RB life, after the top 4

[Nosferatu]

Whats tough for me is I draft last in my league this year so all the top backs are likely to be gone, although Ball should be there, but I have thought about picking two top receivers at 10 & 11.

I don't like taking 2nd tier backs thus leaving the best receivers for the guys who already drafted the best backs.

 

[wilwhite]

Nosferatu - The first-drafted backs aren't necessarily the best backs. Forte was the 11th RB in last year's ADP - mostly because the Trestman effect was underappreciated. He was taken after Spiller, Rice, and TRich, who were all awful.

 

[averagejoe]

How about this approach... both Ball and Lacy are on top-notch offensive teams:

Broncos: Demaryius, Welker, Sanders, Julius & Ball.
Packers: Nelson, Cobb, Quarless & Lacy

Maybe it isn't scientific, but just looking at distribution, Lacy figures to be be included more on the offense since there's less mouths to feed.

 

[averagejoe]

Bernard shouldn't be touched in the second round. He's a very talented runner, but I'm not sure he is going to be a traditional starter. I think he'll be the head of a running back by committee. There is just too much competition in that backfield. I might take him as a flex in the fourth or fifth, but I doubt he'll be available there.

Disagree completely. Being used "sparingly" last season in Jay Gruden's offense, Bernard still managed 43% of the Bengals carries. This year, Hue Jackson is his OC, and Jackson has a reputation for running the ball excessively - top 10 in both attempts and yards the last 2 seasons.

As for the RBBC, Hill is hurt and the law-firm is a shell of himself. All signs point to Bernard getting a ton of work. It can't hurt that A.J. Green will keep defenses honest too.

 

[TREFF]

Disagree completely. Being used "sparingly" last season in Jay Gruden's offense, Bernard still managed 43% of the Bengals carries. This year, Hue Jackson is his OC, and Jackson has a reputation for running the ball excessively - top 10 in both attempts and yards the last 2 seasons.

As for the RBBC, Hill is hurt and the law-firm is a shell of himself. All signs point to Bernard getting a ton of work. It can't hurt that A.J. Green will keep defenses honest too.

not that hard to see unfold. . It's all right there, no idea what some are watching, but it ain't what's happening.

 

[leftypower]

I think Ball will do fine and likely be a top 5, but I don't think he is the second coming of AP. I looked at stats over the years and Peyton's RB's average around 240 carries + 50-60 receptions.
Generally, totaling 10-14 TDs. I'd be very happy to have that on my team - - but Charles, Shady and AP are more than capable of the same - in fact, they've already done so.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

I think Ball will do fine and likely be a top 5, but I don't think he is the second coming of AP. I looked at stats over the years and Peyton's RB's average around 240 carries + 50-60 receptions.
Generally, totaling 10-14 TDs. I'd be very happy to have that on my team - - but Charles, Shady and AP are more than capable of the same - in fact, they've already done so.

I agree. I think it's asinine to rank ball above ap, Charles, and McCoy. Ball could be an rb 1, but he won't have the opportunity that ap, Charles, and McCoy have. I'd also put forte clearly above him. People forget what the eagles offense did last year. They ran the most plays in the nfl. They will do the same this year and McCoy will be the centerpiece of that. Sproles was brought in to be a change of pace back. He's not going to get many more carries than mccoys back ups did last year. Charles, forte, and ap will be the beneficiaries of great offensive minds in Reid, Trestman, and norv. Ball could be an rb1, but I still have my reservations about him. Either way, his ceiling is definitely lower than the aforementioned 4 running backs barring any injuries.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Denver & more importantly Manning says he trusts Ball to block for him now.
Then Denver got rid of all Balls competition, so even if Ball struggles with a blocking assignment early they will work through it.
Who is gonna replace him that they would trust more?

I am pretty sure Denver has made their bed with Ball. He is their guy this year.
I would take Ball over Lacy in a PPR.

 

[wilwhite]

Hue Jackson is his OC, and Jackson has a reputation for running the ball excessively

You mean the dude who called 58% pass plays as the Falcons OC? (Okay, maybe not fair, that was mostly Petrino, but still... the Raider years are the only two years out of his entire career in both the NFL and USC where he was a rush-oriented play caller - and that was for an offense that when he came in was still trying to build its passing game around JaMarcus Russell. He was actually brought in for that, because he had been a QB whisperer for Flacco - but JaMarcus didn't even make it through spring.)

By the way, Hue spent two years as the running backs coach for the Redskins before taking over as OC in 2003. The 2003 Redskins were 22nd in rushing attempts.

Hue was the RB coach for the Bengals last year, and as the new OC, I have to assume he was instrumental in them spending a second-round pick on Hill. (This is his second stint with the Bengals, by the way - the first time he spent three years as WR coach.)

Now I like Gio plenty and have him in my top 12, but there's no reason to think Hue is going to somehow turn this into a run-first offense. That's really not his thing - he was just playing the hand he was dealt in Oakland. This is a very different hand.

 

[tlance]

Whats tough for me is I draft last in my league this year so all the top backs are likely to be gone, although Ball should be there, but I have thought about picking two top receivers at 10 & 11.

I don't like taking 2nd tier backs thus leaving the best receivers for the guys who already drafted the best backs.

Nos,

I have drafted 12th in both leagues I have been in. I was praying that Monte Ball would make it to me. I knew it would not happen in MBBRL, but I thought I had a shot in my other league. I did not get him there either.

If Ball is available to you at 10, you should take him. The WR/WR approach works best after the top RBs are gone. Ball is a top RB. If you can pair him with either Dez or D. Thomas, you will have a better 1-2 punch than any other team in your league because the teams drafting in the top 5 will not land as good a WR.

I would not draft ball ahead of the top 3, Lacy or Forte, but I would absolutely take him ahead of everybody else.

 

[Barilko]

Monkey im with Treff (grab Lacy)Ball may fall to ya

However with that being said is it worth taking Dez or D Thomas or Megatron (whichever you value most) and have Ball still fall to ya

risky i'm sure but if you think Ball may fall when you take Lacy then logically if you take WR --Lacy is still there after your pick and you may even trigger a short burst of Wr picks and thus boost your chances of getting Ball in 2

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Monkey im with Treff (grab Lacy)Ball may fall to ya

However with that being said is it worth taking Dez or D Thomas or Megatron (whichever you value most) and have Ball still fall to ya

risky i'm sure but if you think Ball may fall when you take Lacy then logically if you take WR --Lacy is still there after your pick and you may even trigger a short burst of Wr picks and thus boost your chances of getting Ball in 2

I agree completely - been trying to get a good gauge of what the other owners are gonna do in rd 1, but 2 of the guys behind me weren't doing anything to tip their hand. I know for sure that at least 3 of the owners in front of me will take a RB, but the other guy has a mega Peyton boner.

Alternatively - the owner with the #12 pick overall wants to jump up into the top 3 in order to draft Peyton. Might be dangling pick #5 his way to see what else he'd throw into the deal. Would love to get Ball at 12th spot, and I think he'll fall that far.

No matter what, if Forte or AP are sitting in my lap at #5, there's my pick.

 

[Barilko]

I agree completely - been trying to get a good gauge of what the other owners are gonna do in rd 1, but 2 of the guys behind me weren't doing anything to tip their hand. I know for sure that at least 3 of the owners in front of me will take a RB, but the other guy has a mega Peyton boner.

Alternatively - the owner with the #12 pick overall wants to jump up into the top 3 in order to draft Peyton. Might be dangling pick #5 his way to see what else he'd throw into the deal. Would love to get Ball at 12th spot, and I think he'll fall that far.

No matter what, if Forte or AP are sitting in my lap at #5, there's my pick.

Keep us up to date i like it should be interesting

when is the draft

 

[SmokingMonkey]

draft is tomorrow after work.
cool sports bar in STL that caters to the fantasy crowd, for all sports.

 

[Barilko]

draft is tomorrow after work.
cool sports bar in STL that caters to the fantasy crowd, for all sports.

nice my Fellow Quebecois have yet to catch the live sportsbar fantasy thing

I take my draft there yet no perks are donated

except a night out away from the dragons

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Just in case any one was wondering, best case scenario played out tonight:

1) Lacy
2) Ball
3) VJax
4) Roddy White
5) Ryan Mathews
6) Gerhart
7) Terrance Williams
8) Kelvin Benjamin
9) Tom Brady
10) Justin Hunter
11) Ladarius Green
12) BigBen
13) Josh Gordon
14) Patriots DST
15) Marquise Lee
16) James White

I opted to not draft a K to start the year off, thinking once I find out that Gordon is suspended for the entire season, I'll drop him for a K.

All in all, although I am a little weak at starting WRs, love my team here. I really wanted to take a chance on a couple younger RBs later in the draft, but when Gerhart was still on the board, I couldn't pass him up as my RB4. Didn't really love any of the WRs out there at that point anyway.

 

[TREFF]

Pretty sweet looking team Monkey.. like you said the WR'S are the weak point, but even that ain't too bad.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Love your rbs. Like your QB. Like your TE. HATE your Wrs. I think you'll be in playoff contention, but without some savvy moves, you'll probably be the third or fourth best team if you make the playoffs. However, it doesn't matter after you make it. It's just who's the best team on each given week after that.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

thanks guys - my favorite part of the draft - the rest of the league nominated my 2nd round pick of Ball as the worst pick in the round, so I got a free shot of tequila.

as if that's a punishment!

 

[ehb5]

I had the same league set-up and the same top four players drafted in my league but I had the sixth pick. Guy picking fifth took Peyton so I took Calvin but I would've taken Calvin at 5 anyways.