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Here is the thread I made for the RBs (in the CFB board) - Undervalue/Overvalue RB Prospects - ESPN Insider | SportsHoopla.com Sports Forums
Here is the site for the WRs - Fantasy football -- Undervalued, overvalued WRs of the 2015 NFL draft class - Fantasy Football - ESPN
By Jon Moore
With the NFL combine in our rearview mirror, it's time to try to make sense of the results. For most, the 40-yard dash is the main attraction, but what about the other drills? Let's dig into the data to see if we can uncover any undervalued players from the wide receiver group, or identify any red flags among the top prospects.
Before we get into the specifics, let's be clear about the importance of combine workout data; it's part of the equation, but not the entire thing. As my approach is more numbers-driven than most, I have found that there are three parts to forecasting success (specifically fantasy football success, but for overall NFL success, as well) for receivers (chart at right).
Through the paradigm of on-field production and workout performances, here are some of my system's most undervalued and overvalued wide receivers at this point in the evaluation process.
Undervalued receivers
Chris Conley, Georgia
Weight: 213 pounds
40 yard: 4.35 seconds
Vertical: 45 inches
Conley was undoubtedly the star of the combine, posting one of the five best weight-speed-vertical profiles in a decade. Never a marquee name in the college game, it was surprising to learn that Conley accounted for 25 percent of Georgia's receiving yards last year and more than .4 touchdowns per game for his career. With more athleticism and a slightly better on-field profile than one of last year's combine stars, Martavis Bryant, Conley figures to get much more attention in the next two months and I ultimately expect him to land as a boom-or-bust pick in the third or fourth round.
Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
Weight: 217 pounds
40 yard: 4.44 seconds
Vertical: 42 inches
Entering the combine as Mel Kiper's No. 7 receiver, Strong proved to be as big as advertised and tremendously athletic. Add that to his on-field profile of 35 percent of ASU's receiving yards and .7 touchdowns per game for his career, and I think Strong could challenge to be the third receiver off the board. He's athletically similar to Colts receiver Donte Moncrief, but with a better on-field profile.
Tre McBride, William & Mary
Weight: 210 pounds
40 yard: 4.41 seconds
Vertical: 38 inches
One of only three FCS receivers to earn a combine invite, McBride made the most of his opportunity, posting a weight-speed-vertical combination similar to top-60 draftees Cordarrelle Patterson and Cody Latimer. In his final season playing for William & Mary, McBride accounted for 42 percent of the Tribe's receiving yards while averaging more than .4 touchdowns per game for his career. Currently outside Mel Kiper's top 10, his profile seems worthy of being the ninth- or 10th-best receiver in the class.
Holding steady
Kevin White, West Virginia
Weight: 215 pounds
40 yard: 4.35 seconds
Vertical: 36.5 inches
Depending on your source for receiver rankings, White is either a mild riser or holding steady after his impressive combine. Posting a superb weight-speed-vertical combination in line with Michael Floyd and Miles Austin (before his string of injuries), White seems like a strong candidate to be the first receiver taken. In his final season at WVU he accounted for 35 percent of receiving yards while also scoring .7 touchdowns per game for his career.
Devante Parker, Louisville
Weight: 209 pounds
40 yard: 4.45 seconds
Vertical: 36.5 inches
Ranking as Mel Kiper's No. 3 receiver before the combine, Parker posted workout results similar to what second-round picks Jordan Matthews and Davante Adams did last year. From an on-field perspective, Parker accounted for an astronomical 51.1 percent of Louisville's receiving yards in an injury-shortened 2014 and .8 touchdowns per game for his career. Basically, he did what he was supposed to and is holding steady in the top three of this receiver class.
Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
Weight: 237 pounds
40 yard: 4.49 seconds
Vertical: 33.5 inches
In 2012, Green-Beckham was the most coveted high school receiver recruit in America. He showed promise at Missouri early in his career before getting into off-field trouble. Long compared to Calvin Johnson, Green-Beckham fell short of that level of athleticism, but still showed well, with a weight-speed-vertical combination close to Brandon Marshall's. Accounting for 25 percent of Missouri's receiving yards in 2012, Green-Beckham also averaged .4 touchdowns per game for his career. He currently ranks as my No. 6 receiver in the class, with the unrealized potential to possibly become the best in class down the line. How teams feel about him off the field figures to have more to do with where he's drafted than what he brings to the table physically.
Cause for concern
Justin Hardy, East Carolina
Weight: 192 pounds
40 yard: 4.56 seconds
Vertical: 36.5 inches
College football's all-time leader in receptions on the FBS level, Hardy has drawn praise as a fringe top-10 receiver in this class. While his athletic profile is certainly roster-worthy and his final-season market share of receiving yards was solid (31 percent), his overall projection is outside my top 15. Ultimately, there appears to be a wealth of receiving options with similar production but better athleticism.
Amari Cooper, Alabama
Weight: 211 pounds
40 yard: 4.42 seconds
Vertical: 33 inches
To be clear, Cooper's athleticism is above average, but he's not the kind of prototype athlete guys like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones or Mike Evans were when heading into the draft. Instead, Cooper is more of a DeAndre Hopkins or Hakeem Nicks type, who were worthy first-rounders but went in the 20s, instead of the top 10, where Cooper is being projected. That said, his production profile is so elite -- accounting for 44 percent of Alabama's receiving yards in 2014 and .8 touchdowns per game for his career -- that the two offset, and I project him as a top-two receiver in the class.
Here is the site for the WRs - Fantasy football -- Undervalued, overvalued WRs of the 2015 NFL draft class - Fantasy Football - ESPN
By Jon Moore
With the NFL combine in our rearview mirror, it's time to try to make sense of the results. For most, the 40-yard dash is the main attraction, but what about the other drills? Let's dig into the data to see if we can uncover any undervalued players from the wide receiver group, or identify any red flags among the top prospects.
Before we get into the specifics, let's be clear about the importance of combine workout data; it's part of the equation, but not the entire thing. As my approach is more numbers-driven than most, I have found that there are three parts to forecasting success (specifically fantasy football success, but for overall NFL success, as well) for receivers (chart at right).
Through the paradigm of on-field production and workout performances, here are some of my system's most undervalued and overvalued wide receivers at this point in the evaluation process.
Undervalued receivers
Chris Conley, Georgia
Weight: 213 pounds
40 yard: 4.35 seconds
Vertical: 45 inches
Conley was undoubtedly the star of the combine, posting one of the five best weight-speed-vertical profiles in a decade. Never a marquee name in the college game, it was surprising to learn that Conley accounted for 25 percent of Georgia's receiving yards last year and more than .4 touchdowns per game for his career. With more athleticism and a slightly better on-field profile than one of last year's combine stars, Martavis Bryant, Conley figures to get much more attention in the next two months and I ultimately expect him to land as a boom-or-bust pick in the third or fourth round.
Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
Weight: 217 pounds
40 yard: 4.44 seconds
Vertical: 42 inches
Entering the combine as Mel Kiper's No. 7 receiver, Strong proved to be as big as advertised and tremendously athletic. Add that to his on-field profile of 35 percent of ASU's receiving yards and .7 touchdowns per game for his career, and I think Strong could challenge to be the third receiver off the board. He's athletically similar to Colts receiver Donte Moncrief, but with a better on-field profile.
Tre McBride, William & Mary
Weight: 210 pounds
40 yard: 4.41 seconds
Vertical: 38 inches
One of only three FCS receivers to earn a combine invite, McBride made the most of his opportunity, posting a weight-speed-vertical combination similar to top-60 draftees Cordarrelle Patterson and Cody Latimer. In his final season playing for William & Mary, McBride accounted for 42 percent of the Tribe's receiving yards while averaging more than .4 touchdowns per game for his career. Currently outside Mel Kiper's top 10, his profile seems worthy of being the ninth- or 10th-best receiver in the class.
Holding steady
Kevin White, West Virginia
Weight: 215 pounds
40 yard: 4.35 seconds
Vertical: 36.5 inches
Depending on your source for receiver rankings, White is either a mild riser or holding steady after his impressive combine. Posting a superb weight-speed-vertical combination in line with Michael Floyd and Miles Austin (before his string of injuries), White seems like a strong candidate to be the first receiver taken. In his final season at WVU he accounted for 35 percent of receiving yards while also scoring .7 touchdowns per game for his career.
Devante Parker, Louisville
Weight: 209 pounds
40 yard: 4.45 seconds
Vertical: 36.5 inches
Ranking as Mel Kiper's No. 3 receiver before the combine, Parker posted workout results similar to what second-round picks Jordan Matthews and Davante Adams did last year. From an on-field perspective, Parker accounted for an astronomical 51.1 percent of Louisville's receiving yards in an injury-shortened 2014 and .8 touchdowns per game for his career. Basically, he did what he was supposed to and is holding steady in the top three of this receiver class.
Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
Weight: 237 pounds
40 yard: 4.49 seconds
Vertical: 33.5 inches
In 2012, Green-Beckham was the most coveted high school receiver recruit in America. He showed promise at Missouri early in his career before getting into off-field trouble. Long compared to Calvin Johnson, Green-Beckham fell short of that level of athleticism, but still showed well, with a weight-speed-vertical combination close to Brandon Marshall's. Accounting for 25 percent of Missouri's receiving yards in 2012, Green-Beckham also averaged .4 touchdowns per game for his career. He currently ranks as my No. 6 receiver in the class, with the unrealized potential to possibly become the best in class down the line. How teams feel about him off the field figures to have more to do with where he's drafted than what he brings to the table physically.
Cause for concern
Justin Hardy, East Carolina
Weight: 192 pounds
40 yard: 4.56 seconds
Vertical: 36.5 inches
College football's all-time leader in receptions on the FBS level, Hardy has drawn praise as a fringe top-10 receiver in this class. While his athletic profile is certainly roster-worthy and his final-season market share of receiving yards was solid (31 percent), his overall projection is outside my top 15. Ultimately, there appears to be a wealth of receiving options with similar production but better athleticism.
Amari Cooper, Alabama
Weight: 211 pounds
40 yard: 4.42 seconds
Vertical: 33 inches
To be clear, Cooper's athleticism is above average, but he's not the kind of prototype athlete guys like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones or Mike Evans were when heading into the draft. Instead, Cooper is more of a DeAndre Hopkins or Hakeem Nicks type, who were worthy first-rounders but went in the 20s, instead of the top 10, where Cooper is being projected. That said, his production profile is so elite -- accounting for 44 percent of Alabama's receiving yards in 2014 and .8 touchdowns per game for his career -- that the two offset, and I project him as a top-two receiver in the class.
