Starting Pitchers Through the First Two Months

[calsnowskier]

ERA and WHIP are good guides to see how the player has performed throughout, but to see trends, and to get a better idea of a starting pitchers true effectiveness, looking at the PQS is another strong tool, if still flawed.

In review, the PQS assigns 1 point for five separate benchmarks that are hit in a game...

1) MUST go at least 6 IP. If the pitcher does not go at least 6, he gets an automatic 0 for the game, regardless of other points accrued.

2) Hits <= IP

3) K >= IP-2

4) K >= BB*2

5) HR <= 1

A quick breakdown of each starter for the Giants this year (number in parenthesis is there PQS if the 6 IP requirement were not in effect)

Bum
Four 5s
Two 4s
Two 3s
One 2
Two 0s (3,4)

Huddy
One 4
Four 3s
Two 2s
Three 0s (3,2,1)

Timmeh
One 5
Four 4s
Five 0s (3,1,2,2,3)

Vogey
Two 5s
Three 4s
Five 0s (1,3,2,2,1)

Heston
Six 5s
Four 0s (3,2,2,0)

Peavy
Two 0s (3,3)

Petit
One 3

(More to breakdown to follow)

 

[Stokes1931]

So all totaled and averaged:

Bum = 3.27 (11 starts)

THud = 2.00 (10 starts)

Timmeh = 2.10 (10 starts)

Vogey = 2.20 (10 starts)

Moses = 3.00 (10 starts)

Biggie = 3.00 (1 start)

 

[calsnowskier]

The order, for trending...

Bum
4,0(3),3,5,5,5,0(4),2,4,3,5

Heston
5,5,5,0(3),5,0(2),5,0(2),0(0),5

Timmeh
4,0(3),4,0(1),4,5,0(2),4,0(2),0(3)

Vogey
0(1),0(3),0(2),4,0(2),4,5,0(1),4,5

Huddy
3,3,0(3),2,2,3,0(2),3,0(1),4

Summary thoughts

Bum
Basically, even in his short outings, he was basically been effective (3 and 4). He has been consistent, which is what you want at the top of the rotation.

Heston
OMG. He has been an absolute stud. 3 of his 4 shirt outings can in band-boxes (Col twice and Cin; the other was at home vs SD). Outside of these hiccups, he has been CY caliber. The problem with him is that he has three 0s in his last 5 games. That is not a good trend.

Timmeh
Like Heston, when Timmeh is on, he is a beast. His problem is consistancy and endurance. Three of his last four starts have been 0s.

Vogey
Same song, different player. When he is on, he is a beast. When he goes 6, he is dominating. His first three starts were bombs, but since then, five his last seven starts have been dominant (4 or 5).

Huddy
He is pitching like a nice #4 pitcher. He has been somewhat consistent (only two 0s on the year), but rather un-remarkable otherwise.

 

[calsnowskier]

This tells me that we can certainly use some help, most likely from outside the org, in the rotation. Bum is a very nice #1/#2 (by the numbers), Heston is a very promising rookie (probably a #3 right now) and Huddy is a decent anchor in the #4 spot.

Vogey and Timmeh are just not consistent enough to rely on for the future. Vogey is trending well, so he MAY be able to lock down a spot, but Timmeh is simply too much of a crap-shoot. Cain and Peavy will both likely be back in the next month or so, but you can't rely on either of them at this moment.

 

[calsnowskier]

So all totaled and averaged:

Bum = 3.27 (11 starts)

THud = 2.00 (10 starts)

Timmeh = 2.10 (10 starts)

Vogey = 2.20 (10 starts)

Moses = 3.00 (10 starts)

Biggie = 3.00 (1 start)

While averaging out PQSs can be done, the way the scores are arrived at makes the final averaged number too generalized, I think, to be of much use. It is better say that Timmeh is 50% awesome, 50% crap. Calling him a 2.1 just does not tell nearly enough of the story.

 

[tzill]

ERA and WHIP are good guides to see how the player has performed throughout, but to see trends, and to get a better idea of a starting pitchers true effectiveness, looking at the PQS is another strong tool, if still flawed.

In review, the PQS assigns 1 point for five separate benchmarks that are hit in a game...

1) MUST go at least 6 IP. If the pitcher does not go at least 6, he gets an automatic 0 for the game, regardless of other points accrued.


This isn't true. If a pitcher fails to go five, he gets an automatic zero. If he goes 5 - 5.2 IP, he gets no point for IP, but still would be eligible for the other four PQS categories.

E.g. Pitcher goes 5.1 IP, gives up 5 H, 4 K, 2 BB, 1 HR but high pitch count gets him removed. He'd get a 4 PQS score.

If Pitcher goes 4.2 IP, 0 H, 8 K, 0 BB, 0 HR, he'd get a zero.

 

[tzill]

While averaging out PQSs can be done, the way the scores are arrived at makes the final averaged number too generalized, I think, to be of much use. It is better say that Timmeh is 50% awesome, 50% crap. Calling him a 2.1 just does not tell nearly enough of the story.

The metric I look at for PQS is DOM (4 or 5 score) percentage and DIS (0 or 1 score) percentage. You want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want his DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. Using your numbers:

Bum: 63% DOM, 27% DIS
Huddy: 40%, 30%
BT: 50%, 50%
Tron: 50%, 50%
Moses: 60%, 40%
Peaved: 0%, 100%
Biggie: 0%, 0%

Ignoring Peaved and Biggie for SSS, all five are dominant a good percentage of the time. However, all five are disasters too often. Some of this is SSS wonkiness (I doubt Bum's DIS stays above 20%, or BT's DOM stays above 40%). Using this, you could say "half the time, Timmah and Tron are dominant, and the other half they're crap" and be accurate. I you said "2/3 of the time Bum is awesome, and 1/4 of the time he blows" you'd be technically correct, but as you say -- you'd want to also consider trends, FIP, BABIP, etc.

My read: Bum is an ace, Huddy is a #4, Tron is a #5, Moses has had a nice start but is inconsistent, and BT is a fringe SP. I think when Horse comes back, he slides in the #2 slot and all is well. BT/Tron/Peaved fight over the #5 spot. Rotation for the playoffs: Bum/Horse/Moses/Huddy. Bullpen: KC/JA/Romo/JLo/Greek/Strick/Biggie/(one of the #5 SP)

Barring injury (and really, haven't we had our fair share of SP injury so far?) no trade for a pitcher in August. Maybe a backup MI.

Barring injury to the position players, playoff roster:
C - MVP
1B - BB9
2B - Disco
SS - Stamos
3B - Duffman
LF - Seaweed/Shark
CF - Oxy
RF - Herk
Bench: Suss, Kobe, Seaweed/Shark, Max, (added MI).