Trade deadline lead-up

[magnumo]

July 20: A 10-player trade between Houston and Toronto has just been announced. The trade market is officially.......... OPEN!..... (at 11 days before the deadline).

I hope the Pirates stay in "buy low" mode as well. On the other hand, if NH is pursuing a stud (either position player or pitcher), it'll be hard to accomplish such a trade without giving up at least one top prospect.

My priorities at this point are:

1. Shortstop: We need a guy who can field adequately AND who carries at least half a bat. Unfortunately, Hurdle's love for Barmes plus Barmes' 2-year contract may preclude anything useful from happening.

2. Starting pitcher: Can never have too much. If they're NOT going to audition any of the guys from Indy, a reliable major league veteran would be good, but a young stud would be better.

3. Corner OF bat: No need for explanation here. On the other hand, I would support giving Marte a shot..... while I hope for a resurgence from Tabata.

4. LOOGY: A shutdown lefty reliever would be very useful, not only for the balance of the season, but especially if the Bucs make the post-season.

I'm satisfied with our catching situation for the time being. That is, I believe it's lower in priority than the first four needs listed above.

 

[magnumo]

Rockies have traded RHP Jeremy Guthrie to the Royals for LHP Jonathan Sanchez.

In the 10-player trade between Houston and Toronto, Houston acquired closer Francisco Cordero, OF Ben Francisco, 4 minor leaguers (RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Asher Wojciechowski, LHP David Rollins, C Carlos Perez), and a PTBNL. In exchange, Toronto received 3 pitchers from Houston: Brandon Lyon, J. A. Happ, and David Carpenter.

If Huntington's going to do something, now's the time..... while his preferred targets (whoever they are) remain available.

 

[pixburgher66]

Freaking fake twitter account saying Upton deal was imminent. Got me a bit excited.

 

[stillmatic32]

Ah, my old classmate, David Carpenter headed to Toronto! I'm sure he's thrilled!

Rockies have traded RHP Jeremy Guthrie to the Royals for LHP Jonathan Sanchez.

In the 10-player trade between Houston and Toronto, Houston acquired closer Francisco Cordero, OF Ben Francisco, 4 minor leaguers (RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Asher Wojciechowski, LHP David Rollins, C Carlos Perez), and a PTBNL. In exchange, Toronto received 3 pitchers from Houston: Brandon Lyon, J. A. Happ, and David Carpenter.

If Huntington's going to do something, now's the time..... while his preferred targets (whoever they are) remain available.

 

[sychmd]

July 20: A 10-player trade between Houston and Toronto has just been announced. The trade market is officially.......... OPEN!..... (at 11 days before the deadline).

I hope the Pirates stay in "buy low" mode as well. On the other hand, if NH is pursuing a stud (either position player or pitcher), it'll be hard to accomplish such a trade without giving up at least one top prospect.

My priorities at this point are:

1. Shortstop: We need a guy who can field adequately AND who carries at least half a bat. Unfortunately, Hurdle's love for Barmes plus Barmes' 2-year contract may preclude anything useful from happening.

2. Starting pitcher: Can never have too much. If they're NOT going to audition any of the guys from Indy, a reliable major league veteran would be good, but a young stud would be better.

3. Corner OF bat: No need for explanation here. On the other hand, I would support giving Marte a shot..... while I hope for a resurgence from Tabata.

4. LOOGY: A shutdown lefty reliever would be very useful, not only for the balance of the season, but especially if the Bucs make the post-season.

I'm satisfied with our catching situation for the time being. That is, I believe it's lower in priority than the first four needs listed above.

i agree with 90%.
unless mcK projects to a + starter both defensively and offensively, i would really go after a catcher first that can give O, D, call a game and hold runners close.

i would love a SS second, but at least barmes gives us good D.

we need to see what we got in AAA pitching to see if any of them will be part of the cole, mcdonald, karstens, taillon, morton. with burnett next year as well and maybe one more after for a discount. one of those 3 has to give us 2-4 years to hold a spot for heredia and taillon.
Arms wont come cheap and will have to give up a couple arm prospects so our scouting has to be sharp.

otherwise looks spot on with how i see things.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

According to the Inside Pittsburgh Sports.com website. Pirates scouts were in Tampa tonight scouting James Shields.

There is your Stud starter right there. I would Love to have Shields in this rotation, but he is going to be pretty expensive I think.

Neal seems to be shopping in the High Rent District. So, I feel, his offers are going to have to get serious, if he expects to bring any of these guys (Shields, Justin Upton, Others?) to Pittsburgh.

Again, I would Love to see it but it will cost some good prospects.

Burgh

 

[sychmd]

According to the Inside Pittsburgh Sports.com website. Pirates scouts were in Tampa tonight scouting James Shields.

There is your Stud starter right there. I would Love to have Shields in this rotation, but he is going to be pretty expensive I think.

Neal seems to be shopping in the High Rent District. So, I feel, his offers are going to have to get serious, if he expects to bring any of these guys (Shields, Justin Upton, Others?) to Pittsburgh.

Again, I would Love to see it but it will cost some good prospects.

Burgh

good to see NH really pursuing some options.

shields - healthy and reliable. already 30. mediocre this yr
had a great year last year, but more like a low 2 or high 3 in the rotation.
risky, but if they can just give quantity at the AA and A with one AAA pitcher and avoid all our studs, that is great.
how long is he under contract for?

i am not in favor of spending any starter at AA or above for a 2 month rental.

 

[magnumo]

good to see NH really pursuing some options.

shields - healthy and reliable. already 30. mediocre this yr
had a great year last year, but more like a low 2 or high 3 in the rotation.
risky, but if they can just give quantity at the AA and A with one AAA pitcher and avoid all our studs, that is great.
how long is he under contract for?
i am not in favor of spending any starter at AA or above for a 2 month rental.

Shields is pitching this year under the first of three club option years. His contract looks like this (from Cot's):

2008 - $1 mill
2009 - $1.5 mill
2010 - $2.5 mill
2011 - $4.25 mill
2012 - $7 million club option ($2 mill buyout)
2013 - $9 million club option ($1.5 mill buyout)
2014 - $12 million club option ($1 mill buyout)

So, if the Pirates traded for Shields, the minimum obligation they would pick up is the balance of this year's salary (about $3 mill) plus the $1.5 mill buyout for 2013. If they like what they see, they can pick up one more year for $10 mill ($9 mill 2013 salary plus $1 mill buyout for 2014)..... or 2 more years for $21 mill (for both 2013 and 2014).

That's heavy duty money for a small-revenue team, either the Rays or the Bucs. That might explain a willingness on the part of the Rays to part with Shields.

 

[magnumo]

i agree with 90%.

unless mcK projects to a + starter both defensively and offensively, i would really go after a catcher first that can give O, D, call a game and hold runners close.

<snip>

My current thinking on the Pirates' catcher position:

Like you, I'd LOVE for the Pirates to have a better catcher. However.....
- You reminded me about the $3.5 mill club option we have on Barajas for 2013.
- McKenry has shown some encouraging improvement with the bat.
- Sanchez has begun to show some FAINT signs of life at Indy.
Given those factors, I put higher priority on SS, a starting pitcher, an additional bat, and even a LOOGY.

I like how Barajas and McKenry have handled the pitching staff and played defense (Sanchez has an excellent rep for those aspects, as well)..... and their 15 combined HR's have contributed to the offense.

If NH can find a better hitting SS AND a corner OF bat, that should provide enough of a boost to the offense that the Barajas-McKenry bat should play OK..... and I'm guessing the pitchers would be happy to keep the Rod-Fort tandem, as well.

At any rate, whatever NH decides to do, we can only hope that it provides an additional boost to the current magic.

 

[sychmd]

Shields is pitching this year under the first of three club option years. His contract looks like this (from Cot's):

2008 - $1 mill
2009 - $1.5 mill
2010 - $2.5 mill
2011 - $4.25 mill
2012 - $7 million club option ($2 mill buyout)
2013 - $9 million club option ($1.5 mill buyout)
2014 - $12 million club option ($1 mill buyout)

So, if the Pirates traded for Shields, the minimum obligation they would pick up is the balance of this year's salary (about $3 mill) plus the $1.5 mill buyout for 2013. If they like what they see, they can pick up one more year for $10 mill ($9 mill 2013 salary plus $1 mill buyout for 2014)..... or 2 more years for $21 mill (for both 2013 and 2014).

That's heavy duty money for a small-revenue team, either the Rays or the Bucs. That might explain a willingness on the part of the Rays to part with Shields.

thanks again. you remind me a lot of my father with your reliability and thoroughness. i will leave the other baggage out for now until you reveal more.

not sure what we will be getting, other than definite innings and good health.

as a fan who loves to examine and problem solve, the biggest gap of knowledge as an outsider is knowing
1. what our scouts think in these situations.
2. what the eval of our scouts say
3. what is the track record of predictive abilities of people they assess and draw conclusions on. obviously 98% are people we dont acquire, but would like to see how often they accurately predict performers and nonperformers.
4. how does the track record in #3 compare to industry standard.
5. how good are our scouts at evaluating our own system and predicting who is maxed just before they are maxed so we can send them in a package when others might think the player still has lots of upside.

to me, this skill set then helps me determine whether shields is worth the flyer or not, assuming the scouts say he is a GO.

hope this rambling makes sense. wish we(this board) could have a teleconference of brainstorming and present our genius findings to NH for tactical implementation. where else could he find this many skills, insights, and passions for his goal, for free, and this is what we give even without having influence. could you imagine how much more effort and brains we would put in to it if we actually had some result from our currently wasted effort.

wow, in re-reading it, seems quite narcissistic, but hey, in my mind, i am undefeated.

 

[element1286]

thanks again. you remind me a lot of my father with your reliability and thoroughness. i will leave the other baggage out for now until you reveal more.

not sure what we will be getting, other than definite innings and good health.

as a fan who loves to examine and problem solve, the biggest gap of knowledge as an outsider is knowing
1. what our scouts think in these situations.
2. what the eval of our scouts say
3. what is the track record of predictive abilities of people they assess and draw conclusions on. obviously 98% are people we dont acquire, but would like to see how often they accurately predict performers and nonperformers.
4. how does the track record in #3 compare to industry standard.
5. how good are our scouts at evaluating our own system and predicting who is maxed just before they are maxed so we can send them in a package when others might think the player still has lots of upside.

This seems a lot more important when evaluating scouting of amateur players, or to a lesser degree players in the minors.

I don't see why a player at the major league level don't need so much scouting, especially when they have been in majors as long as Shields.

 

[sychmd]

This seems a lot more important when evaluating scouting of amateur players, or to a lesser degree players in the minors.

I don't see why a player at the major league level don't need so much scouting, especially when they have been in majors as long as Shields.

the players in the majors also need scouting because we are determining whether to invest 10-50 million in somebody. usually, people getting traded are lacking in some respect, or they wouldnt be on the trading block. if they were amazing with no holes, their present team would keep them and build around them.

yes, many stats show their production, but don't tell why and whether it is remediable or not. your scouts can identify who is worth the investment based on
1. identifying the holes in their game
2. whether those holes are ameniable in some way
3. whether scouts team has the expertise, environment, disciplers to remediate the hole and allow player to excel.
based on that all important assesment, management then knows what they are getting, but more importantly, what are they projected to get and thus how much money they are willing to expend.
the other issue is opportunity costs. if we invest in shields, that limits or even takes away our opportunity to use that money to sign or trade for the other option we are pursuing.

scouting is vital in my mind. stats are only a fraction of the story.

 

[steelparrot]

The Astros just traded their closer, Myers, to the White Sox. They gonna dump every vet they have it looks like.

Now the Cubs need to get on the ball and start moving some people before we play them

 

[sychmd]

lets go after Lowrie.
29, can hit and seems to be above ave in the field also. also, a switch hitter.

astros seem to have a 23 yo SS who seems to be handling the bat, so maybe they are willing to get rid of lowrie fairly easily, relatively speaking.

that would make
6 alvarez - project 35 HR
7 lowrie - project 26 HR
8 rod/McK - project 30 HR

that is some bottom of the lineup.

after going into the season with 2 or more leadoff guys, we now have that as our weakest position in the lineup. who will step up and clain the prize of introducing the most prolific offense in all of baseball the last 50 days?
hopefully tabata returns from AAA all jacked, but relaxed and no pressure as the offense is clickiing.

 

[thecrow124]

Didn't Houston just put Lowrie on the DL? Maybe I am thinking of someone else. Regardless, I wan't no part of Lowrie anyway, since June he is hitting almost as bad as Barmes, and isn't the defensive player Barmes is.

I read tonight that the Pirates view Shane Victorino as the perfect solution to our outfield, but Philly needs to drop their asking price "significantly". What the heck am I missing on Victorino, to me he looks like a player that just passed his prime at about 100mph and is dropping quickly off of a cliff.

I am at the point now, where I don't think we necessarily have to make a trade, we have a pretty weak schedule from here on out and we have a pretty substantial lead in the WC standings from all but 2 teams that matter. If we make a trade, I would not be looking at rentals, get someone semi-young with years of control.

Shields I would be OK with, as 30 is not old for a pitcher, but the amount of innings he throws every year may be taking its toll which shows in his mediocre numbers this year.

The Justin Upton rumors seem to have stopped for everyone, except the Yankees, and I don't see the Yankees as having the prospects to pull that one off. I don't see an Upton deal getting done until the off-season.

Other than those 2, I can't think of anyone available that fits the mold of the player I am looking for. So if we can't swing a deal for either of them, I am ok just playing out the season with our current roster.

One last thing, if the Royals would listen on Wil Myers, I would offer up the farm for him. However, with him you would still be taking a risk as he has never played a major league game before.

 

[Etrius24]

with the lack of play of Tabata... A corner outfield upgrade would be very nice!

But you know what I went and looked at Butler's contract situation...And He is a guy worth giving something up for... He is locked in at a very reasonable rate for next year and 2014... 8 million per... Which is a pretty good deal for a guy that has 30 homerun power and the ability to hit .300 while drawing walks and getting on base.

So if they did trade for Butler, they would have him the rest of this year... the next two and there is an option on his contract for 2015...

So to the posters on here that adamantly are against giving up anything for a rent a player... Butler is not a rent a player... He would be here minimum 2 years and 2 months..at an affordable rate... No way they could expect to get a free agent bat in the offseason that would produce like Butler is producing for less than 8 million per year.

KC would want a decent package... Maybe Owens and Marte??? That might not get it done though...If they would consider those two and a conditional PTBNL... I would jump on it..