The option play

[JohnU]

Reds cut bait on Ludwick and Hannahan, sent Soto to AAA.

That means at least 2 players will be replaced.

Ludwick probably should not have been re-signed in the first place before he hurt his shoulder and he should have been released after that happened, as cruel as it is. The guy isn't going to hit again.

Hannahan's shoulder didn't have any effect other than it limited him to 1st base, which really wasn't useful.

Now we have the Schumaker shoulder to contend with, the Bailey flexor and whatever is wrong with Votto and Latos and Bruce and Marshall and whoever else trips over the first-base bag.

All signs point to a trade but I can't say for sure if Price and Jocketty are ready to unload a pitcher.

 

[JohnU]

Dang, we're gonna lose Ramon Santiago too.

Woe is us.

Looks like we can go down the list of Latin-speaking utility infielders and fairly predict who will be playing 2nd base next year for the Reds.

Ronny Cedeno?

 

[HammerDown]

Ryan Ludwick will be back with the Padres next season. I already know it. Probably something reasonable though; maybe 4-5 yrs at $6M per?

 

[JohnU]

Luddy can't hit the long ball anymore and he knows it. Maybe he guesses he can adjust and hit some gappers. I would not agree that he can achieve that.
I actually liked him as a player, maybe more than some others did. Always thought he was 'clutch' ... as if that played into the team's success all that much.

 

[JohnU]

I would also assume that Kris Negron has made the team.

 

[JohnU]

Walt hinting on Twitter that a starting pitcher might be on the block.
We can speculate on who that might be ... I'd gamble that it's Latos.
But Latos won't cost as much as Cueto, so maybe JC is going to be the one.
Sources are saying Nori Aoki might be a steal. I'd agree with that.

 

[Redsfan1507]

You know Latos or Cueto would get a guy we've heard of, but I think they'll deal Simon. He's the most likely to not repeat, and wasn't in the starting plan to begin with. They'll cut bait on a LF and sign a low risk low reward guy...again. It's what they do. To be honest, if they contend, they'll probably find money for Cueto, and maybe Latos. If not, they can always deal them at the deadline for a baloney sandwich and a promise of chips. Besides, how much worse can Yorman Rodriguez be than Luddy ? LF didnt lose it for the Reds last year. All the Reds big contract players all decided to take a year off. That's what beat the Reds. Coincidence ? Probably...if it's a trend, this team will be both broke and hopeless.

 

[JohnU]

I agree, LF was the whipping boy for the Reds problems.
The entire offense hit like a shortstop, except the shortstop, who hit like the LF.
There isn't much in the way of a 'name' guy the Reds could get, unless they load up a starter and get a bunch of AA hotshots in return.
Simon would be an appealing pitcher for a lot of teams. All in all, he's proven he can get people out.
Yorman is another example of a guy who got stuck in the system because the Reds want to keep hiring backup players for 2-year deals ... all the while letting their talent rot away in the minors.
Nefi Soto might be able to hit but given that there is no coaching at the top level anyhow, he'd never learn to hit. So there he went.

I think we will see Barnhart with the big club all year and maybe either Corcino or Villarreal. I am not high on either one of those guys overall, but they deserve a real chance.
It's cheaper and smarter than signing a bunch of other relief pitchers who aren't better than Ondruisek or Hoover.
Actually, Hoover is a pretty good pitcher. He just lost it between the ears.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The list of FA OF is underwhelming. Melky Cabrera probably isn't anyone's preferred answer. Aoki's upside is behind him, and he's a better platoon player than everyday guy, IMO. I just imagine a 3 year deal at $30 M as a "normal" FA offer for a guy like that, and always believe there have to be better answers 2 years down the road at far less money. I could understand 1 year deals better, but the market always beats more it seems.

I think the Reds should make a move or two, but are so dependant on previous investments in Votto, Bruce, Bailey and Phillips that their world is limited by the gravity of their contracts. Chapman is going to get paid top dollar soon, with the risk that they're wasting him for save situations in what could be a non-playoff team. They need a lefty starting pitcher, and no one obtainable out there matches his metrics. I always view that overlooked option as oblivious to the obvious.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Barnhart would make more sense if Pena and/or Mesoraco had done position flexibility. You have to hope Votto plays 150 games, so those 12 games with Pena at 1b don't lend for many AB's. I'd like to see Pena play some 3b ( Frazier can play LF) and possibly see if Mesoraco could pretend to be an OF 1 game every 2 weeks or so. I don't want to see many lineups with Barnhart, Cozart, a pitcher, and a struggling OF with guys like Mesoraco and Pena getting platoon rest on the bench. We'll see, but I doubt the Reds ability to react that way.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Meanwhile, crazy Joe Maddon is talking World Series with the Cubs. Theo adds another PR piece to his dream of getting the "respect of his peers" by building a team from clay from Wrigley and expectorate from Theo's dip. I imagine the powers that be in Chicago will either give Theo another year to allow Maddon to rebuild Starlin Castro into a hustle player (not holding my breath waiting on that) and all those minor league heros to mature, or they'll ask Theo to do what he's done before and sign a couple mega-millions free agents like Lester and Scherzer, and maybe Melky. Then all Theo and Co. need is a little Popeyes and Old Style to blame the collapse on.

Even though Theo escaped the ALE, his old nemisis NYY GM Brian Cashman may still drag him under in the bidding war if he goes that direction. A-Roid is back to get his paycheck, and all the Yankee heros are gone. They have to buy some new ones or lose market to the lowly Mets. That isn't happening if they can prevent it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals wound up with a big time free agent pitcher this winter. I expect the Brewers to do what they do-add a hitter that can't field, and get rid of one of their better pitchers. Pittsburg, like our Reds, have to figure out how to win always one or two players short of a front runner.

 

[JohnU]

The oddity of baseball over 162 is that spread out over 6 months, you get bizarre results.
Winning 13 games a month should normally cost the manager his job. Winning 15 games a month, and he gets a 3-year extension.
Considering the disaster that Price had to work with, winning 13 games a month was probably not too bad but it suggests that the bits and pieces of talent are probably enough to make the team a contender.
If they show up in uniform on game day.
Most of the teams that made post-season don't have more talent than the Reds, but they have more talent in different spots.
Which matters.
Without exploring that in detail, Walt and Price have a few options this winter. I think the rotation can take a bit of a hit ... but I am wary of the slugging LF. What the Reds need is a .300 hitter in the batting order, not a whiff king who can maybe hit one home run every 6 days.
The ongoing belief that GABP is a hitter's park is bullshit. It's a HR ballpark and it's not even that if pitchers don't throw fly balls. Otherwise, it's a ballpark.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Unfortunately, these guys factor more than just doing their job into the decision making process. If fans would still buy tickets, they might have passed on offering Votto a quarter billion, for example. Now, with a bad season behind them, a new manager to substantiate, and done serious guaranteed cash already spent, they're in a situation where they probably have to do something to look like they aren't complacent. The Cubs are going to try to sign several players, the Cardinals will probably add, and the division as a whole is getting a lot closer talent wise. The Reds problem truly was health and production if their highest paid guys ladt year, and that's a real issue...not likely they'll be able to eat those contracts, or get someone else to take them- so they have to deal around the margins of the roster, and hope the core bounces back.

Simon isn't a bad pitcher, but he's not a top trade piece either. Anyone they shed to save cash like Latos, Cueto or Chapman can't be replaced from existing talent, creating another hole. They've tied their hands with Chapman, trading off Broxton. There really is no other ready closer unless you're willing to dedicate the spot to a low or no history guy. They may get by with a rookie 5th starter, so Simon looks likely to be the biggest trade option. He isn't going to bring a guy that is going to suddenly sell season tickets, though. They need a couple bullpen arms and a surprise cheap left fielder - maybe Yorman Rodriguez- and some
assemblance of Votto,Bruce and Phillips back at expected production. If they can keep the rotation healthy, they can win enough to make it interesting. If Votto and Bruce are absent, this team is sunk, regardless if what they do this winter, IMO.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Rockies are going to dangle Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but will want full value like these guys are going to play full seasons, and other than the Yankees, Dodgers, or other team with funds to lose, I don't think that's likely. Hanley Ramirez is a free agent. Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Cruz and Victor Martinez are all going to make some big bucks. Other than those guys, not much out there. It does look like a recipe for more trades than recently normal.

 

[JohnU]

Cincy could take a swing at Aoki. He's probably not a bad piece to add if the idea is that the No. 2 spot in the order needs fixing. I'd gamble that Walt will attach some importance to that after playing cornbread muffins with it since 2009.
The problem is that the Reds have devoted way too much of their offense to Votto. The holes in Bill Hamilton's game were obvious and when that began to manifest itself, and then the team realized it had nobody on base and nobody to drive them in, they pitched around Frazier just enough to make Bruce lose his grip on reality.
To be honest, any team that didn't beat the Reds last year should have been laughed out of town.
I'm still in the group that thinks any decent MLB pitcher can close out a game. If not, he should be pitching in Japan or Mexico.
That means getting 6 outs.
A couple of things I will be interested in seeing:

If Leake learns another pitch.
If Hamilton really learns to bunt.
I would say I'd like to see if Bruce has learned to hit, but that's folly.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I find two things odd about Jocketty's statement that the Reds would pursue Aoki or Morse...he said he preferred free agents not traded, because you don't have to give up talent to get them...

1. That he mentioned them by name publically, letting other teams know, probably inflating their ultimate salary....making me skeptical he wants to sign them, just running up the price for those who do.

2. Where's he getting the endless supply of cash ? No wonder Phillips thinks he got short changed ( I don't agree, but a lot of millions being thrown around since BP's contract). Is he planning to sign Cueto, Latos, Chapman, etc. if not, he IS trading talent to get them.

....my feelings- Aoki makes more sense considering he can also play D...but I can't see either signing with the Reds unless they outbid everyone else. Can they ? Should they ?

 

[Redsfan1507]

You know- Bruce is one of those guys that has massive capability, it's not that he can't hit....it's that he's too ADD to do it consistently. His entire approach says Zero Focus. He fidgits. He guesses. His eyes are all over the place. He swings indescriminantly at where he thinks the ball is going to be, often instead of where it really is.

The NL has realized you don't have to throw strikes to get Jay Bruce out. Until he changes that fact, he's going to have trouble.

 

[JohnU]

Aoki makes sense if he wants it to make sense. He can play left field for anybody and his ability to move runners makes him an automatic fit for any National League team. In the AL, he's a perfect DH.
KC obviously saw him as a bit of a defensive liability in the post-season run but ... hell, so is Ludwick, Old McDonald, Nix, Dickerson, Dewey, Huey, Louie and the Beastie Boyz, all of whom have played LF in the Grand Old Ball Park by the River.
Morse is not the guy I want for this Reds offense. He is an occasional bopper who can play first base. But Cincy needs speed and a .287 hitter in the lineup, not another guy who can swat one out every 7 days and leave 41 guys on base over the same period.
Yeah, eventually Walt will have to trade some talent to get some talent. He can't keep Cueto, Latos and Chapman. He is stuck with Bailey. No clue on Simon. Leake seems likely to want to stay in Cincy.
Other players: I'd say Bruce isn't likely to be a lifetime Red. I think he annoyed a lot of fans this year and he may not be as happy in Wiedemann Land now. Self-imposed, but real all the same. Boos tend to cross generational gaps.
With Cozart and Frazier, there's a no-return as well. Both are high 20s, going on low 30s. Do you sign them long-term? What's Frazier worth over the next 5 years? Cozart is just a good shortstop. Necessary, not the Fort Knox of a team.
As a long-term experiment, I'd get Mesoraco some throws from third base, let Frazier go to LF and give Barnhart the job behind the plate -- at least once a week. Will that work? Flexibility always works.
Barnhart is a beast. I like his game.
And Phillips just needs to shut up and play ball. He can blame his agent for his salary. Nobody else much cares.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I noticed Bruce pretty much started ignoring fans in the moon deck in RF about August. He used to always toss a warmup ball to a kid there, but just stopped. I never really noticed many boos, but can't explain why he just stopped interacting with fans either.

I wasn't happy with Bruce's production, but he was out there every day- as compared to Votto, who wasn't. I don't see Bruce as a .280 hitter in this lifetime, but I do think he's better than he showed last year. His HR production is needed on this team, but he needs to hit around .250 to make it palitable.

 

[JohnU]

Fans want to see Bruce hit one in the river. that's about all. But he has to reach first base more often. His swing is pathetic and anybody who watches him "hit" can tell it. What he does to fix that depends partly on his body. I would suggest he close up his stance, but that takes away his pull power.
Of course, so does the shift.
As for his appeal to the fans, everything is in place. He's personable, nice dressed, clean cut ... the guy you would let your daughter date. I think the frustration with Bruce was that he WAS on the field, and that the team was still losing.
It was hard to blame Votto for that.