Statistical analysis behind the choice to decline the 15yard penalty

[Cerathalis]

Summary: If you trust the math the choice doesn't make too much of a difference.

Behind decisions by Harbaugh, Whisenhunt - NFC West Blog - ESPN

To bad the team has not taken the next step on offense or defense at being able to close out games.

 

[CalamityX11]

% my butt... it was an automatic first down..... take it extend the drive, tack on the likely FG(TD would've sealed it(in theory)), get that two score lead(that everyone claims we wouldn't have), give ball back to cowboys with less time on clock.

 

[FourBeeDen]

% my butt... it was an automatic first down..... take it extend the drive, tack on the likely FG(TD would've sealed it(in theory)), get that two score lead(that everyone claims we wouldn't have), give ball back to cowboys with less time on clock.

Since you placed the phrase "in theory" in there... It is also theoritically possible that a turn over can occur.. An interception, a fumble, a block FG attempt, a center QB botch exchange... All of those are possible in theory

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

% my butt... it was an automatic first down..... take it extend the drive, tack on the likely FG(TD would've sealed it(in theory)), get that two score lead(that everyone claims we wouldn't have), give ball back to cowboys with less time on clock.

Too many "what ifs" in the scenario that work for both sides. Point is he made the call and we moved on. Doesnt excuse the fact that when given the ball back our Offense couldnt seal it away or when given a 10 point lead our defense couldnt stop them and into OT on the frist play.

 

[guitarmy21b]

I don't think percentages really matter in this case... sometimes you have to coach from your gut and his instincts should have told him to go for the kill.

 

[Cerathalis]

I would have taken the penalty if it was my choice <shrug>, but it is interesting that the model that supposedly takes into account the time used up only translates to a .2% gain.

 

[threelittleturds]

I don't think percentages really matter in this case... sometimes you have to coach from your gut and his instincts should have told him to go for the kill.

Jesus, you're still trolling this board? Pathetic.

 

[guitarmy21b]

Jesus, you're still trolling this board? Pathetic.

How am I trolling? Am I not allowed to give my opinion in this forum unless I root for your team? I'm not instigating anything, I'm not shit talking, I'm voicing my opinion on a widely discussed topic this week, an opinion shared by most people on this forum. Get off my nuts dude. If you can't handle a fan of another teams opinion, maybe a sports forum isn't for you.

 

[sayheykid1]

Since you placed the phrase "in theory" in there... It is also theoritically possible that a turn over can occur.. An interception, a fumble, a block FG attempt, a center QB botch exchange... All of those are possible in theory

That could also happen on third down, perhaps the Niners should start punting on third down just to avoid those possibilities.

 

[sayheykid1]

Summary: If you trust the math the choice doesn't make too much of a difference.

Behind decisions by Harbaugh, Whisenhunt - NFC West Blog - ESPN

To bad the team has not taken the next step on offense or defense at being able to close out games.

I can't trust math that I cannot see.

 

[CalamityX11]

Since you placed the phrase "in theory" in there... It is also theoritically possible that a turn over can occur.. An interception, a fumble, a block FG attempt, a center QB botch exchange... All of those are possible in theory

My "in theory" was in context had we score a TD, being up 14 vs 10, sounds like win right there, if the defense were to hold up....

But the defense didn't hold up.....

I rather go 10 up or 14 up with less than 10 mins of time left vs the 10 up with about 10 mins left

An interception, a fumble, a block FG attempt, a center QB botch exchange

In theory that can happen in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th.... Gore hadn't fumbled the ball nor has Alex threw more than 1 INT this season, he's in the take a sack if nothing is there mode... Unless it's a clear pass to an open man, i would expect(pray) for runs for the next series of downs....

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

The merits of that decision can be debated ad nauseum. Of greater concern is the long term effects of that decision that you bring when you tell your offense that you don't trust them. I know something like that is tough for Harbaugh to consider in the heat of the moment but it could have a long term effect.

 

[h-hour]

The merits of that decision can be debated ad nauseum. Of greater concern is the long term effects of that decision that you bring when you tell your offense that you don't trust them. I know something like that is tough for Harbaugh to consider in the heat of the moment but it could have a long term effect.

And THATS what Im afraid is going to happen. '06 Rams game comes to mind as does the Vikings game a couple years back.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

And THATS what Im afraid is going to happen. '06 Rams game comes to mind as does the Vikings game a couple years back.

harbaugh needs to nip that feeling in the bud right away by showing some confidence in them next time around.

 

[deep9er]

% my butt... it was an automatic first down..... take it extend the drive, tack on the likely FG(TD would've sealed it(in theory)), get that two score lead(that everyone claims we wouldn't have), give ball back to cowboys with less time on clock.

like your confidence in this current offense, really do. thats better than reading the polar opposite.

however, in this particular scenario i agreed with the call. today with 20/20 its an easy target, but there are many things that could've gone wrong even for an Above Average offense.

our offense started well but at that point in the game, don't think it was even Average? there's good reason for that adage, it isn't made up out of thin air.

wouldn't have thought the win percentage was over 90%, but certainly much more in our favor.

 

[deep9er]

harbaugh needs to nip that feeling in the bud right away by showing some confidence in them next time around.

how can he not, its now game 3. but showing confidence and 'opening it up', isn't quite the same level.

it makes sense he started the season like Harbaugh has. we had a short off-season and it affected us the most, but funny how fans forget this and expect QUALITY passing now?

you can see the off-season effect in the O-line and 'miscommunication' in the secondary. the team has the base parts down but they don't quite have the details, the gelling.

granted Alex Smith played better than i expected, we ALL know not to expect much.....or should know.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

how can he not, its now game 3. but showing confidence and 'opening it up', isn't quite the same level.

it makes sense he started the season like Harbaugh has. we had a short off-season and it affected us the most, but funny how fans forget this and expect QUALITY passing now?

you can see the off-season effect in the O-line and 'miscommunication' in the secondary. the team has the base parts down but they don't quite have the details, the gelling.

granted Alex Smith played better than i expected, we ALL know not to expect much.....or should know.

He needs to show confidence and open it up. Although they are not necessarily the same thing, he can accomplish the former by doing the latter when the opportunity arises.

 

[deep9er]

He needs to show confidence and open it up. Although they are not necessarily the same thing, he can accomplish the former by doing the latter when the opportunity arises.

i don't quite follow you on "when the opportunity arises"?

if you can cite a few examples, i'm sure it'll help? whether an example in one of the two games, or just made up.

 

[Flyingiguana]

a good coach picks his spots to be aggressive. that seemed like the right spot to do it and send a message to the team. we're not there yet but at some point we gotta put teams away.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

i don't quite follow you on "when the opportunity arises"?

if you can cite a few examples, i'm sure it'll help? whether an example in one of the two games, or just made up.

The drive before halftime in the Cowboy game. The first three drives after halftime in the Seattle game The decision not to take the first down at the 22 yard line and take the points off the board in the Cowboy game.

In general though just give the offense the opportunity to win the game for you rather than hamstringing them with the conservative play calling and making them play not to lose. I for one believe that Snmith has played his best football when he is freewheeling it in a two-minute type offense.