What is Jon Lester worth?

[steveringo]

Boston's Lester is in the final year of a team-friendly, back-loaded extension he signed in 2009. He is scheduled to make $13m this year. Both sides have indicated a desire for another extension (obviously they wont announce a deal until after the season starts).

He just turned 30 last week. From 08 to 11, he had a 135 ERA+. He had a terrible 2012 (as did the entire staff) and a slight rebound last year and a fantastic post season. Since beating cancer, he's been relatively durable...

Given the latest starter contracts being signed, what would you give to Lester?

 

[$500 Million]

7 years/155M

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Jon Lester » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball


Jon Lester.


Oliver believes Lester puts up 16.1 WAR over the next five years ( I have a bit of a hard time seeing that). Lester's RA9 projected WAR is 11.8.


Considering 1 WAR is theoretically much closer to 6 million than 5 now with the new national T.V contracts, I expect plenty of money to be thrown at Lester regardless. I am guessing he gets something like 18M AAV for 4 years + mutual option.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Boston's Lester is in the final year of a team-friendly, back-loaded extension he signed in 2009. He is scheduled to make $13m this year. Both sides have indicated a desire for another extension (obviously they wont announce a deal until after the season starts).

He just turned 30 last week. From 08 to 11, he had a 135 ERA+. He had a terrible 2012 (as did the entire staff) and a slight rebound last year and a fantastic post season. Since beating cancer, he's been relatively durable...

Given the latest starter contracts being signed, what would you give to Lester?

I would guess a 5-10% premium over what Greinke got.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

I'm gonna say at least 17-19M a season, likely a 5/6-year deal.

 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, something in the Greinke area although maybe not quite as much but that's the ballpark. He'd be 2 years older than Greinke so that'll affect it a bit but 6/145ish if he signs an extension now. If he makes FA after a solid year, he'll make more. (And if he has another 2012 season, he'll make far less).

 

[powerchord86]

 

[steveringo]

Great replies... I honestly can't see him getting Grienke money unless he takes less years (which is actually something Boston is suddenly very fond of). If he want $24 or $25m, he'll have to settle for 4 years.

I also cannot see Boston giving him seven year.

I'm guessing he'll get $20-$21 for five years - with numerous performance incentives - and options for additional years...

 

[redseat]

Great replies... I honestly can't see him getting Grienke money unless he takes less years (which is actually something Boston is suddenly very fond of). If he want $24 or $25m, he'll have to settle for 4 years.

I also cannot see Boston giving him seven year.

I'm guessing he'll get $20-$21 for five years - with numerous performance incentives - and options for additional years...

I don't think we will ever see the Red Sox do a 7+ year deal ever again.

 

[redseat]

Hit reply too quickly...

4-5 years $20-22 million/year

 

[broncosmitty]

Im interested in Brahmsians opinion on this.

 

[broncosmitty]

4years-85mil or 5-105 seems about right IMO.

 

[navamind]

About tree fiddy

 

[steveringo]

I don't think we will ever see the Red Sox do a 7+ year deal ever again.

If the value is right and the player is right, they'll certainly consider it. Look at Bogaerts. If he sticks with the majors and is good as they expect, he'll become a free agent at a very early age. It would behoove Boston to lock him up long term before his arbitration and into his free agency years at the market value of that time.... (a la Pedroia who just signed an eight year extension)....

 

[redseat]

If the value is right and the player is right, they'll certainly consider it. Look at Bogaerts. If he sticks with the majors and is good as they expect, he'll become a free agent at a very early age. It would behoove Boston to lock him up long term before his arbitration and into his free agency years at the market value of that time.... (a la Pedroia who just signed an eight year extension)....

Possibly but I don't think they really want to get that far. But IF Bogaerts is as good as we think he is then he most likely would be the player they would spend the money and years on.

 

[anotheridiot]

I dont know how long they will go, I know they took care of the cancer, but will a team give him 6 or 7 years guaranteed?

 

[LogicMan]

Proven vet with post season pedigree guys. Sox probably get into the dance 3 of the next 5 years. You would want Lester as such. Its 5 years, the amount is 20ish/per.

Agree that Bogey needs to get signed.

BTW, Tanaka, a guys like Dice K, same frame, same size, not MLB proven is rumored to get $120M? Thats all Lester camp needs to know.

Yu Darvish , super tall 1/2 iranian has everyone thinking every Japanese pitcher is like him vs the others. Too funny

 

[Tigertowner68]

Tough call. He's getting a lot of mileage on him. He showed in most of 2013 and definitely in the postseason that he can be generally quite effective. But I would definitely load the contract with incentives.

 

[$500 Million]

Lester says he not only expects he will have to take a discount to stay, he's willing to do so.


So pencil in Lester at 5 years, $80 million for the honor and privilege to play for the Red Sox.

 

[BigDDude]

Jon Lester indicated Thursday that he could be willing to take a discount to stay with the Red Sox.

"I understand that to stay here, you're not going to get a free-agent deal," explained Lester. "You're not going to do it. You can't. It's not possible. You're bidding against one team. I understand you're going to take a discount to stay. Do I want to do that? Absolutely. But just like they want it to be fair for them, I want it to be fair for me and my family." Lester has yet to talk with Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington about an extension, but he's optimistic that something could get done during spring training. The 30-year-old is currently due to hit free agency next offseason