Top 32 tournament C Carter vs Cochrane

[obxyankeefan]

Top 32 players ranked by BRWAR(as of 6/18/15).

Catcher Bracket is:

1 J Bench 13
32 R Ferrell 1

16 T Munson 6
17 W Schang 0

8 B Dickey 3 Dickey will advance on higher seed
25 R Campanella 3

9 G Harnett 6
24 L Parrish 0

4 C Fisk 10
29 J Clements 0

13 G Tenace 1
20 J Kendall 7

5 Y Berra 7
28 R Martin 0

12 B Ewing 2 advances on seed
21 R Bresnahan 2

3 I Rodriguez 8
30 D McGuire 0

14 J Mauer 8
19 J Posada 9

6 M Piazza 11
27 V Martinez 0

11 T Simmons 11
22 D Porter 0

2 G Carter 11
31 S Lollar 0

15 E Lombardi 7
18 B Freehan 4

7 J Torre 6
26 S Burgess 2

10 M Cochrane 4
23 J Sundberg 1

1 J Bench 11
16 T Munson 0

8 B Dickey 5
9 G Harnett 2

4 C Fisk 12
20 J Kendall 0

5 Y Berra 7
12 B Ewing 0

3 I Rodriguez 8
19 J Posada 1

6 M Piazza 10
11 T Simmons 2

2 G Carter 10
15 E Lombardi 1

7 J Torre 0
10 M Cochrane 10

1 J Bench 9
8 B Dickey 0

4 C Fisk 3
5 Y Berra 10

3 I Rodriguez 10
6 M Piazza 3

2 G Carter
10 M Cochrane

1 J Bench
5 Y Berra

3 I Rodriguez

 

[obxyankeefan]

Gary Carter Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com
Beat Sherm Lollar and Ernie Lombardi 21-1

Mickey Cochrane Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com
Beat Jim Sundberg and Joe Torre 14-1

 

[calsnowskier]

OPS+ (Carter/Cochrane)
120 - 6/8
130 - 4/5
140 - 2/2
150 - 0/1

Cochrane wins a close one.

Accolades
Carter - 11 ASG, 3 GG, 5 SS, 4 top 10 MVP
Cochrane - 2 ASG, 2 MVP, 6 top 10 MVP

The ASG started in '33. Cochrane retired in '37 and still made it to 2 games. The GG and SS awards did not exist at all in his day.

I know Carter was a good defensive catcher. I have no idea about Cochranes defense.

Coming in, I assumed Carter would win this one. But I really can't defend that opinion after the analysis. Cochrane isn't winning in a walk, it is close. But I have to go with Cochrane here.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Defense- Carter(NOT CLOSE)
dWAR
Carter- Career=25.5, Best= 4.0, # of times 1 or better=9, # of times better than 0=18, # better than 2=6
Cochrane-CAreer=4.4, Best=.6, # of times 1 or better=0, # of times better than 0=12, # better than 2=0

Power- TIE
XBH%
Carter- Career= 8.1, Best=10.4, # of 499+PA seasons better than average=6, MLB average=6.6
Cochrane- Career=8.3, Best=10.4, # of 499+PA seasons better than average=6, MLB average=6.9

BB- Cochrane wins(not close)
BB%
Carter- Career=9.4, Best=12.2, # 499+PA seasons better than average=8, MLB average=8.5
Cochrane- Career=13.8, Best=19.6, #499+PA seasons better than average=5, MLB average=8.1

BA-Cochrane wins(not close)
BA%
Carter-Career= .262, Best=.294, # 499+PA seasons better than average=8, MLB average=.258
Cochrane- Career=.320, Best=.357, 499+PA seasons better than average=6, MLB average=.282

Post seasons-Carter wins(close)

Career longevity= Carter wins(nearly 3000 more PA)
positional longevity= Carter wins(600+ games more)
499+ PA seasons= Carter wins(12 to 9)

Longevity and defense make this NOT CLOSE IMO... Cochrane was amazing at getting on base, but he also played in a better offensive time... Cochrane does get the edge offensively, but because the power is so close, it is not a landslide UNLIKE the defense and longevity comparison...

So Carter wins...

 

[calsnowskier]

Defense- Carter(NOT CLOSE)
dWAR
Carter- Career=25.5, Best= 4.0, # of times 1 or better=9, # of times better than 0=18, # better than 2=6
Cochrane-CAreer=4.4, Best=.6, # of times 1 or better=0, # of times better than 0=12, # better than 2=0

Power- TIE
XBH%
Carter- Career= 8.1, Best=10.4, # of 499+PA seasons better than average=6, MLB average=6.6
Cochrane- Career=8.3, Best=10.4, # of 499+PA seasons better than average=6, MLB average=6.9

BB- Cochrane wins(not close)
BB%
Carter- Career=9.4, Best=12.2, # 499+PA seasons better than average=8, MLB average=8.5
Cochrane- Career=13.8, Best=19.6, #499+PA seasons better than average=5, MLB average=8.1

BA-Cochrane wins(not close)
BA%
Carter-Career= .262, Best=.294, # 499+PA seasons better than average=8, MLB average=.258
Cochrane- Career=.320, Best=.357, 499+PA seasons better than average=6, MLB average=.282

Post seasons-Carter wins(close)

Career longevity= Carter wins(nearly 3000 more PA)
positional longevity= Carter wins(600+ games more)
499+ PA seasons= Carter wins(12 to 9)

Longevity and defense make this NOT CLOSE IMO... Cochrane was amazing at getting on base, but he also played in a better offensive time... Cochrane does get the edge offensively, but because the power is so close, it is not a landslide UNLIKE the defense and longevity comparison...

So Carter wins...

Can you really trust any of the defensive metrics for a player from Cochrane's era?

Carter lasted longer, yes. But in his later years, Carter was a shell of himself. I have said I don't want to count "tag-on-years" against a player, but conversely, I refuse to count them FOR a player either. Cochrane retired when he was still effective. Carter floated around the league for years after he was done.

 

[calsnowskier]

Wow...

It has already been 4 years since Carters death. It seems like that was just a few months ago.

Amazing.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Can you really trust any of the defensive metrics for a player from Cochrane's era?

Carter lasted longer, yes. But in his later years, Carter was a shell of himself. I have said I don't want to count "tag-on-years" against a player, but conversely, I refuse to count them FOR a player either. Cochrane retired when he was still effective. Carter floated around the league for years after he was done.

But by disregarding Cochrane's defense you are not impressing on Carter's defense... Carter is a top 5 defensive catcher of all time... Probably 2nd best behind pudge...

 

[calsnowskier]

But by disregarding Cochrane's defense you are not impressing on Carter's defense... Carter is a top 5 defensive catcher of all time... Probably 2nd best behind pudge...

Fair. But how do we know Cochrane wasn't good/great as well?

dWAR should not even be mentioned for Cochrane because the numbers are completely pulled out of nowhere.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Fair. But how do we know Cochrane wasn't good/great as well?

dWAR should not even be mentioned for Cochrane because the numbers are completely pulled out of nowhere.

in 600 more games Carter had a .991 fielding % compared to cochrans .985...

Cochrane had a 39% CS rate vs Carters 35... But carter played in a time where players stole much more... the league average in Carters days was 32 while in Cochrane's days it was 42%...

So Cochrane was BELOW average is CS...

those are the only 2 stats I found... But it does follow the dWAR analysis...

 

[calsnowskier]

Not saying anything I haven't said before here, but...

Defense is SOOOO hard to judge without actually putting eyes on the player. Fielding Percentage and CS% can be very misleading. MAYBE Cochrane got more errors because he was able to get to more ball (maybe not). And CS stats were very incomplete during his era.

I acknowledge that Carter was likely better. I just don't trust the statistical argument that "proves" it.

Anyway, I am picking nits. I actually think this one is very close and I can't argue anyone going either way here.

 

[navamind]

Carter's one of five players with 2000+ games behind the plate. Cochrane had 1451. Carter also has about 3000 more plate appearances. Longevity is pretty important, especially at a position like catcher.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Not saying anything I haven't said before here, but...

Defense is SOOOO hard to judge without actually putting eyes on the player. Fielding Percentage and CS% can be very misleading. MAYBE Cochrane got more errors because he was able to get to more ball (maybe not). And CS stats were very incomplete during his era.

I acknowledge that Carter was likely better. I just don't trust the statistical argument that "proves" it.

Anyway, I am picking nits. I actually think this one is very close and I can't argue anyone going either way here.

I think this logic is flawed... We both have said many times that catcher is the defensive PREMIUM position... How can you disregard defense here, if all the stats given are saying that the defense is NOT close... I understand not trusting early baseball defensive metrics, but by disregarding it you are taking away Carter's entire game... This is like judging Mark McGwire by not including HRs and his power numbers just because he played in the steroid era...

Carter's strength was his defense... You can not dismiss it...

 

[calsnowskier]

Carter's one of five players with 2000+ games behind the plate. Cochrane had 1451. Carter also has about 3000 more plate appearances. Longevity is pretty important, especially at a position like catcher.

But Carter's last 5 years (approx 2000 ABs) were pretty grim.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think this logic is flawed... We both have said many times that catcher is the defensive PREMIUM position... How can you disregard defense here, if all the stats given are saying that the defense is NOT close... I understand not trusting early baseball defensive metrics, but by disregarding it you are taking away Carter's entire game... This is like judging Mark McGwire by not including HRs and his power numbers just because he played in the steroid era...

Carter's strength was his defense... You can not dismiss it...

WAS Carter at the Molina/IRod/Bench level of defense? I remember him as being good, but I dont remember him being THAT good (actual question).

 

[MilkSpiller22]

But Carter's last 5 years (approx 2000 ABs) were pretty grim.

last 6 seasons were bad, but 4 of the 6 seasons he did not reach 500PA... and only reached 300 3 times... So it is not like he played full seasons and was bad...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

WAS Carter at the Molina/IRod/Bench level of defense? I remember him as being good, but I dont remember him being THAT good (actual question).

UMM yes... look at any advanced analysis, and they all say he was better than bench...

I saw the WOWY study where carter ranks 3rd(which I don't know how trustworthy it is)... dWAR carter is well ahead of bench... Especially if you take dWAR7...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

dWAR
Carter=25.5, Best=4.0, 6 seasons 2 or better, 9 seasons 1 or better, 18 seasons better than 0
Bench=19.3, best=2.4, 3 seasons 2 or better, 12 seasons 1 or better, 14 seasons better than 0

 

[calsnowskier]

dWAR
Carter=25.5, Best=4.0, 6 seasons 2 or better, 9 seasons 1 or better, 18 seasons better than 0
Bench=19.3, best=2.4, 3 seasons 2 or better, 12 seasons 1 or better, 14 seasons better than 0

And, correct me if I am wrong, catcher was not really considered too much of a defensive position UNTIL Bench came along. So it is fair to assume that Cochrane was likely a hit-first catcher.

Cochrane had the better stick than Carter, but not by a whole lot. So if a defensive catcher had a comparable stick to an offensive catcher...

Fair enough.

I am changing my vote.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

And, correct me if I am wrong, catcher was not really considered too much of a defensive position UNTIL Bench came along. So it is fair to assume that Cochrane was likely a hit-first catcher.

Cochrane had the better stick than Carter, but not by a whole lot. So if a defensive catcher had a comparable stick to an offensive catcher...

Fair enough.

I am changing my vote.

I don't know if you are wrong, I think you are because there were catchers like Bill dickey, and Roy Camponella... Not to mention Yogi... who were all very good defensively...

I wasn't arguing for you to change... you got the right to pick whoever... I just didn't like your logic... Same way you have called me out a couple times due to my logic... Its what we do... How else are we going to get better, if we don't call eachother out occasionally...

 

[calsnowskier]

I know you werent trying to get me to change my vote. But your arguments were solid. I am not so stuck in my initial findings that they cannot be swayed by good points.

That's why these threads are NOT a waste of time.