The conference of... defense?! (PAC-12 Preview thread 2019)

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Arizona

Preview segment: The Arizona Wildcats

Last season: Uh... Khalil Tate? I thought that your skills at QB was gonna lead your Wildcats to a fine season... maybe even a PAC-12 South title! Sure, you had an ankle injury, but that's no excuse for dragging Arizona to a 5-7 record and no bowl. So I'd say- What? "Look at the defense?"
...Hmm, they DO look disorganized, but- Khalil?! Great, he ran off.

Good news: But actually, Arizona's defense last year was the best it had since 2013 (...Don't give me that weird look, it's true!). And this year's defense has good individual pieces (like Colin Schooler and a good secondary) that can make it even better. On offense, RB J.J Taylor (a first-team PAC-12 honoree) is back and so is Tate.

Bad news: The coaching staff wants Tate to have a more balanced approach to his quarterbacking. That might not be so easy with their top 3 WR's from a year ago now gone. Depth on BOTH of the lines are not great, as 'Zona is counting on JC-transfers to help them.

Key games:
9/14 vs. Texas Tech (Trust me: The Red Raiders are gonna be 2-0 when they visit Arizona for a Big 12/PAC-12 contest.)
10/5 @ Colorado (Arizona's PAC-12 opener [against UCLA] is a winnable game, and so is this game against the Buffaloes.)
10/19 @ USC (Don't scoff at this one; by this time, the Trojans could be 1-5 and be completely gassed. Unrelatedly, did you know that the last time Arizona won at USC was a decade ago?)
11/30 @ Arizona State (See my Arizona State preview.)

Bottom line: Simply put, I'm NOT picking Arizona to win the division this time. I don't CARE if the South division is in flux this year! ...But I DO see Arizona picking themselves up and at least getting to a bowl in 2019... if they don't have major injuries. AND if Tate makes the adjustments that he needs to make.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Washington State

The last preview segment for the PAC-12: The Washington State Cougars

Last season: The Washington Huskies might be holding the PAC-12 title right now, but do you wanna know which West-coast team REALLY had the better 2018? Their cross-town rivals from Pullman!
I mean, who had the better offense? The Cougars. Who had the amazing QB that's now a folk-hero? The Cougars. Who actually won their bowl game? The Cougars. And who was the one that finished in the postseason AP Top 10? That's right, the Cougars!
...Just one problem. Had Washington State won that snowy "Apple Cup" on that Black Friday, people would have been REALLY impressed with Mike Leach and his team.

Bad news: Gardner Minshew is gone. And Wazzu now has a 3-way race going on to find his replacement at QB. The secondary is hoping to be more consistent, and it wouldn't hurt for the offense to have someone other than Max Borghi running the ball.

Good news: ...Wait a minute. Didn't we say that "The QB position for Wazzu could be a problem" LAST summer? And wasn't Leach and his staff able to solve that problem? So, maybe it'll be the same thing THIS time, too! And besides, the new QB will have a great O-line protecting him and the usual array of powerful WR's. Some addictions [like transfer Lamonte McDougle] could help the D-line improve as well.

Key games:
9/13 @ Houston [at NRG Stadium in Houston] (This is really more of a test for Wazzu's offense than anything else; can they outscore Houston IN Houston?)
9/28 @ Utah (If the defense holds it together, Washington State will have a chance to beat Utah for the 5th straight time.)
10/26 @ Oregon (Hey! Remember when "College Gameday" finally came to Washington State, and the crew were like "What took us so long?"? ...Well, Oregon lost to the Cougars on that day, and they're not happy about it.)
11/16 vs. Stanford (Unbelievably, the buttoned-up Stanford folk have now lost to the country hicks from Pullman 3 straight times. Careful, Cougars!)
11/30 @ Washington (Actually, this is now more of a mental thing for Washington State. They again got the talent to beat Washington, but can they put it all together this time?)

Bottom line: Washington State is coming off it's first-ever 11 win season, and hopes are high that Mike Leach can again solve his QB problems so that this great run can continue. Plus, their defense has now gotten pretty good, so expect Wazzu to have more fun in 2019 with their "Air Raid" attack.
But road games at Oregon and Washington... Uh, I don't think Wazzu is gonna have a double-digit win season this time.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

PAC-12 Predictions

It's a rare day of rest for me tomorrow, as I'll be simply preparing my research for the Southeastern Conference thread that I'll be starting up on Monday. But before that, here are my bold predictions for the PAC-12 this year:

North division:
1. Oregon (Maybe "New Year's Six" bowl)
2. Washington
3. Washington State
4. Stanford
5. California
6. Oregon State

South division:
1. Utah (Conference champs, maybe Playoff)
2. Arizona State
3. USC
4. Arizona
5. UCLA
6. Colorado

Now, I leave this thread to you guys...

 

[WizardHawk]

Oregon

Preview segment: The Oregon Ducks

Last season: So after a iffy moment with my laptop, I'm back with you guys. The question I now have on my mind is "Is Oregon back?". I mean, they finished 4th in the PAC-12 North last year, so why is everyone excited for the Ducks to return to prominence? Hmmm... could Justin Herbert returning to Eugene be a reason why?

Good news: NFL Draft prospect Justin Herbert, with his top 2 RB's from a year ago and a awesome offensive line: A DEADLY COMBINATION! New defensive coordinator Andy Avalos inherits veteran players all over the roster, including tackling machine Troy Dye. Oh, and last winter Oregon got maybe it's best recruiting class EVER...

Bad news: ...Wait a minute. If Avalos is defensive coordinator, then where did Jim Leavitt go?! Will the defense be poorer for Leavitt's absence? Oh, and wide-receiver is gonna be a question mark for me until Juwan Johnson and his crew proves that they can stop dropping catches!

Key games:
8/31 vs. Auburn [in Arlington, TX] (Well, here we go again. It's Auburn vs. the PAC-12 for the second year in a row. And the PAC-12 is REALLY hoping that this encounter goes better for them than the last one.)
9/21 @ Stanford (Be careful, Ducks. Stanford is still gonna be Stanford, no matter HOW tired they are.)
10/19 @ Washington (Hey! I'm having "deja-vu" over here; this is gonna be the 2nd year in a row that Oregon play Washington...)
10/26 vs. Washington State (...and Washington State in consecutive weeks.)
11/23 @ Arizona State (Apologies to Oregon State, but this looks to me like the bigger game in November for the Ducks. Justin Herbert could get smacked if he underestimates ASU's defense.)

Bottom line: After a good 9-4 season last year, Oregon is REALLY hoping that Herbert's return will also signal their return to the big time. Herbert will have a good squad at his disposal; maybe all he needs is the WR's to get better so he can win at places like Arlington, Seattle, and Palo Alto.
So, will Oregon win the PAC-12 North? Uh... I need to preview Washington first before I make that call. Please be patient...

Washington

Preview segment: The Washington Huskies

Last season: Right now, the epicenter of college football on the West Coast is in the "Evergreen State" of Washington. I'll get to Washington State tomorrow, but for now it's about the Huskies. With a strong defense and a offense led by QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin, Washington grabbed their 2nd conference title this decade. So on the West Coast, they're standing tall.
On the national level, though... not so much (thanks to Washington losing their opener to Auburn and the Rose Bowl to Ohio State).

Good news: That's weird... Despite no longer having Gaskin and Browning, nobody in Seattle is panicking. Maybe that's because Washington was able to grab QB Jacob Eason off the transfer wire, and Jacob has maybe the best arm in the PAC-12. Also, Salvon Ahmed is stepping in at RB and can assist in the offense in a number of ways. On Washington's defense, we have a ton of talent...

Bad news: ...but not a lot of experience. The secondary should be fine, but Washington's D-line is lacking proven playmakers. Oh, and more production from the WR's wouldn't hurt, either.

Key games:
9/21 @ BYU (This could be a big "trap-game" for the Huskies, especially since they'll host USC the following week.)
10/5 @ Stanford (Washington was on the brink of irrelevancy in 2018... until they defeated Stanford 27-23. For this encounter, expect another slug-fest.)
10/19 vs. Oregon (Last year's Washington-Oregon game went to OT, and now these two rivals will meet in Seattle with their strong-armed QB's ready to go. )
11/2 vs. Utah (A rematch of last year's PAC-12 championship game, and maybe a preview of this year's.)
11/29 vs. Washington State (As long as Washington keeps the "Apple Cup" away from Washington State, the state will always be theirs.)

Bottom line: Jacob Eason is coming back to play football in his home state amidst a whirlwind of hype. But in order for Washington to defend their PAC-12 championship [and/or get a "New Year's Six" bowl berth], Jacob now has to deliver the goods. That goes double for that talented but unproven defense.

PAC-12 Predictions

It's a rare day of rest for me tomorrow, as I'll be simply preparing my research for the Southeastern Conference thread that I'll be starting up on Monday. But before that, here are my bold predictions for the PAC-12 this year:

North division:
1. Oregon (Maybe "New Year's Six" bowl)
2. Washington
3. Washington State
4. Stanford
5. California
6. Oregon State

South division:
1. Utah (Conference champs, maybe Playoff)
2. Arizona State
3. USC
4. Arizona
5. UCLA
6. Colorado

Now, I leave this thread to you guys...

Hard to pick a favorite in the North. The South? Sure. Way too many issues with the other programs to make many waves, but the North is a different story.

Curious that you like WSU over Stanford seemingly giving a tiebreaker to Stanfords tougher on paper schedule. Stanfords toughest road games are USC and UCF very early in the season and a late road game against WSU. They get all of the rest of their challenges at home. Not that Stanford carries a massive home field advantage with a crowd not known for rattling opponents, but still better than playing those on the road.

WSU has to play at Utah, ASU, Oregon, Cal and the Apple Cup. Yikes.

And while the ducks have the most experienced QB in the conference, he's also 4-8 as a starter on the road over his career and the ducks have the worst road slate in the conference this year. The reason there are quite a few sites still picking UW despite their turnover and lack of proven playmakers is exactly because of that.

UW's slate is as friendly for their current situation as you could have hoped for:
The have Cal in week 2, but at home
Don't play another division foe until October so quite a bit of time to get the younger kids up to speed
Their road games are a BYU, Stanford, Zona, the Beavs, and Colorado.
They get Utah at home after a bye week. That's a big break right there.

Ducks have to play at Auburn, Stanford, UW, USC and ASU. Even if you want to say on paper you like Oregon over USC it's in November and will be the 5th straight week of games for the ducks after an early bye and after back to back weeks of playing both Washington schools. That's a let down week formula if ever there was one.

If you only look at the surface you just pick Oregon and move on. When you look at road games, bye week and opponents coming off a bye week, and the deeper details it's not quite that cut and dry.

I'm not saying the ducks can't win the North or the conference, but a NY 6? If the ducks managed to win the conf it will be entirely because everyone else shot themselves. It won't be because of an 11+ win season. Utah honestly has the best schedule in the weakest division and the best shot at making a bigger bowl.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

UW's slate is as friendly for their current situation as you could have hoped for:
The have Cal in week 2, but at home
Don't play another division foe until October so quite a bit of time to get the younger kids up to speed
Their road games are a BYU, Stanford, Zona, the Beavs, and Colorado.
They get Utah at home after a bye week. That's a big break right there.

a day of reckoning for UWUB i'm afraid…i might have to check-in into this one in person.

 

[WizardHawk]

a day of reckoning for UWUB i'm afraid…i might have to check-in into this one in person.

lol, I knew you'd chime in on that. Beavs should be trending up and will trip someone up along the way this year. Need them to keep getting stronger to help tamp down those noisy neighbors of yours.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

Need them to keep getting stronger to help tamp down those noisy neighbors of yours.

DONE!

 

[Boise4Life]

I think it should be remembered that Oregon had the benefit of a poor schedule last year and also only managed to finish 4th in a 6 team division that’s part of what’s considered to be the worst Power 5 conference in football. So while I realize that they return their QB and their O line, etc. and also that teams move up and down in the standings from year to year, if Oregon does win the North and possibly play for a NY6 it will be a massive leap from the previous season.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I think it should be remembered that Oregon had the benefit of a poor schedule last year and also only managed to finish 4th in a 6 team division that’s part of what’s considered to be the worst Power 5 conference in football. So while I realize that they return their QB and their O line, etc. and also that teams move up and down in the standings from year to year, if Oregon does win the North it will be a massive leap from the previous season.

No one in P12 north has had an easy conference schedule since the PAC expanded.

 

[Boise4Life]

No one in P12 north has had an easy conference schedule since the PAC expanded.

The out of conference schedule was awful though and the bowl opponent not very good. The in conference record placed you fourth in the North. I would be surprised if you took the division title and even more surprised if you landed a NY6 and yes I realize you’ll likely begin the year as the highest rated team from the PAC. Just my opinion. We’ll see.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

The SDS Top 25: Ranking the best teams in college football to start 2019
10. Washington
2018 record/final AP rank: 10-4/No. 13
Yes, I’m higher on Washington than most. Part of that is Chris Petersen. Part of it is my belief that Jacob Eason (below) will be a better fit to run his system than Jake Browning was. I think the loss of Myles Gaskin will be tougher to overcome, but the Huskies still return 7 offensive starters. The defensive turnover is significant, no doubt (only 2 starters back from 2018). But I trust a Washington defensive staff that produced 3 consecutive top-8 defenses. They’ve recruited well — they signed 13 defensive players rated 4-stars or better the last 2 years — and should be able to handle some major personnel shifting without falling off a cliff.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

The out of conference schedule was awful though and the bowl opponent not very good. The in conference record placed you fourth in the North. I would be surprised if you took the division title and even more surprised if you landed a NY6 and yes I realize you’ll likely begin the year as the highest rated team from the PAC. Just my opinion. We’ll see.

What would the OOC schedule have anything to do with how Oregon finished in the conference?

 

[Boise4Life]

What would the OOC schedule have anything to do with how Oregon finished in the conference?

It doesn’t. But for me looking back and then looking forward to 2019 it’s really the 3-0 record versus a miserable OOC schedule to go with a 7-6 bowl win over a Michigan State team that sucked by their standards along with a 5-4 IC fourth place finish in the PAC 12 North. For you guys to go from that to a division title and possibly conference championship and then a NY6 game, it just seems like too much. As I stated it would take a massive leap. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I personally doubt it.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

It doesn’t. But for me looking back and then looking forward to 2019 it’s really the 3-0 record versus a miserable OOC schedule to go with a 7-6 bowl win over a Michigan State team that sucked by their standards along with a 5-4 IC fourth place finish in the PAC 12 North. For you guys to go from that to a division title and possibly conference championship and then a NY6 game, it just seems like too much. As I stated it would take a massive leap. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I personally doubt it.

It's plausible. Washington went from back to back 6 - 6 seasons in Petersen's first two years there to the CFP in his third year.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

It doesn’t. But for me looking back and then looking forward to 2019 it’s really the 3-0 record versus a miserable OOC schedule to go with a 7-6 bowl win over a Michigan State team that sucked by their standards along with a 5-4 IC fourth place finish in the PAC 12 North. For you guys to go from that to a division title and possibly conference championship and then a NY6 game, it just seems like too much. As I stated it would take a massive leap. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I personally doubt it.

Again, the OOC games are irrelevant. Not sure why you keep bringing them up. For Oregon to get to a NY6 bowl they have to win 2 more conference games than they did last year. They choked away the Stanford game, so really they just need to find 1 more win in-conference. It's not that big of a deal, which is why they are favored to win the division.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

It's plausible. Washington went from back to back 6 - 6 seasons in Petersen's first two years there to the CFP in his third year.

You're wasting your time.

Boise4Life has Shit4Brains.

 

[Boise4Life]

It's plausible. Washington went from back to back 6 - 6 seasons in Petersen's first two years there to the CFP in his third year.

It’s totally plausible. My whole thing is I’ll be surprised if it happens. Chris Petersen is one of the best coaches in college football. Mario Cristobal.....

Again we’ll see. I’m far from an Oregon hater. I want them to do well. As a West coast guy I’m hoping they represent in that Auburn game to start things off. A loss against a supposed middle of the road SEC team to the supposed PAC 12 front runner would be embarrassing to say the least.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

It’s totally plausible. My whole thing is I’ll be surprised if it happens. Chris Petersen is one of the best coaches in college football. Mario Cristobal.....

Again we’ll see. I’m far from an Oregon hater. I want them to do well. As a West coast guy I’m hoping they represent in that Auburn game to start things off. A loss against a supposed middle of the road SEC team to the supposed PAC 12 front runner would be embarrassing to say the least.

It's not as if Auburn's unranked...

 

[Boise4Life]

It's not as if Auburn's unranked...

They’ll be ranked lower than you although they are favored. I think the line is around 3.5. Good luck. As I said I’ll be pulling for your Ducks to represent. And then after that we’ll see how it all plays out in terms of conference supremacy.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

‎Cover 3 College Football Podcast: 2019 Win Totals: Pac-12 North (07/09) on Apple Podcasts

Barton Simmons and Chip Patterson discuss The Opening pick over-under win totals for the Pac-12 North. First, why one of the biggest storylines from the The Opening had to do with Ohio State recruiting (3:00) and who Barton thought stood out when Jalen Hurts, Sam Ehlinger, D'Eriq King and Shea Patterson were all put through workouts (12:40). Then the win totals breakdown for 2019 kicks in the Pac-12 North with Washington (25:15), Oregon (38:00), Washington State (50:00) and the rest of the division.