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Not sure if there was an existing thread that this issue should have been posted in. I really didn't want to create a whole new thread, but oh well...
Originally Published: February 9, 2012
Replacements for 10 aging stars
How soon will teams need replacements for Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, others?
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
The Ravens have to consider who will step in when Ray Lewis grabs a mike or headset.
There's a saying around the NFL that the game dictates when you leave, you don't get to make the decision for yourself. Injuries slow you down, speed fades and you can quickly go from the starting lineup to the cut list. Liz Merrill hits the subject today for us. But there are exceptions.
Now and then you see guys who seem to be able to play forever and really do need to decide when to go out on their own terms. What I've done below is picked out 10 players who are firmly in the "veteran" category and how their teams could approach looking for replacements, particularly in the upcoming draft. On the Urgency Meter, a 5 means there's a little time to work with or the position doesn't require a high pick. If it's a 1, the team needs to act fast. I'm sure there are more guys out there, but this is a glimpse.
Ray Lewis
Urgency Meter: 2
It's pretty incredible to think that Lewis will be entering his 17th NFL season this summer. 17th! I say that because if you watched Lewis this year, you saw a guy playing at a very high level for the most part. He's not quite as fleet as he once was, but his instincts are so superb that he can mask a lost step or two. He even holds up pretty well in coverage. My guess is that Lewis comes back for 2012, then hangs it up next offseason. In my first mock draft, I had the Ravens taking Vontaze Burfict out of Arizona State, so it's clear that I think there's some urgency to develop a linebacker who can step in for Lewis. It's not for the coming season, but I think the Ravens should be looking for a middle linebacker with one of their first three picks this year.
Brian Urlacher
Urgency Meter: 4
He's become such an icon at middle linebacker that people forget Urlacher played a sort of hybrid safety in Rocky Long's system at New Mexico, and that he actually got his initial reps at outside linebacker. Suffice to say, the move to the middle worked out. Urlacher is still playing at a high level but will be 34 this spring, and Chicago would be wise to add some depth at linebacker in the upcoming draft. I think they can wait a few rounds, however; I'd like to see them find a wideout (preferably with some size), another solid offensive lineman and a corner first.
Tony Gonzalez
Urgency Meter: 4
The meter would be higher for Gonzalez if adding depth at tight end was something you need to draft high to do. But you don't. Look around the league, and you'll see over and over that teams have been able to land quality (even start quality) tight ends well past Round 1. That said, I'm sure the Falcons are thinking that 2012 could be the final year for Gonzalez, and I'd expect them to look for a tight end in the draft. Dwayne Allen of Clemson is currently the top one on my board, but he could easily fall to the second round. I think defensive end, left tackle and cornerback are more pressing needs.
Reggie Wayne
Urgency Meter: 3
Wayne may not be back with the Colts next season, for reasons that go beyond walking away. His deal is up and he'll be free to go where he pleases. Plus, he may not want to stick around if there's a rebuild going on. Obviously, assuming Andrew Luck is the first pick, wide receiver can't be the most urgent need for the Colts. I'd like to see them target defensive tackle and find another corner before they look at receiving options.
Jeff Backus
Urgency Meter: 1
I think the Lions have wanted to add more talent to the offensive line for a couple of years, but found too much value at certain picks to pass on those selections. They simply have to upgrade at left tackle soon. Although you expect Backus to be around, given his ironman run of 176 straight starts, it's crucial that the Lions target a left tackle early. I could see a player like Mike Adams of Ohio State (a recent addition to the Big Board) falling to them in the first round. One of their first two picks has to target the O-line.
Casey Hampton
Urgency Meter: 2
Players like Hampton, the true 1-technique cloggers who can line up over center and just eat up blockers in the 3-4, are pretty hard to find, and Hampton has been a good one for a long time. I think the Steelers will be looking for help here pretty early on, and if a player like Dontari Poe of Memphis is sitting there when they pick, you could see them making the move. The Steelers are so good with defensive personnel, but this type of player is rare enough to find that it's hard to pass up when it's a true need.
Brian Dawkins
Urgency Meter: 4
Denver drafted at safety last year with Rahim Moore out of UCLA, and we know Champ Bailey is likely to move there at some point, so I don't think this is an urgent situation. I think they'll target cornerback first and only take a safety earlier if they find a lot of value. In fact, I put defensive tackle and wide receiver as bigger needs.
Justin Smith
Urgency Meter: 4
It's no slight to Smith to be on this list, but he'll turn 33 around Week 3 of the 2012 season and he's such a crucial player to San Francisco that they need to have suitable depth at the position. It's really more of a compliment -- he's so good that you don't want the defense to experience a massive drop-off in his absence. Still, it's not a top need for the Niners; I'd put wide receiver, another piece in the secondary and another offensive lineman as greater needs.
Charles Woodson
Urgency Meter: 2
He was very good in 2011, something we're used to saying, but Woodson will turn 36 during the 2012 season and may not want to play forever, even if he looks as if he could. There's no question that the Packers should look for pieces in the secondary during the draft, as early as Round 1 if the value is there. I'd like to see them help the secondary first by adding a quality pass-rusher. The pass rush fell off big-time this past season and it must be addressed early.
Santana Moss
Urgency Meter: 3
He hasn't really slowed down, but Moss will be 33 to start the 2012 season and it's pretty clear to everybody that Washington needs to add better options in the passing game. Moss may have a few more good seasons left, but if he's not around, a weak unit becomes pretty barren, so I expect the Skins to look for help within the first few rounds of the draft. However, they could also look for a big name in a potentially deep free agent class at wide receiver.
Mel Kiper has been the premier name in NFL draft prospect evaluations for more than three decades. He started putting out his annual draft guides in 1978 and started contributing to ESPN as an analyst in 1984. For more from Mel, check out his annual draft publications or his home page. He can also be found on Twitter.
Originally Published: February 9, 2012
Replacements for 10 aging stars
How soon will teams need replacements for Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, others?
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
The Ravens have to consider who will step in when Ray Lewis grabs a mike or headset.
There's a saying around the NFL that the game dictates when you leave, you don't get to make the decision for yourself. Injuries slow you down, speed fades and you can quickly go from the starting lineup to the cut list. Liz Merrill hits the subject today for us. But there are exceptions.
Now and then you see guys who seem to be able to play forever and really do need to decide when to go out on their own terms. What I've done below is picked out 10 players who are firmly in the "veteran" category and how their teams could approach looking for replacements, particularly in the upcoming draft. On the Urgency Meter, a 5 means there's a little time to work with or the position doesn't require a high pick. If it's a 1, the team needs to act fast. I'm sure there are more guys out there, but this is a glimpse.
Ray Lewis
Urgency Meter: 2
It's pretty incredible to think that Lewis will be entering his 17th NFL season this summer. 17th! I say that because if you watched Lewis this year, you saw a guy playing at a very high level for the most part. He's not quite as fleet as he once was, but his instincts are so superb that he can mask a lost step or two. He even holds up pretty well in coverage. My guess is that Lewis comes back for 2012, then hangs it up next offseason. In my first mock draft, I had the Ravens taking Vontaze Burfict out of Arizona State, so it's clear that I think there's some urgency to develop a linebacker who can step in for Lewis. It's not for the coming season, but I think the Ravens should be looking for a middle linebacker with one of their first three picks this year.
Brian Urlacher
Urgency Meter: 4
He's become such an icon at middle linebacker that people forget Urlacher played a sort of hybrid safety in Rocky Long's system at New Mexico, and that he actually got his initial reps at outside linebacker. Suffice to say, the move to the middle worked out. Urlacher is still playing at a high level but will be 34 this spring, and Chicago would be wise to add some depth at linebacker in the upcoming draft. I think they can wait a few rounds, however; I'd like to see them find a wideout (preferably with some size), another solid offensive lineman and a corner first.
Tony Gonzalez
Urgency Meter: 4
The meter would be higher for Gonzalez if adding depth at tight end was something you need to draft high to do. But you don't. Look around the league, and you'll see over and over that teams have been able to land quality (even start quality) tight ends well past Round 1. That said, I'm sure the Falcons are thinking that 2012 could be the final year for Gonzalez, and I'd expect them to look for a tight end in the draft. Dwayne Allen of Clemson is currently the top one on my board, but he could easily fall to the second round. I think defensive end, left tackle and cornerback are more pressing needs.
Reggie Wayne
Urgency Meter: 3
Wayne may not be back with the Colts next season, for reasons that go beyond walking away. His deal is up and he'll be free to go where he pleases. Plus, he may not want to stick around if there's a rebuild going on. Obviously, assuming Andrew Luck is the first pick, wide receiver can't be the most urgent need for the Colts. I'd like to see them target defensive tackle and find another corner before they look at receiving options.
Jeff Backus
Urgency Meter: 1
I think the Lions have wanted to add more talent to the offensive line for a couple of years, but found too much value at certain picks to pass on those selections. They simply have to upgrade at left tackle soon. Although you expect Backus to be around, given his ironman run of 176 straight starts, it's crucial that the Lions target a left tackle early. I could see a player like Mike Adams of Ohio State (a recent addition to the Big Board) falling to them in the first round. One of their first two picks has to target the O-line.
Casey Hampton
Urgency Meter: 2
Players like Hampton, the true 1-technique cloggers who can line up over center and just eat up blockers in the 3-4, are pretty hard to find, and Hampton has been a good one for a long time. I think the Steelers will be looking for help here pretty early on, and if a player like Dontari Poe of Memphis is sitting there when they pick, you could see them making the move. The Steelers are so good with defensive personnel, but this type of player is rare enough to find that it's hard to pass up when it's a true need.
Brian Dawkins
Urgency Meter: 4
Denver drafted at safety last year with Rahim Moore out of UCLA, and we know Champ Bailey is likely to move there at some point, so I don't think this is an urgent situation. I think they'll target cornerback first and only take a safety earlier if they find a lot of value. In fact, I put defensive tackle and wide receiver as bigger needs.
Justin Smith
Urgency Meter: 4
It's no slight to Smith to be on this list, but he'll turn 33 around Week 3 of the 2012 season and he's such a crucial player to San Francisco that they need to have suitable depth at the position. It's really more of a compliment -- he's so good that you don't want the defense to experience a massive drop-off in his absence. Still, it's not a top need for the Niners; I'd put wide receiver, another piece in the secondary and another offensive lineman as greater needs.
Charles Woodson
Urgency Meter: 2
He was very good in 2011, something we're used to saying, but Woodson will turn 36 during the 2012 season and may not want to play forever, even if he looks as if he could. There's no question that the Packers should look for pieces in the secondary during the draft, as early as Round 1 if the value is there. I'd like to see them help the secondary first by adding a quality pass-rusher. The pass rush fell off big-time this past season and it must be addressed early.
Santana Moss
Urgency Meter: 3
He hasn't really slowed down, but Moss will be 33 to start the 2012 season and it's pretty clear to everybody that Washington needs to add better options in the passing game. Moss may have a few more good seasons left, but if he's not around, a weak unit becomes pretty barren, so I expect the Skins to look for help within the first few rounds of the draft. However, they could also look for a big name in a potentially deep free agent class at wide receiver.
Mel Kiper has been the premier name in NFL draft prospect evaluations for more than three decades. He started putting out his annual draft guides in 1978 and started contributing to ESPN as an analyst in 1984. For more from Mel, check out his annual draft publications or his home page. He can also be found on Twitter.
