The Road to a Repeat: Complete NFL Standings and Playoff Predictions

[iknowftbll]

As promised, I'm taking my predictions to the next level this year. I haven't decided if this is a one-time thing simply because the Broncos are defending champs or what. Now we all know how hard it is for a team to repeat. (That's why I don't buy into the narrative about the 2000 Ravens or 2002 Buccaneers: i.e. "You can't repeat on defense alone." because it's damn near impossible to repeat anyway! Why are those teams singled out as if other teams have been any more successful? But I digress.)

Knowing how hard it is to repeat, I am going to preface my predictions with a bit of a cop-out. In recent years I've always expected the Broncos to contend for a Super Bowl title and rightly so. This year I expect no less: The Broncos will contend for a Super Bowl title. But to what extent to I truly EXPECT them to repeat? I can see it...then again I can see them falling short too. So what I've assembled here is what I consider a reasonable charting of how a repeat would transpire, if indeed it were to transpire.

So let's start at the beginning. Or more appropriately, the ending. As in how the final standings will look at the end of the regular season. And like I said, while I always pick playoff seeds, this is my first time actually picking W-L for the entire league. And guess what? It's probably just as good as anything any of the experts will put together too!

In the AFC:

West:

Broncos: 12-4
Raiders: 10-6
Chiefs: 8-8
Chargers: 7-9

Rationale: Stated and re-stated.

South:

Texans: 10-6
Colts: 8-8
Jaguars: 7-9
Titans: 4-12

Rationale: When I started I was going to go out on a limb and pick the Jaguars. They've got a lot of talent up and down the roster, but it just hasn't come together yet. The Colts are once again a one-man show with Andrew Luck. I see them as good enough to reach .500 but not good enough on O or D to get over the hump. The Titans...well maybe there's next year. The Texans are the most logical pick because they have hands down the best defense in the division and their offense should be a cut above what it was last year. Give those Jags another year and this may be a hotly contested division.

North:

Bengals: 12-4
Steelers: 11-5
Ravens: 7-9
Browns: 4-12

Rationale: It would be really easy to take a look at the Browns schedule and nominate them most likely to go 0-16 in 2016. But Hue Jackson won't let that happen. The Ravens had a tough season last year, and it's really hard to discern to what extent a team like that is going to rebound. The Steelers are an awesome team, one of the better offenses in the league, but their defense is still a work in progress. The Bengals represent the best balance in the division. I think they've got a consecutive division title in them. That hasn't happened in years.

East:

Patriots: 11-5
Bills: 8-8
Jets: 7-9
Dolphins: 5-11

Rationale: The Patriots even without Brady likely don't start any worse than 2-2. The Jets may get a better record than that if they bring back Fitz. Even if that happens I am not sure if I'm ready to proclaim them contenders because Fitz pretty much has had just the one really good season. The Dolphins just can't seem to get it together. As for the Bills, I am just not a believer in Rex Ryan. I like the guy but I don't think he has what it takes to get his team over the hump. Especially in a division that includes the Patriots.

The NFC is coming up next...

 

[iknowftbll]

In the NFC:

West:

Cardinals: 13-3
Seahawks: 12-4
Rams: 4-12
49ers: 3-13

Rationale: If you like symmetry this is the division for you. I think the Cardinals have another good season in store with, but will get a little more resistance out of the likes of the Seahawks this time around. The Rams I don't expect much out of. In fact, I am beginning to seriously wonder how in the hell Jeff Fisher has a job with them still. Seems like a perennial 7-9 team. This year they won't be that good. And the 49ers are simply a team I have no respect for at this point. It's rare I predict a team worse than 4-12. Congratulations, 49ers: you suck that bad.

South:

Panthers: 11-5
Falcons: 8-8
Buccaneers: 6-10
Saints: 6-10

Rationale: The teams in this division used to take turns in first but the Panthers have been hogging that in recent years. They'll continue to do so this year. The other three teams just have too many issues. No defense, still young and coming of age at key positions or just under performing. It doesn't help they all have to play a stout slate that includes the AFC West.

North:

Packers: 14-2
Vikings: 8-8
Lions: 6-10
Bears: 5-11

Rationale: It's rare I predict a team better than 12-4, but take a look at the Packers schedule and tell me they are not a candidate to go 16-0. I am not a believer in the Vikings: I think they are a flash in the pan that lacks staying power. The Lions just lost their best player and the Bears have a coach who relies too heavily on the talent of his players. Only now he has Jay Cutler instead of Peyton Manning. The Packers mow though this division easily.

East:

Redskins: 10-6
Giants: 9-7
Cowboys: 7-9
Eagles: 3-13

Rationale: Maybe I'm biased because I live in the Redskins market and hear a lot of hype about their offense. Their defense should be improved in 2016 too. Aside from that, this really is a tough division to figure out. The last time the Redskins had expectations going into a season they did a Cleveland Browns impression that would make even Tim Couch or any of the other 20+ QBs they've had since returning to the league envious. The Giants rolled out the checkbook on defense and still have the best QB in the division (though Cousins could challenge that status). That could go either way: a fearsome unit or something reminiscent of Vince Young's Eagles "dream team." And speaking of the Eagles, I'll just say it directly: I have no respect for them at all. I think this team is going to get crushed early and often this year. As for the Cowboys, they'll be in the mix if Romo can stay healthy. Big if.

Up next: Playoff seeds and predictions.

 

[iknowftbll]

Perhaps the biggest issue with this prediction is the lack of turnover from last year to this year. With that said, just because there's been a trend of 3 or 4 teams turning over doesn't mean it'll continue indefinitely. In fact, I'd say the league is due for a year in which the majority of playoff teams return.

The playoff seeds:

AFC:

1. Bengals: 12-4
2. Broncos: 12-4
3. Patriots: 11-5
4. Texans: 10-6
5. Steelers: 11-5
6. Raiders: 10-6

The Bengals are the #1 seed with a tie breaker over the Broncos via a week 3 head to head win over the Broncos.

NFC:

1. Packers: 14-2
2. Cardinals: 13-3
3. Panthers: 11-5
4. Redskins: 10-6
5. Seahawks: 12-4
6. Giants: 9-7

Playoff predictions:

Wild Card Weekend:

Texans over Steelers: A bold prediction if ever one existed. I just think after a 30-0 railing last year, a stout defense and what should be an improved offense the Texans rise to the challenge and fend off the Steelers at home. But if you think that's a bold prediction...

Raiders over Patriots: Yes you read that right. Not only do I think the Raiders make the playoffs, I think they're going to go into the Pats' house and beat them in the playoffs. The Pats haven't gone one-n-done is a few years and part of that is because they've never had to play in the first round. The last time they played in the first round? They went one-n-done.

Panthers over Giants: The better team wins. Nothing special about that.

Seahawks over Redskins: The better team wins once again. The Redskins have the misfortune of catching a very good #5 seed for the third straight playoff appearance. Meanwhile the Seahawks have been arguably the class of the NFC in recent years and get a little more battle tested in the post-season with every passing year.

Divisional Round:

Broncos over Texans: Like the regular season game between these two, the media will try to manufacture a storyline that has a tenuous existence if any at all. "Brock returns to Denver." "Kubiak faces his old team." The truth is the Broncos have already turned the page on that situation and while the players may not have appreciated Oz's "best chance to win" comment, the truth is this game won't be a grudge match. The single most significant aspect of this game is that it'll be the first meeting between these teams in the playoffs.

Bengals over Raiders: I know, I know...I'm telling you the Raiders are going to go into Foxborough and knock off Tom Brady, BB, and the Patriots, then get beat by Andy Dalton and the Bengals? By Marvin Lewis? He of the 0-7 playoff record? And that's exactly why I'm calling it this way: Both teams are due. The Patriots are due for a one-n-done as stated and the Bengals are due for a win.

Cardinals over Panthers: The Cardinals get some revenge after being escorted from the playoffs by the Panthers in each of the past two seasons. The Panthers would likely win this one again if it were in Charlotte, but it's not. This time around it goes to the Cards.

Seahawks over Packers: The Packers will cruise to a 14-2 record off an easy schedule but as often happens to teams like that they get upset in the playoffs by lesser teams. And it's not like the Seahawks are truly a lesser team. A 12-4 Seahawks will be just as good a team as a 14-2 Packers. Better, even.

Conference Championship Games:

Cardinals over Seahawks: This will be a very enticing matchup, and likely come down to the wire but at the end of the day the Cardinals will punch their ticket to their second Super Bowl.

Broncos over Bengals: The Bengals will be heavily favored. The narrative going in will be now that they have the playoff monkey off their back, and considering their win over the Broncos earlier in the season, the Bengals will cruise. But what often happens to a team after their first win after a long playoff drought/losing streak is instead of the monkey being off their back, an emotional vacuum ensues. (I know you are tired of hearing about the 2013 Falcons so I won't mention them again. Oh. Uh...)

Super Bowl LI: Broncos over Cardinals. By a count of 23-7. Not dissimilar to 50: the defense controls it and the offense does just enough to keep the game out of reach.

 

[iknowftbll]

General thoughts on the playoffs:

I know everyone wanted to see me predict another win over the Patriots. Or maybe another Broncos-Steelers playoff showdown. The truth is those combinations happen often enough that to predict it would seem contrived. Forced, even. And while I think the idea of a Broncos-Raiders AFCCG is as exciting as it gets, and I DID predict the Raiders to win a playoff game, I honestly don't think they'll be good enough to win two road playoff games. Lastly, I know everyone would rather see a Broncos-Seahawks rematch. Again: that seemed forced and contrived. Besides, I honestly don't think it'll happen.

Also, predicting the entire league's W-L is ludicrous enough. Predicting playoff outcomes this far out is pure lunacy. As I said, I see this more of a reasonable expectation of how a repeat would happen, if indeed it did.

I hope you enjoyed reading these!

 

[randymon]

Pretty much hard to argue with most of those final standing " order " anyway. I don't think GB, Cards and Carolina will have as good of W-L records and I think Rams will be better than 4-12. I think Denver has showed the NFL how to beat Panthers....make Cam throw and at least vs the good teams ( nobody in their div ) he will be exposed and start turning ball over more this year. They will still win div cause it sucks right now. Just getting Jordy back and a slimmed down Lacy won't propel GB to that record. They still have some big holes. I do think they win div also. Otherwise,that's my worthless 2 cents and great job my man.

 

[SpiritOf77]

Epic post IKF .. great stuff

I think the Cowboys win that division, as I think Elliot will step right in and be a monster w/ that Oline ..

And I really like Hue Jackson .. not sure about RGIII, but Jackson will have the Browns on the right track

 

[Mingo]

I think the Bears and the Vikes will be much improved over last year - and challenge the Packers for the division.

I think Ikno nailed the AFC - with the possible exception of the Steelers over the Bengals.

The NFC east - will also be a traditional dog fight -between the Cowboys, Giants and Washington - i can see the Giants being resurgent - I expect the Cowboys to be better and Washington will be improved - I'm coping out and naming this division - too early to call.

 

[iknowftbll]

You could be right about both the Bears and Vikings. The Bears did lose their OC, and while the Vikings are good on defense, and I was impressed with Bridgewater's poise even as he was getting his lunch money stolen by the Broncos, I just question their staying power two years in a row.

 

[Mingo]

I really admire Fox as a coach - he just could not get his players inspired for big games. I trust him to build a contender. For the Vikes - i expect Bridgewater to get better faster than the rate of which AP declines.

 

[iknowftbll]

Interesting take on the Vikings. Usually a team with a good defense and RB I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but I didn't do that with the Vikings or Rams for this year. With the Rams I am just baffled at how Fisher is still employed.

As for Fox, I agree: he will build the Bears (Build-a-bear?) into a decent team. I expect the Bears will be closer to Fox's Panthers than his Broncos teams, though. Another transitional season with better teams ahead of them, but they could break out next year. Then they'll alternate between 11-5 and 7-9 every other year much the way the Panthers did with Fox.

 

[randymon]

I really admire Fox as a coach - he just could not get his players inspired for big games. I trust him to build a contender. For the Vikes - i expect Bridgewater to get better faster than the rate of which AP declines.

Sorry Mingo but I'm going to have to disagree on the Fox love to a degree anyway. I think he's soft, didn't utilize the talent he had available and was negligent in giving the young guys not only the opportunity to compete but even when they showed good promise and actually out performed the starters, he was to stubborn or clueless to make changes. Del Rio sucked as a D cord for a lot of same reasons. Both coaches I think of benefited more by inheriting a talented roster which if they were more insightful coaches might have taken the teams to better results than they achieved. No love or respect for Fox or Rio. Sorry.

 

[randymon]

PS. Fox will fail with Bears and Rio is lucky he's head coach and has good coaching staffsto bail him out. If he was DC in Oakland this year he would get fired by wknd 5.

 

[RobBase]

6-10? BOOOOOOO!

 

[randymon]

6-10? BOOOOOOO!

That's an upgrade isn't it based on the expert consensus?

 

[iknowftbll]

6-10? BOOOOOOO!

Yeah, I guess it's impossible to pick the entire league and simultaneously make everyone happy. The Lions appear to have had a pretty solid draft, but they bring back the 32nd ranked rushing offense and now they are without Calvin Johnson, their leading receiver from 2015. I don't see the rookie class or FAs coming in and making up the difference on that offense. And the defense was just not very good. Even a significant improvement would place them as a "middling" unit, not good enough to compensate for an offense that may struggle to score.

 

[RobBase]

Yeah, I guess it's impossible to pick the entire league and simultaneously make everyone happy. The Lions appear to have had a pretty solid draft, but they bring back the 32nd ranked rushing offense and now they are without Calvin Johnson, their leading receiver from 2015. I don't see the rookie class or FAs coming in and making up the difference on that offense. And the defense was just not very good. Even a significant improvement would place them as a "middling" unit, not good enough to compensate for an offense that may struggle to score.

You're probably right. I'm hoping for at least 9-7. Epic posts though.

 

[iknowftbll]

You're probably right. I'm hoping for at least 9-7. Epic posts though.

Thank you for the kind words.

I'm awful at projecting how well a draft pick is going to fit with a team I don't follow closely. How do you feel about the draft? Seems a lot of long-term guys in this year's class but as I mentioned, nobody that jumps out as that guy who is going to be the go-to RB, replace Johnson, etc...

 

[cdumler7]

This was an incredible read! Now obviously we are all going to have our disagreements. For me I have stated before that I don't think the Raiders will be a playoff team this year. I think they will be like many other overhyped teams and fall very short of what the analyst think they will do. I think 7-9 seems about right. I also think that last month is going to be a doozy for them. 3 of the last 4 all on the road against division opponents. Not exactly what you want to see at that point.

Again great read and will have to think on this some more.

 

[Mingo]

Sorry Mingo but I'm going to have to disagree on the Fox love to a degree anyway. I think he's soft, didn't utilize the talent he had available and was negligent in giving the young guys not only the opportunity to compete but even when they showed good promise and actually out performed the starters, he was to stubborn or clueless to make changes. Del Rio sucked as a D cord for a lot of same reasons. Both coaches I think of benefited more by inheriting a talented roster which if they were more insightful coaches might have taken the teams to better results than they achieved. No love or respect for Fox or Rio. Sorry.

Not so much of a disagreement - Fox can get a team to a certain level and it stops. I was highly critical of him and called for his firing after the Super Bowl in 2013. His track record with the Panthers and Broncos hit the same ceiling. The trick for the Bears will be to move to replace Fox - after the builds the foundation.

I agree with most of your criticisms -and Kubiak is the UnFox - thank goodness.

 

[Mingo]

For the Raiders - they have some very high skilled and upward trajectory group of young players, but lack a couple of layers of depth in comparison to the Bronco's rosters. Therefore, injury "luck" is much more crucial for the Raider's success than the Broncos. Whether an important injury happens to the Raiders will determine a mediocre season from a successful one.