When's the right time to cut bait: Pitchers

[Reverend Jim]

Welcome to part to of when is the right time to cut bait. Before we get started, lets view the hitters mentioned in the hitters edition and see if there has been any change in the past week.

Andrelton Simmons (CBS 70% down from 72 – Yahoo still 42%)
Adam Dunn (67% CBS – 62% Yahoo No Change)
Victor Martinez (82% CBS down from 84 – No change on yahoo 89%)
Dan Uggla (85% CBS down from 89% - 66% Yahoo down from70)
Ichiro Suzuki (66% CBS down from 68 – 53% Yahoo down from 55)
Mike Moustakas (72% CBS down from 76 – 53% yahoo down from 56)

It’s easier to cast judgment on a slumping hitter. You’ve seen him every day for the past month, close to 75 to 100 at bats. You can make assumptions on walk and strikeout rates, where they are hitting in the order or where they have been dropped to what they are batting, etc..,

Pitchers on the other hand you have a much smaller sample size to judge them by. On average most pitchers have started 6 games. You would like to give them a little more time to see if they will correct themselves but by doing so you take several risks. First is that player can possibly do you more harm than good if you keep running him out there hoping that this is the matchup he breaks out. The second is you run the risk of passing up some potential useful players on waivers, or worse yet letting your opponent take advantage of them leaving you with a bunch of broken players you wish you never drafted.

Just like last week there are to many players to cover so I will address a few that have been on my teams as well as some others that I have seen people question here and on other boards. Feel free to agree or disagree below, or add your own player if he was not one of the ones listed here. Lets begin (ownership in parenthesis)

And remember use your own discretion if you play in a AL or NL only league, or in any league larger than 12 teams as leagues like this have very little talent left on the waiver wire. In these cases, use your own discretion.

Jarrod Parker (50% CBS down from 58 – 43%Yahoo down from 47)
Parker had an encouraging rookie season giving owners reason to believe he was the real deal (as evident by his 165 ADP). History tells us two things will happen to a rookie pitcher in his second year, he’ll either have continued success with the occasional rookie hiccup or he will fall victim to the dreaded sophomore slump. Parker seems to be taking the latter approach of the two. He’s given up 4 or more runs in 4 of the 6 games he has started, the worst being an 8 run 3.1 inning stinker vs Detroit. His minor league BB/9 was 3.24 so last years 3.13 was right in line, but this year it sits at 4.91. His K/9 last year was just below 7 but in 6 starts this year it’s a mediocre 5.5. Home runs were never really a problem for him but he’s given up 4 in less than 30 innings this season.
With a 7.36 ERA and a 2.01 WHIP, I think it’s safe to say Parker has been a disappointment. Should you hold out hope…yes. Should he be on your roster right now though…no. There are a number of useful or streaming options available in the f/a market you can use this spot for. He may come around (it may take a trip back to the minors for him to figure things out), but until he starts to show signs of life you can safely hide him on the waiver wire and monitor his progress from there. And if someone jumps and picks him up, just wait for the June call ups and I’m sure you’ll be able to grab another young stud to do just what he did last season.

Josh Beckett (71% CBS down from 77 – 60% Yahoo down from 65)
If you’ve been playing FBB for a while, there is a good chance you’ve owned blister Beckett at least once for one of your fantasy team. He was always a good source of K’s, gave you a respectable WHIP and an ERA in the 3 range. Starting in 2006 he started a new trend of alternating good years (07-09-11) with bad ones (06-08-10-12). Given how he finished the season after being traded to the Dodgers (2.93ERA, 1.33WHIP, 38K’s in 43 Innings) and given his odd/even trend, this should be Beckett’s year. Not so fast though.
Over the past few years he’s been losing a tic here and there from his fast ball. He used his fastball 59% of the time in 2009, but that dropped to 36% in 2010, 35% in 2011, 28% in 2012 and 30% this year. His changeup on the other hand was only used 3% of the time in 2009, and that increased to 11.5% in 2010, 14% in 2011, 16% in 2012 and 19% this year. That’s not a good trend for a guy who was supposed to be a power pitcher. Home runs have also been a problem in the past but this season he’s given up 8 in 34 innings of work. At age 33 one has to wonder if this is the beginning of the end for Josh Beckett.
I’ll admit I’m part of that 60% ownership in Yahoo, but Beckett hasn’t seen my active lineup for several weeks and is dangerously close to being dropped. In 10 team leagues feel free to do so, especially if you have a limited bench. For 12 team leagues if you have the bench room I’d hold him for another few starts just to see if things improve any in May, but if it looks like more of the same over those few starts then do what you have to do without regret.

Brandon McCarthy (28% CBS down from 34 – 31% Yahoo down from 34)
McCarthy was a high hope speculative pick in most drafts, being taken from round 17 on down. Injuries have always been his achillies heel as he’s cracked the 150 innings count just once. He’s always had potential but never really lived up to it until he went to A’s in 2011. His home/road splits where a full run apart, but his road ERA for those two years didn’t go above 4 leading people to believe that he had turned the corner. He left the cozy confines of Oakland for Arizona which could have affected his numbers, but he also went from the AL to the NL so a repeat of his previous 2 years was a reasonable expectation.
To date McCarthy is 0-3 with a 7.22 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP (which is surprising since he’s only allowed 5 free passes this year). Home runs have been a problem for him in the past and he’s given up 5 in the past 4 games. He showed great K potential in the minors but has averaged only 6.15 in the majors. So what is wrong with him this year? He’s getting hit……hard. He’s given up 53 hits in just 33 innings and you can’t put that many people on base and not expect bad things to happen. His FIP currently sits at 4.07 & his XFIP is a 3.84 so some of this can be chalked up to bad luck, but even if things do start to even out a pitcher with a 4 ERA is something you can find on waivers. He can turn things around but for now, let him do that on the waiver wire and find something (anything useful to fill in that spot).

I use to many words (go figure) so the rest of this is continued below.

 

[Reverend Jim]

Dan Haren (67% Yahoo up from 52)
For years Haren has been money putting up close to 200 K’s, a WHIP in the 1.1-1.2 range and an ERA in the low 3’s. He’s a work horse that you could count on to eat up 200 plus innings and was basically a set it and forget it type of pitcher. Last year was the first time since he’s become a full time starter that he failed to reach that 200 mark due to back issues. It was also the first time his ERA has gone above a 4 since 2006 and it was his worst WHIP total since 2004. He also experienced a drop in velocity on his fastball, but one can only speculate if this is due to the wear and tear of all the innings he’s amassed over the years, his age or his bad back.
Haren currently has an ERA of 6.29 and a FIP of 5.45 and an XFIP of 4.48 so a correction should be coming. His WHIP is 1.73 but with only 4 walks he has the same problem as McCarthy…he’s getting hit hard giving up 38 hits over the past 24 innings. His last game vs Cincinnati he managed to pitch 6 innings for the first time this year, striking out 5 and allowing only 2 runs. The game was encouraging and his fastball was back above 90, however he did have problems reaching that number with the final 5 batters. Is his back starting to loosen up, does he just need to build up his stamina, or was this just a good game in the mix of mediocre starts. Given his track record and limited health issues people should give him a pass for last year and his slow start this year, but given the back issues, age and decreased velocity precede with caution.
Haren pitches against Atlanta tonight, and he should be doing that from your bench. If he has a poor game tonight, feel free to drop him in 10 team leagues. As for 12 team leagues, it all depends on what’s available on waivers for you and how deep your bench is. You may want to find that Haren believer in your league and shop him that way for a discount. Haren could be useful this year, but I believe the Haren well all knew and loved won’t be making an appearance until maybe the second half (if ever again).

Ryan Vogelsong (73% CBS down from 85 - 65% Yahoo down from 67)
Vogelsong has had an interesting career to say the least. He was a promising rookie, failed to make it as a starter, was moved to the bullpen where he got even worse, was moved from the bullpen to Japan for 3 years, came back and spent another year in the minors. Then came 2011 and a career year with an ERA below 3, 13 wins and a K rate close to 7. He went from being a footnote to a fantasy savior for some. 2012 he took a step back but still managed an ERA below 3.5 while decreasing his BB and increasing his strikeouts. Two years in a row usually show a pattern and if he were a young man I’d say last year was a sophomore slump. Unfortunately Ryan turns 36 in July and if history has taught us anything, it’s that pitchers don’t age like fine wine. The strikeouts are still there which is a good thing, but he has also given up 7 home runs in the last 4 games which is a bad thing (3 of those were in SD). His BAA is above .300 and not in the comphy .240 range it was the past 2 years, and his LOB% is down to 65% as opposed to the 80 & 76% he enjoyed the past 2 years.
Some pitchers come over from Japan and impress their first and even second year in the league, but during those 2 years the league figures them out and it’s all down hill from there. Vogelsong may have picked up a few tricks while he was over there that helped him succeed these past 2 years, but It looks like the party is over. He may still be able to turn things around and might be a useful spot starter, but odds are with the exception of the occasional matchup, he’s not going to be of much use except unless you need some extra strikeouts. With the Dodges, Braves & Blue Jays on tap, now is not the time to gamble on him in your lineup (or on your team). He’s a drop for 10 team leagues. In 12 team leagues you might be able to find someone to take him off your hands for a discount and if the player you’re getting back is better than what you’d find on waivers…take it. If you can’t find a taker and there is no improvement in his next few starts, hit the eject button.


Other players that should not be on your team and that should be labeled “In case of emergency, break glass”
James McDonald (43% CBS – 20% Yahoo), Bud Norris (42% CBS – 12% Yahoo), Jason Vargas (29% CBS – 14% Yahoo), Dillon Gee (23% CBS – 7% Yahoo)

 

[tlance]

Nice list Jim. What do you think of my boy Teheran? I own him universally, though I am on the verge of dumping him in my $ league. Some fool just dropped Cocoa Crisp. Lucky for me I have first waiver position. SO GLAD I didn't use it on De Aza.

 

[Reverend Jim]

Nice list Jim. What do you think of my boy Teheran? I own him universally, though I am on the verge of dumping him in my $ league. Some fool just dropped Cocoa Crisp. Lucky for me I have first waiver position. SO GLAD I didn't use it on De Aza.

I'd dump him for Crisp. Teheran is like Mike Minor, great minor league numbers but can't seem to bring his game to the majors. He shows flashes of brilliance at times but until he puts it all together I don't think he's worth owning unless you play in a keeper league (and even then it's a question mark given some of the young arms that will be up in the next year). Dump him but keep an eye on him for that Mike Minor mid season breakout (or callup if he gets sent back to the minors to work things out).

 

[Reverend Jim]

Roy Oswalt just signed with the Colorado Rockies today. He's not a drop, he's a don't even pick up.

 

[Philabuster5]

Great list Jim. Heart-breaking on Parker. He really does have a near-ace arsenal. But he's a mess. I think if your team sucks and you have no hope anyway, might as well let him rot on your bench. (that's what I'm doing hahaha)
My only complaint about your list....mentioning Minor in the same sentence as Teheran Thanks, as always Jim!

 

[molsaniceman]

Great list Jim. Heart-breaking on Parker. He really does have a near-ace arsenal. But he's a mess. I think if your team sucks and you have no hope anyway, might as well let him rot on your bench. (that's what I'm doing hahaha)
My only complaint about your list....mentioning Minor in the same sentence as Teheran Thanks, as always Jim!

Can the same thing be said about Strailly or is it his age?

Teheran came up with all the hype but so far minor/medlan have been the better pitchers

 

[Reverend Jim]

Can the same thing be said about Strailly or is it his age?

Teheran came up with all the hype but so far minor/medlan have been the better pitchers

Minor & Medlen both had the hype when they were in the minors, but it took Minor 2 1/2 years to catch on and live up to his hype, and Medlen became the forgotten man when he missed 2011 due to surgery. Teheran might need a few years, but even then there is no guarantee.

Straily (just like Jarrod Parker) had a good rookie season. Straily needs a few more starts before he can be fairly evaluated. He can either turn in a few more good starts and pick up where he left off last year or he can continue to stumble and end up in the same category as Jarrod Parker. If either or both of them do nothing this year, they would both fall into the post hype sleeper category next year.

 

[boredoutofmymind]

I am high on Porcello who you did not mention. He has been having issues but his past two starts have showed some promise. I play in a dynasty league and good pitchers are very hard to come by. Also Hiram Burgos is a very interesting guy to watch also. His last two starts went down as a QS but he was not the winning pitcher in either. His first career game pitched he only went five innings but picked up the win. If he continues to stay in the rotation he could be a sleeper for those in QS leagues.

 

[Reverend Jim]

I am no longer part of the 60% ownership of Josh Beckett. I traded him in for a slightly used Dee Gordon in hopes Dee fares better this time around (damn you Hanley)

 

[Driaz]

Joe Garagiola story......can't remember the specifics and google is failing me.....but the gist of the story told by Joe talking about catchers gear.....

GM: I got a new glove for Joe!
Manager : Good trade!

 

[Chef99]

Hmmm...time to add Halladay to the list?

 

[Reverend Jim]

Hmmm...time to add Halladay to the list?

See Dan Haren.....

 

[Chef99]

Beckett is now part of my "Throw it against the wall and see if it sticks" strategy. Along with Francisco "He who shall not be named" L-----o.

 

[Reverend Jim]

Beckett is now part of my "Throw it against the wall and see if it sticks" strategy. Along with Francisco "He who shall not be named" L-----o.

 

[BigDDude]

[during a written driving test]
"Reverend Jim" Ignatowski: Pssssttt... what does the yellow light mean?
Bobby Wheeler: "Slow down."
"Reverend Jim" Ignatowski: What... does... the... yellow... light... mean?
Bobby Wheeler: "Slow down"!
"Reverend Jim" Ignatowski: Whaaaat... dooooeeees... theeeee... yeeeel-looowwww... liiiiight... meeeeaaan?

 

[Chef99]

That was, like, The Perfect Response.

 

[Reverend Jim]

This is from Fangraphs concerning Roy Halladay.

by Eno Sarris - May 7, 2013

It looks like Roy Halladay is done — at least for a while, as he is expected to hit the disabled list with a shoulder problem — but the real question is if he is Done. He’s about to turn 36 and he’s aching in the worst body part for a pitcher. Just how bad is this news?
David Murphy, writing in his High Cheese blog for philly.com, might have put the central question best in his stream-of-consciousness style reaction to the news that the Doc will have to see more doctors:

To say that Halladay is “injured” is to suggest that there is something about him that can be fixed. Since last summer I have gotten the sense that Halladay knows that whatever is wrong with his body is irreversible, and that his only option is to grit his teeth and make some changes and battle through. Shoot, it might not even be accurate to say that there is something “wrong” with his body. His body is acting quite normal for a human body its age.
​

If you knew nothing about the current news, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Halladay was just naturally aging and that he could right the ship somewhat. After all, he has the highest swinging strike rate of his career, he’s not even a mile per hour off of his fastball velocity from last year, and his ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio — though lower than it was earlier in his career (over two in Toronto) — remains unchanged from his work in 2012 (1.39 last year, 1.31 this year). It’s just that he’s averaged a walk rate under two per nine for ten years and suddenly he’s walking a batter every two innings.

But that last thing is really strange. Of course, it takes a half a year for walk rate to stabilize for pitchers, but watching the Doc flail in the zone is novel. And the walk rate peripherals are no kinder to him. He’s never had a first-strike rate under 60% (that’s usually where the league average sits), and now he’s in danger of falling below 50% in that category. Batters aren’t reaching on pitches, either, so they’re not helping by turning balls into strikes for him.

We could look into his cutter usage (it’s down) and try to see which pitch is failing him. Or try to dissect his heatmaps. It certainly doesn’t look like he’s got no more usefulness left if you’re just looking at his stats.
But the mere fact of his age (35+) and going on the disabled list for a shoulder injury, that mere fact is a harbinger of doom. Players over the age of 35 that went on the DL for any sort of shoulder injury only averaged 59 innings over the course of the rest of their career. So if Roy Halladay pitches 60 innings next year, he’ll be ahead of the game.

There are worse ways to slice the numbers. Of the 62 old pitchers that have gone on the DL for a shoulder injury since 2002, 32 never pitched another inning. 44 of them never managed 50 innings over the rest of their careers. A grand total of six starting pitchers managed more than 100 innings — John Smoltz (106), Pedro Martinez (153.2), Kenny Rogers (173.2), John Burkett (181.2), Tim Wakefield (424.1), and Orlando Hernandez (438.1).

In other words, you’re banking on Roy Halladay to be Orlando Hernandez from here on out if you think he’s even got a full season left in his arm after this year. And Orlando Hernandez himself wasn’t that fantasy relevant for most of that time.

If you’re still looking for good news… let’s look at this by age. 35-year-olds had better outcomes: Only five of the 15 never pitched again. Another five never managed 50 innings. But two of the best outcomes on the list — Tom Gordon and Orlando Hernandez — first felt shoulder tweaks at 35. And 36 is okay, although already worse. 11 of 17 never pitched again, another two didn’t manage five innings, and Elmer Dessens, Pedro Martinez, Brian Shouse and Trevor Hoffman are the happy stories.

Still. When the last two years of the careers of Elmer Dessens and Pedro Martinez are your good outcomes, you aren’t in a good place.
If you have space on your DL, by all means carry the doctor. But if you need every inch of your roster, you may want to consider dropping him, especially in keeper leagues where you don’t need 59 more innings next season.

 

[BigDDude]

There was some question on him being done, or, at least no longer being the Roy Halladay we knew?

 

[TREFF]

excellent break down Rev.
My personal feelings..if any pitcher, of any age, has a visit with either Yokam or Andrews, and your league is not a keeper or dynasty, then you may as well cut bait. The older the pitcher, the quicker the cut.