prisco's review of coaches film

[TobyTyler]

You've got to think the Lions are the favorites now, but if GB can even go 2-2 through the next four, they're in ok shape. With Rodgers, they should be favored in the last three games. That November 28 game between the two could be very important. And without Rodgers, I've got to think the Lions will win it.

I worry that you may be right and the packers will edge the 49ers out for that last playoff spot.

 

[TobyTyler]

The AJ Jenkins miss is a pretty serious blow. Think about how much better this offense could be with a TY Hilton or Chris Givens. That's the sort of player we desperately need.

Still can't figure out what they were thinking with jenkins.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

What I fear though is that since we have the league's worst pass offense and depend on the running game that the Saints will try to use their good pass defense to cover one on one with our receivers and stack the box with 8 and 9 men to stop the run. With that many in the box, just about any NFL team can stop the run. Our passing game, especially if Davis does not play, is that big of a liability.

If Davis doesn't play, it's game over. But I think he will. I'm very interested to see if we can run. Kind of hoping we don't defer if we win the coin toss. The last thing we need is to go down by seven early....

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I worry that you may be right and the packers will edge the 49ers out for that last playoff spot.

Head-to-head is the first tie-breaker, though, so we've really got a two-game lead on the Packers as it is. The Panthers are the bigger threat IMO, part of why that loss was fairly significant. Frankly, best-case scenario for us would probably be to beat the Saints and then hope they get swept by the Panthers.

Well, best case would be for Seattle to lose out, but I don't see that happening....

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Still can't figure out what they were thinking with jenkins.

He had elite speed, was smooth, and looked like he could be a real deep threat. I think his problems were the sort that are hard to predict. It's still galling, though. I liked Jeffery among the WRs at that spot. It would be really nice to have him now.

 

[whysies]

What I fear though is that since we have the league's worst pass offense and depend on the running game that the Saints will try to use their good pass defense to cover one on one with our receivers and stack the box with 8 and 9 men to stop the run. With that many in the box, just about any NFL team can stop the run. Our passing game, especially if Davis does not play, is that big of a liability.

Definitely agree that no Davis is a huge blow.

But, if they're going to put 9 in the box and play man on Boldin I think it might be week 1 all over again.

 

[TobyTyler]

If Davis doesn't play, it's game over. But I think he will. I'm very interested to see if we can run. Kind of hoping we don't defer if we win the coin toss. The last thing we need is to go down by seven early....

Agreed. they don't want to get down early. Although I am very worried about this game, the 49ers have won the last two times they played the Saints and the Saints were favored in both of those games. I almost prefer to watch games that the 49ers are supposed to lose. Then its all gravy if they win.

 

[TobyTyler]

Definitely agree that no Davis is a huge blow.

But, if they're going to put 9 in the box and play man on Boldin I think it might be week 1 all over again.

Actually I think Man coverage is where Boldin struggles because of his lack of speed. Against a zone he excels at finding the soft spot to settle in and is very effective. I noticed that in the Seattle and Indy games where they manned up on the 49er receivers and Boldin was almost invisible.

Where Man coverage might help the 49ers though is with kaepernick. Its pretty tough to disguise coverages and confuse him when you are playing man to man.

 

[whysies]

Actually I think Man coverage is where Boldin struggles because of his lack of speed. Against a zone he excels at finding the soft spot to settle in and is very effective. I noticed that in the Seattle and Indy games where they manned up on the 49er receivers and Boldin was almost invisible.

Where Man coverage might help the 49ers though is with kaepernick. Its pretty tough to disguise coverages and confuse him when you are playing man to man.

Fair, I do think Boldin is better in zone coverage. I was thinking that 1 on 1 he might be able to out muscle whoever is on him (assuming not a Seahawks type corner) but I admit that I clearly didn't know how good the Saints defense was. I haven't really watched them this year and I just checked and they are 3rd against the pass. I assume their secondary must be better than I thought.

 

[TobyTyler]

He had elite speed, was smooth, and looked like he could be a real deep threat. I think his problems were the sort that are hard to predict. It's still galling, though. I liked Jeffery among the WRs at that spot. It would be really nice to have him now.

I had never even heard of Jenkins nor heard him mentioned as possible first round material. Just the fact that he was a receiver in the archaic passing games of the Big 10 schools would have scared me off. Do any receivers come out of the Big 10 anymore? I can think of two huge duds in Ginn and Jenkins.

 

[TobyTyler]

Fair, I do think Boldin is better in zone coverage. I was thinking that 1 on 1 he might be able to out muscle whoever is on him (assuming not a Seahawks type corner) but I admit that I clearly didn't know how good the Saints defense was. I haven't really watched them this year and I just checked and they are 3rd against the pass. I assume their secondary must be better than I thought.

Now that much is true. And I meant to include that in my post that most of his catches in Man coverage come because he fights for the ball. As for the Saints secondary, at least we won't see Vacarro on Sunday.

 

[Kinzu]

Honestly Kaep had time to throw, and it should be easy to beat a team so heavily stacking the box against you.

Our inability to throw the ball made Carolina look a lot better than they really are.

 

[Pharcyde]

If Davis doesn't play, it's game over. But I think he will. I'm very interested to see if we can run. Kind of hoping we don't defer if we win the coin toss. The last thing we need is to go down by seven early....

Hope VD is extra motivated to prove he's just as elite as graham is at the te position! Could be fun to watch those two specifically on Sunday

 

[Kinzu]

Hope VD is extra motivated to prove he's just as elite as graham is at the te position! Could be fun to watch those two specifically on Sunday

Well it will be pretty sad if we lose. We beat a better Saints in the 2012 playoffs with probably a worst offense if anything a very similar offense. You could say our defense was better back then though.

We beat them 31-21 last year in their house with Kaep at QB. It should be a similar result assuming our offense breaks out of their funk.

 

[Pharcyde]

Well it will be pretty sad if we lose. We beat a better Saints in the 2012 playoffs with probably a worst offense if anything a very similar offense. You could say our defense was better back then though.

We beat them 31-21 last year in their house with Kaep at QB. It should be a similar result assuming our offense breaks out of their funk.

Saints defense is a lot more dynamic this year then last. Gonna be a tough task to shut down Bree's nd his arsenal.

I'm hoping for a win rather than expecting it

 

[threelittleturds]

Saints defense is a lot more dynamic this year then last. Gonna be a tough task to shut down Bree's nd his arsenal.

I'm hoping for a win rather than expecting it

2012 Saints gave up 7.4 YPA in the passing game and 5.2 YPC in the running game.
2013 Saints are giving up 5.5 YPA in the passing game and 5.0 YPC in the running game.

I only see a significant improvement in their pass defense, not sure how that benefits them against the 49ers and their 4.5 YPC rushing offense. Do the 49ers win on the ground or through the air? Oh, is it on the ground? Interesting. Seems like the Saints are vulnerable when a running team can chip away on the ground and produce long drives against a weak front seven, thus reducing the number of drives where Brees can kill them.

If the 49ers, as a run first offense, can't beat a team giving up 5 yards per carry on the ground... meh... no excuse is acceptable.

 

[CalamityX11]

I actually read that article Yoss provided lol...

Hey Kap, don't open your mouth next time... do you know your own progressions?

 

[bvanthielriceyoung]

 

[bvanthielriceyoung]

Colin Kaepernick has been accurate on just 46.2% of passes under pressure this year. It was 71.2% last season.
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 15, 2013

 

[CalamityX11]

Hey Kap, again, do you know your own progressions?

Boldin and MM nearly hug each other in the endzone and no panther around......

he's a 1 lock man.... we knew this before but damn......