Sabes first round track record

[tzill]

For the last five years:

2006: Tim Lincecum.
2007: Madison Bumgarner.
2008: Buster Posey.
2009: Zack Wheeler.
2010: Gary Brown.

That's FUCKING impressive. Draft is June 6; we pick 29.

George Brett was selected 29. Just sayin'...

 

[msgkings322]

Remember when Sabean was an idiot who couldn't draft anybody, especially position players? How the cycle turns...

 

[Heathbar012]

I'd really like to get into fan scouting of the MLB draft like I enjoy the NFL's and NBA's, but there is something that creeps me out about evaluating the talent of a high school kid. I keep an eye on who Oregon has recruited based on ESPN and rivals rankings, but I never see these guys play until they put on a Duck jersey. The same goes for pro baseball, but with their affiliated minor league team's jersey.

I understand that scouting is a huge and rapidly growing industry, but I just can't get behind supporting talent evaluation of high school kids, no matter how necessary it may be for everything from scholarships to a profession in the sport. I guess I have a hard time seeing where the line will be drawn. Junior High? Elementary school? Obviously, this is hyperbolic due to not knowing roughly what a child's frame will become, but simply the idea of evaluation of a child's frame possibly being a growth industry makes my skin crawl.

 

[calsnowskier]

For the last five years:

2006: Tim Lincecum. #9 overall
2007: Madison Bumgarner. #10 overall
Tim Alderson #22
Wendell Fairley #29
Nick Noonan #32
Jackson Williams #43
Charlie Culberson #51
2008: Buster Posey. #5 overall
2009: Zack Wheeler. #5 overall
2010: Gary Brown. #24 overall

That's FUCKING impressive. Draft is June 6; we pick 29.

George Brett was selected 29. Just sayin'...

Just to be argumentative...

 

[nateistheshi]

Just to be argumentative...

Just to be argumentative again:

Culberson appears to be surviving the hitting prospect graveyard known as Richmond. His stats thus far are nothing special, but he was also great in the Fall.

Noonan in May (SSS I know but he had 42 April at bats,) .309/.377/.527.

Alderson is now Freddy Sanchez

I don't want to argue for Fairley or Jackson, but I think it's way too early to give up on these 2 guys.

 

[calsnowskier]

Just to be argumentative again:

Culberson appears to be surviving the hitting prospect graveyard known as Richmond. His stats thus far are nothing special, but he was also great in the Fall.

Noonan in May (SSS I know but he had 42 April at bats,) .309/.377/.527.

Alderson is now Freddy Sanchez

I don't want to argue for Fairley or Jackson, but I think it's way too early to give up on these 2 guys.

I think it is OK to give up on Jackson. Fairley needs to be given this season, then he is EME -.

Now, to be fair...

Sabes had awesome picks to get these guys, but he hit a homerun with each of the big picks. THAT is impressive. To not strike out once in 4 straight top 10 picks is HUGE.

 

[calsnowskier]

AND...

To the class of the draft with 2 of those picks is even huger.

 

[Heathbar012]

AND...

To the class of the draft with 2 of those picks is even huger.

Maybe even 3 depending on how Strasburg comes back from injury and the trajectory of Wheeler's career. Ackley could be the gem of that draft, too. Again, way too early to tell.

 

[tzill]

Just to be argumentative...

Alderson was good enough to flip for Franchez.
Fairley looks like a bust.
Noonan is in Richmond, making progress.
Williams is in Fresno, and doing OK.
Culberson is in Richmond, and on the 40 man.

All in all, not to bad. Remember that less than 20% of all first rounders/supp picks ever make it to the Show.

 

[calsnowskier]

Alderson was good enough to flip for Franchez.
Fairley looks like a bust.
Noonan is in Richmond, making progress.
Williams is in Fresno, and doing OK.
Culberson is in Richmond, and on the 40 man.

All in all, not to bad. Remember that less than 20% of all first rounders/supp picks ever make it to the Show.

Nope


Yes, Alderson was dealt for Franchez. But Alderson himself was a bust. By this logic, Morris was a good signing because it was corrected after-the-fact.

My point of being argumentative (outside of my general demeanor of being a JA) was to say that the Gs were picking at the very top of the draft, so they SHOULD have been able to build a strong system. And we really can not give them a pass for 2007. To only get 1 HR out of that group has to be viewed as an overall failure.

 

[msgkings322]

All this talk and no mention of Belt. Where'd he get drafted?

Basically, I think we all agree that Sabean and the team have been Chuck Norris-level awesome at drafting the last 5 years.

Probably a little lucky too, as all success in baseball involves some luck.

 

[tzill]

Nope


Yes, Alderson was dealt for Franchez. But Alderson himself was a bust. By this logic, Morris was a good signing because it was corrected after-the-fact.

My point of being argumentative (outside of my general demeanor of being a JA) was to say that the Gs were picking at the very top of the draft, so they SHOULD have been able to build a strong system. And we really can not give them a pass for 2007. To only get 1 HR out of that group has to be viewed as an overall failure.

Understood, but you may be thinking of the MLB draft as similar to the NFL or NBA, where a high first round pick is pretty much a lock to be a significant contributor. Less than 20% ever make it to the bigs.

Sabean did pretty damn well, I think.

 

[nateistheshi]

All this talk and no mention of Belt. Where'd he get drafted?

Basically, I think we all agree that Sabean and the team have been Chuck Norris-level awesome at drafting the last 5 years.

Probably a little lucky too, as all success in baseball involves some luck.

That is pretty weird that nobody has mentioned Belt yet, Belt-2009-5th round-147 overall

If we go back a couple more years then we get into Romo, Sanchez, Wilson, Cain, but the failure rate on the picks back then was much higher.

 

[calsnowskier]

All this talk and no mention of Belt. Where'd he get drafted?

Basically, I think we all agree that Sabean and the team have been Chuck Norris-level awesome at drafting the last 5 years.

Probably a little lucky too, as all success in baseball involves some luck.

I am a fan of Belt, there is no question...

BUUUUUUUUUT....

Until he begins to show some aggressiveness in AAA, he is just a AAAAAA player. His passivity killed him in his first stint in SF, and he is playing the same fucking game in Fresno right now. It works in AAA, but it gets eaten alive in MLB.

 

[calsnowskier]

Understood, but you may be thinking of the MLB draft as similar to the NFL or NBA, where a high first round pick is pretty much a lock to be a significant contributor. Less than 20% ever make it to the bigs.

Sabean did pretty damn well, I think.

20% is for the first round...

I would like to see the same study for top 10.

I agree, 4 straight HR picks (2 of which are the apparent gem's of the class) is HUGE. But picking that high is a big handicap that can not be ignored.

 

[tzill]

20% is for the first round...

I would like to see the same study for top 10.

I agree, 4 straight HR picks (2 of which are the apparent gem's of the class) is HUGE. But picking that high is a big handicap that can not be ignored.

Agreed, it was good to have high picks, but I'm unaware of any franchise over the last 5 years that has done this well. Those were all SOLID picks.

 

[gp956]

I've never been a fan of Sabean's drafting. More than anything though, I was not a fan of Magowan's firing of a significant portion of the scouts following the 1995 season - so maybe it's not all Sabean's fault. Nuekom's beefed up the scouting staff, so I wouldn't expect another 13 year position player drought.

Anyway, here's a link to Baseball America's june draft page. You can see the career WAR compiled by each team's first round draft choice, by year. Just change the year and you can "walk" through all of Sabean's first rounders. You'll also see how few draftees make an impact at the ML level.