Three Postseason Questions

[tzill]

Pavlovic raises three good questions in his latest blog:

1. What is the rotation going to look like?
2. Where does Belt play?
3. Do we grind for the #1 or #2 seeds?

My guesses:

1. Cain/Bum/Tim/Zeets with Tron piggy-backing Zeets in the bullpen. The great likelihood is Cain and Bum at AT&T with Timmy in game 3 and Zeets game 4 in CIN or WAS. Some stats regarding CIN and WAS:

Timmy: 270/429/781 vs CIN roster; 273/468/805 vs. WAS; didn't face Reds; two disaster starts (0 PQS) vs. Nats

Z: 303/507/903 vs. CIN; 188/363/696 vs. WAS; solid (PQS 3) and dominant (PQS 5) vs. Reds; didn't face Nats

Tron: 312/462/830 vs. CIN; 400/480/924 vs WAS; two dominant starts (5,4) vs. Reds; one disaster (0) vs. Nats

In this scenario, you hope for the Toothpick instead of Davey.

2. Timmy has said he doesn't expect to catch His Freakitude. Given the fragile nature of Timmah' psyche and the way he's been pitching since the break to Chez3, I think Hector starts game 3. MVP moves to 1B, and that puts Pick either on the bench or in LF. I think Boch uses the final 9 games to get Pick comfortable in LF.

3. Cranium has a balancing act to do here: he wants to win games but he also needs to get the team ready for the post season by resting strategically. We are going to play 3 games against AZ who are 4 back in the WC loss column with 10 to play; they might put up a fight. After that, it's SD (done) and LA (3 back with 9 to play, but probably done by the time we get to Chavez). Essentially 9 exhibition games. We are three behind CIN for the #2, and four behind WAS for the #1 seed. As discussed before, the #3 seed is the garden spot -- the #1 seed has to wait around Thursday and Friday to see which city they have to fly to to open their LDS on Sunday. The #2 and #3 seeds know that they'll play in the #3 city on Saturday. Currently, this would bring The Toothpick to AT&T.

Likely, the Reds and Nats will continue to win and this will be a moot point. Nats on pace to win 98, Reds 97, Giants 94. Boch could grind to get to 96, maybe, but that still would leave us in the #3 seed unless one of the top two goes into a dive. Even then, a #2 seed would just mean opening on the road in the DS. I don't think Boch grinds unless the Reds/Nats start flailing.

 

[msgkings322]

I'd like to see your #2 happen, see Bochy play Belt in LF to get him ready. That would be the smart thing to do and I'd be curious why they don't, if they don't

 

[tzill]

And on a related note, my PS roster prediction:

C: MVP, Chez3
1B: Pick, Huffer
2B: Moped, Riot
SS: Fish, Arias
3B: Panda
LF: X, Shark
CF: Oxy
RF: Herk

SP: Horse, Bum, Freak, Z, Tron (piggybacking)
RP: Romo, Affeldt, KCya, LOOGY, Kontos, Mijares, Weed

Cranium could drop a RP and keep another OF (Peggs to piggyback Huffer?) but I doubt it -- Boch loves him some bullpen moves, and this would give him maximum flexibility with three lefties. That Mijares claim might turn out to be pretty significant in the playoffs.

 

[SFGRTB]

I don't think the X-man is eligible for the post season is he? Don't you have to be on the 25-man, DL or restricted listed buy August 31st?

It'd have to be Christian.

 

[gp956]

And on a related note, my PS roster prediction:

C: MVP, Chez3
1B: Pick, Huffer
2B: Moped, Riot
SS: Fish, Arias
3B: Panda
LF: X, Shark
CF: Oxy
RF: Herk

SP: Horse, Bum, Freak, Z, Tron (piggybacking)
RP: Romo, Affeldt, KCya, LOOGY, Kontos, Mijares, Weed

Cranium could drop a RP and keep another OF (Peggs to piggyback Huffer?) but I doubt it -- Boch loves him some bullpen moves, and this would give him maximum flexibility with three lefties. That Mijares claim might turn out to be pretty significant in the playoffs.

This roster looks exactly right - right down to the faint possibility of keeping pegs. Re Pegs, we should expect the starting 8 to score runs, so I think Boch will concentrate on high leverage run PREVENTION rather than high leverage run production, which we know is his tendency anyway.

 

[SFGRTB]

I think Boch will use Belt in LF in the postseason a lot, he has to keep him in the lineup somehow.

And I completely agree with the piggy-backing of Zeets/Volgy but I don't think the Giants would do it. I hope they do though because it's a great idea.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think Vogey will be a PiggyBack for EVERYONE.

During his bad spell (going off of observation, not stats) he has been pretty balls the first time through the lineup. He would be a GREAT 3 IP guy in the needed situation of a bed-shitting. 3 IPs does not require a full 4 days rest...

 

[gp956]

I think Vogey will be a PiggyBack for EVERYONE.

During his bad spell (going off of observation, not stats) he has been pretty balls the first time through the lineup. He would be a GREAT 3 IP guy in the needed situation of a bed-shitting. 3 IPs does not require a full 4 days rest...

This.

 

[filosofy29]

I think Vogey will be a PiggyBack for EVERYONE.

During his bad spell (going off of observation, not stats) he has been pretty balls the first time through the lineup. He would be a GREAT 3 IP guy in the needed situation of a bed-shitting. 3 IPs does not require a full 4 days rest...

Disclaimer: I want Vogey on the Playoff Roster.

That said, here would be one minor concern/hypothetical. I know people are worried about Zito coming out of the bullpen because of his inexplicable inability to find the strike zone at times. One thing that would worry me about as an unknown variable with Vogelsong out of the Bullpen is that it's well known he puts his "game face" on before his starts.....would it take him awhile to find that intensity? Is it easy for him to just "turn it on" at any time during a random game when called upon? Etc. Now obviously I have zero stats or anything like this to back up a concern like this, but I thought I'd throw it out there to see what you folks think. Do you think something like this may be an issue for Vogey too out of the pen?

EDIT: As per the thread though, here are my guesses: 1.) Cain/Bum/Timmay/Whoever pitches the best over the next two starts. 2.) I think Belt will get around 3 starts in LF to see how it goes. 3.) I think Bochy will go 2 games hard 1 game off for the various regular starters who need the rest (i.e. - Posey, Scutaro, Pagan, Sandoval).

 

[tzill]

I expect Tron to be pretty much pissed off throughout the playoffs. No worries about intensity if he's intense all October.

 

[calsnowskier]

Great point, Filo, but I tend to agree with tz.

Strong seems to have the Jeff Kent / Will Clark intensity X10. That is bad for the regular season to have every day. Mrs Vogelsong would be the ex-Mrs. Vogelsong real quick in this situation.

But for a 3-week stretch, with a ring and immortality at the end, I think that if ANYONE can do it, Strong is the one.

 

[SFGRTB]

On Cabrera, listen to this:

Sergio Romo, Giants Pitcher, explains why he wants Melky Cabrera on his playoff roster and why he stands behind Alex Smith's choice of postgame headgear, on "Inside Pitch" with Casey Stern and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. - SiriusXM S

Why wouldn't we want him on our team?" asked Romo, before going onto call Cabrera a "great teammate" That was Romo on Melky Cabrera on MLB Network radio.

 

[tzill]

And one offseason question:

Do the Giants make a qualifying offer to Leche to ensure they get a draft pick? Estimates are that offer would be in the $13MM range.

If they do, would Melky decline?

If Melky doesn't decline, how would that play out in the clubhouse?

Interesting....

 

[calsnowskier]

And one offseason question:

Do the Giants make a qualifying offer to Leche to ensure they get a draft pick? Estimates are that offer would be in the $13MM range.

If they do, would Melky decline?

If Melky doesn't decline, how would that play out in the clubhouse?

Interesting....

All comes down to what Cain, Posey, et al say. If the team will accept him back, than there is a decent shot he gets the offer.

 

[filosofy29]

I expect Tron to be pretty much pissed off throughout the playoffs. No worries about intensity if he's intense all October.

Great point, Filo, but I tend to agree with tz.

Strong seems to have the Jeff Kent / Will Clark intensity X10. That is bad for the regular season to have every day. Mrs Vogelsong would be the ex-Mrs. Vogelsong real quick in this situation.

But for a 3-week stretch, with a ring and immortality at the end, I think that if ANYONE can do it, Strong is the one.

lol, both of the above would have received rep. Well played gentlemen.

On Cabrera, listen to this:

Sergio Romo, Giants Pitcher, explains why he wants Melky Cabrera on his playoff roster and why he stands behind Alex Smith's choice of postgame headgear, on "Inside Pitch" with Casey Stern and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. - SiriusXM S

Why wouldn't we want him on our team?" asked Romo, before going onto call Cabrera a "great teammate" That was Romo on Melky Cabrera on MLB Network radio.

I hope this doesn't create a dichotomy in the clubhouse. As long as they have done and said the right things and have had the right conversations within the clubhouse walls, I'm good with whatever decision they make. That said, if it were left up to me, I think I'd make it known publicly (although privately to the team first) that Melky will not be a factor for the Giants in the 2012 playoffs. I'm not against him coming back next year, but I think there needs to be a clean break from him for this season. Some of the Giants don't seem to care one way or the other, some want him back and some seem against it.....I don't think that would be a good cloud hanging over the dugout/clubhouse. Let the Giants focus on what they need to do for the rest of this season/postseason and worry about Melky next year.

 

[Robotech]

I don't think the X-man is eligible for the post season is he? Don't you have to be on the 25-man, DL or restricted listed buy August 31st?

It'd have to be Christian.

Nady's eligible. I remember them saying this during one of the Cubs-Giants games earlier this month.

 

[calsnowskier]

Nady's eligible. I remember them saying this during one of the Cubs-Giants games earlier this month.

He is not automatically eligible, but he is in the universe of eligible. Any player who was on the 40 on September 1 can be added with the right hoop-jumping.

Marco, can you explain further?

 

[Robotech]

If Melky is able help this team, I think the Giants should bring him back for the NLCS, if they get that far. Our biggest question mark is LF. There's no logical reason to treat him differently than the way they treated Mota. He will have served his punishment like Mota did. The only thing I wouldn't like is that we would never hear the end of how Melky taints the Giants' postseason success, but people will do that anyway even if we didn't use Melky in the postseason.

 

[Robotech]

He is not automatically eligible, but he is in the universe of eligible. Any player who was on the 40 on September 1 can be added with the right hoop-jumping.

Marco, can you explain further?

The Giants front office is great at hoop-jumping. If they want Nady on the postseason roster, I think they'll have him take Franchez's spot.

 

[Heathbar012]

If Melky is able help this team, I think the Giants should bring him back for the NLCS, if they get that far. Our biggest question mark is LF. There's no logical reason to treat him differently than the way they treated Mota. He will have served his punishment like Mota did. The only thing I wouldn't like is that we would never hear the end of how Melky taints the Giants' postseason success, but people will do that anyway even if we didn't use Melky in the postseason.

This. Great poster. A++++++. Will read again.