Probably should ask on Warriors board

[msgkings322]

Hey MSG, the dubs are still rolling

Hope they keep this nice road trip going

Curry and Lee playing outta their mind

I noticed yeah, it's a fun team to watch, young and playing well. Interesting to see if Bogut comes back and makes them better or messes up the groove. You have to think better, as long as he just tries to do what Ezeli does only better.

I think I heard their start this year is their best since 1991. It's still going to be a dogfight for those last 2 playoff slots but they have as good a chance as anyone.

I'm more of a Bulls fan and until Rose comes back the W's are much more fun to watch.

 

[MacJ88]

Steph has been a real joy to watch this year, I don't think I have ever seen a Warriors player with the ability to release the ball so quickly with such accuracy. At the end of the day, David Lee is the heart and soul of the Warriors in my opinion. Dude has a motor and plays with a ton of heart, he's the type of player that has had to earn everything given to him in this league. The three rookies have been a real blessing for the Dubs as well, Harrison Barnes has been inconsistent, which is expected, but you can see the athleticism, skill and potential that he possesses. Festus Ezeli is a rebounding blocking machine, your prototypical backup big man and he has become extremely valuable since Andrew Bogut can't stay on the floor. Draymond Green is probably the most overlooked out of the three but he is starting to gain some recognition as an energy guy, he is a great rebounder and I can see him being a Bruce Bowen type shutdown defender for years to come. The 3 rookies alone have dramatically improved the Warriors playoff chances, something that I thought took a huge hit since B. Rush and Bogut went down but this team is very much in this thing. I feel odd posting my two cents regarding the Warriors on the Giants board lol, especially since nobody asked for it but there ya go. Have a good one fellas.

 

[tzill]

I noticed yeah, it's a fun team to watch, young and playing well. Interesting to see if Bogut comes back and makes them better or messes up the groove. You have to think better, as long as he just tries to do what Ezeli does only better.

I think I heard their start this year is their best since 1991. It's still going to be a dogfight for those last 2 playoff slots but they have as good a chance as anyone.

I'm more of a Bulls fan and until Rose comes back the W's are much more fun to watch.

First, Festus barely plays. He gets 8 minutes to start the game and about 4 minutes thereafter. Bogut is worlds more effective (and will play 3x the minutes).

Second, if they can't stop the massive turnover problem and hit their FTs at a decent rate, they won't make the playoffs. Bogut should help a great deal, but may not be back until February.

 

[msgkings322]

First, Festus barely plays. He gets 8 minutes to start the game and about 4 minutes thereafter. Bogut is worlds more effective (and will play 3x the minutes).

Second, if they can't stop the massive turnover problem and hit their FTs at a decent rate, they won't make the playoffs. Bogut should help a great deal, but may not be back until February.

Good point re Bogut and Ezeli, should improve the team when he gets back.

As for your other point, I think you're being too reductive. I know even less about basketball than I do about baseball (which isn't much) but it seems to me every team, even good ones, have a metric you can point to and say 'well if they don't do better on the boards/FG %/bench scoring/whatever they won't make the playoffs'.

The fact is the Ws have won 2/3 of their games, including some good teams they've beaten, and some road wins, with the team they have. And as you pointed out they will get better with Bogut. Of course doing better on their free throws and making fewer turnovers would help, but clearly they are doing something right. It'd be like saying 'well the Giants have to hit some HRs or they won't make the playoffs'. I just don't think you can make such a blanket statement.

 

[SFAnthem]

I noticed yeah, it's a fun team to watch, young and playing well. Interesting to see if Bogut comes back and makes them better or messes up the groove. You have to think better, as long as he just tries to do what Ezeli does only better.

I think I heard their start this year is their best since 1991. It's still going to be a dogfight for those last 2 playoff slots but they have as good a chance as anyone.

I'm more of a Bulls fan and until Rose comes back the W's are much more fun to watch.

Hey that's right, you're originally a Chicagoan..Jordan is my favorite player of all time. Kobe is a great imitation of but not equal to MJ (big debate amongst my Laker fan friends)

 

[Stokes1931]

Break up the Dubs!

 

[SFAnthem]

Steph has been a real joy to watch this year, I don't think I have ever seen a Warriors player with the ability to release the ball so quickly with such accuracy. At the end of the day, David Lee is the heart and soul of the Warriors in my opinion. Dude has a motor and plays with a ton of heart, he's the type of player that has had to earn everything given to him in this league. The three rookies have been a real blessing for the Dubs as well, Harrison Barnes has been inconsistent, which is expected, but you can see the athleticism, skill and potential that he possesses. Festus Ezeli is a rebounding blocking machine, your prototypical backup big man and he has become extremely valuable since Andrew Bogut can't stay on the floor. Draymond Green is probably the most overlooked out of the three but he is starting to gain some recognition as an energy guy, he is a great rebounder and I can see him being a Bruce Bowen type shutdown defender for years to come. The 3 rookies alone have dramatically improved the Warriors playoff chances, something that I thought took a huge hit since B. Rush and Bogut went down but this team is very much in this thing. I feel odd posting my two cents regarding the Warriors on the Giants board lol, especially since nobody asked for it but there ya go. Have a good one fellas.

Harrison Barnes has basketball smarts, has good court presence.

Often good team chemistry is an easy label to give to any team that's winning but it's easy to see with this squad. Roles are more defined after the Monta trade and you can see the players starting to anticipate each others moves.

Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry deserve some credit, too.

In case you missed the Barnes dunk last month:

[YOUTUBE]LA-uCFh9E2M[/YOUTUBE]

 

[tzill]

Good point re Bogut and Ezeli, should improve the team when he gets back.

As for your other point, I think you're being too reductive. I know even less about basketball than I do about baseball (which isn't much) but it seems to me every team, even good ones, have a metric you can point to and say 'well if they don't do better on the boards/FG %/bench scoring/whatever they won't make the playoffs'.

The fact is the Ws have won 2/3 of their games, including some good teams they've beaten, and some road wins, with the team they have. And as you pointed out they will get better with Bogut. Of course doing better on their free throws and making fewer turnovers would help, but clearly they are doing something right. It'd be like saying 'well the Giants have to hit some HRs or they won't make the playoffs'. I just don't think you can make such a blanket statement.

I'm not claiming great bball knowledge, but I do watch every Ws game. If you notice, their unexpected good wins (e.g. at Brooklyn) featured minimal TOs and good FT shooting). They've been able to get away with some poor ball handling against bad teams (e.g. Wiz, Bobcats) but that won't work against decent teams.
Ditto crap FT shooting.

I'm not saying they suck, they are clearly doing a lot right. They rebound. They play defense (except for Avi Lee, who NEVER plays defense). They will be better with ball security once Bogut gets back if only because he's such a good passer.

Hopefully, Bogut gets back by February.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm not claiming great bball knowledge, but I do watch every Ws game. If you notice, their unexpected good wins (e.g. at Brooklyn) featured minimal TOs and good FT shooting). They've been able to get away with some poor ball handling against bad teams (e.g. Wiz, Bobcats) but that won't work against decent teams.
Ditto crap FT shooting.

I'm not saying they suck, they are clearly doing a lot right. They rebound. They play defense (except for Avi Lee, who NEVER plays defense). They will be better with ball security once Bogut gets back if only because he's such a good passer.

Hopefully, Bogut gets back by February.

This makes sense, agreed. They won't win 54 games (on pace to) but why not 45 and a playoff slot?

Shaq called Lee 'White Chris Webber' (on a show where Webber was right there, laughing). But it's pretty apt, similar stat lines. Webber was a better passer by far, one of the best ever for a power forward. Lee maybe a better rebounder. Neither known for defense.

 

[CameronFrye]

14-7 without Bogut and a patchwork defense. I don't agree with everything Jackson is doing (going small against teams like Orlando) but the man has dramatically improved this team. I still think the improved "defense" the Warriors are playing is more just better understanding of scheme than players actually improving under their own hoop, but if it works, then who am I to argue. Go Dubs!

 

[Heathbar012]

14-7 without Bogut and a patchwork defense. I don't agree with everything Jackson is doing (going small against teams like Orlando) but the man has dramatically improved this team. I still think the improved "defense" the Warriors are playing is more just better understanding of scheme than players actually improving under their own hoop, but if it works, then who am I to argue. Go Dubs!

I think Jackson would even agree that was a mistake. The question is if he learned from it. They haven't been tested enough yet since. If Brooklyn had Lopez in the line-up, that would've been a good opportunity to find out. Why is this discussion happening on this board? I blame msg. :p

 

[msgkings322]

Just watched the Ws beat the Heat on the road...

Ready to buy in yet tzill?

If they go 30-30 the rest of the way that's 45 wins and the 6 seed in the playoffs.

 

[tzill]

Just watched the Ws beat the Heat on the road...

Ready to buy in yet tzill?

If they go 30-30 the rest of the way that's 45 wins and the 6 seed in the playoffs.

I'm enjoying the ride, but not "bought in." You have two huge suppositions here:
1. The Ws go 30-30 the rest of the way. One Curry tweak and that becomes fairly unlikely.
2. 45 wins will get the six seed. I suspect it will not.

We shall see; great fucking win tonight. Still too many dumb TOs though.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm enjoying the ride, but not "bought in." You have two huge suppositions here:
1. The Ws go 30-30 the rest of the way. One Curry tweak and that becomes fairly unlikely.
2. 45 wins will get the six seed. I suspect it will not.

We shall see; great fucking win tonight. Still too many dumb TOs though.

1. So now it's 'they're good but one injury and they're not'. Yes it's true in basketball especially you are one injury to a key player away from a big problem (look at the Bulls, or Lakers...), so sure if they lose Curry maybe they don't make the playoffs.

2. Looks like you're right there, 45 wins historically isn't enough to make the playoffs (in the West), you need about 48+. So they gotta go 33-27.

As far as turnovers? Ws had 13 last night, Miami 17. The best team in the league in that stat (Knicks) averages 11 a night. 13 would make you 3rd in the league. The Ws are kind of bad there, averaging 15.9 a night, tied with....the Thunder.

No one likes turnovers, they are like errors in baseball, they feel inexcusable. But they happen, and the Ws are winning regardless.

 

[tzill]

1. So now it's 'they're good but one injury and they're not'. Yes it's true in basketball especially you are one injury to a key player away from a big problem (look at the Bulls, or Lakers...), so sure if they lose Curry maybe they don't make the playoffs.

2. Looks like you're right there, 45 wins historically isn't enough to make the playoffs (in the West), you need about 48+. So they gotta go 33-27.

As far as turnovers? Ws had 13 last night, Miami 17. The best team in the league in that stat (Knicks) averages 11 a night. 13 would make you 3rd in the league. The Ws are kind of bad there, averaging 15.9 a night, tied with....the Thunder.

No one likes turnovers, they are like errors in baseball, they feel inexcusable. But they happen, and the Ws are winning regardless.

1. The old "all good teams are one significant injury away from being mediocre" bromide, by which you mean to paint Curry as just any other good NBA player. He isn't. He's fragile until he proves otherwise...he missed 40/66 games last year and has had multiple surgerys on his ankle. Maybe he goes all Buster Posey and is fully healthy. I hope so. But as the man says -- that ain't the way to bet.

2. I think 48 wins is about right. I think the W's can get there, but they'll need Curry for 75+ games and Bogut for 50+. Don't know that they'll get either. If they get both, they could get as high as a five seed. I don't see them catching the Spurs, Thunder, Grizz, or Clippers.

3. A classic "one counter example destroys correlation" argument. The Thunder are poor at ball protection. The Thunder are good. Therefore ball protection must not be very important to being good. You see the logical fallacy there I hope.

The thing is that you have to look further. Of the bottom ten TO teams in the league, seven are at or below .500. There's a correlation there. Is it fatal? Not if you have Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka; but maybe it IS if you have Bogut in a suit and Curry in an air cast.

Further, I don't watch many Thunder games. Perhaps you do. Without knowing for sure, I'd be willing to bet that they do not have as many "Oh my fucking G-d, what the fuck were you thinking with that pass" moments as we have had. In short, it's not just the quantity of TOs (which is a horrible amount) but also the type of TOs (e.g. lazy Curry and Lee passes) which are maddening.

Lastly, you also gloss over the distribution of TOs. We only have 22 games to look at, so the sample size is admittedly small. I did a quick check of games and graded them Plus if TOs were <= 13, Neutral if TOs = 14 or 15, and Minus if TOs were >= 16. I admit this is a bit arbitrary, and I culled those breakdowns from the rough distribution of NBA teams into thirds based on average TOs. ::handwaving disclaimer completed::

Here's what I found:
10 of the 22 games were bad, yet the W's won 8 of these.
4 neutral games, W's 2-2
8 good games, 5-3

The bad games were of most interest to me, they break down like this:
W @ PHO (18 TO), L MEM (18), W CLE (16), L @LAL (18), W ATL (23), W @DAL (20), W DEN (16), W IND (17), W @WAS (19), W @CHA (16).

Throwing out the cripple games, we are left with:

Loss to Memphis, Loss at Lakers, Win over Atlanta, Win at Dallas, Win over Denver, Win over Indiana. 4-2. So, too small a sample to draw any conclusions yet. I suspect by season's end we'll see a decent correlation between high TO games and losses. But, I could be wrong. There are the Thunder outliers.

 

[msgkings322]

You did a lot of work there tz to prove something I already agree with you about: turnovers are bad, and it would behoove the Warriors to cut down on theirs by about 2-3 fewer per game.

I guess we just disagree on how we see the team overall, I feel like this is a playoff year for them.

And of course I also agree that a major injury to a key player (Curry, Lee, maybe Thompson too) would likely mean they fall short.

 

[tzill]

You did a lot of work there tz to prove something I already agree with you about: turnovers are bad, and it would behoove the Warriors to cut down on theirs by about 2-3 fewer per game.

I guess we just disagree on how we see the team overall, I feel like this is a playoff year for them.

And of course I also agree that a major injury to a key player (Curry, Lee, maybe Thompson too) would likely mean they fall short.

But my point with Curry is that he's much more likely than the average NBA player to miss time.

Much more.

And I didn't "prove" anything. Way too small a sample. Right now, it looks like TOs don't really matter that much. I still cannot explain the Hawks game.

 

[Heathbar012]

But my point with Curry is that he's much more likely than the average NBA player to miss time.

Much more.

And I didn't "prove" anything. Way too small a sample. Right now, it looks like TOs don't really matter that much. I still cannot explain the Hawks game.

Atlanta is a bad team without Al Horford. Josh Smith was trying to do too much, and Teague is average, at best. Neither team played well, but the Hawks played worse.

 

[tzill]

Atlanta is a bad team without Al Horford. Josh Smith was trying to do too much, and Teague is average, at best. Neither team played well, but the Hawks played worse.

Horford out was definitely a factor, but the W's turned the ball over 23 times! That was the worst ballhandling of the season by far. Barnes blew up in that game, IIRC, and we made our free throws. And we hammered them on the glass.

Still, that will probably end up being the weirdest win of the season.

 

[tzill]

Re: the record.

They're 15-7. The next 5 are fairly soft (save the game at ATL). Let's say they go to 19-8. After that, they play the hardest part of their schedule over the next 14 games.

Those 14:

Likely wins (3): LAL, POR, @ NO
Likely losses (3): @UTA, @LAC, @SA
Either way (8): PHI, BOS, LAC, MEM, @DEN, MIA, LAC, OKC

That would bring us to the halfway point of the season. If they can go 7-7, I think they'll be just fine. That'd put them at .634 ball and on pace for 52 wins. Last year, .634 would've been a 3 seed. The year before, a 5 seed.