Playoff Picture

[Fountain City Blues]

well, really, the chiefs season from here will depend on how they adjust to what offenses are doing to them over the past month. o-coordinators started to figure out that the way to beat the aggressive, up-field chiefs defense is to run the ball and implement a quick, short passing game. and it's working. the chiefs gave up about 460 yards a game during november.

whether hali/houston are healthy really doesn't matter at this point because they have been non-factors for a month. the chiefs need to re-think their defense or teams will continue doing this to them. and all 5 of the chiefs remaining opponents have proven they can run the ball and/or implement a successful short, quick passing game. which is why i say i could easily see them only winning 1 of their remaining games. if they can't be successful in their adjustments on defense, they are in trouble.

I agree and disagree on some of the things said in your post:

Non-factors? Absolutely not, they were getting a substantial amount of pressure on Rivers and were being chipped constantly prior to injury. Hali and Houston being non-factors in November is not what the play-calling, the chips on Hali and Houston, and pressures indicate at all.

Yes, of course adjustments are needed, and unless Sutton is awful at his job, he should be able to do it with the plethora of talent at his disposal regardless of the absence of Houston. It is well documented the crossing routes/picks have been used to exploit the rookie Cooper and the terribad angles from whoever is playing safety not named Eric Berry.

Can't stop the run? Seems rather questionable. Outside of the Redskins, none of the opponents on the upcoming schedule have proven that they can run the ball against the Chiefs. Even in the defensive meltdown against the Chargers, the YPCA is 3.9 with Hali and Houston being superior run defenders to Zombo and Moses as well as DeVito not being present due to injury as well. Granted, the YPC given up to RB's this year is right around 4.0, but outside of Spiller (Buff), McCoy (Phi), and Jackson (Buff), who has blown up this Run D in any way, shape, or form? The answer would be nobody on a consistent basis. This tells me that unless you have well above average to elite backs and/or a mobile QB, you can't run the ball for a respectable or consistent YPC against the Chiefs.

Short passing Game is the biggy, the YAC quite frankly, is out of control. It was somewhat understandable against Denver ( in fact, they held them to their lowest point total at home this season) given how successful they have been throwing the ball this season, but it does get on my nerves to see a simple Crossing/Mesh play go 20 yards. My only objection to this premise is almost all the QB's on the schedule, with the exception of Manning and Rivers, are highly questionable right now. The soft zone against Buffalo made some deal of sense (and worked, look at the points allowed:13) given the QB was an UDFAR. With all of this being said, I doubt KC "stops" Denver regardless unless they force turnovers (or Denver does it to themselves as they did in NE).

RG3's problems are well documented, if anything, he has proven he can't throw the ball worth a crap if he can't run.

Mcgloin is no known commodity, period. However, Mcgloin does look somewhat competent so far with an awful O-line and very meh receivers.

Luck (and the Colts in general) haven't looked anything like the team that beat the Broncos just a few short weeks ago, and quite frankly, they look awful all around... including Luck. Additionally, this game would be in Arrowhead with Houston more than likely healthy. It seems rather questionable to say Luck will tear up the Chiefs Defense when he didn't even come close to doing that last year against a 2-14 team that isn't nearly up to par with its cousin in 2013.


While I agree with that if the Defense can't adjust, then the team will have a hard time winning games ( would probably be a fireable offense given the amount of talent on the Defense and stubborn coaching) I don't agree that Hali, and Houston in November was irrelevant at all. I certainly don't agree the offenses outside of SD, Den, and MAYBE Washington if RG3 looks like 2012 RG3 can put up points (yards are rather irrelevant in the end) on the Chiefs defense.

 

[CaptainStubing]

I agree and disagree on some of the things said in your post:

Non-factors? Absolutely not, they were getting a substantial amount of pressure on Rivers and were being chipped constantly prior to injury. Hali and Houston being non-factors in November is not what the play-calling, the chips on Hali and Houston, and pressures indicate at all.

Yes, of course adjustments are needed, and unless Sutton is awful at his job, he should be able to do it with the plethora of talent at his disposal regardless of the absence of Houston. It is well documented the crossing routes/picks have been used to exploit the rookie Cooper and the terribad angles from whoever is playing safety not named Eric Berry.

Can't stop the run? Seems rather questionable. Outside of the Redskins, none of the opponents on the upcoming schedule have proven that they can run the ball against the Chiefs. Even in the defensive meltdown against the Chargers, the YPCA is 3.9 with Hali and Houston being superior run defenders to Zombo and Moses as well as DeVito not being present due to injury as well. Granted, the YPC given up to RB's this year is right around 4.0, but outside of Spiller (Buff), McCoy (Phi), and Jackson (Buff), who has blown up this Run D in any way, shape, or form? The answer would be nobody on a consistent basis. This tells me that unless you have well above average to elite backs and/or a mobile QB, you can't run the ball for a respectable or consistent YPC against the Chiefs.

Short passing Game is the biggy, the YAC quite frankly, is out of control. It was somewhat understandable against Denver ( in fact, they held them to their lowest point total at home this season) given how successful they have been throwing the ball this season, but it does get on my nerves to see a simple Crossing/Mesh play go 20 yards. My only objection to this premise is almost all the QB's on the schedule, with the exception of Manning and Rivers, are highly questionable right now. The soft zone against Buffalo made some deal of sense (and worked, look at the points allowed:13) given the QB was an UDFAR. With all of this being said, I doubt KC "stops" Denver regardless unless they force turnovers (or Denver does it to themselves as they did in NE).

RG3's problems are well documented, if anything, he has proven he can't throw the ball worth a crap if he can't run.

Mcgloin is no known commodity, period. However, Mcgloin does look somewhat competent so far with an awful O-line and very meh receivers.

Luck (and the Colts in general) haven't looked anything like the team that beat the Broncos just a few short weeks ago, and quite frankly, they look awful all around... including Luck. Additionally, this game would be in Arrowhead with Houston more than likely healthy. It seems rather questionable to say Luck will tear up the Chiefs Defense when he didn't even come close to doing that last year against a 2-14 team that isn't nearly up to par with its cousin in 2013.


While I agree with that if the Defense can't adjust, then the team will have a hard time winning games ( would probably be a fireable offense given the amount of talent on the Defense and stubborn coaching) I don't agree that Hali, and Houston in November was irrelevant at all. I certainly don't agree the offenses outside of SD, Den, and MAYBE Washington if RG3 looks like 2012 RG3 can put up points (yards are rather irrelevant in the end) on the Chiefs defense.

you make some fair points.

i want to point out that the chiefs are giving up 4.6 ypc this season, among the worst in the league. i'm not sure where you got 4.0 number.

and, you are correct, the Chiefs should not be worried about RG3, McGloin, and Luck (to a certain extent). However, they should be worried about Morris, Jennings, and Brown, who are all running very well and could easily take over a ballgame with the way the chiefs are scheming their defense.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

you make some fair points.

i want to point out that the chiefs are giving up 4.6 ypc this season, among the worst in the league. i'm not sure where you got 4.0 number.

and, you are correct, the Chiefs should not be worried about RG3, McGloin, and Luck (to a certain extent). However, they should be worried about Morris, Jennings, and Brown, who are all running very well and could easily take over a ballgame with the way the chiefs are scheming their defense.

The 4.0 number is to RB's. The 4.6 includes QB rushing which has been an issue for KC which I noted in the previous post about elite, well above average, or mobile QB's presenting a problem for KC's run D. (which is a lot more relevant than the 4.6 when playing teams such as Denver and SD, but not irrelevant against say Washington and Indy.)

 

[CaptainStubing]

The 4.0 number is to RB's. The 4.6 includes QB rushing which has been an issue for KC which I noted in the previous post about elite, well above average, or mobile QB's presenting a problem for KC's run D. (which is a lot more relevant than the 4.6 when playing teams such as Denver and SD, but not irrelevant against say Washington and Indy.)

where do you get that stat? i don't remember qb's torching the chiefs week after week with their legs. that would be the only thing that would skew that number that much.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

where do you get that stat? i don't remember qb's torching the chiefs week after week with their legs. that would be the only thing that would skew that number that much.

I calculated it based on ESPN box scores and did so with every single + a WR (BotchedWildcat QB scramble?) rushing attempt on the season. Once I subtracted the yardage and attempts, it went from a horrendous 5.0 YPC (at the time I did it) to 4.23. Basically, it was just a matter of getting rid of pointless rushing numbers depending on the circumstances. It's not Cherry picking either if you say go up against Peyton Manning who is a non threat running the ball ( in fact, his only rushing TD was because it was so shocking). And yes, the prime offenders to inflating that YPC as QB's are Vick and Pryor with Fitzpatrick and others putting a dent in as well.

Vick 99 YDs 24.8 YPC

Pryor 56 YDs 8.0

Fitzpatrick 50 YDs 8.3

And several other similar games in the 30-50 YD range for even semi-mobile QB's for YPCs often well above 4. You can do this for yourself as well if you wish. There are the minimal scramble attempts by QB's such as Eli Manning and Romo, but it all adds up as it turns out for QB rushing.

TLDR; basically cutting out the fat in a basic division problem. (10-4)/2=3

 

[Fountain City Blues]

With that being said, I will need to add in the results of the Chargers game and see how it jives right now. I have yet to update it. I wouldn't go through the trouble of using ESPN box scores for anything were it not for me being unable to find a YPC to RB statistic.

 

[cdumler7]

I calculated it based on ESPN box scores and did so with every single + a WR (BotchedWildcat QB scramble?) rushing attempt on the season. Once I subtracted the yardage and attempts, it went from a horrendous 5.0 YPC (at the time I did it) to 4.23. Basically, it was just a matter of getting rid of pointless rushing numbers depending on the circumstances. It's not Cherry picking either if you say go up against Peyton Manning who is a non threat running the ball ( in fact, his only rushing TD was because it was so shocking). And yes, the prime offenders to inflating that YPC as QB's are Vick and Pryor with Fitzpatrick and others putting a dent in as well.

Vick 99 YDs 24.8 YPC

Pryor 56 YDs 8.0

Fitzpatrick 50 YDs 8.3

And several other similar games in the 30-50 YD range for even semi-mobile QB's for YPCs often well above 4. You can do this for yourself as well if you wish. There are the minimal scramble attempts by QB's such as Eli Manning and Romo, but it all adds up as it turns out for QB rushing.

TLDR; basically cutting out the fat in a basic division problem. (10-4)/2=3

Shouldn't that stat about quarterbacks worry the Chiefs though with guys like RGIII and Luck (both very good runners in this league at the quarterback position) coming up that have caused this very aggressive Chiefs defense to struggle at times? Plus the two quarterbacks that have beat the Chiefs are still left as well in Manning and Rivers.

Honestly this Chiefs defense reminds me quite a bit of the Broncos defense last year. The Broncos lived by the pass rush and died by the pass rush. Elite quarterbacks knew to get rid of the football quickly to eliminate our best player Von Miller and that if the OL held up against the pass rush we were vulnerable to the big play. The games the Broncos lost were the ones that the aggressiveness of the defense took a few too many gambles and lost. At the same time though when it is all clicking it is almost impossible to do much against the defense.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Shouldn't that stat about quarterbacks worry the Chiefs though with guys like RGIII and Luck (both very good runners in this league at the quarterback position) coming up that have caused this very aggressive Chiefs defense to struggle at times? Plus the two quarterbacks that have beat the Chiefs are still left as well in Manning and Rivers.

Honestly this Chiefs defense reminds me quite a bit of the Broncos defense last year. The Broncos lived by the pass rush and died by the pass rush. Elite quarterbacks knew to get rid of the football quickly to eliminate our best player Von Miller and that if the OL held up against the pass rush we were vulnerable to the big play. The games the Broncos lost were the ones that the aggressiveness of the defense took a few too many gambles and lost. At the same time though when it is all clicking it is almost impossible to do much against the defense.

Absolutely it should concern the Chiefs against a team like Washington, as they have not proven to be able to contain Very good RBs and/or mobile QB's (both in this example) in any way, shape or form. My point though is that there is a need to separate the two numbers because there is a stark difference from a Cam Newton compared to a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.

Edited for clarity.

 

[CaptainStubing]

I calculated it based on ESPN box scores and did so with every single + a WR (BotchedWildcat QB scramble?) rushing attempt on the season. Once I subtracted the yardage and attempts, it went from a horrendous 5.0 YPC (at the time I did it) to 4.23. Basically, it was just a matter of getting rid of pointless rushing numbers depending on the circumstances. It's not Cherry picking either if you say go up against Peyton Manning who is a non threat running the ball ( in fact, his only rushing TD was because it was so shocking). And yes, the prime offenders to inflating that YPC as QB's are Vick and Pryor with Fitzpatrick and others putting a dent in as well.

Vick 99 YDs 24.8 YPC

Pryor 56 YDs 8.0

Fitzpatrick 50 YDs 8.3

And several other similar games in the 30-50 YD range for even semi-mobile QB's for YPCs often well above 4. You can do this for yourself as well if you wish. There are the minimal scramble attempts by QB's such as Eli Manning and Romo, but it all adds up as it turns out for QB rushing.

TLDR; basically cutting out the fat in a basic division problem. (10-4)/2=3

ah, ok. i didn't know if it was a stat on some site or something.

i guess if i was playing devils advocate, i would suggest that QB runs should be included in a teams' rush defense stats, as many offenses rely on designed qb runs along with qb-improvised runs as part of their rushing attack and it is the defenses' job to also limit the qb runs and not allow 8 yards a carry.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

ah, ok. i didn't know if it was a stat on some site or something.

i guess if i was playing devils advocate, i would suggest that QB runs should be included in a teams' rush defense stats, as many offenses rely on designed qb runs along with qb-improvised runs as part of their rushing attack and it is the defenses' job to also limit the qb runs and not allow 8 yards a carry.

You are correct, but at the same time, does anyone think Peyton Manning is going to be a serious threat to run for 50+ yards? A standard YPC is appropriate against a team like Washington where there is no hiding if you are the Chiefs; they just suck in that situation. It seems a bit fallacious though to use a standard YPC against say Denver for the simple fact that Peyton Manning is non-threat( gee, that is strange to say, "non-threat and Peyton Manning") when it comes to running the ball.

Edit: I think it is just depends on which team you go up against. A balance certainly needs to be made.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Maybe I could make a spreadsheet for this with all 32 teams if I still can't find a site that separates YPC to RB's and QB's. Wouldn't be too difficult since ESPN tends to separate the distribution of carries and yards in their boxscores.

 

[cdumler7]

Absolutely it should concern the Chiefs against a team like Washington, as they have not proven to be able to contain Very good RBs and/or mobile QB's (both in this example) in any way, shape or form. My point though is that there is a need to separate the two numbers because there is a stark difference from a Cam Newton compared to a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.

Edited for clarity.

I agree totally. I will say though Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers are the two best quarterbacks the Chiefs have faced all year and they have definitely taken advantage of that Chiefs secondary. It is still one of the better ones in the league but definitely going to have to see Sutton make adjustments now that teams have figured out how to attack this defense (although not sure how much San Diego figured out things until Hali and Houston were both gone).

Very interested for sure to see how Sutton with at least Houston missing and at best Hali with a little hitch in his giddy up of how they try to play Peyton this time around. Also very interested to see how the run defense does now that one of their best run defenders Houston and their best run defender DeVito possibly misses this game.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I agree totally. I will say though Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers are the two best quarterbacks the Chiefs have faced all year and they have definitely taken advantage of that Chiefs secondary. It is still one of the better ones in the league but definitely going to have to see Sutton make adjustments now that teams have figured out how to attack this defense (although not sure how much San Diego figured out things until Hali and Houston were both gone).

Very interested for sure to see how Sutton with at least Houston missing and at best Hali with a little hitch in his giddy up of how they try to play Peyton this time around. Also very interested to see how the run defense does now that one of their best run defenders Houston and their best run defender DeVito possibly misses this game.

I would honestly be pretty pissed if Sutton couldn't make adjustments (apparently stubbornness was a criticism of his when he was in NY?) with the supposed resources that are at his disposal, but it is plausible that the potential loss of Devito could cause a problem for the Run D against Denver. That much is conceivable, but I guess we will find out on Sunday.

 

[cdumler7]

I would honestly be pretty pissed if Sutton couldn't make adjustments (apparently stubbornness was a criticism of his when he was in NY?) with the supposed resources that are at his disposal, but it is plausible that the potential loss of Devito could cause a problem for the Run D against Denver. That much in conceivable, but I guess we will find out on Sunday.

Very much will. Both teams seem a little banged up right now so very interested to see how much injuries play into this game. The Broncos had 5 players miss practice on Wednesday with another 4-5 who were limited. All of them practiced in some capacity today but how many actually play and at what level is definitely up in the air.

 

[MHSL82]

AFC Playbook Stat (NFL Network): The Chiefs are the 7th team to lose back-to-back games after starting 9-0. 3 of the previous 6 won the Super Bowl.

Not sure if any of the other three made but lost the SB or missed the playoffs.

 

[CaptainStubing]

I would honestly be pretty pissed if Sutton couldn't make adjustments (apparently stubbornness was a criticism of his when he was in NY?) with the supposed resources that are at his disposal, but it is plausible that the potential loss of Devito could cause a problem for the Run D against Denver. That much is conceivable, but I guess we will find out on Sunday.

Well, Sutton didn't make adjustments and the chiefs defense got lit up again. The chiefs are in big trouble as long as the chiefs don't adjust

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Well, Sutton didn't make adjustments and the chiefs defense got lit up again. The chiefs are in big trouble as long as the chiefs don't adjust

They actually did, it wasn't good enough against Manning. More A-gap blitzes and got some pressure, albeit inconsistent, but it was better than the last meeting. Denver is a god awful matchup for these DB's, that much is obvious now.

 

[Black Adam]

They actually did, it wasn't good enough against Manning. More A-gap blitzes and got some pressure, albeit inconsistent, but it was better than the last meeting. Denver is a god awful matchup for these DB's, that much is obvious now.

Yep, and Cooper's been pretty much turned into Manning's bitch. Not a pretty sight...

 

[da55bums]

any way we could find a WR, who CAN CATCH THE BALL that could play TE or WR on the other side of Bowe...holy good grief..

the great thing is I think they are actually looking better offensively than they have all season in the last few weeks...besides the vasoline being used too much on hands instead of jersey's.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

any way we could find a WR, who CAN CATCH THE BALL that could play TE or WR on the other side of Bowe...holy good grief..

the great thing is I think they are actually looking better offensively than they have all season in the last few weeks...besides the vasoline being used too much on hands instead of jersey's.

Hey, AJ 'the lurker' Jenkins didn't look half bad when he was in the game. Not bad at all. Time to unleash Jenkins?