Vegas ranks NFL teams after draft - ESPN Insider

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Part 1 of 3

NFL Vegas Rankings following the 2015 NFL draft -- ESPN Chalk
By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS -- Three months ago, the Seattle Seahawks came up just short of winning back-to-back Super Bowls, and they were installed as the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings for the 2015 season.

There has been a lot of player movement around the league between trades and free agency, but after we checked in on the teams following last weekend's draft, the Seahawks are still the top team in the combined ratings from our panel of ESPN Chalk handicappers -- Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley.

A lot of usual faces are also near the top of the rankings, with the defending champion New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts, but it's in the next tier of teams that you might find some surprises.

Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England and San Francisco are typically given a full field goal, while Denver and New Orleans are closer to 3.5. Seattle is given the biggest home-field advantage in the league (about 4 points). Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.

Below is a look at the power ratings for all 32 NFL teams, along with Week 1 games where there appears to be value in the current lines as of early May.

(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. I'll post my thoughts next week on Week 1 and the NFL games of the year.)

NFL Vegas Rankings
1. Seattle Seahawks (Power rating: 28)

The Seahawks have kept most of their championship-caliber team intact. And they add tight end Jimmy Graham from New Orleans.
Previous rating: 28


2. Green Bay Packers (27)

The Packers' biggest free-agent signings were Bryan Bulaga and Randall Cobb, as they retained those key starters and other parts of their solid team. They lost some defensive backs but addressed that in the draft.
Previous rating: 27

3. New England Patriots (26.5)

The defense has lost Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Vince Wilfork, so we have dropped the Pats a full point from their Super Sunday team, but we're sure Bill Belichick will keep his team from a Super Bowl hangover.
Previous rating: 27.5

4. Denver Broncos (25)

How many years does Peyton Manning have left? If he struggles late, will he again use the Manny "I was hurt" Pacquiao defense? Speaking of defense, Shane Ray should help on that side of the ball.
Previous rating: 25.5

5. Indianapolis Colts (24.5)

The Colts added names in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson to help Andrew Luck, but it's the less-famous additions of Todd Herremans, Kendall Langford and Trent Cole that are more helpful in making this a more complete team.
Previous rating: 23.5

6. Dallas Cowboys (24)

We had to downgrade the Cowboys at least a little for the loss of DeMarco Murray, but with that offensive line, if Darren McFadden or someone else fills the void, Dallas should be right in the mix.
Previous rating: 25

7 (tie). Baltimore Ravens (23)

Baltimore received praise for drafting Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams. The Ravens were more active in free agency, though lacking in marquee acquisitions. We'll see how they all come together.
Previous rating: 23

7 (tie). Philadelphia Eagles (23)

It was a wild offseason in Philly, even without the rumors of changes that were supposed to happen (but didn't). But when all the feathers settled, we have Sam Bradford/DeMarco Murray replacing Nick Foles/LeSean McCoy, and Kiko Alonso added on defense, making the Eagles one point better.
Previous rating: 22

7 (tie). Miami Dolphins (23)

Ndamukong Suh immediately makes the defense better, but the front office also brought in a lot more talent by trading for Kenny Stills from New Orleans, signing free agents Greg Jennings and Cameron Jordan and then drafting Jay Ajayi from Boise State. We bumped up the Dolphins three whole points.
Previous rating: 20

10 (tie). Cincinnati Bengals (22.5)

The Bengals look pretty much like the same team that keeps excelling in the regular season and then makes an early playoff exit. They do get Michael Johnson back on defense after losing him to free agency last year.
Previous rating: 22.5

10 (tie). Arizona Cardinals (22.5)

The biggest improvement comes in the return of quarterback Carson Palmer from injury. The Cardinals also have to overcome losing defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.
Previous rating: 21

 

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Part 2 of 3

12 (tie). Pittsburgh Steelers (22)

The Steelers return most of their same team, the biggest offseason news being the contract extension given to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers will start the season with a slightly lower power rating because Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first three games.
Previous rating: 22

12 (tie). Kansas City Chiefs (22)

Jeremy Maclin helps the wide receiver corps, and Tyvon Branch helps the secondary, though we'll see if first-rounder Marcus Peters makes it even better. Coach Andy Reid looks like he's putting together another solid team.
Previous rating: 21

14 (tie). Detroit Lions (21.5)

The loss of Suh is huge, and they also lost Nick Fairley. The offense, which has been inconsistent even with the spectacular play of Calvin Johnson, will have to pick up more of the slack.
Previous rating: 23

14 (tie). Buffalo Bills (21.5)

There's a lot of excitement in Buffalo with Rex Ryan taking over as coach and also with LeSean McCoy and Matt Cassel coming to town -- well, at least they seem excited about their new quarterback.
Previous rating: 21.5

14 (tie). Houston Texans (21.5)

This is still a team searching for its identity at quarterback, and that's not a good position to be in today's NFL. Still, they add inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney to an already solid defense and look stronger overall.
Previous rating: 19.5

17 (tie). New Orleans Saints (21)

The blockbuster news this offseason was the trade of Jimmy Graham to Seattle, but at least the Saints got center Max Unger in the deal, and then they really improved the defense with Brandon Browner, Dannell Ellerbe and Anthony Spencer.
Previous rating: 19.5

17 (tie). St. Louis Rams (21)

Everyone loves the drafting of Todd Gurley to give the Rams a home run threat at running back. And they're happy to move on from the Sam Bradford era with Nick Foles. We'll see if the Rams can be more consistent overall instead of knocking off elite teams one week but then playing down to the lesser competition the next.
Previous rating: 19.5

19. San Diego Chargers (20.5)

The Philip Rivers saga has been a major distraction this offseason. The drafting of Melvin Gordon fills the hole left by Ryan Mathews' departure, but questions remain about the strength of the offensive line that Rivers and Gordon need.
Previous rating: 20.5

20 (tie). Carolina Panthers (20)

As usual, Carolina wasn't one of the most active teams in free agency, but they also didn't do too much to help themselves in the draft, so we dropped them a point and a half.
Previous rating: 21.5

20 (tie). Atlanta Falcons (20)

The Falcons aren't worried about putting up points with Matt Ryan and his receiving corps, so new coach Dan Quinn (the former Seattle defensive coordinator) picked up pass-rusher Adrian Clayborn in free agency, plus linebackers Brooks Reed and O'Brien Schofield before also looking at defense during the draft. We'll see if the stop unit can get a few stops
Previous rating: 19.5

20 (tie). New York Giants (20)

Coach Tom Coughlin has brought back defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to help with that side of the ball. The offense might just need to sit around and wait for Odell Beckham Jr. to make circus catches.
Previous rating: 19

 

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Part 3 of 3

23 (tie). San Francisco 49ers (19)

The 49ers have gone from one of the top-rated teams to below average in a short time. Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree left via free agency and Patrick Willis retired, so new coach Jim Tomsula had a lot of holes to fill in the draft -- and still has a lot of holes.
Previous rating: 20

23 (tie). New York Jets (19)

The Todd Bowles era begins with a lot of enthusiasm and the return of defensive backs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Brandon Marshall also arrives as the next wide receiver savior, but the key is how quarterback Geno Smith develops.
Previous rating: 17

25. Minnesota Vikings (18.5)

QB Teddy Bridgewater had a promising rookie season, but Minnesota is still trying to figure out what to do with Adrian Peterson.
Previous rating: 18.5

26. Chicago Bears (18)

The Bears fired Marc Trestman and replaced him with John Fox, who should help that neglected defensive side of the ball. The Bears still have a lot of weapons with Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery, and added first-round receiver Kevin White from West Virginia.
Previous rating: 16.5

27. Cleveland Browns (17)

Wow. And we thought it was a soap opera last season with rookie Johnny Manziel taking on Brian Hoyer for the quarterback job. Now, a year later, Hoyer is gone to Houston, Johnny Football is Johnny Rehab, and Josh McCown has arrived to start in the interim. This wouldn't be so bad if the Browns had improved the rest of the team.
Previous rating: 17

28 (tie). Oakland Raiders (16)

Derek Carr had a solid rookie season and now gets receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree added to his weapons. Adding nose tackle Dan Williams helps on defense, though it they could use more reinforcements. Still, the Raiders might not challenge for the No. 1 pick in 2016.
Previous rating: 15.5

28 (tie). Washington Redskins (16)

Brandon Scherff looks like he was made in Hog Heaven, and Alfred Morris was probably as happy as Robert Griffin III to see that pick. Still, the Redskins still have to improve their defense.
Previous rating: 15

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (15)

Blake Bortles now has a top tight end in Julius Thomas (though we'll see how Thomas' numbers compare with Bortles throwing him the ball instead of Manning), and T.J. Yeldon from Alabama could be the top running threat. Meanwhile, coach Gus Bradley continues to work on his defense.
Previous rating: 14

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14.5)

It's all about No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston and how he fares, as he's expected to be thrown right into the fire. He does have some nice, big targets with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. New defenders Henry Melton, Bruce Carter and Sterling Moore help on the defensive side.
Previous rating: 13.5

32. Tennessee Titans (14)

After all the speculation, Tennessee kept the No. 2 pick and went with Marcus Mariota. But just like Tampa, teams that get the top picks usually have a lot of other problems to overcome in the short term.
Previous rating: 13

 

[TDs3nOut]

Kind of surprising to me that the Broncos are fourth on the list. Lots of questions in Denver, including Manning's health and how suited he is to running Kubiak's offense.

 

[night]