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Five teams loaded and ready to surprise - ESPN
By Sharon Katz
The 2014 season is in the books.
Obviously, that means it's time to look ahead to next year, right?
Mark Schlabach recently released his Way-Too-Early Top 25. TCU is his No. 1 team entering the 2015 season, and many of the usual suspects -- Ohio State, Alabama, USC and Oregon -- rank in the top 10.
Every year, however, it seems a team comes out of nowhere to shock the college football world. In 2014, TCU, Mississippi State and Arizona were all unranked in the preseason AP Poll and won at least 10 games; Notre Dame in 2012 and Auburn in 2013 similarly surprised preseason pollsters by competing for national championships.
Which unranked team will make splash in 2015? Using many of the same components accounted for in ESPN's Preseason FPI (which will be released in the spring), below are five teams not ranked in Mark Schlabach's Top 25 that have a chance to be in the conversation by season's end.
To be included on this list, teams must satisfy certain criteria that have been found to correlate with future success:
1. A team's average overall efficiency rating the past four seasons (with 2014 weighted more heavily) must rank in the top 50.
2. A team must be returning at least 13 starters (special consideration given to teams returning their starting quarterback).
Based on these rules, here are five under-the-radar teams for the 2015 season.
1. Stanford Cardinal
2014 record: 8-5, 5-4 in Pac-12
Average Efficiency Rank: 10
Returning Starters: 13 (9 offense, 4 defense)
For the first time since the 2009 season, Stanford failed to win 10 games. Defensively, the Cardinal were the same dominant force: They ranked in the top two in points per game and yards per play allowed, despite losing All Pac-12 defenders Shayne Skov, Trent Murphy and Ed Reynolds after the previous season.
Offensively, however, the Cardinal took a step back. They were inefficient in the red zone and, uncharacteristically, struggled to run the ball.
Next season should be a different story. Stanford is returning nine offensive starters, including four offensive linemen, and a stable of young running backs. Wide receivers Devon Cajuste and Michael Rector will be back; their further development should open up the downfield passing game Stanford lacked in 2014.
The biggest question is quarterback Kevin Hogan, who has not yet made his intentions known for the 2015 season. Hogan could enter the draft or transfer, but if he returns to Stanford, he would be the most experienced quarterback in the Pac-12.
If Marcus Mariota enters the draft -- as most assume he will -- the Pac-12 North should be wide open. With David Shaw calling the shots, another down year for the Cardinal appears unlikely.
2. Oklahoma Sooners
2014 record: 8-5, 5-4 in Big 12
Average Efficiency Rank: 15
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
To say Oklahoma's 2014 season was disappointing would be an understatement. The Sooners began the year ranked fourth in the preseason AP Poll, before posting their worst record since 2009.
The good news for Sooners fans is many of the players preseason pollsters were excited to watch return next season. First Team All-Big 12 selections RB Samaje Perine, WR Sterling Shepard, LB Eric Striker and CB Zack Sanchez are all coming back.
Oklahoma finished the 2014 season about as poorly as any team in the nation. After blowing a 14-point lead against Oklahoma State at home, the Sooners were blown out by Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl -- one of the worst losses in school history.
Based on the talent remaining, though, there is reason to believe Oklahoma will bounce back. The key will be improving its pass defense, which ranked 117th in the nation in yards per game allowed, and finding consistency at quarterback. Trevor Knight returns, and Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield is eligible to play. If either of them can take a step forward under Oklahoma's new offensive coordinator, the Sooners have a great shot to win the Big 12.
3. Texas A&M
2014 record: 8-5, 3-5 in SEC
Average Efficiency Rank: 22
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Kevin Sumlin's offense has ranked in the top 10 in offensive efficiency in five of his seven seasons as head coach, including No. 9 in 2014. With top-recruits Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray at quarterback and a talented class of returning wide receivers, the Aggies' offense should only improve.
The biggest question for Texas A&M -- as it is seemingly every year -- is if its defense can compete in the SEC. The Aggies allowed the worst touchdown percentage in SEC play and were the only SEC team that did not hold a conference opponent under 21 points. Defensive coordinator Mark Snyder was subsequently fired, and former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis was hired to replace him.
Chavis could be a game-changer for Texas A&M. While he was at LSU from 2009 to 2014, the Tigers ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency four times. He will have plenty of talent to work with; Texas A&M has signed a top-10 recruiting class in each of the past two seasons and is expected to sign a top class in 2015. Watch out for defensive end Myles Garrett, who ranked second in the SEC with 11.5 sacks as a freshman, and DB Armani Watts under Chavis.
With a potentially improved defense and favorable conference home/road schedule, prospects for the 2015 season are bright in Aggieland.
4. Florida Gators
2014 record: 7-5, 4-4 in SEC
Average Efficiency Rank: 24
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Florida is the only team on this list with a first-year head coach, but offensive-minded coach Jim McElwain could be exactly what the Gators need. Florida ranked 13th in the SEC in yards per game, offensive efficiency and Total QBR under Will Muschamp. Led by McElwain, Colorado State ranked in the top 25 in the country in all of those categories the past season.
McElwain inherits a lot of talent; the Gators signed a top-six class in each of the past three seasons, including the No. 2 class in 2013. With top recruits Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor at cornerback, the Gators will be tough to throw on.
Treon Harris will be returning at QB, and with McElwain's tutorage, he should improve next season if he wins the starting job. Talented skill-position players such as RB Kelvin Taylor and WR Demarcus Robinson could also have big seasons for the Gators.
The SEC East should again be the weaker division next season. Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky look to be improved, but Florida has a great chance to represent the East in the SEC Championship Game.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies
2014 record: 7-6, 3-5 in ACC
Average Efficiency Rank: 41
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
After winning 10 or more games each season from 2004 to 2011, Virginia Tech has failed to reach double-digit wins in any of the past three seasons. The Hokies finished 7-6 in 2014 and needed two consecutive wins to avoid their first losing season in 22 years.
Looking deeper into the numbers, however, the Hokies might not have been as bad as their record suggests. Virginia Tech lost five games by seven points or fewer, tied for most such losses in the nation. The Hokies were hammered by injuries, particularly on offense, but still managed to extend their FBS-leading bowl participation streak.
In 2015, Virginia Tech returns the second-most starters in the ACC, including eight players on a defense that ranked seventh in the FBS in efficiency. Offensively, Virginia Tech returns its top three receivers, top four rushers and QB Michael Brewer.
The Hokies once again avoid Florida State, Louisville and Clemson from the ACC Atlantic division and should have a great shot in a wide-open ACC Coastal. Their toughest test is undoubtedly against Ohio State, but if they can beat the Buckeyes again, the rest of their schedule is favorable.
Honorable mentions: Other teams did not make the list because of efficiency or returning starter limitations, including Texas, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Kansas State, North Carolina and Washington.
By Sharon Katz
The 2014 season is in the books.
Obviously, that means it's time to look ahead to next year, right?
Mark Schlabach recently released his Way-Too-Early Top 25. TCU is his No. 1 team entering the 2015 season, and many of the usual suspects -- Ohio State, Alabama, USC and Oregon -- rank in the top 10.
Every year, however, it seems a team comes out of nowhere to shock the college football world. In 2014, TCU, Mississippi State and Arizona were all unranked in the preseason AP Poll and won at least 10 games; Notre Dame in 2012 and Auburn in 2013 similarly surprised preseason pollsters by competing for national championships.
Which unranked team will make splash in 2015? Using many of the same components accounted for in ESPN's Preseason FPI (which will be released in the spring), below are five teams not ranked in Mark Schlabach's Top 25 that have a chance to be in the conversation by season's end.
To be included on this list, teams must satisfy certain criteria that have been found to correlate with future success:
1. A team's average overall efficiency rating the past four seasons (with 2014 weighted more heavily) must rank in the top 50.
2. A team must be returning at least 13 starters (special consideration given to teams returning their starting quarterback).
Based on these rules, here are five under-the-radar teams for the 2015 season.
2014 record: 8-5, 5-4 in Pac-12
Average Efficiency Rank: 10
Returning Starters: 13 (9 offense, 4 defense)
For the first time since the 2009 season, Stanford failed to win 10 games. Defensively, the Cardinal were the same dominant force: They ranked in the top two in points per game and yards per play allowed, despite losing All Pac-12 defenders Shayne Skov, Trent Murphy and Ed Reynolds after the previous season.
Offensively, however, the Cardinal took a step back. They were inefficient in the red zone and, uncharacteristically, struggled to run the ball.
Next season should be a different story. Stanford is returning nine offensive starters, including four offensive linemen, and a stable of young running backs. Wide receivers Devon Cajuste and Michael Rector will be back; their further development should open up the downfield passing game Stanford lacked in 2014.
The biggest question is quarterback Kevin Hogan, who has not yet made his intentions known for the 2015 season. Hogan could enter the draft or transfer, but if he returns to Stanford, he would be the most experienced quarterback in the Pac-12.
If Marcus Mariota enters the draft -- as most assume he will -- the Pac-12 North should be wide open. With David Shaw calling the shots, another down year for the Cardinal appears unlikely.
2014 record: 8-5, 5-4 in Big 12
Average Efficiency Rank: 15
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
To say Oklahoma's 2014 season was disappointing would be an understatement. The Sooners began the year ranked fourth in the preseason AP Poll, before posting their worst record since 2009.
The good news for Sooners fans is many of the players preseason pollsters were excited to watch return next season. First Team All-Big 12 selections RB Samaje Perine, WR Sterling Shepard, LB Eric Striker and CB Zack Sanchez are all coming back.
Oklahoma finished the 2014 season about as poorly as any team in the nation. After blowing a 14-point lead against Oklahoma State at home, the Sooners were blown out by Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl -- one of the worst losses in school history.
Based on the talent remaining, though, there is reason to believe Oklahoma will bounce back. The key will be improving its pass defense, which ranked 117th in the nation in yards per game allowed, and finding consistency at quarterback. Trevor Knight returns, and Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield is eligible to play. If either of them can take a step forward under Oklahoma's new offensive coordinator, the Sooners have a great shot to win the Big 12.
2014 record: 8-5, 3-5 in SEC
Average Efficiency Rank: 22
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Kevin Sumlin's offense has ranked in the top 10 in offensive efficiency in five of his seven seasons as head coach, including No. 9 in 2014. With top-recruits Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray at quarterback and a talented class of returning wide receivers, the Aggies' offense should only improve.
The biggest question for Texas A&M -- as it is seemingly every year -- is if its defense can compete in the SEC. The Aggies allowed the worst touchdown percentage in SEC play and were the only SEC team that did not hold a conference opponent under 21 points. Defensive coordinator Mark Snyder was subsequently fired, and former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis was hired to replace him.
Chavis could be a game-changer for Texas A&M. While he was at LSU from 2009 to 2014, the Tigers ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency four times. He will have plenty of talent to work with; Texas A&M has signed a top-10 recruiting class in each of the past two seasons and is expected to sign a top class in 2015. Watch out for defensive end Myles Garrett, who ranked second in the SEC with 11.5 sacks as a freshman, and DB Armani Watts under Chavis.
With a potentially improved defense and favorable conference home/road schedule, prospects for the 2015 season are bright in Aggieland.
2014 record: 7-5, 4-4 in SEC
Average Efficiency Rank: 24
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Florida is the only team on this list with a first-year head coach, but offensive-minded coach Jim McElwain could be exactly what the Gators need. Florida ranked 13th in the SEC in yards per game, offensive efficiency and Total QBR under Will Muschamp. Led by McElwain, Colorado State ranked in the top 25 in the country in all of those categories the past season.
McElwain inherits a lot of talent; the Gators signed a top-six class in each of the past three seasons, including the No. 2 class in 2013. With top recruits Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor at cornerback, the Gators will be tough to throw on.
Treon Harris will be returning at QB, and with McElwain's tutorage, he should improve next season if he wins the starting job. Talented skill-position players such as RB Kelvin Taylor and WR Demarcus Robinson could also have big seasons for the Gators.
The SEC East should again be the weaker division next season. Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky look to be improved, but Florida has a great chance to represent the East in the SEC Championship Game.
2014 record: 7-6, 3-5 in ACC
Average Efficiency Rank: 41
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
After winning 10 or more games each season from 2004 to 2011, Virginia Tech has failed to reach double-digit wins in any of the past three seasons. The Hokies finished 7-6 in 2014 and needed two consecutive wins to avoid their first losing season in 22 years.
Looking deeper into the numbers, however, the Hokies might not have been as bad as their record suggests. Virginia Tech lost five games by seven points or fewer, tied for most such losses in the nation. The Hokies were hammered by injuries, particularly on offense, but still managed to extend their FBS-leading bowl participation streak.
In 2015, Virginia Tech returns the second-most starters in the ACC, including eight players on a defense that ranked seventh in the FBS in efficiency. Offensively, Virginia Tech returns its top three receivers, top four rushers and QB Michael Brewer.
The Hokies once again avoid Florida State, Louisville and Clemson from the ACC Atlantic division and should have a great shot in a wide-open ACC Coastal. Their toughest test is undoubtedly against Ohio State, but if they can beat the Buckeyes again, the rest of their schedule is favorable.
Honorable mentions: Other teams did not make the list because of efficiency or returning starter limitations, including Texas, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Kansas State, North Carolina and Washington.
