SJ's 2015-2016 NFL prospect chat

[RamsFan88]

If we're talking about last years squad, sure, I agree about Goff picking himself up. But, I feel like our young guys are going to take a big step forward this year in their development.

 

[bluepigpen]

CB, LB, WR, LT first thought, first round, Center 2nd round and lets see if Chase or Foles and especially Mannion can play before jumping in on another project.

 

[shopson67]

There are always those eternal optimists out there, aren't there....

It's not only hard to imagine, it's down right impossible to imagine in most cases....

If you want to give me some examples of some true Junior QB prospects or even some D2 QB's who have come in to the league starting their rookies seasons who had even fair seasons; Let us know...

So, you're saying these QBs aren't worth drafting if they can't start year 1? BTW, next year's top QB (Watson) will also be a true Junior.

True Junior (or less) starters in year 1 since 2011:

Winston: redshirt sophomore
Bridgewater: true junior
Geno: true junior
Gabbert: true junior

 

[Vitamike]

What other junior QB's have done in the NFL has no bearing on what the current prospects can achieve. And like I said, we need someone long term, not a couple of back ups like Foles and Keenum.

But I'm pretty certain Goff can come in and throw for 181 yards a game and pass for more than 11 touchdowns in a season. Hell, Blake Bortles put up those kind of numbers his rookie year and that would have been better than what the Rams got out of Keenum and Foles.

We often agree RF88 but not here.

Using historical data is a fundamental tool in predicting future outcomes. Sure, it's not absolute, but for you to state it has 'no bearing' is head shaking at best.

You can be certain all you want about Goff, but where these prospects go and how they are utilized is another factor you apparently are looking past as well. (As SJ has pointed out prior to me getting this post out)

Consider at Cal last year, Sonny had Goff spreading the ball all over the field. He averaged 40+ attempts per game. Then consider, in the 5 games that Case played last year, he threw for an average of 25 attempts per game, and only for 20 attempts in his 3 wins. (Remember of those 5, it also includes an OT game, where Case attempted 37 passes pushing that 25 pass attempt average up)

So I just don't see either of those rookies getting more opportunities to throw the ball for the Rams when Fisher wants the Rams to be that smash mouth run the ball type of offense. Throw in the fact that Goff will not only be a Rookie, he will be a very young rookie with limited passing attempts, coming out of a spread offense, no real talent to throw the ball to, and facing NFC West defenses for 38% of his starts says it all.....

So no, I just don't find it easy to imagine Goff or Wentz coming in and putting up better numbers than what Keenum or Foles did last year.

It could happen, and 'better numbers' is subjective. Slightly better? I really don't care about. I think we could get that out of Case for that much and I am still on 'Let's see what Sean has' before we move on to the next guy and waste another top draft pick.

 

[Vitamike]

So, you're saying these QBs aren't worth drafting if they can't start year 1? BTW, next year's top QB (Watson) will also be a true Junior.

True Junior (or less) starters in year 1 since 2011:

Winston: redshirt sophomore
Bridgewater: true junior
Geno: true junior
Gabbert: true junior

No, I'm not saying that at all. But first, thank you Shops for at least presenting a list to review.

Sure, I just don't like starting Rookies at QB, who really does? When you think about it, there are only a few offensive positions in the NFL that allow for even the most talented to step in as rookie starters and perform at a high level.

Honestly, the only QB on your short list that I would feel as comfortable as RF88, regarding rookies putting up better numbers than Foles or Case, playing Fisherball of course, would be Winston. But the cost to trade up and get a guy like that would have been tremendous!

 

[RamsFan88]

We often agree RF88 but not here.

Using historical data is a fundamental tool in predicting future outcomes. Sure, it's not absolute, but for you to state it has 'no bearing' is head shaking at best.

You can be certain all you want about Goff, but where these prospects go and how they are utilized is another factor you apparently are looking past as well. (As SJ has pointed out prior to me getting this post out)

Consider at Cal last year, Sonny had Goff spreading the ball all over the field. He averaged 40+ attempts per game. Then consider, in the 5 games that Case played last year, he threw for an average of 25 attempts per game, and only for 20 attempts in his 3 wins. (Remember of those 5, it also includes an OT game, where Case attempted 37 passes pushing that 25 pass attempt average up)

So I just don't see either of those rookies getting more opportunities to throw the ball for the Rams when Fisher wants the Rams to be that smash mouth run the ball type of offense. Throw in the fact that Goff will not only be a Rookie, he will be a very young rookie with limited passing attempts, coming out of a spread offense, no real talent to throw the ball to, and facing NFC West defenses for 38% of his starts says it all.....

So no, I just don't find it easy to imagine Goff or Wentz coming in and putting up better numbers than what Keenum or Foles did last year.

It could happen, and 'better numbers' is subjective. Slightly better? I really don't care about. I think we could get that out of Case for that much and I am still on 'Let's see what Sean has' before we move on to the next guy and waste another top draft pick.

I completely disagree, but that's ok. Historical data doesn't have any impact on what an individual prospect will achieve in the NFL. The player and the coaching staff are the only ones in control of how that prospect will turn out and not what happened with player X 6 years ago. If that was the case, Derek Carr would be a bust like his brother and they had very similar tools coming out of college.

You can't say Goff has had limited pass attempts when he's been a starter since his freshman season. He's thrown the ball over 1500 times in college and has improved his numbers every year in college. And Dykes has coached him every year he's been there, so I'm not sure why you keep bringing Dykes up in the conversation. He's always trusted Goff to throw the ball all over the field and he gave him the reigns this year and he succeeded. Whoever takes him is going to get a very successful and productive player whose skills translates to the NFL. He can make every throw you need to make, he is smart and very accurate.

I get that Fisher would probably limit a rookie more so than Keenum, but I don't feel that is a bad thing. Quick hitters and a short to intermediate passing game for a rookie QB can be successful in their development, especially if they are kept upright. I think that would work better with our power run game. And, I don't know about you, but I don't see Fisher being here long term without a viable QB option or a playoff birth in the next two seasons.

 

[Retroram52]

This is what I hope happens as rumors of trades begin to swirl. For once a trade down scenario and I like this one a lot.

2016 NFL Draft: Seven Round Mock Draft 2.0

 

[RamsFan88]

I'd be ok with that.

 

[shopson67]

Yeah, that mock is pretty good. Not sure about Thomas, and I can't imagine Jaylon lasting into the 4th round, but that's a pretty solid mock overall.

 

[SJ76]

If we're talking about last years squad, sure, I agree about Goff picking himself up. But, I feel like our young guys are going to take a big step forward this year in their development.

I think and hope you are right, especially on the Oline. But give our current 3 QBs a shot with a more mature and experienced Oline. If they suck again, then shit I guess we are looking at 7-9 again at best.

 

[SJ76]

We often agree RF88 but not here.

Using historical data is a fundamental tool in predicting future outcomes. Sure, it's not absolute, but for you to state it has 'no bearing' is head shaking at best.

You can be certain all you want about Goff, but where these prospects go and how they are utilized is another factor you apparently are looking past as well. (As SJ has pointed out prior to me getting this post out)

Consider at Cal last year, Sonny had Goff spreading the ball all over the field. He averaged 40+ attempts per game. Then consider, in the 5 games that Case played last year, he threw for an average of 25 attempts per game, and only for 20 attempts in his 3 wins. (Remember of those 5, it also includes an OT game, where Case attempted 37 passes pushing that 25 pass attempt average up)

So I just don't see either of those rookies getting more opportunities to throw the ball for the Rams when Fisher wants the Rams to be that smash mouth run the ball type of offense. Throw in the fact that Goff will not only be a Rookie, he will be a very young rookie with limited passing attempts, coming out of a spread offense, no real talent to throw the ball to, and facing NFC West defenses for 38% of his starts says it all.....

So no, I just don't find it easy to imagine Goff or Wentz coming in and putting up better numbers than what Keenum or Foles did last year.

It could happen, and 'better numbers' is subjective. Slightly better? I really don't care about. I think we could get that out of Case for that much and I am still on 'Let's see what Sean has' before we move on to the next guy and waste another top draft pick.

Yes could care less about numbers - besides INT's and fumbles. Limited pass attempts with no turnovers is good with me. I don't see the Rams changing their identity for one of these QBs coming out.

 

[SJ76]

This is what I hope happens as rumors of trades begin to swirl. For once a trade down scenario and I like this one a lot.

2016 NFL Draft: Seven Round Mock Draft 2.0

I like the 5th round TE Higbee pick and the 1st rounder doesn't bother me too much. Loading up on Ohio St. WRs tho.. not sure about those guys. Or how good that FS from WV is either.


Best that mock is kinda weird. Jets won't take a QB.

 

[Clayton]

I like the Karl Joseph, Xavien Howard combo. Its basically a poor man's Earl Thomas and a poor man's Richard Sherman so it makes sense to draft them together.

 

[Vitamike]

Yes could care less about numbers - besides INT's and fumbles. Limited pass attempts with no turnovers is good with me. I don't see the Rams changing their identity for one of these QBs coming out.

And you get it SJ.

It's easy to see by RF's reply that he didn't really read or at least understand my last post he copied. Goff had 40+ attempts at Cal for his career average. That works under Sonny's spread system at Cal because it's CFB, and the only reason I bring up Sonny is Cal will continue to do well, even in the absence of Goff. The turnaround at Cal is because of Sonny, not Goff.

That alone should be considered.

Once you require a guy like Goff to attempt to throw the ball 50% less, we find it disturbs rhythm in a major way, forget about the spread offense allowing college WR to easily get open. This rhythm aspect is probably a similar struggle with both Foles and Kneenum (Both spread guys who can get a good rhythm going like Goff given a high pass attempt average. <Much like Foles under Chip>) but that's besides the point.

The main contributor with reducing the total number of pass attempts like the Rams will require, puts a lot of pressure on the 3rd down completion ratio.

Basically, when everybody, (And by everybody, I mean most all NFL defensive talent both player and NFL Defensive Coordinators) know you are throwing the ball on a third of the 20 to 25 attempts, it creates a huge challenge for these guys, that they haven't seen in College.

Geez I could go on but to me this is so basic and the reason for my 'eternal optimist' comment.

Oh well, we are all cut of different clothes, so I guess we all see it in different ways.

 

[RamsFan88]

Tell that to all the spread quarterbacks that are succeeding in the NFL right now that their rhythm has been disrupted. Most NFL teams have effectively adopted its own version of the spread offense. And once Fisher is gone, you better believe we're going to hire someone that understands that.

But you seem to be missing my point. I'm not looking at just next season. I'm looking at the future. Keenum and Foles (probably Mannion too) aren't the long term answer at QB. With Goff, you have someone that you can build around and lead the team to playoffs. It's not an eternal optimist outlook, it's just common sense that you need a QB to win in this league. We haven't had that since Bulger.

 

[Vitamike]

Tell that to all the spread quarterbacks that are succeeding in the NFL right now that their rhythm has been disrupted. Most NFL teams have effectively adopted its own version of the spread offense. And once Fisher is gone, you better believe we're going to hire someone that understands that.

But you seem to be missing my point. I'm not looking at just next season. I'm looking at the future. Keenum and Foles (probably Mannion too) aren't the long term answer at QB. With Goff, you have someone that you can build around and lead the team to playoffs. It's not an eternal optimist outlook, it's jus common sense that you need a QB to win in this league. We haven't had that since Bulger.

RF, we are not talking about spread QB's in the NFL right now, we are talking about spread QB's on the Rams. I mentioned Foles had success with Chip didn't I? Again, you are just not accounting for the number of pass attempts Fisher is wanting our QB's to attempt. 20 -25 is about right. Do you want to address that?

I've only brought it up in the last three posts however was thinking about it all along, and you just want to poo poo it as if it wasn't a factor any QB rookie or not would have to deal with under center wearing horns.

And regarding the future, what makes you think Sean wouldn't do as well or better than Goff?

Sean already is a year ahead of Goff in the NFL and 3 years ahead of him since HS, plus he played in a Pro-style offense at Oregon State, took snaps from under center, and set all time PAC passing records...

 

[Vitamike]

This is what I hope happens as rumors of trades begin to swirl. For once a trade down scenario and I like this one a lot.

2016 NFL Draft: Seven Round Mock Draft 2.0

Why lookie there, someone else who thinks the Rams may not draft a QB in rounds 1-7.



With as bad as Foles and Kneenum have been, I wonder what gives?

 

[RamCub]

Retro - I would take that mock. However, I'm holding out for a DT with the first pick. Love trading down this year for sure!

I think the analysis in the article of our picks is spot on.

 

[SJ76]

Tell that to all the spread quarterbacks that are succeeding in the NFL right now that their rhythm has been disrupted. Most NFL teams have effectively adopted its own version of the spread offense. And once Fisher is gone, you better believe we're going to hire someone that understands that.

But you seem to be missing my point. I'm not looking at just next season. I'm looking at the future. Keenum and Foles (probably Mannion too) aren't the long term answer at QB. With Goff, you have someone that you can build around and lead the team to playoffs. It's not an eternal optimist outlook, it's just common sense that you need a QB to win in this league. We haven't had that since Bulger.

Like who? Which spread QBs are you talking about? Only 1 comes to my mind that's been SOMEWHAT consistent and that's Cam Newton. He's also 6'5 250 and can take a beating WAY more than any other QB in the league. Russell Wilson has done a good job, but he's been more of a game manager having Marshawn and that defense = ball control. Cam also benefits from solid RBs and solid D.

I like a mobile QB too and I'm all for an offense that suits the team on the field, especially at QB. Mariota can mix in the spread, but better what his back.. RG3 did it for what?? 2 years? Bridgewater was ok last year but took some hits. Who else has ran the spread? Kaepernick had a good year and San Fran went to shit.

 

[SJ76]

A spread QB that's not 6'5 250 and has no RB an defense = disaster in the making because he's probably on the field ALOT and that = more hits.

The only one listed above that didn't have a stout D was RG3 and he got hurt. Funny how RG3 and Kaep both had success early and now are big ??? Makes you think either the team went to shit or someone figured them out or they just got hit too many times.

Cam Newton = big and strong/can take punishment way more than these other guys.
Russell Wilson = quick and smart, knows when to get out of the way. But also has about the least amount of pass attempts a QB can have + had a rammer like Marshawn.


Other than those 2, I don't see spread QBs killin it and Russell is debatable. Mariota can and probably will, but will he stay healthy? Bridgewater? Again look at the RB and Defense he has. RG3 is either gonna get killed in Cleveland or quit, especially if they are dumb enough to trade Joe Thomas. Who knows where Kaep goes and what he does?