State of the Team

[calsnowskier]

A look back at the top 5 picks in recent drafts...

2014
1 - Brady Aiken (didnt sign, drafted in '15 at #17)
2 - Tyler Kolek (has not played since '15. TJ?)
3 - Carlos Rodon (already has 2 years of MLB experience, currently on 60-day)
4 - Kyle Schwerber (unquestionable power, but he is having trouble getting on base this year. Is expected to be one of the elite hitters in the game)
5 - Nick Gordon (HS SS. Currently in AA at 21 and a top 50 prospect)

2013
1 - Mark Appel (currently in AAA, but not looking like anything special)
2 - Kris Bryant (ROY and MVP in his first 2 years)
3 - Jon Gray (Part of the Rox young rotation. Had 168 innings in 28 starts last year)
4 - Kohl Stewart (damn. The Twins draft worse than the Padres)
5 - Clint Frazier (top 25 prospect in Yanks org. Key piece of Miller trade)

2012
1 - Carlos Correia (stud. Best overall SS in the game?)
2 - Byron Buxton (former top prospect in the game. However, have I mentioned how bad the Twins are at drafting?)
3 - Mike Zunino (Power hitting catcher. Not a good one)
4 - Kevin Gausman (In his 5th MLB season already. Decent 3/4 SP)
5 - Kyle Zimmer (former top 25 prospect. Just reached AAA for first time this year.)

2011
1 - Gerrit Cole (Craw's Bro-in-Law. Pirate Ace??)
2 - Danny Hultzen (never made it to bigs. Currently out of the game. Injury? His minor league numbers were pretty good)
3 - Trevor Bauer (innings eater, back of the rotation SP)
4 - Dylan Bundy (May be having a breakout in his 2nd MLB season)
5 - Bubba Starling (currently in AAA. Looks like AAAA is his ceiling)

2010
1 - Bryce Harper (enough said)
2 - Jameson Taillon (top prospect, solid rookie year, nice start to sophomore year... Cancer. Fuck)
3 - Manny Machado (One of the elite 3B in the game)
4 - Christian Colon (let the journey of the journeyman begin)
5 - Drew Pomeranz (Solid 3/4 SP)

You have to make a list like this to remind yourself how REALLY good the Giants are at drafting in the first round the last 10 years or so. Timmeh, Bum, Posey, Wheeler, Panik, Arroyo, Beede, Stratton, Bickford...)

 

[SFGRTB]

A look back at the top 5 picks in recent drafts...

2014
1 - Brady Aiken (didnt sign, drafted in '15 at #17)
2 - Tyler Kolek (has not played since '15. TJ?)
3 - Carlos Rodon (already has 2 years of MLB experience, currently on 60-day)
4 - Kyle Schwerber (unquestionable power, but he is having trouble getting on base this year. Is expected to be one of the elite hitters in the game)
5 - Nick Gordon (HS SS. Currently in AA at 21 and a top 50 prospect)

2013
1 - Mark Appel (currently in AAA, but not looking like anything special)
2 - Kris Bryant (ROY and MVP in his first 2 years)
3 - Jon Gray (Part of the Rox young rotation. Had 168 innings in 28 starts last year)
4 - Kohl Stewart (damn. The Twins draft worse than the Padres)
5 - Clint Frazier (top 25 prospect in Yanks org. Key piece of Miller trade)

2012
1 - Carlos Correia (stud. Best overall SS in the game?)
2 - Byron Buxton (former top prospect in the game. However, have I mentioned how bad the Twins are at drafting?)
3 - Mike Zunino (Power hitting catcher. Not a good one)
4 - Kevin Gausman (In his 5th MLB season already. Decent 3/4 SP)
5 - Kyle Zimmer (former top 25 prospect. Just reached AAA for first time this year.)

2011
1 - Gerrit Cole (Craw's Bro-in-Law. Pirate Ace??)
2 - Danny Hultzen (never made it to bigs. Currently out of the game. Injury? His minor league numbers were pretty good)
3 - Trevor Bauer (innings eater, back of the rotation SP)
4 - Dylan Bundy (May be having a breakout in his 2nd MLB season)
5 - Bubba Starling (currently in AAA. Looks like AAAA is his ceiling)

2010
1 - Bryce Harper (enough said)
2 - Jameson Taillon (top prospect, solid rookie year, nice start to sophomore year... Cancer. Fuck)
3 - Manny Machado (One of the elite 3B in the game)
4 - Christian Colon (let the journey of the journeyman begin)
5 - Drew Pomeranz (Solid 3/4 SP)

You have to make a list like this to remind yourself how REALLY good the Giants are at drafting in the first round the last 10 years or so. Timmeh, Bum, Posey, Wheeler, Panik, Arroyo, Beede, Stratton, Bickford...)

The MLB draft is so much more of a numbers game than any other pro sports draft (it's one big accounting exercise) and it's kinda a crap shoot, but it tends to slightly favor team willing to spend top dollar for high level talent. It's not an exact science, but good players fall in MLB drafts because teams don't want to draft someone that will handcuff their draft class to one guy, their future to one guy, because of his signing bonus. Sign a guy over-slot too much, and you don't have enough room to sign another guy you like over-slot that fell to in in the 2nd round. If the correct makeup of teams isn't there in the top 10, some guys can fall really far because they can't fit into budget. That's when you start seeing clauses where draft prospects are making the bigs the year they're draft, or the year after, to start their clocks. Or teams make space to catch the guys in free fall. The Giants have taken slot or below slot guys the last few years and loaded up on falling talent in the 2-10 rounds.

Back to what I was getting at: The collection of teams in the top 5/10 can make all the difference, less so than the players themselves. The most obvious example is one we can all familiarize with. Tampa Bay Rays have the 1st pick and they have the perfect poster boy waiting for them right in their back yard. Buster Posey checks every box imaginable for this franchise.... except his bonus demand. He was demanding $12M. The Rays balked at that and took the cheaper Tim Beckham and used that money saved to draft a falling lefty in the 2nd round. Giants were A-OK paying the price for Posey (ended up being half that, and $50K more than Beckham). Now, the draft slot bonus is much different now (holy cow that was 9 years ago) to make it somewhat fairer in situations like this, but even so it still happens in today's draft. Mickey Moniak, last years 1st pick, was a cost saving pick, and Jason Groome, Forrest Whitley, and Blake Rutherford were fallers (guess who the were picked up by, Boston, Houston, and New York Yankees, 3 high spending teams) and when they were picked sign top-10 value bonuses.

Jeez, this post rang long. All I'm saying is that the collection of teams in the top 5 makes a big difference and it's sometimes unfair to judge. Guys fall in draft all the time not because they suck (arguably they're more talented), but for money alone. As if to say, there was many different ways to draft in baseball and you don't always need a top 5 pick to succeed in this draft climate. I think that change will become more clear as the years go by and prospects from these last few draft classes start to break through.

I'm bored and like to talk about the draft.

 

[Pattersonca65]

they have a massive payroll to manage down, don't expect anything drastic. it's a 5-7 yr re-build.. sabean and bochy won't be here to reap the benefits, so we're not only rebuilding the team, but searching for a new management structure. as a giants fan since '62, i've been here b'fore and it's a long slow process.

I wasn't expecting them to go crazy in free agency or anything like that. Just wondering if it might be time to move on from some of the older vets on the team like Pence and Span and bring up a few more of the young guys if this group can no loner compete for a championship.

 

[Pattersonca65]

What's extra sad is, it's been a long time since we were just bad, all year. Even last year with the horrible 2nd half, we made the playoffs and won the playin game and gave the Cubs a scare.

The other odd years we were competitive and had just won a ring and it was fun to watch them.

It's been 3 years now, and this may be the first year since say 2008 when we are just bad, full stop, all year. It's unfamiliar (lately).

It has been unfamiliar. I still stick behind Bochy and the FO because of the success they've had over the past several years. We'll see how this season ends, but it might be that we are in need of bigger changes now. I looked at the team's stats that they look bad. Hardly anyone is hitting, maybe three players.

 

[calsnowskier]

I wasn't expecting them to go crazy in free agency or anything like that. Just wondering if it might be time to move on from some of the older vets on the team like Pence and Span and bring up a few more of the young guys if this group can no loner compete for a championship.

If Span can stay on the field, he may be a decent trade piece. He can actually control a game when he gets hot.

Pence ain't going anywhere. He has a full no-trade in his contract, and he loves the Gs and SF. Of course, if the buying team wanted to make it happen, they could. But he isn't a good enough player anymore to get a team to do what is needed to get him to waive his no-trade.

 

[SFGRTB]

If Span can stay on the field, he may be a decent trade piece. He can actually control a game when he gets hot.

Pence ain't going anywhere. He has a full no-trade in his contract, and he loves the Gs and SF. Of course, if the buying team wanted to make it happen, they could. But he isn't a good enough player anymore to get a team to do what is needed to get him to waive his no-trade.

I've come down a bit on my stance to keep Arroyo in the bigs. I'd be okay f they sent him to AAA for a little bit. Hopefully Nunez continues to play well and they can actually get something worth while for him.

Span too might be able to fetch something. His contract is frankly really cheap, and the Giants could even eat some money. He'd be useful for someone.

 

[stanford the manford]

I wasn't expecting them to go crazy in free agency or anything like that. Just wondering if it might be time to move on from some of the older vets on the team like Pence and Span and bring up a few more of the young guys if this group can no loner compete for a championship.

i think it's all contract dependent. pence, i believe has options to stay for a while. span may be in his last contract year. i don't follow contracts so its just something i seem to recall.

regardless, pitching staff need overhauling and a complete outfield redo. couple that with a likely management change in the next few years (and the inevitable change in philosophy) and the fact your stalwarts will be on the mid to downside of their careers, this looks to be to be a slow rebuild. others disagree, and they may be right -we've caught lightning in a bottle before. unfortunately i just don't see it

 

[calsnowskier]

i think it's all contract dependent. pence, i believe has options to stay for a while. span may be in his last contract year. i don't follow contracts so its just something i seem to recall.

regardless, pitching staff need overhauling and a complete outfield redo. couple that with a likely management change in the next few years (and the inevitable change in philosophy) and the fact your stalwarts will be on the mid to downside of their careers, this looks to be to be a slow rebuild. others disagree, and they may be right -we've caught lightning in a bottle before. unfortunately i just don't see it

Cot's Baseball Contracts

COTS. Know it. Live it. Love it.

Pence makes 18.5M in 17 and 18. No options.

Span makes 9M in both 17 and 18 and there is a 12/4 mutual option for 19.

With Bochy's health issues, I am sitting about 50/50 that he will be back next year.

 

[stanford the manford]

Cot's Baseball Contracts

COTS. Know it. Live it. Love it.

Pence makes 18.5M in 17 and 18. No options.

Span makes 9M in both 17 and 18 and there is a 12/4 mutual option for 19.

With Bochy's health issues, I am sitting about 50/50 that he will be back next year.

so no chance of re-tooling the outfield in the short term.... looks like more of the same for next year

they better not raise season ticket prices in '18

 

[calsnowskier]

Interesting note about the Cueto comments that I was not aware of...

He apparently made them back in April. So why are they just getting reported now? Theories over on Docs site say that the Giants requested they get published as a signal to other teams to make an offer on him.

 

[msgkings322]

Interesting note about the Cueto comments that I was not aware of...

He apparently made them back in April. So why are they just getting reported now? Theories over on Docs site say that the Giants requested they get published as a signal to other teams to make an offer on him.

We definitely need to move him somehow

 

[Pattersonca65]

Interesting note about the Cueto comments that I was not aware of...

He apparently made them back in April. So why are they just getting reported now? Theories over on Docs site say that the Giants requested they get published as a signal to other teams to make an offer on him.

What did Cueto say?

 

[calsnowskier]

What did Cueto say?

Basically said the lack of Dominicans makes the clubhouse dead. All the players just sit at their own lockers in silence.

 

[SFGRTB]

Interesting note about the Cueto comments that I was not aware of...

He apparently made them back in April. So why are they just getting reported now? Theories over on Docs site say that the Giants requested they get published as a signal to other teams to make an offer on him.

Interesting

 

[LHG]

Basically said the lack of Dominicans makes the clubhouse dead. All the players just sit at their own lockers in silence.

The article I found (Phillies pound Strickland, Giants offense limp again in loss) didn't have a whole lot other than a sentence or two on what he said about Dominicans and the current clubhouse makeup.

 

[LHG]

Jerry Crasnick over at y'all's favorite website (Is it time to break up the Giants?) asked some of the same questions about the trading deadline. Personally, I think the FO will be very quiet in July. Maybe a couple of small trades happen but nothing more. The one possibility I could see changing that is if Cueto starts pitching better, then he may be involved in a semi-big trade.

 

[SFGRTB]

Jerry Crasnick over at y'all's favorite website (Is it time to break up the Giants?) asked some of the same questions about the trading deadline. Personally, I think the FO will be very quiet in July. Maybe a couple of small trades happen but nothing more. The one possibility I could see changing that is if Cueto starts pitching better, then he may be involved in a semi-big trade.

I think they'll be very active overall, but remains to be seen if any deals get done. If they don't find a good deal for Cueto, I wouldn't be surprised to see them to hold onto him and take the comp pick (assuming he opts out). If they eat some money, Span should be fairly easy to move. Nunez should be real easy to move. They might have to wait until the offseason to move Matt Moore. His value stinks right now.

At the very least, they'll be active in releasing a number of players.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yeah. I don't expect a tear down by any stretch.

Nunez
Maybe Queto
Maybe Span
Hill and Gonor, if anyone wants them.
Maybe Melancon, but the Giants will need to blown away. Same with Panik.
Anyone in the pen is avail, but I doubt there will be interest.

And the QO system has been completely revamped. Does anyone know how it would work in Cueto's case this year, assuming he opts out?

 

[LHG]

I think they'll be very active overall, but remains to be seen if any deals get done. If they don't find a good deal for Cueto, I wouldn't be surprised to see them to hold onto him and take the comp pick (assuming he opts out). If they eat some money, Span should be fairly easy to move. Nunez should be real easy to move. They might have to wait until the offseason to move Matt Moore. His value stinks right now.

At the very least, they'll be active in releasing a number of players.

Sorry, I meant quiet in terms of actual trades. Yeah, they will kick lots of tires and release a few players (hopefully, yet I feel bad saying such things about actual human beings) but not end up doing many trades.

 

[LHG]

Yeah. I don't expect a tear down by any stretch.

Nunez
Maybe Queto
Maybe Span
Hill and Gonor, if anyone wants them.
Maybe Melancon, but the Giants will need to blown away. Same with Panik.
Anyone in the pen is avail, but I doubt there will be interest.

And the QO system has been completely revamped. Does anyone know how it would work in Cueto's case this year, assuming he opts out?

I just don't see how either Hill or Gillaspie are trade candidates. Gillaspie's numbers are far worse now than when the White Sox dfa'd him and the Angels claimed him in 2015. Either would need to start playing everyday and post spectacular numbers in the next month to even begin to dream about trade options. The value they bring is a dime a dozen. Just about any club can bring a veteran they've got stashed away at AAA for the same production.
Honestly, even with Span's hot streaks, I don't see him being much of a trade candidate either. If the Giants eat some money, he may be traded for a minor leaguer to be named later but not much more than that.
Only realistic trades I think could happen are Nunez and Cueto and maybe Kontos and Hundley. I think its possible the Giants shop Strickland due to the negativity from the feud he's got with Harper. But even that feels a bit far fetched.