Someone talk me out of it!

[ducky]

In a 3 person keeper league.

I have a pretty solid keeper core in McCaffery, Jefferson and Wilson. With my 4th round pick I will be grabbing a RB. Probably Javonte Williams. Either Cooks are my fall backs.

And then with my 5th round pick, I am about to get cute. And probably stupid.

In my league, we WAY overdraft QB's. And that is especially true of young QB's. I already know that by the time my 5th round pick comes around, the top 7 QB's will be gone.

And for some reason I have convinced myself that guys like Lawrence, Prescott, Cousins dont have a shot at the top 5 QB placement this year. But the one QB who I feel does have a shot is going to be Anthony Richardson. So he is the guy I plan to target with that 5th round pick. I feel like he is going to struggle big time with his throwing.....but he is a almost a cinch to run for 800+ yards and 5-10 TD's.

Convince me that this is a bad idea.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

could prob take him in the 7th or 8th rd

 

[leftypower]

Personally, I think TLaw will be a top 10 guy, he has a heck of supporting cast. .... you're probably correct on the other two. As for Richardson, outside of Taylor and Pittman the well runs dry pretty quickly.so you're really banking heavily on what he does rushing. Just my opinion.

 

[averagejoe]

Hi. Your resident rookie hater here.
Horrible idea to draft a rookie QB as your primary starter.

John Elway had a terrible rookie season.
Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions his rookie season.

In recent history...
Trevor Lawrence had 17 interceptions vs only 12 passing TD. (1st overall)
Justin Fields was dreadful. 1870 passing yards, 7 TD and only 420 rush yards.
Joe Burrow had 2688 passing yards and only 13 TD. (1st overall)

 

[ducky]

could prob take him in the 7th or 8th rd

I just know our league and how the people in it draft. This is our 25th year anniversary this year. So a lot of experience.

And the last 3 or 4 years, where every league is drafting their 9th and 10th QB in round 8 or 9, we are always drafting ours in the 6th or 7th or there abouts.

A lot of guys will see the same thing I am seeing....a real difference between the 8th-10th QB while and not want to miss out and be stuck with the 11th-14th QB (12 team league).

 

[MilkSpiller22]

In a 3 person keeper league.

I have a pretty solid keeper core in McCaffery, Jefferson and Wilson. With my 4th round pick I will be grabbing a RB. Probably Javonte Williams. Either Cooks are my fall backs.

And then with my 5th round pick, I am about to get cute. And probably stupid.

In my league, we WAY overdraft QB's. And that is especially true of young QB's. I already know that by the time my 5th round pick comes around, the top 7 QB's will be gone.

And for some reason I have convinced myself that guys like Lawrence, Prescott, Cousins dont have a shot at the top 5 QB placement this year. But the one QB who I feel does have a shot is going to be Anthony Richardson. So he is the guy I plan to target with that 5th round pick. I feel like he is going to struggle big time with his throwing.....but he is a almost a cinch to run for 800+ yards and 5-10 TD's.

Convince me that this is a bad idea.

im all in on taking a risk on a player... but no need to do it so early... especially when there is a big difference between ADP and where you plan on taking him....

 

[Shanemansj13]

ARich might stat pad those rushing yards but he has a big learning curve passing wise. It will take a lot of time and development. I would take TLaw or Cousins over him any day

 

[TKOSpikes]

In a 3 person keeper league.

I have a pretty solid keeper core in McCaffery, Jefferson and Wilson. With my 4th round pick I will be grabbing a RB. Probably Javonte Williams. Either Cooks are my fall backs.

And then with my 5th round pick, I am about to get cute. And probably stupid.

In my league, we WAY overdraft QB's. And that is especially true of young QB's. I already know that by the time my 5th round pick comes around, the top 7 QB's will be gone.

And for some reason I have convinced myself that guys like Lawrence, Prescott, Cousins dont have a shot at the top 5 QB placement this year. But the one QB who I feel does have a shot is going to be Anthony Richardson. So he is the guy I plan to target with that 5th round pick. I feel like he is going to struggle big time with his throwing.....but he is a almost a cinch to run for 800+ yards and 5-10 TD's.

Convince me that this is a bad idea.

Not over Lawerence, but I would take AR over the others just for the upside possibility.

 

[ducky]

Hi. Your resident rookie hater here.
Horrible idea to draft a rookie QB as your primary starter.

John Elway had a terrible rookie season.
Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions his rookie season.

In recent history...
Trevor Lawrence had 17 interceptions vs only 12 passing TD. (1st overall)
Justin Fields was dreadful. 1870 passing yards, 7 TD and only 420 rush yards.
Joe Burrow had 2688 passing yards and only 13 TD. (1st overall)

This was the post I needed to change my mind. I went back and looked at Lamar and he needed a year too.

Of course my draft is in 11 days and so I will change my mind 11 times between now and then.

 

[eaglesnut]

In a 3 person keeper league.

I have a pretty solid keeper core in McCaffery, Jefferson and Wilson. With my 4th round pick I will be grabbing a RB. Probably Javonte Williams. Either Cooks are my fall backs.

And then with my 5th round pick, I am about to get cute. And probably stupid.

In my league, we WAY overdraft QB's. And that is especially true of young QB's. I already know that by the time my 5th round pick comes around, the top 7 QB's will be gone.

And for some reason I have convinced myself that guys like Lawrence, Prescott, Cousins dont have a shot at the top 5 QB placement this year. But the one QB who I feel does have a shot is going to be Anthony Richardson. So he is the guy I plan to target with that 5th round pick. I feel like he is going to struggle big time with his throwing.....but he is a almost a cinch to run for 800+ yards and 5-10 TD's.

Convince me that this is a bad idea.

How in fucking hell is Lawrence not capable of top 5 in Pederson's offense with all those weapons???

Sounds like in your league he'll be gone anyway, but your plan sounds dumb.

Are passing tds only worth 3 and running 6??

You can stream comparable QBs and I'm not a Richardson hater.

Go watch every single play of his from last year, and that might stop you...

 

[eaglesnut]

Hi. Your resident rookie hater here.
Horrible idea to draft a rookie QB as your primary starter.

John Elway had a terrible rookie season.
Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions his rookie season.

In recent history...
Trevor Lawrence had 17 interceptions vs only 12 passing TD. (1st overall)
Justin Fields was dreadful. 1870 passing yards, 7 TD and only 420 rush yards.
Joe Burrow had 2688 passing yards and only 13 TD. (1st overall)

Burrow did that in half a season. But he was way more ready for this league than Richardson.

 

[leftypower]

I just know our league and how the people in it draft. This is our 25th year anniversary this year. So a lot of experience.

And the last 3 or 4 years, where every league is drafting their 9th and 10th QB in round 8 or 9, we are always drafting ours in the 6th or 7th or there abouts.
A lot of guys will see the same thing I am seeing....a real difference between the 8th-10th QB while and not want to miss out and be stuck with the 11th-14th QB (12 team league).

Yep, if you want one of the elite (Mahomes, Hurts, Allen or Burrows) your gonna have to grab early. As I see it, after those guys there are 5-6 who arguable could be at #5 in scoring - but I just don't see Richardson being one of them. ..... It is also likely that in the 5-10 group. the difference in fantasy pts will be minimal. ......
*** bear in mind, this comes from someone who's been right about 50% of times, so wrong just as often as right.

 

[femurov]

If your league is grabbing QBs so early, you want to pivot and grab RBs and WRs. Wait until later and grab 2 or even 3 QBs late to take a stab at. I assume that they all don't hoard QBs and even if you wait until the very last rounds, there will be a couple of dart throws with the same chances of success as Richardson. Kyler Murray may be someone to target in that scenario. Especially if you can throw him on IR and grab someone undrafted.

 

[TREFF]

Rookie QBs...not a great plan. As Joe pointed out, and it evidently struck home, they more often than not, suck, fantasy wise.

Best rookie QB performances-
Herbert 2020 - 4300 and 31
Cam Newton - 4000 and 21 + 700 and 14
Probably the only guys who were truly startable QB's, weekly, as rookies since fantasy became a thing.
Then there's
RW 2012- 3100 and 22 + 500 and 4
RG3 2012- 3200 and 20 + 800 and 5
After those two who weren't bad in a pinch but probably not your best bets. Only way you were starting these guys were if you were desperate, or just plain silly.
after that it gets really sparse-
Mayfield 2018 - 3700 and 27
Prescott 2016 - 3600 and 23 + 300 and 6
Hell even Mac Jones' rookie season gets a nod in most circles as being up there, and had a game with only 3 pass attempts in it.
After that, it gets pretty ugly, like forget starting these guys, not even rosterable in a redraft.

Rookie QB's, with VERY rare exception, are only long term investments, so unless your prepared to marry this guy for multiple seasons, he shouldn't be anywhere near the top of your list.