The Houston Rockets Thread

[MHSL82]

I've started this thread because my friends and family are from Taiwan (not me), where Jeremy Lin is from, so I follow the Rockets, too. I don't root for them to win over the Jazz and would not be happy if they took our playoff spot, but otherwise, I follow them.

I originally had these posts in the Around the League Thread, but it turned out to have so many posts, I made this into a new thread...

 

[MHSL82]

I don't mind athletes talking about moves -- I like hearing the various Knicks talk about the decision not to resign Lin...

The thing that bugged me about the Lin talk was how people acted like only his proposed contract was going to effect the cap. If Carmelo's contract is, for illustration purposes only, say, 20% of the cap, then he's 20% responsible for the luxury cap hit. I understand New York not wanting the hit, but timing of the signing does not make Lin the culprit in cap excess, regardless of whether Anthony is worth the amount he is paid and not Lin. If Lin signed first and then Carmelo, would Carmelo get all the blame? Perhaps, I guess, but it would be intellectually lazy. Blame the organization for the whole cap amount, I know the previous management spent a lot.

Then, I didn't like how some acted like it was Lin's fault. New York didn't offer him a contract - they told him to test the market, that they'd match, and wanted to have the market give him little and they would come in like a knight in shining armor and give a little more than a little. His market, given China and Taiwan's market, was higher than they gave him credit for. While that doesn't mean they must sign him, that might help alleviate some financial problems. Plus, Lin was better than some thought, not as good as Linsanity, per se, and he had his flaws, I just read a lot of exaggerations to rationalize him not being resigned.

What I also didn't like was Stephen A. Smith's constant misinterpretation of what Lin said about last year's playoff's availability. Lin said he was 80% to being the minimal health to play. Smith said that Lin said he was 80% healthy. TOTALLY different things. Let's say you have to be 70% healthy to play. If he's 80% there, he's 56% healthy. If the percent healthy to play is less than 70%, then obviously he might have been less than 50% healthy. It's math. Stephen A. Smith never acknowledged that he misinterpreted the statement, insisting that it was heart - that his teammates were battling and he was nursing his injury, waiting for his big contract.

 

[nuraman00]

The thing that bugged me about the Lin talk was how people acted like only his proposed contract was going to effect the cap. If Carmelo's contract is, for illustration purposes only, say, 20% of the cap, then he's 20% responsible for the luxury cap hit. I understand New York not wanting the hit, but timing of the signing does not make Lin the culprit in cap excess, regardless of whether Anthony is worth the amount he is paid and not Lin. If Lin signed first and then Carmelo, would Carmelo get all the blame? Perhaps, I guess, but it would be intellectually lazy. Blame the organization for the whole cap amount, I know the previous management spent a lot.

Then, I didn't like how some acted like it was Lin's fault. New York didn't offer him a contract - they told him to test the market, that they'd match, and wanted to have the market give him little and they would come in like a knight in shining armor and give a little more than a little. His market, given China and Taiwan's market, was higher than they gave him credit for. While that doesn't mean they must sign him, that might help alleviate some financial problems. Plus, Lin was better than some thought, not as good as Linsanity, per se, and he had his flaws, I just read a lot of exaggerations to rationalize him not being resigned.

What I also didn't like was Stephen A. Smith's constant misinterpretation of what Lin said about last year's playoff's availability. Lin said he was 80% to being the minimal health to play. Smith said that Lin said he was 80% healthy. TOTALLY different things. Let's say you have to be 70% healthy to play. If he's 80% there, he's 56% healthy. If the percent healthy to play is less than 70%, then obviously he might have been less than 50% healthy. It's math. Stephen A. Smith never acknowledged that he misinterpreted the statement, insisting that it was heart - that his teammates were battling and he was nursing his injury, waiting for his big contract.

Thanks.

I think the discussion about Lin's contract affecting the luxury tax, is more because there's not a consensus as to whether Lin is "worth" his contract.

I think it's more accepted that Carmelo is worth his contract, therefore he gets less blame.

It's the players whose worth is more questionable relative to their contract, that get the blame.

Carmelo can still be worth a max contract, but still have some things questioned about him (leadership, etc.)

I don't blame New York or Lin. New York didn't believe Lin was so unique and so much the answer to their problems that they wanted him regardless of the cost. They felt they had some alternatives, and therefore pursued Felton and Kidd. From what I have read, they pursued Felton even before Lin signed an offer sheet with Houston. New York management probably asked themselves "Is signing Lin head and shoulders above signing Felton and Kidd?" They answered "no".

And Lin signed an offer sheet, which eventually became a reality, with a team that did believe in him.

 

[MHSL82]

Thanks.

I think the discussion about Lin's contract affecting the luxury tax, is more because there's not a consensus as to whether Lin is "worth" his contract.

I think it's more accepted that Carmelo is worth his contract, therefore he gets less blame.

It's the players whose worth is more questionable relative to their contract, that get the blame.

Carmelo can still be worth a max contract, but still have some things questioned about him (leadership, etc.)

I don't blame New York or Lin. New York didn't believe Lin was so unique and so much the answer to their problems that they wanted him regardless of the cost. They felt they had some alternatives, and therefore pursued Felton and Kidd. From what I have read, they pursued Felton even before Lin signed an offer sheet with Houston. New York management probably asked themselves "Is signing Lin head and shoulders above signing Felton and Kidd?" They answered "no".

And Lin signed an offer sheet, which eventually became a reality, with a team that did believe in him.

In your opinion, how is this year's team different than last year style-wise? How much does Kidd help or hurt Felton's stats? How much did Felton having played in New York before affect this? How much did Felton's Portland stats come into play? Felton had half the PER as Lin did last year, but Lin got a chunk of that from the Linsanity period in which New York did not expect to continue, especially with a different coach, some stars coming back, and people game-planning against Lin. Also, playing in Portland effects your production, especially when a field general. Jeremy's PER on the Knicks is higher than Felton's PER this year, but as said before, the factors above apply, too.

Now, answer all those questions in your neighbor's opinion and then as Steve Carrell.

 

[nuraman00]

In your opinion, how is this year's team different than last year style-wise? How much does Kidd help or hurt Felton's stats? How much did Felton having played in New York before affect this? How much did Felton's Portland stats come into play? Felton had half the PER as Lin did last year, but Lin got a chunk of that from the Linsanity period in which New York did not expect to continue, especially with a different coach, some stars coming back, and people game-planning against Lin. Also, playing in Portland effects your production, especially when a field general. Jeremy's PER on the Knicks is higher than Felton's PER this year, but as said before, the factors above apply, too.

Now, answer all those questions in your neighbor's opinion and then as Steve Carrell.

New York had Felton before Felton went to NY, so they probably figured they'd get that guy back again, and not the Portland guy.

I also don't think Portand's version of Felton was that bad, he was still an ok defender. It's just his offense was bad, which happens sometimes. People focused more on his offense, especially because Portland wasn't winning. And Portland had been used to winning the past few years. When things are bad, it's easier to blame the newcomers (Felton, Crawford) than the GM.

 

[MHSL82]

I think the discussion about Lin's contract affecting the luxury tax, is more because there's not a consensus as to whether Lin is "worth" his contract.

I think it's more accepted that Carmelo is worth his contract, therefore he gets less blame.

It's the players whose worth is more questionable relative to their contract, that get the blame.

Carmelo can still be worth a max contract, but still have some things questioned about him (leadership, etc.)

I don't blame New York or Lin. New York didn't believe Lin was so unique and so much the answer to their problems that they wanted him regardless of the cost. They felt they had some alternatives, and therefore pursued Felton and Kidd. From what I have read, they pursued Felton even before Lin signed an offer sheet with Houston. New York management probably asked themselves "Is signing Lin head and shoulders above signing Felton and Kidd?" They answered "no".

And Lin signed an offer sheet, which eventually became a reality, with a team that did believe in him.

That's a feeling they have to go through, is that worth it? But, I have heard numerous people, journalists, analysts, sources with the team, say that Lin IS worth the 8.4 million a year - mainly talking about the future, as he's still young. The amount that gets people saying he's not worth it is the luxury tax - which would end up being a lot. So, I still think the blame for cap troubles should be proportional.

Here are the percentages:

1. Stoudemire 24.2%
2. Anthony 23.6%
3. Chandler 16.5%
4. Lin 10.3%
5. Everyone else 25.5% (<6% separately)

Lin is responsible for his contract and 10.3% of the luxury tax. Same for Carmelo and Stoudemire to their amounts. Amare and Melo and Chandler are worth more basketball wise than Lin. If they weren't in win-now mode, Kidd wouldn't be there, IMO. Or at least, they would have gone with Lin instead of Felton. So the reason why they didn't go with Lin was the growing pains of a young back-court. So, I'm fine with basketball reasons not to sign Lin, but money? Come on, that was exaggerated because it didn't take anyone else into account for the luxury cap and they overall would make that money back. Stephen A. Smith was the worst; Jalen Rose brought up the proportional blame - and blamed that on management.

The Knicks didn't want Lin. I would rather them have said that, though I don't expect them to. They could have offered him 5 and he might have taken it. Maybe 4. And sign Kidd. They told him to test the market and they were going to match - they either thought the market was too thin or didn't want him at all. Again, for basketball reasons, I'm content.

 

[MHSL82]

Broke my thread above into two, because this is not solely related to the Knicks or salary.

In what respects do you think Harden adds to Lin's game and what respects do you think he detracts, say from Lin plus average replacement? I don't just mean numbers - developmentally, leadership, etc. But numbers help (not specifically, just ballpark).

Do you think he would have gone to Houston if Harden was already there? Do you think Lin would have taken a big cut to stay in New York had he known? Do you think he would think it's better to go where he's wanted?

What are your thoughts about extending the length of contracts to lower the yearly amount (within reason)?

I know he was surprised by the contract not being matched, but after that, do you think he was surprised that Felton was there or already pursued before the deal?

How do you think Kidd and Lin would have done - not in comparison to Kidd and Felton.

Now, compare.

Would Kidd have resigned with Dallas or elsewhere if he hadn't known Lin was out? I guess, maybe he didn't know, but that had to be a factor - though he seems to be mentoring Felton anyway.

 

[nuraman00]

Broke my thread above into two, because this is not solely related to the Knicks or salary.

In what respects do you think Harden adds to Lin's game and what respects do you think he detracts, say from Lin plus average replacement? I don't just mean numbers - developmentally, leadership, etc. But numbers help (not specifically, just ballpark).

I don't know, I've only seen Houston once, and unfortunately it was during the Christmas game against Chicago, which was a super blowout, so I wasn't paying as much attention.

Do you think he would have gone to Houston if Harden was already there? Do you think Lin would have taken a big cut to stay in New York had he known? Do you think he would think it's better to go where he's wanted?

Lin would have gone to Houston regardless of who else was there.

Lin would not have taken a paycut. Players after their first contract typically go for the money so they can get some financial security. Especially a player like Lin who was a 2nd rounder.

It's better to go where you're wanted. However, organizations can tell you they're building around you one day, and then try to trade you the next day. That's the nature of sports.

What are your thoughts about extending the length of contracts to lower the yearly amount (within reason)?

I know he was surprised by the contract not being matched, but after that, do you think he was surprised that Felton was there or already pursued before the deal?

Prior to the 2005 CBA, it used to be 7 years if you resigned with your own team, 6 years for an outside team. (Sign-and-trades circumvented that).

From 2005 - 2011 CBA, it was 6 years and 5 years.

2011+ CBA: 5 years and 4 years.

Do you mean if a player had a choice of 3 years and X dollars or 4 years and Y dollars, with a greater total salary but lower yearly rate?

Some players would choose 3 years, as they could hit FA sooner.

Other players would choose 4 years, for the extra year of security.

As a player, I think I would like 3 years more, because if a situation doesn't turn out like I wanted, I can leave sooner. As a fan, I prefer the stability of watching a core grow together for more years.

I think Lin being surprised at not being matched, and Felton being pursued by the Knicks, go hand-in-hand. The latter was the reason for the former, so Lin was probably surprised by both related acts.

How do you think Kidd and Lin would have done - not in comparison to Kidd and Felton.

Now, compare.

Would Kidd have resigned with Dallas or elsewhere if he hadn't known Lin was out? I guess, maybe he didn't know, but that had to be a factor - though he seems to be mentoring Felton anyway.

Kidd and Lin would have been fine.

Kidd would not have resigned with Dallas, because Dallas didn't want him back, especially for 3 years. Dallas wanted short contracts, and they wanted to get younger. Mayo answered their needs.

Kidd would have signed with NYK independent of who the PG was, Lin or Felton. They gave him the years he wanted, and were a decent enough team.

 

[nuraman00]

That's a feeling they have to go through, is that worth it? But, I have heard numerous people, journalists, analysts, sources with the team, say that Lin IS worth the 8.4 million a year - mainly talking about the future, as he's still young. The amount that gets people saying he's not worth it is the luxury tax - which would end up being a lot. So, I still think the blame for cap troubles should be proportional.

Here are the percentages:

1. Stoudemire 24.2%
2. Anthony 23.6%
3. Chandler 16.5%
4. Lin 10.3%
5. Everyone else 25.5% (<6% separately)

Lin is responsible for his contract and 10.3% of the luxury tax. Same for Carmelo and Stoudemire to their amounts. Amare and Melo and Chandler are worth more basketball wise than Lin. If they weren't in win-now mode, Kidd wouldn't be there, IMO. Or at least, they would have gone with Lin instead of Felton. So the reason why they didn't go with Lin was the growing pains of a young back-court. So, I'm fine with basketball reasons not to sign Lin, but money? Come on, that was exaggerated because it didn't take anyone else into account for the luxury cap and they overall would make that money back. Stephen A. Smith was the worst; Jalen Rose brought up the proportional blame - and blamed that on management.

The Knicks didn't want Lin. I would rather them have said that, though I don't expect them to. They could have offered him 5 and he might have taken it. Maybe 4. And sign Kidd. They told him to test the market and they were going to match - they either thought the market was too thin or didn't want him at all. Again, for basketball reasons, I'm content.

To me, one has to either think Lin is worth his contract, or not worth it, independent of luxury tax implications.

If he is worth his contract and you think you'll have a good team, then the luxury tax doesn't matter, because the winning will pay for the luxury tax. Especially in NY, when they make a lot of money because of TV deals, even if they're not winning.

Also, sometimes asking a player to test the market is just a preventative measure to keep one's own team from bidding higher than what others can offer.

Example: The Kings resigned Chris Webber for $127M in 2001. The highest another team could have offered was $99M.

If the Kings wanted to, they could have said find another offer (say it's $99M), and we'll match it.

However, you also don't want to make a superstar feel like he's not wanted as much. You want to make him feel like you want him more than another team.

You also want a player to be happy with his contract. Sam Cassell, for example, hated his contract with the Nets, because it was right before the 1999 CBA when the players got better rates. And he has signed to a 6 year deal (which was eventually extended), so he couldn't get out of it. He was playing like an All-Star, but getting paid $4M for several years.



I used to dislike how the Kings had paid Webber that much more than they mathematically needed to, but now I think it was ok. You want to keep him happy, and you need to resign him. Plus, I now think that superstars are underpaid, and it's the middle-of-the-pack guys that are overpaid.

 

[MHSL82]

It's bleacher report, so I don't give it much cred, but posting an opinion. Skip it if you want, because I didn't even read the whole thing.

Why Jeremy Lin Would've Became an NBA All-Star as a New York Knick | Bleacher Report

 

[nuraman00]

It's bleacher report, so I don't give it much cred, but posting an opinion. Skip it if you want, because I didn't even read the whole thing.

Why Jeremy Lin Would've Became an NBA All-Star as a New York Knick | Bleacher Report

I skimmed it.

D'Antoni is a better coach than Woodson.

Lin probably wouldn't have had his stats good enough to be selected an All-Star by the coach. Nor would he have been voted ahead of Wade or Rondo or Rose.

Holiday probably would have been more of a coaches pick than Lin, even if Lin played a little better in NY.

 

[MHSL82]

Lin probably wouldn't have had his stats good enough to be selected an All-Star by the coach. Nor would he have been voted ahead of Wade or Rondo or Rose.

True, he would have received a good number of fan votes, more than Felton, considering his votes from Taiwan and China. His numbers, IMO, would be better than they are this year, because he wouldn't have been incorrectly used as a pick and pop shooter.

He's doing much better now that they've apparently figured out a role for him with Harden. 16.4 and 7.4 over the last 5. 16.4 and 6.7 over 10 - but that was inflated by his 38 when Harden was injured. The 5 games were not. The bigger difference is that he's shooting 54.1% and 51.7 over the last 5 and 10 respectively. That means he's driving to the basket more nowadays and picking better shots - though he's not shooting well from 3-PT line and shooting those too many - I thought this was a product of the spot up shooting they wanted, as opposed to what he did in New York, but he averages the same number of attempts in 36 minutes as last year from behind the 3-PT line. Perhaps different flow of offense and shooting.

I watched the games against the Jazz, the first one he was a decoy, sitting still, waiting - not good for his game. Lately, he brings the ball up the court and handles more - good to see that McHale is adjusting.

 

[MHSL82]

D'Antoni is a better coach than Woodson.

True, the author talked about Woodson's offense, as opposed to coaching overall. But even then, I think he's wrong. Not sure how much of Nash was due to D'Antoni and how much it was the reverse. If D'Antoni helped Nash more, than he probably helped Lin more, and thus, Woodson would inhibit - then again, Woodson would have had an entire offseason to work on it with him and the team.

 

[nuraman00]

Part of my comments about Woodson refer to his Atlanta tenure. I really liked the way Atlanta played in the 2009-2010 regular season. But in the playoffs, they weren't that good.

Atlanta was much more compelling and competitive in 2011 with Larry Drew, beating Orlando as the road series team, and playing a good series with Chicago. Then in 2012, they still played pretty well against Boston, even though they lost while having homecourt. I thought the difference was more about how Rondo was ready to lead a team now, vs. Teague, who was just in his first year as a full-time starter. Rondo was like the veteran to Teague.

Jon Barry, however, had wanted Atlanta to be blown up even before the playoffs started. He said it was an indictment to how nobody took Atlanta seriously if they had homecourt yet were still not the favorites against Boston. He said that core just hadn't proven to work.

We'll see what Atlanta does now, but they look good again in the regular season.

So I thought Drew just got more out of Atlanta in the playoffs than Woodson did.

 

[MHSL82]

Houston Rockets coming together with James Harden and Jeremy Lin

I have ESPN the magazine, but the insider is not working still. I need to call them so I don't keep bugging you, but if you have it, could you post this? Thank you.

 

[nuraman00]

Houston Rockets coming together with James Harden and Jeremy Lin

When Tom Haberstroh used Per Diem to lobby for the Houston Rockets to bench Jeremy Lin two weeks ago, the Rockets were a game below .500, having lost four of their previous six outings. Since then, Houston has emerged as one of the league's hottest teams, winning five in a row before stumbling against last year's Western Conference finalists (San Antonio and Oklahoma City) during a difficult back-to-back over the weekend. That's not entirely a coincidence.

Although the Rockets never took an action so bold as benching Lin, they've been able to reap some of the same benefits by simply staggering his minutes with those of star teammate James Harden, a process that began earlier in December but only fully took root late in the month. During Friday's game against the Spurs, one of Houston's starting guards was on the court for all 48 minutes, the first time that has happened all month. Garbage time is partially to blame; in three of the last five Rockets games, either Harden or Lin played throughout the first three quarters, but the two guards watched the end of blowouts together from the bench.

Despite the influence of lopsided games, the numbers show how Kevin McHale has managed his backcourt differently during the last two weeks as compared to the rest of the season. The percentage of the team's minutes the two players have played together is down, but both have played more on their own. According to NBA.com/Stats, Lin has gone from playing about 40 percent of the minutes Harden rests through Dec. 16 to nearly 60 percent since then.

But that's not the real story. Ultimately, how McHale staggers his rotation makes only a small difference because Harden averages nearly 40 minutes per game. To succeed in Houston, Lin had to stop fearing the Beard's presence. That's the impressive thing about the last two weeks. Suddenly Lin's stat line no longer shows the same extreme splits depending on whether Harden is on the court or off it. Compare his performance playing with Harden through Dec. 16 -- the same figures that appeared in this column then -- and from Dec. 17 onward.

Lin Playing With Harden, Playing Without
Through Dec. 16 Since Dec. 17
Stat
PTS 10.7 18.2
AST 6.5 7.3
REB 4.3 3.6
TS% 46.5 62.5
USG%17.0 22.5
PER 12.1 19.0

Source: NBA.com's StatsCube

To put the magnitude of Lin's improvement into context, consider that his 46.5 percent true shooting percentage (TS%) with Harden through Dec. 16 would rank 281st among regular players. His 62.5 percent TS% since then? That would put him in the league's top 20.

Not only is Lin shooting far more effectively, he's also getting more opportunities to score. In part, this surely reflects that Harden and Lin are becoming more comfortable with each other. After all, the Kim Kardashian-Kanye West pregnancy (12 weeks) is older than their partnership (nine). When they started the Rockets' season opener, it was the first game the two guards had played together -- Harden had been traded to Houston only days earlier. With limited practice time during the regular season, Harden and Lin have had to learn each other's tendencies on the fly.

Beyond that, McHale and the Houston coaching staff have tweaked the offense to put Lin in situations to maximize his talents as a creator. Because Harden is dangerous as an outside shooter and Lin is not, the Rockets may be better off as a team with Lin running pick-and-rolls and Harden spotting up. So over the last couple of weeks, Lin has often initiated possessions with a high pick-and-roll. If that doesn't translate into a shot, Harden is more likely to get the basketball with the shot clock running down.

The other adjustment should be familiar to anyone who has watched the Miami Heat deal with a similar issue involving stars LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Similar to what Miami does at times, Houston has made defenses account for both Lin and Harden by putting them into occasional pick-and-rolls together. The Lakers used a similar 1-2 pick-and-roll to set up Derek Fisher's winning score during Game 3 of the 2009 NBA Finals, and Orlando made extensive use of the same play when Vince Carter was on the roster.

Using Harden as a screener has a couple of advantages. It puts a guard in the unfamiliar position of defending the roll man. And since Harden is a threat from anywhere on the court, teams can't leave him to commit a second defender on Lin. So either Lin gets a relatively clear path to the basket or the defense has to switch, putting a smaller player on Harden and giving him the opportunity to post up.

Thanks to these changes and Lin's aggressiveness attacking hard closeouts on the perimeter, more than half of his shot attempts with Harden on the floor over the last two weeks have come in the restricted area -- higher than his rate last season in New York, or with Harden on the bench this year.
Other factors have worked in Lin's favor over the last two weeks. The Rockets have pushed the pace lately; ESPN Stats & Info noted that Saturday's loss to Oklahoma City featured more possessions than any regulation NBA game in the last five years. That has created opportunities for Lin to freelance in the open court, and his fast-break points have gone from 5.1 per 36 minutes to 7.5 over the last two weeks. The tempo is up partly because Houston replaced injured starting power forward Patrick Patterson with more small ball, moving Marcus Morris into the starting lineup and sliding small forward Chandler Parsons down to the 4 at times. Those players offer better outside shooting and more spacing from the position, clearing driving lanes for Lin.

Regardless of the reasons, the last seven games have shown that Harden and Lin can excel at the same time. The Rockets' offense has been the beneficiary: Lin's scoring has fueled the recent surge that has pushed the team to sixth in the Hollinger Power Rankings and 10th in the league in offensive rating as of Dec. 16; Houston ranks third since then.

Last weekend showed the Rockets still have too many holes to compete with the West's best teams on a regular basis, but their guard play is good enough to make a playoff trip likely in what figured to be a rebuilding season. Given that Houston has one of the NBA's three youngest rotations and that Lin and Harden are both locked up through 2015, the future is bright now that the two guards are shining together.

 

[MHSL82]

Houston Rockets coming together with James Harden and Jeremy Lin

Thanks, I posted it here for you in case you had any comment on it, it would be easier to quote.

 

[nuraman00]

Thanks, I posted it here for you in case you had any comment on it, it would be easier to quote.

I will, once I read it.

I have a lot of catching up to do, even for me (someone who spends a lot of time on message board).

There's a Tyreke Evans insider article in my mail box from 2-3 months ago, that I still haven't read, lol.

There's those Phantom of the Opera clips you posted.

There's the 2nd Steve Martin dentist video. (I think you originally posted one, but a few mins later, I saw a 2nd one. Haven't seen the 2nd one yet.)

 

[nuraman00]

To put the magnitude of Lin's improvement into context, consider that his 46.5 percent true shooting percentage (TS%) with Harden through Dec. 16 would rank 281st among regular players. His 62.5 percent TS% since then? That would put him in the league's top 20.

Even taking into account the staggering of minutes, and increased familiarity with each other, I'm still surprised Lin's shooting has risen by that much.

Of course, it's only been 2 weeks worth of games (7 games), from Dec. 16th until when this article was written.

The other adjustment should be familiar to anyone who has watched the Miami Heat deal with a similar issue involving stars LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Similar to what Miami does at times, Houston has made defenses account for both Lin and Harden by putting them into occasional pick-and-rolls together. The Lakers used a similar 1-2 pick-and-roll to set up Derek Fisher's winning score during Game 3 of the 2009 NBA Finals, and Orlando made extensive use of the same play when Vince Carter was on the roster.

Using Harden as a screener has a couple of advantages. It puts a guard in the unfamiliar position of defending the roll man. And since Harden is a threat from anywhere on the court, teams can't leave him to commit a second defender on Lin. So either Lin gets a relatively clear path to the basket or the defense has to switch, putting a smaller player on Harden and giving him the opportunity to post up.

I liked the Kidd-Carter pick and roll that the Nets used in 2005-2006. Unfortunately, I thought they only used it that one year. It put their two best players in a pick and roll, and they both could shoot, drive, or pass in the middle of the floor.

I wonder if I'll like the Lin-Harden pick and roll too.

 

[MHSL82]

Even taking into account the staggering of minutes, and increased familiarity with each other, I'm still surprised Lin's shooting has risen by that much.

Of course, it's only been 2 weeks worth of games (7 games), from Dec. 16th until when this article was written.



I liked the Kidd-Carter pick and roll that the Nets used in 2005-2006. Unfortunately, I thought they only used it that one year. It put their two best players in a pick and roll, and they both could shoot, drive, or pass in the middle of the floor.

I wonder if I'll like the Lin-Harden pick and roll too.

Shooting-wise, I was worried in the first twelve games. He was 42-126, which is 33%. I remember on Pardon the Interruption that after Lin's poor preseason shooting, one panelist went on the under 40% and one took the over.

It was looking bad because I used to track stats for Malone on shooting and in the lockout year, he was 5 shots from 50% and in 2000-01, he was 2.5 makes away. Three lousy layups away from 50%, I knew I had seen him miss a few - to his credit, sometimes he'd get a putback of his own shot, so that lessened the harm. Anyway, my point is, I was watching him comeback from poorer shooting and it looked really hard to climb the percentages. He'd start making progress and then a 10-24 game. Because not only do you need to shoot 50% to maintain that percentage, you have to shoot over 50% to climb back. It's like building up a GPA after a bad first two semesters, or something.

Thankfully 33% is easier to climb back from and 12 games is short. So when Lin was at 33% and the coach didn't seem to have an answer and some blame was on Lin for poor shooting - regardless of the system's use of him (he is not a spot shooter!), there was still hope if they adjusted ("they" includes Lin, not just the coaches or teammates).

So first 12 games: 42-126 (33%), 8-35 3pt shooting (22.8%), and 10.0 pts.
Last 19 games: 101-201 (50%), 16-53 3pt shooting (30.1%) and 13.5 pts.

Right now, overall, he's shooting 43.6% - my goal for him would be over the 44.6% he shot in New York. It'll be hard to push those numbers because he's not that great of a shooter, but he is driving to the hoop more and they are using him better.

He averages, 12.2 points and I've resigned that it's too late for him to better his 14.6 with New York, so my goal is for him to split the difference to get to 13.4 points per game. He'd have to average 16.2 points the rest of the season to get to 14.6+. Not likely, but possible. Harden will just need too many touches for that to happen over a sustained amount of time - 51 games. Even if he matched the 14.6, it still wouldn't be as good as it was in New York because now that he's playing more minutes and averaging hypothetically the same, the rate is down. Plus, the 14.6 in New York was watered down due to pre-Linsanity days.

He's never likely to be a 3-pt threat, as in teams needing to dedicate a commitment to guarding him. He may better his percentage by taking smarter and fewer threes. (I know "fewer" doesn't effect rate, but if he's thinking about passing or driving when it's a hard shot, fewer could help. I haven't seen enough games to see if he's taking unwise threes or just isn't the shooter. He's shooting better or choosing his shots better lately.

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Yes, 19 games isn't much better than two weeks as to sample size, but it's better. I could cherry pick more as his last 12 games is better than his last 19. I just chose first 12 and last 19 as the splits because 12 was his low. I plan to keep watching and see as it goes. He's now my Alex Smith of the NBA (I think you know why), but he's not on my favorite team. I can't seem to manufacture that interest with any player on the Jazz. I suppose Favors is closest?