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1. Resist the urge to franchise Kirk Cousins. Trading for Alex Smith should have brought an end to the Cousins era in Washington, and while you can understand the organizational desire to get something back for their franchise quarterback, that ship sailed a year ago. We don't yet know the specifics of Smith's contract extension, but it's safe to assume that Washington's new quarterback will have a cap hit in excess of $15 million.
Washington currently has $36.2 million in cap room, and franchising Cousins for a third time would eat up $34.5 million of that space. Owner Daniel Snyder & Co. can't trade Cousins unless he signs the franchise tag, which he'll only do for a team of his choosing. Why would Cousins want Washington to narrow his options, and why would he want his new team to give up valuable draft picks as a thank-you to the franchise that is moving on from him?
Let's say Cousins wants to go to the Broncos. General manager Bruce Allen might very well go to Denver and threaten to franchise Cousins in the hopes of extracting a draft pick, but he has zero leverage. Cousins won't sign the tag, and Washington doesn't want to be stuck with two quarterbacks making a combined $50 million. Denver will happily wait for Cousins to eventually hit the market, which will happen after Washington releases Cousins. It's a desperate bluff from Washington.
Cousins is a sunk cost at this point. Washington can get a third-round compensatory selection in the 2019 draft when Cousins signs elsewhere, but the comp pick isn't guaranteed. Washington can nullify the selection by investing in free agency, either by going after a top-tier talent or a handful of cheaper players. The latter strategy will prevent the Bills from picking up a compensatory pick for Stephon Gilmore this year.
Obviously, compensatory picks can be valuable, and free agency can often be a fool's errand, especially for Snyder. What I don't like is the idea of sitting out free agency and ensuring a compensatory pick just so Washington can sit there and say it got something back for Cousins. That's a PR move, not a football decision. Those third-round compensatory picks also haven't delivered many stars in recent years. Here are the players drafted with third-round comp selections over the past 10 drafts:
Zach Brown and Spencer Long. Washington can start by bringing back two contributors. Brown was an astute low-cost signing last year when his market never developed after a breakout season in Buffalo. While inside linebackers rarely break the bank, Brown repeated his level of play with an excellent debut season in Washington. He's not in line for an enormous contract, but Brown should get more than the four-year, $24 million pact A.J. Klein signed with New Orleans last offseason.
Re-signing Long might depend on whether he thinks he can get an offer in excess of $8 million per year on what is going to be a very thin market for offensive linemen. Long started his Washington career as a guard before moving to center, but with Shawn Lauvao also a free agent, coach Jay Gruden would probably be slotting Long back at left guard in 2018. A reunion would make sense for both parties.
Bashaud Breeland is Washington's most notable other free agent, but it's difficult to imagine Allen committing nearly $14 million in cash to Josh Normanin 2018 and then throwing another $10 million per year Breeland's way. Having traded away Kendall Fuller in the Smith deal, it wouldn't shock me to see Washington go after Patrick Robinson at a price range closer to $7 million per year to give them a slot corner while drafting someone to develop on the outside.
3. Pick up Brandon Scherff's fifth-year option. Washington will be giving its star guard a contract extension next offseason.
4. Work on an extension for Preston Smith. Quietly, Greg Manusky's defense was fourth in the league in adjusted sack rate, taking down opposing quarterbacks on 8.0 percent of their dropbacks. Ryan Kerrigan was at the heart of that pressure, but Smith racked up eight sacks of his own to go along with a team-high 21 knockdowns. He now has 20.5 sacks through three seasons, and Washington can't append a fifth-year option to his rookie deal because he's a second-round pick.
Smith will be a free agent after the 2018 season, so now would be the time to lock him up. It's not going to be cheap -- a Smith extension would top $10 million per year -- but you would forgive Washington fans if they don't want to hear about the possibility of slapping Smith with the franchise tag next season.
5. Be selective with free agency investments. If Washington loses Breeland and Cousins in free agency, it should be able to recoup at least the third-round pick while signing one -- and maybe only one -- impact free-agent. That might be the aforementioned Patrick Robinson or another cornerback, but Washington shouldn't be trying to plug four or five roster spots with free agents.
I've suggested in the past that it could be the team that pays Le'Veon Bell $15 million per year, in part to give its fans something to focus their attention on after losing Cousins, but I suspect Pittsburgh will franchise its star running back. Maybe Washington will go for a wide receiver like Allen Robinson or Sammy Watkins to load up on weapons for Smith. Washington can also sign players who were released by their current teams without affecting the compensatory formula, so possible cap casualties like Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray could figure in here.
that is a pretty good start
Washington currently has $36.2 million in cap room, and franchising Cousins for a third time would eat up $34.5 million of that space. Owner Daniel Snyder & Co. can't trade Cousins unless he signs the franchise tag, which he'll only do for a team of his choosing. Why would Cousins want Washington to narrow his options, and why would he want his new team to give up valuable draft picks as a thank-you to the franchise that is moving on from him?
Let's say Cousins wants to go to the Broncos. General manager Bruce Allen might very well go to Denver and threaten to franchise Cousins in the hopes of extracting a draft pick, but he has zero leverage. Cousins won't sign the tag, and Washington doesn't want to be stuck with two quarterbacks making a combined $50 million. Denver will happily wait for Cousins to eventually hit the market, which will happen after Washington releases Cousins. It's a desperate bluff from Washington.
Cousins is a sunk cost at this point. Washington can get a third-round compensatory selection in the 2019 draft when Cousins signs elsewhere, but the comp pick isn't guaranteed. Washington can nullify the selection by investing in free agency, either by going after a top-tier talent or a handful of cheaper players. The latter strategy will prevent the Bills from picking up a compensatory pick for Stephon Gilmore this year.
Obviously, compensatory picks can be valuable, and free agency can often be a fool's errand, especially for Snyder. What I don't like is the idea of sitting out free agency and ensuring a compensatory pick just so Washington can sit there and say it got something back for Cousins. That's a PR move, not a football decision. Those third-round compensatory picks also haven't delivered many stars in recent years. Here are the players drafted with third-round comp selections over the past 10 drafts:
- 2017: Cordrea Tankersley, Chad Williams, Rasul Douglas, Jonnu Smith, Brendan Langley, Nazair Jones, Trey Hendrickson, C.J. Beathard, James Conner, Amara Darboh, Kendell Beckwith
- 2016: Graham Glasgow, Vincent Valentine, Rees Odhiambo, Justin Simmons
- 2015: Geneo Grissom, Steven Nelson, Paul Dawson
- 2014: Dri Archer, Richard Rodgers, Crockett Gillmore, Brandon Thomas
- 2013: Sam Montgomery, Knile Davis, Zaviar Gooden
- 2012: Tony Bergstrom
- 2011: Sione Fua
- 2010: Brandon Ghee, Rennie Curran, Mike Johnson
- 2009: Tyrone McKenzie, Chase Coffman, Juaquin Iglesias, Travis Beckum
- 2008: Chad Rinehart, Andre Caldwell, Thomas DeCoud, Oniel Cousins
Zach Brown and Spencer Long. Washington can start by bringing back two contributors. Brown was an astute low-cost signing last year when his market never developed after a breakout season in Buffalo. While inside linebackers rarely break the bank, Brown repeated his level of play with an excellent debut season in Washington. He's not in line for an enormous contract, but Brown should get more than the four-year, $24 million pact A.J. Klein signed with New Orleans last offseason.
Re-signing Long might depend on whether he thinks he can get an offer in excess of $8 million per year on what is going to be a very thin market for offensive linemen. Long started his Washington career as a guard before moving to center, but with Shawn Lauvao also a free agent, coach Jay Gruden would probably be slotting Long back at left guard in 2018. A reunion would make sense for both parties.
Bashaud Breeland is Washington's most notable other free agent, but it's difficult to imagine Allen committing nearly $14 million in cash to Josh Normanin 2018 and then throwing another $10 million per year Breeland's way. Having traded away Kendall Fuller in the Smith deal, it wouldn't shock me to see Washington go after Patrick Robinson at a price range closer to $7 million per year to give them a slot corner while drafting someone to develop on the outside.
3. Pick up Brandon Scherff's fifth-year option. Washington will be giving its star guard a contract extension next offseason.
4. Work on an extension for Preston Smith. Quietly, Greg Manusky's defense was fourth in the league in adjusted sack rate, taking down opposing quarterbacks on 8.0 percent of their dropbacks. Ryan Kerrigan was at the heart of that pressure, but Smith racked up eight sacks of his own to go along with a team-high 21 knockdowns. He now has 20.5 sacks through three seasons, and Washington can't append a fifth-year option to his rookie deal because he's a second-round pick.
Smith will be a free agent after the 2018 season, so now would be the time to lock him up. It's not going to be cheap -- a Smith extension would top $10 million per year -- but you would forgive Washington fans if they don't want to hear about the possibility of slapping Smith with the franchise tag next season.
5. Be selective with free agency investments. If Washington loses Breeland and Cousins in free agency, it should be able to recoup at least the third-round pick while signing one -- and maybe only one -- impact free-agent. That might be the aforementioned Patrick Robinson or another cornerback, but Washington shouldn't be trying to plug four or five roster spots with free agents.
I've suggested in the past that it could be the team that pays Le'Veon Bell $15 million per year, in part to give its fans something to focus their attention on after losing Cousins, but I suspect Pittsburgh will franchise its star running back. Maybe Washington will go for a wide receiver like Allen Robinson or Sammy Watkins to load up on weapons for Smith. Washington can also sign players who were released by their current teams without affecting the compensatory formula, so possible cap casualties like Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray could figure in here.
that is a pretty good start
