TKO in Round.....

[TKOSpikes]

Here are my bust picks for each round.

Round 1. Peyton Manning - too many people paying for last year, but this year there's a better defense and a tougher schedule and what I think will be a better ground game.

Runner up - Jimmy Graham (for much of the same reasons and don't underestimate Brees' "tweaked oblique".


Round 2. Doug Martin - not sure why he gets the nod over so many...don't get points for 2012 stats (of which were skewed by one huge week)

Runner up - Drew Brees (see oblique strain)


Round 3. Julius Thomas - everyone forgetting it took him two years to get on the field and he even missed a couple games last year.

Round 4. Michael Crabtree - favorite target maybe, but lots of mouths to feed and no Peyton Manning waiters to serve.

Round 5. Ray Rice - good luck with that

Round 6. Jason Witten - name value can only take you so far.

Round 7. Sammy Watkins - a rookie receiver on a team with a bad QB usually doesn't go well.

Round 8. Greg Olsen - consistency is nice, but I'll take two or three guys just the same three rounds later.

Round 9. DST - usually the Seahawks first, but any defense here is just plain silly.

Round 10. ...can you really bust down here?

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

I disagree with manning, Graham, Thomas, and Ray rice. Unless manning gets hurt, he'll be the best QB in the league with no games where he's a stinker in. Graham will be Brees' favorite target. Thomas will be the best QBs TE, which is going to make him Atleast top 5, probably top 3. Ray Rice was injured last year and Kubiak is bringing the zone blocking plays that made running back gems every year for Houston.

 

[TKOSpikes]

To each his own. I'm calling Aaron Rodgers the #1 QB this year. Gronk the #1 TE (although the injury risk will sway me in drafts)...and I think Rice is done....
but I didn't/don't expect many agreements here.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Here are my bust picks for each round.

Round 1. Peyton Manning - too many people paying for last year, but this year there's a better defense and a tougher schedule and what I think will be a better ground game.

Runner up - Jimmy Graham (for much of the same reasons and don't underestimate Brees' "tweaked oblique".


Round 2. Doug Martin - not sure why he gets the nod over so many...don't get points for 2012 stats (of which were skewed by one huge week)

Runner up - Drew Brees (see oblique strain)


Round 3. Julius Thomas - everyone forgetting it took him two years to get on the field and he even missed a couple games last year.

Round 4. Michael Crabtree - favorite target maybe, but lots of mouths to feed and no Peyton Manning waiters to serve.

Round 5. Ray Rice - good luck with that

Round 6. Jason Witten - name value can only take you so far.

Round 7. Sammy Watkins - a rookie receiver on a team with a bad QB usually doesn't go well.

Round 8. Greg Olsen - consistency is nice, but I'll take two or three guys just the same three rounds later.

Round 9. DST - usually the Seahawks first, but any defense here is just plain silly.

Round 10. ...can you really bust down here?

I can see good arguments for all TK. I agree with Manning and Thomas, think Martin and Crabby bounce back and I sure won't be owning Graham this year unless he drops out of the first round (if he is there for me in round 2 of the MBBRL draft I'd take him) but I'm not stupid enough to think he'll even be there for me in round 1!

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

To each his own. I'm calling Aaron Rodgers the #1 QB this year. Gronk the #1 TE (although the injury risk will sway me in drafts)...and I think Rice is done....
but I didn't/don't expect many agreements here.

Yeah, I think Rodgers starts struggling with injuries this year. He gets hit way too often and the Green Bay front office continues to do little to address the terrible Oline in front of him. I also will not touch gronk with a ten foot pole.

 

[Bandit]

Sticking with your format TKO, I just like it.

Here are my bust picks for each round.

Round 1. Calvin Johnson - Not that I don't see him having a great year, but in order to be drafted in the top 8 he should be that much better than the next best wide receiver and I don't think he finishes the year as the top wide receiver. I think he finishes in the top 5 though.

Runner up - Marshawn Lynch (Never good to start the season unhappy)


Round 2. Demarco Murray - if he stays healthy he will be great, the problem is I just don't see him staying healthy. The other problem is that the Cowboys suck at playcalling and he goes through long stretches of never touching the ball.

Runner up - Doug Martin (I just don't get why he's going so high)


Round 3. Alshon Jeffery - Had his best games last year with McCown at quarterback and Cutler loves Marshall a lot more. I think he'll be good, just not 3rd round good.

Round 4. Rob Gronkowski - You take the chance and draft him.

Round 5. Percy Harvin - see Gronkowski, Rob

Round 6. Robert Griffin III - Way too many good quarterbacks for me to take a chance on a guy that was hurt and quite frankly just didn't play well last year when he was on the field.

Round 7. Golden Tate - It doesn't matter who they put over there, Stafford is not going to throw him the ball. He will throw to his running backs and into triple coverage to Megatron.

Round 8. Eric Decker - No way I'm drafting a Jets receiver, no way. Plus, it's a big difference between being the #3 option on your team and always getting single coverage and being the #1 receiver and always getting the other team's best guy.

Round 9. Knowshon Moreno - Starting off the season overweight, getting hurt, and has a new offensive line. Oh yeah, he also won't get to run against 6 man boxes the whole season. Ryan Tannehill is not Peyton Manning.

Round 10. ...can you really bust down here? If you can I am going with Darren McFadden because what would a bust list be without listing him somewhere on it.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Good stuff canes. I love the Jeffery call. Murray is a top five back for me, but so was McFadden for so long and maybe I didn't learn my lesson.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Sticking with your format TKO, I just like it.

Here are my bust picks for each round.

Round 1. Calvin Johnson - Not that I don't see him having a great year, but in order to be drafted in the top 8 he should be that much better than the next best wide receiver and I don't think he finishes the year as the top wide receiver. I think he finishes in the top 5 though.

Runner up - Marshawn Lynch (Never good to start the season unhappy)


Round 2. Demarco Murray - if he stays healthy he will be great, the problem is I just don't see him staying healthy. The other problem is that the Cowboys suck at playcalling and he goes through long stretches of never touching the ball.

Runner up - Doug Martin (I just don't get why he's going so high)


Round 3. Alshon Jeffery - Had his best games last year with McCown at quarterback and Cutler loves Marshall a lot more. I think he'll be good, just not 3rd round good.

Round 4. Rob Gronkowski - You take the chance and draft him.

Round 5. Percy Harvin - see Gronkowski, Rob

Round 6. Robert Griffin III - Way too many good quarterbacks for me to take a chance on a guy that was hurt and quite frankly just didn't play well last year when he was on the field.

Round 7. Golden Tate - It doesn't matter who they put over there, Stafford is not going to throw him the ball. He will throw to his running backs and into triple coverage to Megatron.

Round 8. Eric Decker - No way I'm drafting a Jets receiver, no way. Plus, it's a big difference between being the #3 option on your team and always getting single coverage and being the #1 receiver and always getting the other team's best guy.

Round 9. Knowshon Moreno - Starting off the season overweight, getting hurt, and has a new offensive line. Oh yeah, he also won't get to run against 6 man boxes the whole season. Ryan Tannehill is not Peyton Manning.

Round 10. ...can you really bust down here? If you can I am going with Darren McFadden because what would a bust list be without listing him somewhere on it.

There is not one player I disagree with here. Good choices.

 

[TREFF]

Seems like a fun exercise, I"m in! 12 teamer I assume?


Round 1. Lynch-Still going to be worthy of a RB1, but the return on investment isn't going to be worth a pick that high. (while i agree that Manning won't meet the lofty expectations, I still think he's the top QB overall, and thus can't be a "bust")

Runner up - Adrian Peterson-the miles are racking up, and the team around him isn't getting much better

Round 2.Levon Bell, didn't like him last year where he was being drafted, not much has changed. He did convince me that he's good enough to be a lead back, but he's exceedingly average at it. Add in Blount and his value in the second is negative


Runner up - Alf Morris- can't say it often enough, not even the best RB on his team, the new regime will realize this soon enough and Alf owners will curse the name "Helu"


Round 3. Andre Ellington-not because I don't think the kid can't handle the load (which I don't), but because ARZ is laughable in the run game

Round 4. Cordarrelle Paterson- I like him, but a 4th round ADP is far to much for an unproven second year WR with Cassel/Bridgewater at QB. If he was being taken in the sixth or seventh, he'd be a borderline steal..but not the 4th

Round 5. Bishop Sankey-post draft he was the only rookie RB I cared for, given the situations and where the others fell. But if the guy can't beat out Shonne Green without much effort, he's not going to have any better luck beating NFL defenses either, and that's IF he's given the opportunity

Round 6. Stevan Ridley-as others have mentioned, he gets in his own way to often, adn with the Hoody, that's never a good thing.

Round 7. Sammy Watkins -no arguments from me on this one TKO..dude has first year fantasy bust written ALL OVER him

Round 8. Seattle--my ADP data has them with an 8th round grade (91st overall)..even more of a problem than in your scenario. And we all know once Seattle goes, the floodgates for about 4-5 more in the next two rounds will go, all of them equally "busts"

Round 9. Dwayne Bowe- not really sure why a guy built like a possession type receiver can't thrive with an "always take the safe route" QB like Alex Smith, but he doesn't, so I wouldn't touch him without being desperate

Round 10. ...yes you can bust down here..DMC, J. Gordon, T. Austin, Danny Amendola, and KNowshon Moreno all have 10th round grades, all are very capable of providing ZERO assistance to your fantasy teams, whether its because they, predictably, aren't playing well, or aren't playing at all due to injury/suspension.

 

[Barilko]

Good stuff canes. I love the Jeffery call. Murray is a top five back for me, but so was McFadden for so long and maybe I didn't learn my lesson.

Love this write up great thread TKO and i dont dare be as insightful
Bandit tremendous follow
Great job guys...

 

[Barilko]

Seems like a fun exercise, I"m in! 12 teamer I assume?


Round 1. Lynch-Still going to be worthy of a RB1, but the return on investment isn't going to be worth a pick that high. (while i agree that Manning won't meet the lofty expectations, I still think he's the top QB overall, and thus can't be a "bust")

Runner up - Adrian Peterson-the miles are racking up, and the team around him isn't getting much better

Round 2.Levon Bell, didn't like him last year where he was being drafted, not much has changed. He did convince me that he's good enough to be a lead back, but he's exceedingly average at it. Add in Blount and his value in the second is negative


Runner up - Alf Morris- can't say it often enough, not even the best RB on his team, the new regime will realize this soon enough and Alf owners will curse the name "Helu"


Round 3. Andre Ellington-not because I don't think the kid can't handle the load (which I don't), but because ARZ is laughable in the run game

Round 4. Cordarrelle Paterson- I like him, but a 4th round ADP is far to much for an unproven second year WR with Cassel/Bridgewater at QB. If he was being taken in the sixth or seventh, he'd be a borderline steal..but not the 4th

Round 5. Bishop Sankey-post draft he was the only rookie RB I cared for, given the situations and where the others fell. But if the guy can't beat out Shonne Green without much effort, he's not going to have any better luck beating NFL defenses either, and that's IF he's given the opportunity

Round 6. Stevan Ridley-as others have mentioned, he gets in his own way to often, adn with the Hoody, that's never a good thing.

Round 7. Sammy Watkins -no arguments from me on this one TKO..dude has first year fantasy bust written ALL OVER him

Round 8. Seattle--my ADP data has them with an 8th round grade (91st overall)..even more of a problem than in your scenario. And we all know once Seattle goes, the floodgates for about 4-5 more in the next two rounds will go, all of them equally "busts"

Round 9. Dwayne Bowe- not really sure why a guy built like a possession type receiver can't thrive with an "always take the safe route" QB like Alex Smith, but he doesn't, so I wouldn't touch him without being desperate

Round 10. ...yes you can bust down here..DMC, J. Gordon, T. Austin, Danny Amendola, and KNowshon Moreno all have 10th round grades, all are very capable of providing ZERO assistance to your fantasy teams, whether its because they, predictably, aren't playing well, or aren't playing at all due to injury/suspension.

solid job also Treff

 

[TKOSpikes]

Round 10. ...yes you can bust down here..

yeah, but you don't care about dropping them at that cost.

 

[averagejoe]

TKO, I think you might be wrong on Ray Rice as a 5th round bust. His mileage scares me of a little, but the new OC is Gary Kubiak and if it's one thing we know about Kubiak-run teams - they run and run and run. Rice may end up getting 1300 rushing yards just based on volume of attempts alone.

Other than that - I like everyone's contribution.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Funny how I can hit most of these... too bad I didn't add the names if the players I picked as well!

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Funny how I can hit most of these... too bad I didn't add the names if the players I picked as well!

very nice calls - some of your reasoning was spot on as well, care to share your crystal ball next year before we draft our money leagues???

 

[TKOSpikes]

Not sure what crystal ball I have, having picked Spiller, Mike Floyd, Pierce, Gore, and Ertz to name a few.

 

[Chef99]

But you really did nail those predictions except for Manning...I'm kinda the same way: "Do as I say, not as I do".

Only thing is, sometimes the "do as I say" part doesn't work out so well either.

 

[tlance]

Not sure what crystal ball I have, having picked Spiller, Mike Floyd, Pierce, Gore, and Ertz to name a few.

So, if you just add the players you picked as busts to the ones you drafted, that makes a pretty complete list!

Still nothing beats this team I drafted. 14 team league, I was super excited about it. Here were my first 5 picks:

Ball
Martin
Floyd
Vereen
Cameron

Can you say ouch?

 

[Sam Sportboy]

So, if you just add the players you picked as busts to the ones you drafted, that makes a pretty complete list!

Still nothing beats this team I drafted. 14 team league, I was super excited about it. Here were my first 5 picks:

Ball
Martin
Floyd
Vereen
Cameron

Can you say ouch?

Now that was funny!

 

[TKOSpikes]

The thing about Manning though, even though he was fine most of the season, the first round separation wasn't there...snd he probably just punted his owners out of the playoffs with a deuce against my Bills!