What's Fair

[msgkings322]

The only downside to Sabean not making those contract decisions is the initial pain when we lose out on much-needed FAs or - more painful - when we eventually lose one of our own to a big-spending team.

I guess this all boils down to the fact that I wish no one would give out stupid contracts because I don't trust Sabean to be able to build a championship team based on second-tier FAs. As long as he resorts to 3-year and 4-year deals, that's what the Giants are going to get.

But that's exactly what he did in 2010, built a champion with homegrown talent and a couple of second tier FAs (Huff, Franchez, Rowand). The first tier long-contract FA we did have was, shall we say, not essential to our success.

 

[SF11704]

I think that either type of an offer represents a gamble of sorts. When you put out a 3-4year offer you are gambling that at the end of the 4 years you don't have a class 1 all star that you can't resign because of the money and other offers. I can live with this. It means that you really got your moneys worth for the 3-4 years he was under contract. Then there are the 7-10 year deals being throw to the table. To me these are the type that can destroy a team unless you have unlimited cash resources. Let's say that Albert starts declining quite a bit after 6 years of his contract. What do you do with 4 more years at 25M. No one is going to pick that up! Sort of like what happened with Zito. I think those players that produce through a long term contract are usually the exception. IMHO I'd go with a 4 year offer and take my chances after that.

 

[msgkings322]

I think that either type of an offer represents a gamble of sorts. When you put out a 3-4year offer you are gambling that at the end of the 4 years you don't have a class 1 all star that you can't resign because of the money and other offers. I can live with this. It means that you really got your moneys worth for the 3-4 years he was under contract. Then there are the 7-10 year deals being throw to the table. To me these are the type that can destroy a team unless you have unlimited cash resources. Let's say that Albert starts declining quite a bit after 6 years of his contract. What do you do with 4 more years at 25M. No one is going to pick that up! Sort of like what happened with Zito. I think those players that produce through a long term contract are usually the exception. IMHO I'd go with a 4 year offer and take my chances after that.

Precisely. What you and Cam are basically illustrating here is how we're not one of the crazy spending teams so we basically can't do the crazy contracts. That's the team we've chosen, it's what we have to deal with. At least we're not the A's.

 

[CameronFrye]

But that's exactly what he did in 2010, built a champion with homegrown talent and a couple of second tier FAs (Huff, Franchez, Rowand). The first tier long-contract FA we did have was, shall we say, not essential to our success.

Freddie Sanchez was acquired via trade. His subsequent contracts have given him exactly $0 in raises, making him an aberration in the baseball world. Huff was a nice pickup - the first time. The second contract and Rowand's deal are exactly the kinds of overpayments that I am afraid Sabean will continue to make. And there are others. DuhRosa. Renteria. We could go on and on. Bottom line is that Sabean overpays constantly for below-average talent a lot more often than he hits a home run in FA.

 

[msgkings322]

Freddie Sanchez was acquired via trade. His subsequent contracts have given him exactly $0 in raises, making him an aberration in the baseball world. Huff was a nice pickup - the first time. The second contract and Rowand's deal are exactly the kinds of overpayments that I am afraid Sabean will continue to make. And there are others. DuhRosa. Renteria. We could go on and on. Bottom line is that Sabean overpays constantly for below-average talent a lot more often than he hits a home run in FA.

We know, you think Sabean sucks. Since in my opinion there's a ton more luck than skill involved in GMing, and that furthermore our criticisms come from a place with 100x less information about what actually happens in all the wheeling and dealing, I respectfully disagree. Most of MLB would agree with me too, he'd get a job lightning quick if he left SF.

Talk to the ring. Sabean rules.

 

[CameronFrye]

We know, you think Sabean sucks. Since in my opinion there's a ton more luck than skill involved in GMing, and that furthermore our criticisms come from a place with 100x less information about what actually happens in all the wheeling and dealing, I respectfully disagree. Most of MLB would agree with me too, he'd get a job lightning quick if he left SF.

Talk to the ring. Sabean rules.

I never said Sabean sucks. I just do not believe that he is one of the best GMs in the business. In an era where every dollar counts, Sabean continues to disregard statistical evidence in making his signings. It's frustrating.

 

[tzill]

The only downside to Sabean not making those contract decisions is the initial pain when we lose out on much-needed FAs or - more painful - when we eventually lose one of our own to a big-spending team.

I guess this all boils down to the fact that I wish no one would give out stupid contracts because I don't trust Sabean to be able to build a championship team based on second-tier FAs. As long as he resorts to 3-year and 4-year deals, that's what the Giants are going to get.

I always look at an overspend by another org as a win for the Giants; it's money they can't otherwise use on scouting, dev, etc. I think the gameplan is pretty clear: develop from within and don't overspend on FAs. If/when our own players insist on 7 year deals, I trust SabeySabes to trade them for value.

 

[tzill]

Freddie Sanchez was acquired via trade. His subsequent contracts have given him exactly $0 in raises, making him an aberration in the baseball world. Huff was a nice pickup - the first time. The second contract and Rowand's deal are exactly the kinds of overpayments that I am afraid Sabean will continue to make. And there are others. DuhRosa. Renteria. We could go on and on. Bottom line is that Sabean overpays constantly for below-average talent a lot more often than he hits a home run in FA.

That may be true, but RoRo aside (and Zeets wasn't his deal), the downside risk isn't great as he sticks to short term contracts. Clearly, the plan is to spend money on scouting and development instead of big ticket FAs.

 

[tzill]

I never said Sabean sucks. I just do not believe that he is one of the best GMs in the business. In an era where every dollar counts, Sabean continues to disregard statistical evidence in making his signings. It's frustrating.

I think there's some validity in that viewpoint...but I also think SabeySabes KNOWS he's not the best FA evaluator and therefore minimizes his shortcomings by limiting himself to short contracts. His strength is developing from within (Posey, Pablo, Nate, Belt, Timmy, Bum, Cain, Weez, Romo) so he leans to that. I agree that his FA evaluations are more "gut" than stats and that's a definite weakness. Mostly, it ends up with Tejadas and DeRosas but there is the occasional Uribe and Vogelsong. He doesn't invest a lot in that market.

 

[Robotech]

Timmy's new deal seems like a great one for the Giants. The Giants don't have to commit Zito-type money and duration and they'll get two more seasons to evaluate Lincecum's long term prospects.

I understand Lincecum's thinking that he will get huge offers after the 2013 season, but man he is risking millions of dollars here. If he underperforms or gets injured, those dreams of a 7 or 8 year contract at 20 million or more dollars are up in smoke.

 

[SFGRTB]

Timmy's new deal seems like a great one for the Giants. The Giants don't have to commit Zito-type money and duration and they'll get two more seasons to evaluate Lincecum's long term prospects.

I understand Lincecum's thinking that he will get huge offers after the 2013 season, but man he is risking millions of dollars here. If he underperforms or gets injured, those dreams of a 7 or 8 year contract at 20 million or more dollars are up in smoke.

Would that really be a problem for him :charlie:

 

[ColinCoby]

Would that really be a problem for him :charlie:

LOL