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Question for the gambling experts

msgkings322

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Let's say the bookmaker really likes a team to win, for this example let's say the Eagles. Will they purposefully set the line so that it favors the Niners, to bring in more money on the Niners hoping they lose? Or do they always try to make the bets on each side close to equal and just make money on the vig?
 

Batman

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I believe its the latter.

They are in it to make money.
If they had more faith in their betting abilities than their bookmaking abilities, they would be gamblers, not bookmakers.
 

Manster7588

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Let's say the bookmaker really likes a team to win, for this example let's say the Eagles. Will they purposefully set the line so that it favors the Niners, to bring in more money on the Niners hoping they lose? Or do they always try to make the bets on each side close to equal and just make money on the vig?
No. The book doesn't care who wins, they make the line off what they believe will bring in even money. The books make their money off the VIG not the final score.
 

Beaker

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Businesses that facilitate gambling are, ironically, the most adverse to risk. Any bookie that does what you describe will find themselves bust in the long run
 

msgkings322

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Thanks all, great answers :clap:
 

fastforward

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I worked in what was the nerve centre of a major UK Sportsbook in the 1980s. They were absolutely trying to balance liabilities and collect the vig. Obviously that's not always possible, but it's the main objective. When I started there all soccer was handled by Mick E. Mick left with some of the senior staff to join the start-up SIS broadcasting as their on-screen soccer odds analyst. He was replaced at the sportsbook by Joe F. Joe was a known successful soccer gambler but he didn't have a background as a bookie. His strategy was to to post odds at the market edge on the side he wanted to lay.
[For simplicity if the market public odds on a team ranged from +135 to +150 He would post the maximum +150 if he liked the other side and +135 if he though that side would win. Obviously he'd take the reverse position on the reverse side. Normal company policy for a major market leader is to be in the middle +140 to +145 range because the public didn't have access to every book, there wasn't on-line gambling in the UK, and because line-shopping wasn't such a big thing for the general public]
Basically he was told over and over not to do this and the principles of being 'the house' was explained to him. Joe just wouldn't stick to it. Effectively he was betting against the public. Inevitably, and very quickly, he hit a losing streak and he was shit-canned. Books want consistent monthly results not financial roller-coaster rides.
 

jarntt

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The other thing they will do in an attempt to get somewhat even money bet on both sides and try to ensure that they "win" the vig is lay money with another sports book to minimize their exposure t oa big loss/win. But, if the line moves a lot this can be easier said than done.
 

fightinfunbags

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If you’re a Niners fan and you believe that line movements can tell the future as many who gamble believe, you like the way this has developed. 68% of the bets are on the Philly side and about 80% of the money. After an initial change in the line towards the Eagles, it has settled in at -2.5 despite Philly still taking the majority of the money. In theory, this line should have been moved to 3 or 3.5. The fact that it hasn’t COULD (no guarantees in gambling) signal that oddsmakers think Niners are the side here and are protected despite the money being so uneven.
 

jarntt

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If you’re a Niners fan and you believe that line movements can tell the future as many who gamble believe, you like the way this has developed. 68% of the bets are on the Philly side and about 80% of the money. After an initial change in the line towards the Eagles, it has settled in at -2.5 despite Philly still taking the majority of the money. In theory, this line should have been moved to 3 or 3.5. The fact that it hasn’t COULD (no guarantees in gambling) signal that oddsmakers think Niners are the side here and are protected despite the money being so uneven.
I don't understand why it didn't open at Philly -3 or -4 in the first place. Seems an obvious bet to me at anything under 3
 

Janus

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Bookies always start from a -3 base. It's the money that moves the line from there. Some agencies ( like Draft Kings ) offer house money as a way to lower their risks. Some have a demand like a parley and the games they offer are not high-risk games, so they have a better chance to break even.
Gambling is tough, sometimes it pays but ya have to know when to stop.
 

fightinfunbags

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I don't understand why it didn't open at Philly -3 or -4 in the first place. Seems an obvious bet to me at anything under 3
I read recently that oddsmakers have abandoned the traditional 3 points being given to home teams right off the bat and now it approximates 1.5-2 points for being the home team. Maybe that has something to do with it. Additionally, I also read that Vegas has been pretty off handicapping SF this year and they’re very good against the spread. If Vegas is continually getting beat by a team they tend to swing that pendulum the other way and sometimes in recalibrating taking the line too long. For me, I think the number is so tight, your bet should be placed based on who you think wins the game outright. So if I’m concluding the Niners are the side, I take the +128 number on the Niners outright. If I’m on the Eagles, I don’t sweat betting the -2.5.

I’m not betting this game. I hate betting my own team. I don’t think I can adequately judge what accounts for my heart and what accounts for my head in my analysis of a game involving my teams.
 

jarntt

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Bookies always start from a -3 base. It's the money that moves the line from there. Some agencies ( like Draft Kings ) offer house money as a way to lower their risks. Some have a demand like a parley and the games they offer are not high-risk games, so they have a better chance to break even.
Gambling is tough, sometimes it pays but ya have to know when to stop.
Unless I'm misunderstanding what you are saying, that's not true

Are you saying every spread opens at -3? Or are you alluding to the constantly stated fallacy that the home team ALWAYS gets exactly 3 points which is only somewhat off. There are different HFAs. If anyone wants to say the Chargers get the same 3 points at home as the Broncos used to a few years back when they played much better at home, they would be wrong.
 

jarntt

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I read recently that oddsmakers have abandoned the traditional 3 points being given to home teams right off the bat and now it approximates 1.5-2 points for being the home team. Maybe that has something to do with it. Additionally, I also read that Vegas has been pretty off handicapping SF this year and they’re very good against the spread. If Vegas is continually getting beat by a team they tend to swing that pendulum the other way and sometimes in recalibrating taking the line too long. For me, I think the number is so tight, your bet should be placed based on who you think wins the game outright. So if I’m concluding the Niners are the side, I take the +128 number on the Niners outright. If I’m on the Eagles, I don’t sweat betting the -2.5.

I’m not betting this game. I hate betting my own team. I don’t think I can adequately judge what accounts for my heart and what accounts for my head in my analysis of a game involving my teams.
Funny. Read my next post. Totally agree. Why people keep saying 3 points I don't understand. It's done game by game.
 

fightinfunbags

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Funny. Read my next post. Totally agree. Why people keep saying 3 points I don't understand. It's done game by game.
Ha! I did. I’m too long winded so I type fucking essays to have us pretty much say the same thing.
 

Iggloo

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They're trying to get 50/50 money on both sides so they collect the vig

This is the traditional logic. If you can get even money on both sides of the proposition as the house, you win no matter what. And that is a big part of what influences line moves, in theory.

But in practice it does not always work out that way. I read that the majority of the money tomorrow is on the Eagles for example even though the spread is under 3 points on most boards. Not sure I totally understand why the line hasn't moved more as a result.
 

jarntt

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As far as betting on Philly if I were you, I don't let that bother me if it's my team or not when it comes to betting. I always try to bet with my head. Now I am actually more likely to bet against my team than for them because I figure if I think my team winning is the bet I still "win" if they win the game and if it's the opposite I can tell myself at least I won money as a consolation prize. But I always root with my heart and not for my bets. I'll give you an example of how I bet. Obviously I would have loved to have seen the Eagles lose every game this year. But, I have already won way more money on them than any other NFL team and it's not close. In addition t weekly bets I already won on 'over 9.5 wins' and 'over 10.5 wins' (neither of these were high odds of course) and on them winning the division (a small bet before and a bigger bet the second they traded for AJ Brown). I also have them winning the NFC Championship game (not too much) and a few bets on them winning the SB. One made very early on in the season and then others made as recently as a week ago the night they had already beat the Giants and Mahomes went down. My thinking was it was a tossup between the 3 AFC teams left and SF and Dallas still had to play. Philly's odds should have been the lowest by far at that particular point in time. If they win the SB I will have won thousands on them (due to the odds, I didn't bet thousands). But in true NFCE division rival fashion, I hope they lose and lose badly. I won't remember the money a year from now either way.
 

Cedrique

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This is the traditional logic. If you can get even money on both sides of the proposition as the house, you win no matter what. And that is a big part of what influences line moves, in theory.

But in practice it does not always work out that way. I read that the majority of the money tomorrow is on the Eagles for example even though the spread is under 3 points on most boards. Not sure I totally understand why the line hasn't moved more as a result.
I think it's a little more of a risk to move it from 2.5 to 3 than some other numbers. What if they move it to 3 and they do get a bunch more 49ers money, then the Eagles end up winning by 3? The Niners bettors push and the Eagles bettors win. That's ain't good.
 
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