SEC and the Next Best 3 Week 5

[BoiseMike19]

PMing you with a Merle Haggard story I think you will like.

 

[WestEndVol]

I'm back again for another week, and I think we got a little bit of clarity last week. Missouri lost on the road at Kentucky, which snapped a pretty long road win streak for Mizzou, and once again their offense looked terrible. The defense as expected wasn't bad, but I just can't see Missouri winning too many games unless they start scoring more points and moving the ball a lot better. I know Kentucky is a team on the rise, and they've been playing decent ball this year, but I absolutely did not expect Missouri to have their road winning streak snapped at the hands of the Wildcats. Mizzou has a tough row to hoe if they want to three peat as SEC East champs, and the rest of the SEC will be treading in dangerous waters if they take Kentucky too lightly. Kentucky still isn't a threat to win the East, but they are a team capable of wrecking another team's season if taken lightly.

And FLorida's win streak over Tennessee now stands at 11. That had to be a brutal finish for Volunteer fans. It was pretty much a mirror image of the Oklahoma game. Leading by two scores in the 4th, only to let the game slip away, and then barely miss a long field goal that would have won the game. Tennessee is a talented team, but they are going to have to start finishing games. You would have thought that Butch Jones would have learned his lesson about taking the foot off the gas after the Oklahoma game. When the other team gets momentum late in the game, it's hard to swing it back in your favor. Tennessee has three very talented wide receivers, they need to start using them. As for Florida, they're a sneaky team this year. They play good defense, which that has never really been an issue, but I think they're gonna seed some more consistency on offense of they are going to win the East. Grier looked pretty shaky last Saturday, and they have a big game against Ole Miss this weekend, and the Rebels might not be as forgiving as the Volunteers

You know times are tough in Auburn when you lose to Mississippi State at home. Sean White certainly didn't look great, but it was his first ever game in college, and I'm not sure how much you can really expect from him, but your hand is kind of forced when your starter plays as bad as Jeremy Johnson did. Auburn's chances at winning the West are now officially over. At this point, I'm wondering if they can even make a bowl game. In no game has Auburn looked to be even a decent team. Proves what preseason polls mean.

Now on to this week's games.

The Cupcakes


San Jose State @ Auburn- I hesitate to call any team a cupcake for Auburn at this point, but at least their defense decided to show up against Mississippi State. This is just a game where better talent will win the game for the home crowd. Not really much I can say to hype this game up. I know I won't be watching unless there's a chance for an upset. Final Score: Auburn 38-10

Eastern Michigan @ LSU- Syracuse stayed in the game a lot longer than any of us expect against LSU, but LSU wound up winning by two scores, and taking a knee when they easily could have scored another touchdown. Leonard Fournette has been nothing short of spectacular this season, and while I haven't watched an EMU game this season, I doubt they'll have much of an answer for him. This one will be over by halftime. Final Score: LSU 52-7

Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky- Kentucky is coming off of a big win over Missouri, and they already have two conference wins on the season, and they haven't even played Vanderbilt yet. They look like they have found something on defense after a shaky first game against UL-Lafayette. Towles and company should have no problem with EKU this weekend. Final Score: Kentucky 42-13


Could be a Close Game


Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee State- Vanderbilt doesn't have much of an offense. McCrary has potential to be a good QB down the road, but he's clearly a work in progress at the moment, and Webb can only do so much with a QB that can't pass and a mediocre at best offensive line. Vandy's strength is clearly on the defensive side where they have outplayed everyone's expectations. Vandy might be 1-3, but blame it on the terrible offense. Vandy held WKU to 14 points, Georgia to 17 on offense and just last week they gave the Rebels more trouble than any other team has on the season. MTSU isn't a bad team and should make a bowl game. They have a solid offense, and their defense is about average. I just see Vandy's defense coming up bigger later in the game and Vandy squeaking out a win on the road. Final Score: Vanderbilt 24-21


Eh, At Least They're Conference Games


South Carolina @ Missouri- Given how bad both of these teams are offensively, this will probably wind up being a close game. Missouri can't move the ball against mid majors, and South Carolina has looked just as bad. The big difference in the two teams are Missouri has actually played good defense this year. Their defense is the only reason they are 3-1 instead of 1-3. South Carolina has looked just as lost on defense as they have on offense. Hell, Georgia went from their opening possession of the game until garbage time in the fourth without ever even facing a third down against the Gamecocks. There will definitely be some entertainment value to this game. You'll see Missouri struggle to move the ball against another terrible defense. You'll see South Carolina unable to capitalize on some golden opportunities because they don't have a quarterback or a run game. In the end, I trust Mizzou's defense a lot more than I trust South Carolina's, and in games like this, it's normally safe to pick the home team. Final Score: Missouri 21-14

Arkansas @ Tennessee- A battle of preseason hype here. I was tempted to put this in the cupcake section, but as a general rule I won't put conference games in there. Tennessee should be 4-0 right now with two wins over big time programs. Instead they sit 2-2 with two double digit leads in the 4th quarter blown. In fact there have only been 3 games in the entire country where a team has blown a lead of at least 13 points and lost the game. Tennessee has two of those games. Arkansas is coming off of three straight losses. They did take A&M to overtime last week, but I'm willing to chalk that up to being a rivalry game at Jerry World. Arkansas looks pretty lost on both sides of the ball. They turned heads last season with their run game. They haven't been able to get the run game going this year, and Allen is not a QB you need throwing the ball 30+ times a game. The game is in Neyland, and Tennessee is a far more talented team. Barring a hangover from the tough loss in the Swamp last week, Tennessee should win this game fairly easily. Just remember, Coach Jones, don't take your foot off the gas, and don't start sitting on a lead midway through the 3rd and you should be fine. Final Score: Tennessee 35-14


Which Team is the Real Deal?


Mississippi State @ Texas A&M- This is an interesting game to me. Both teams come into this matchup ranked, a win for Mississippi State helps validate their ranking and keeps them alive in the SEC West, and a win for Texas A&M will go a long ways in proving they're worth a top 20 ranking. Knowing what we know now and seeing how bad Arizona State has been, this will be the first real test for the Aggies this season, and I do have some concerns. They needed overtime to beat an Arkansas team that lost to Toledo and Texas Tech and they allowed Ball State and Nevada to score more points than I would like to see if I were an Aggies fan. Mississippi State's defense has been surprisingly good this season. They shutout LSU in the second half, and if they had a good kicker, they would have won that game. They held Auburn to just 9 points last week as well. While I think a lot of Kyle Allen at quarterback, and he has a lot of weapons, I just don't see them being able to score a lot of points on the Bulldogs of the west. They're going to need a good game from their defense to win this one. Dak Prexcott hasn't been putting up the Heisman Finalist numbers he was putting up last season, but he has done a solid job in his senior season and they're not running as much option this season. It's tough to win on the road, especially against a division rival, but I think Mississippi State has the defense to slow down A&M and keep this a low scoring game, and IMO, a low scoring game will give Mississippi State the upper hand in a mild upset. Final Score: Mississippi State 27-21

I'll be at the MTSU-Vandy game.

 

[Rebel]

Well they have a freshman coming in Drew Lock. If they cant beat Kentucky with Mauk, can they beat South Carolina without him?

The offense doesn't look productive with mauk so I don't know. Maybe the kid can give the offense a spark its been missing.

 

[Deep Creek]

That leads me to believe Miss St can hang around with A&M or it was just a good matchup for Arky (not sure why though).

I think it will be a close game. Can't see either blowing the other one out. The reason I would favor A&M is the Kyle Field factor.

 

[mutiger]

Does mauk being suspended change that prediction?

Drew Lock is going to take the starting job and never look back. He is the better QB

 

[fordman84]

A&M struggled scoring against Arky which surprised me because Tech didn't really struggle. They basically run the same offense as Tech and have much, much more talented receivers. Which leads to a conclusion that Mahomes is better than Allen. Or Arky improved a lot in one week.

I think both might be true. Plus the old "fool me once" thing and being embarrassed can focus coaches and players quite a bit.

 

[Gohogs14]

A&M struggled scoring against Arky which surprised me because Tech didn't really struggle. They basically run the same offense as Tech and have much, much more talented receivers. Which leads to a conclusion that Mahomes is better than Allen. Or Arky improved a lot in one week.

Our defense did play a lot better but Allen didn't have the mobility that we really struggled with from Mahomes. Plus our offense did a good job of keeping them off of the field.

Not really sure what to expect this week. We aren't good but I think Toledo and Tech are better than people were giving them credit for at the time. Both are around top 30 in the AP. Offense has moved the ball on everyone for the most part. Just worry about Dobbs' scrambling ability against our defense.

 

[night]

Is georgia having a blackout by chance ?

November 6th against Kentucky is the black out game. South Carolina, Missouri, and Alabama are the red out games.

 

[Chewbaccer]

The offense doesn't look productive with mauk so I don't know. Maybe the kid can give the offense a spark its been missing.

Mauk being suspended still doesn't change my prediction. Really, I don't think the backup can play much worse.