Russell Wilson Projections Week 5

[CrashDavisSports]

Russell Wilson, Sea, QB (88 percent started, $37 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Cin

Cardboard cut-outs of One Direction. Magnetic football figurines. Friendly apparitions. No matter what the Seattle offensive line is constructed from, it's highly permeable, to say the least. The Wilson pressure cooker is stuck on 11. Under duress a league-high 43.9 percent of the time, he's had to fend off relentless zombie herds in an attempt to move the chains and, most importantly, remain upright. If not for his shiftiness and quick-thinking, Wilson would be laid out on a hospital bed. Through four games, he's on pace for a David Carr-like 72 sacks. Evidenced in his 44.3 rushing yards per game owners have benefited from the constant badgering, but it seems the QB, and the organization as a whole, are playing with fire. Bank on Wilson to again sit firmly on a bunsen burner this week, especially if hamstrung Marshawn Lynch is unavailable or limited. The Bengals boast a formidable defense. They swarmed under Alex Smith five times last Sunday and have surrendered only one 18-plus point fantasy QB in four games, Joe Flacco in Week 3. Corners Leon Hall and Pacman Jones, who each rank top-20 in pass coverage per Pro Football Focus, have given up just 8.3 yards per catch this year. Toss in Seattle's struggles on the road and confidence for Wilson to finish top-12 this week isn't high. Jay Cutler (at KC), Marcus Mariota (vs. Buf) and Philip Rivers (vs. Pit) are more attractive alternatives.

Fearless Forecast: 19-31, 215 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interception, 38 rushing yards, 15.4 fantasy points

In the bold print, if this is the case, then Kirkpatrick must be terrible or our safeties are. We gave up 380 passing yards last week. We have been giving up passing yards to Flacco the week before. If our secondary is getting lit up like this, and Jones and Hall rank top 20 among CB's, then Kirkpatrick and our safeties have to be terrible, right?

At any rate, let's hope the streak continues and Wilson has a day that is projected above. 215 yards with only 38 yards rushing means their offense struggled as long as our run defense keeps playing like it has. It will be tough to score on Seattle with Kam back anyways, so we have to hope their offensive woes continue.

 

[cincygrad]

Russell Wilson, Sea, QB (88 percent started, $37 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Cin

Cardboard cut-outs of One Direction. Magnetic football figurines. Friendly apparitions. No matter what the Seattle offensive line is constructed from, it's highly permeable, to say the least. The Wilson pressure cooker is stuck on 11. Under duress a league-high 43.9 percent of the time, he's had to fend off relentless zombie herds in an attempt to move the chains and, most importantly, remain upright. If not for his shiftiness and quick-thinking, Wilson would be laid out on a hospital bed. Through four games, he's on pace for a David Carr-like 72 sacks. Evidenced in his 44.3 rushing yards per game owners have benefited from the constant badgering, but it seems the QB, and the organization as a whole, are playing with fire. Bank on Wilson to again sit firmly on a bunsen burner this week, especially if hamstrung Marshawn Lynch is unavailable or limited. The Bengals boast a formidable defense. They swarmed under Alex Smith five times last Sunday and have surrendered only one 18-plus point fantasy QB in four games, Joe Flacco in Week 3. Corners Leon Hall and Pacman Jones, who each rank top-20 in pass coverage per Pro Football Focus, have given up just 8.3 yards per catch this year. Toss in Seattle's struggles on the road and confidence for Wilson to finish top-12 this week isn't high. Jay Cutler (at KC), Marcus Mariota (vs. Buf) and Philip Rivers (vs. Pit) are more attractive alternatives.

Fearless Forecast: 19-31, 215 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interception, 38 rushing yards, 15.4 fantasy points

In the bold print, if this is the case, then Kirkpatrick must be terrible or our safeties are. We gave up 380 passing yards last week. We have been giving up passing yards to Flacco the week before. If our secondary is getting lit up like this, and Jones and Hall rank top 20 among CB's, then Kirkpatrick and our safeties have to be terrible, right?

At any rate, let's hope the streak continues and Wilson has a day that is projected above. 215 yards with only 38 yards rushing means their offense struggled as long as our run defense keeps playing like it has. It will be tough to score on Seattle with Kam back anyways, so we have to hope their offensive woes continue.

I've been upset with some of the passing yards, but I think you have to put some of it in context. The Bengals have been losing for about 3 minutes through 4 games. They've given up a boatload of yards when they've been up more than 2 scores.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

So you think that would make it somewhat easier to defend knowing the opposing team has to throw the ball, you have all those 1st round picks in the secondary, and you had been stopping them prior to the onslaught of yards. Why not just play the same aggressive defense and see if they can beat your really good corners? If they start beating them, then by all means, ease off a little. We go into conservative mode too early in the game once we get up. Start jamming WR's at the LOS with our good pass rush and force the opposing QB to force balls or throw them away.

We are playing too far off the play makers and giving them too many catches underneath. Jam at the line, play more man with the outside corners and pressure that QB to force bad decisions.

 

[cincygrad]

So you think that would make it somewhat easier to defend knowing the opposing team has to throw the ball, you have all those 1st round picks in the secondary, and you had been stopping them prior to the onslaught of yards. Why not just play the same aggressive defense and see if they can beat your really good corners? If they start beating them, then by all means, ease off a little. We go into conservative mode too early in the game once we get up. Start jamming WR's at the LOS with our good pass rush and force the opposing QB to force balls or throw them away.

We are playing too far off the play makers and giving them too many catches underneath. Jam at the line, play more man with the outside corners and pressure that QB to force bad decisions.

I don't know what to tell you Crash..... Look at the teams in the NFL with the highest point differentials (on the good side). I'd bet that you would find that they don't rate very well in pass defense, but they do rate highly in in scoring defense. It's just how the game is played.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Cardinals +75 -- 306.8 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #5
Patriots +49 -- 368.7 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #20
Bengals +44 -- 364.8 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #19
Falcons +44 -- 390.5 YPG /Passing defense Ranked #28
Jets +40 -- 280.2 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #3
Packers +42 -- 312 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #8
Panthers +37 -- 339 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #10
Broncos +28 -- 275.5 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #1

Those Cardinals are pretty awesome from an offensive stand point and defensive stand point. Defenses are much worse than they used to be. That Bronco defense is pretty lights out also.

I guess we are middle of the pack, but with so many 1st round picks back there, I would think we would play some more aggressive defense in the passing game. Jam those WR's, put pressure on the QB, force them to have to make pin point throws if they are going to throw that quick slant with pressure in their face and WR's being jammed at the LOS. Put the pressure on a few of these non-elite QB's like Alex Smith or a Joe Flacco with limited weapons on the outside.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think with some of the leads, the plan has been to keep everything in front of them. Yeah, they'll give up some chunk plays, which they'll want to fix, but they won't allow a team to just get back into the game on 1 big play.

Just a thought.

 

[cincygrad]

I think with some of the leads, the plan has been to keep everything in front of them. Yeah, they'll give up some chunk plays, which they'll want to fix, but they won't allow a team to just get back into the game on 1 big play.

Just a thought.

The big difference between us and some of the teams up there is that we've been leading the entire season. Atlanta is a good comparison as they've also probably played several of their wins with a 2 score or more lead for much of the game.

 

[cincygrad]

We're in the top 10 in points allowed.

If that stat holds through 17 weeks of football, this will be a damn tough team. With our offense, anything in the top 15 of scoring would be a tremendous asset.

 

[Cincyfan78]

We're in the top 10 in points allowed.

If that stat holds through 17 weeks of football, this will be a damn tough team. With our offense, anything in the top 15 of scoring would be a tremendous asset.

If they can stay healthy going into the Bye, Burfict will be a huge boost. They nearly took him off PUP to start the season, but opted to be safe and have him 100% ready, and 100% physically ready as well. Not just his knee, but football shape. He'll get 2 weeks to practice leading into the steelers game, and without Ben, or with a potentially limited Ben, his return will be a huge boost. If for nothing else, just attitude and moral.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Cardinals +75 -- 306.8 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #5
Patriots +49 -- 368.7 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #20
Bengals +44 -- 364.8 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #19
Falcons +44 -- 390.5 YPG /Passing defense Ranked #28
Jets +40 -- 280.2 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #3
Packers +42 -- 312 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #8
Panthers +37 -- 339 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #10
Broncos +28 -- 275.5 YPG / Passing defense Ranked #1

Those Cardinals are pretty awesome from an offensive stand point and defensive stand point. Defenses are much worse than they used to be. That Bronco defense is pretty lights out also.

I guess we are middle of the pack, but with so many 1st round picks back there, I would think we would play some more aggressive defense in the passing game. Jam those WR's, put pressure on the QB, force them to have to make pin point throws if they are going to throw that quick slant with pressure in their face and WR's being jammed at the LOS. Put the pressure on a few of these non-elite QB's like Alex Smith or a Joe Flacco with limited weapons on the outside.

I actually screwed this list up...this was completely overall defense, as I thought I had switched to passing defense, so it is no wonder passing defenses look so much worse.

The Bengals actually have a worse ranked passing defense than 19th at 27th.

Broncos still have the #1 ranked pass defense with only 185 passing yards being allowed.

 

[cincygrad]

If they can stay healthy going into the Bye, Burfict will be a huge boost. They nearly took him off PUP to start the season, but opted to be safe and have him 100% ready, and 100% physically ready as well. Not just his knee, but football shape. He'll get 2 weeks to practice leading into the steelers game, and without Ben, or with a potentially limited Ben, his return will be a huge boost. If for nothing else, just attitude and moral.

I'm not expecting much out of Burfict this season. I think if we've learned anything from the Geno and Leon injuries it's that guys need a lot of time (even on the field) to get back to form. My fear with Burfict is that while he'll lend some attitude to the team, I wonder if he'll be able to control his temper when his body isn't fully capable of doing what his brain wants him to do. I can see him taking it out on the other team (illegally). But if by some miracle of modern medicine he comes back close to 100%, this defense would be great.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Yeah, playing from ahead, and playing to keep plays in front of you trends into the bend/don't break defense. I'd rather seem the stone offenses straight up, but also with a 14+ point lead in the 4th, the smart thing to do is to keep plays in front (not a true prevent defense, though...that stuff sucks) and not to allow teams back into it with a big play.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'm not expecting much out of Burfict this season. I think if we've learned anything from the Geno and Leon injuries it's that guys need a lot of time (even on the field) to get back to form. My fear with Burfict is that while he'll lend some attitude to the team, I wonder if he'll be able to control his temper when his body isn't fully capable of doing what his brain wants him to do. I can see him taking it out on the other team (illegally). But if by some miracle of modern medicine he comes back close to 100%, this defense would be great.

Well, I think we know that if he can't do what he needs to physically, he won't be on the field much. However, he can't be worse than Lamur at this point. I believe he's graded out negatively in just about every game.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Yeah, playing from ahead, and playing to keep plays in front of you trends into the bend/don't break defense. I'd rather seem the stone offenses straight up, but also with a 14+ point lead in the 4th, the smart thing to do is to keep plays in front (not a true prevent defense, though...that stuff sucks) and not to allow teams back into it with a big play.

I don't mind that defense in the 4th quarter if we are up by 14+. It is when it occurs at the end of the 1st quarter or 2nd quarter because we are already up 14 points and teams then come back and make it close by halftime and halfway through the 3rd quarter. Then we have to go back to blow down the doors offense to regain that scoring distance in the 4th. Someday we will not be able to do that in the 4th quarter and it is going to bite us in the ass with a loss or two.