the hot seat. The fact that the Yellow Jackets -- who nearly lost at home to Georgia Southern -- are in the College Football Playoff top 25 says a lot about the possibilities in the division for an innovative coach.
4. ACC Atlantic
It’s undoubtedly top heavy, with Florida State finally waking up last season to figure out it had the talent to again become a national power. Clemson has found its niche as good-but-not-elite. Even so, it would be consistently competitive in every division in college football.
Despite the top two, there’s room for a program to wiggle into the top tier. Louisville provides the perfect example. Heck, the whole program is new to the ACC, not just the coach. And yet the Cardinals were close to beating both FSU and Clemson.
So long as Petrino doesn’t again sabotage himself, the Cards will be factors moving forward, proving someone can enter the Atlantic and immediately win.
5. Big Ten East
It’s essentially a two-team division in 2014, but expect that to change.
You can bank on Michigan finding a solid coach for its next hire; it’ll be back. James Franklin’s recruiting ability will return Penn State to prominence.
Ohio State has been recruiting that aggressively for years; it’ll be OK as long as Urban Meyer stays. Michigan State has hit its stride in terms of sustainability.
Even Maryland can be sneaky good because of the area it recruits. If I’m breaking in, that’d be a job I’d want. The Terps could jump up and win the division every few years.
If you’re looking for a division on the rise, one to watch in the coming years, this is it.
6. Pac-12 North
Not long ago, this division was in the same breath as the SEC West. Now there are questions.
Until Oregon reaches the playoff, and perhaps wins a national title, doubt will persist about its place among the sport’s elite. Stanford finally took that long-awaited step back; can the Cardinal rebound, or is this a long-run trend? Will the dip chase David Shaw to the NFL?
Washington has plenty of promise with Chris Petersen. I continue to hear good things about the direction he’ll steer the Huskies.
With second-year coach Sonny Dykes, Cal (5-4, 3-4 Pac-12) is showing it’s possible to find a foothold in this division.
7. Pac-12 South
The depth is tremendous. Even Kyle Whittingham, somewhere near the hot seat a year ago, has Utah (6-2) in a place where it’s viable.
USC will soon be past its NCAA-induced roster issues. Jim Mora has made UCLA a perennial competitor.
The two Arizona schools are particularly on the rise, with Arizona State mining junior colleges for impact talent and Arizona getting early success from young skill players.
I don’t see anyone going backward in this division. It’s not where you want to be if you’re a first-year coach.
8. Big 12
The fact that Oklahoma and Texas, as brand name as it gets, have lost their stranglehold on the league says a lot about the Big 12’s depth.
Look at the most recent conference champs: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor. Now TCU is threatening to break through and West Virginia isn’t far behind.
The Frogs and Mountaineers arrived at just the right time because someone coming in now would have a tough time climbing.
Texas Tech is a good citation of the struggle. I think second-year coach Kliff Kingsbury is a very intelligent guy, and he’s a beacon of positivity. But the Red Raiders have beaten just one Big 12 team since the middle of the 2013 season.
9. SEC West
Arkansas is just one spot behind SEC East-leading Missouri in Football Outsiders’ team efficiency ratings -- but it cannot manage to win an SEC game. Seventeen losses in a row and counting.
If anyone knows this is the division you don't want to join, it’s Bret Bielema.
Or Kevin Sumlin, for that matter. Even though Texas A&M appeared to have momentum in his first two seasons, the Aggies still finished third in the West in 2012 and fourth in 2013. They are staring down the barrel of sixth in ’14.
The rise of Ole Miss and Mississippi State has been promising, but let’s see how they finish the season. I know more than a few coaches who think we’re still destined for a winner-take-all Iron Bowl, just like last season.
Here's my ranking of every division in the major conferences, going from most ideal to join as a new coach to the most difficult. Easiest to hardest. (I’m counting the Big 12 as one 10-team division. It’s a reasonable way to view it since, like the divisions in the other four leagues, everyone plays everyone.)
1. Big Ten West
Nebraska, currently 8-1, is the perfect case study of why this is the division where a coach would most want to land. NU is still in playoff contention, albeit on the periphery. The Huskers’ best win of the eight is Miami, out of conference. The second? Well. Hm. At Northwestern … I guess? If you show up and perform somewhat functionally, you’ll have seven or eight wins. Sign me up. Look at Minnesota. The Gophers, despite losing at Illinois last week (!), are 6-2 and still in the heart of the division race. Sign me up.
2. SEC East
Missouri is No. 35 in Football Outsiders’ team efficiency ranks. That doesn’t suggest division leader. And yet the team that improbably won the SEC East a year ago leads it again.
So much for its inability to compete in the SEC. Mizzou, it turns out, joined the correct side of the league.
Georgia, despite a wealth of talent, is a regular underachiever; 2014 is no exception. The fate of Florida’s coach (and future) is still up in the air, and there’s creeping doubt about Steve Spurrier’s not-too-distant future at South Carolina.
Kentucky and Tennessee are making progress -- but largely due to the futility of the long-held powers. This is the time and place to jump in if you want an SEC job.
3. ACC Coastal
It’s deep, but there’s seemingly never an outright favorite. With less talent but second-to-none coaching, Duke has become the standard in the otherwise volatile division.
If the league office had its way, Miami would take off under Al Golden and create the possibility of epic FSU-Miami ACC title games. But it just hasn’t happened.
After the Week 2 skunking of Ohio State, Virginia Tech sunk back into its three-season-long regression. It’s fair to wonder about Frank Beamer’s timeline there, or the school’s plan for the program after Beamer.
Virginia and Georgia Tech’s coaches have flirted with the hot seat. The fact that the Yellow Jackets -- who nearly lost at home to Georgia Southern -- are in the College Football Playoff top 25 says a lot about the possibilities in the division for an innovative coach.
4. ACC Atlantic
It’s undoubtedly top heavy, with Florida State finally waking up last season to figure out it had the talent to again become a national power. Clemson has found its niche as good-but-not-elite. Even so, it would be consistently competitive in every division in college football.
Despite the top two, there’s room for a program to wiggle into the top tier. Louisville provides the perfect example. Heck, the whole program is new to the ACC, not just the coach. And yet the Cardinals were close to beating both FSU and Clemson.
So long as Petrino doesn’t again sabotage himself, the Cards will be factors moving forward, proving someone can enter the Atlantic and immediately win.
5. Big Ten East
It’s essentially a two-team division in 2014, but expect that to change.
You can bank on Michigan finding a solid coach for its next hire; it’ll be back. James Franklin’s recruiting ability will return Penn State to prominence.
Ohio State has been recruiting that aggressively for years; it’ll be OK as long as Urban Meyer stays. Michigan State has hit its stride in terms of sustainability.
Even Maryland can be sneaky good because of the area it recruits. If I’m breaking in, that’d be a job I’d want. The Terps could jump up and win the division every few years.
If you’re looking for a division on the rise, one to watch in the coming years, this is it.
6. Pac-12 North
Not long ago, this division was in the same breath as the SEC West. Now there are questions.
Until Oregon reaches the playoff, and perhaps wins a national title, doubt will persist about its place among the sport’s elite. Stanford finally took that long-awaited step back; can the Cardinal rebound, or is this a long-run trend? Will the dip chase David Shaw to the NFL?
Washington has plenty of promise with Chris Petersen. I continue to hear good things about the direction he’ll steer the Huskies.
With second-year coach Sonny Dykes, Cal (5-4, 3-4 Pac-12) is showing it’s possible to find a foothold in this division.
7. Pac-12 South
The depth is tremendous. Even Kyle Whittingham, somewhere near the hot seat a year ago, has Utah (6-2) in a place where it’s viable.
USC will soon be past its NCAA-induced roster issues. Jim Mora has made UCLA a perennial competitor.
The two Arizona schools are particularly on the rise, with Arizona State mining junior colleges for impact talent and Arizona getting early success from young skill players.
I don’t see anyone going backward in this division. It’s not where you want to be if you’re a first-year coach.
8. Big 12
The fact that Oklahoma and Texas, as brand name as it gets, have lost their stranglehold on the league says a lot about the Big 12’s depth.
Look at the most recent conference champs: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor. Now TCU is threatening to break through and West Virginia isn’t far behind.
The Frogs and Mountaineers arrived at just the right time because someone coming in now would have a tough time climbing.
Texas Tech is a good citation of the struggle. I think second-year coach Kliff Kingsbury is a very intelligent guy, and he’s a beacon of positivity. But the Red Raiders have beaten just one Big 12 team since the middle of the 2013 season.
9. SEC West
Arkansas is just one spot behind SEC East-leading Missouri in Football Outsiders’ team efficiency ratings -- but it cannot manage to win an SEC game. Seventeen losses in a row and counting.
If anyone knows this is the division you don't want to join, it’s Bret Bielema.
Or Kevin Sumlin, for that matter. Even though Texas A&M appeared to have momentum in his first two seasons, the Aggies still finished third in the West in 2012 and fourth in 2013. They are staring down the barrel of sixth in ’14.
The rise of Ole Miss and Mississippi State has been promising, but let’s see how they finish the season. I know more than a few coaches who think we’re still destined for a winner-take-all Iron Bowl, just like last season.
